Core Viewpoint - OCBC maintains its expectation of three rate cuts in 2023, each by 25 basis points, but delays the first cut from Q2 to Q3 due to the current economic conditions [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase in overall CPI decreasing from 2.4% to 2.3% [2]. - Housing prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to over half of the overall increase, while energy prices rose, offsetting declines in gasoline prices [2]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation in core services, while core goods prices have turned positive with a growth of 0.13% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which is above market expectations but not robust [3]. - The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a gradual easing of labor market tightness, with the job-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 1.02, suggesting potential impacts on unemployment if vacancies continue to decline [3]. Market Expectations - Market concerns about a U.S. recession have significantly eased, with the probability of recession dropping from 65% in early April to 38% currently [4]. - Interest rate futures reflect a cooling of rate cut expectations, with only 54 basis points of cuts priced in for the year, down from over 100 basis points in April [4]. - The expectation for a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting has been fully priced out, with only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [4]. Treasury Yield Predictions - OCBC has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields due to the delayed rate cut expectations and improved market sentiment, but maintains a medium-term outlook of moderate decline [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the U.S. economy is not in a full recession, there are clear signs of slowing growth and persistent core inflation [5]. - Future economic data will be closely monitored, particularly regarding labor market conditions and service inflation, which could trigger policy adjustments [5].

美联储戴利：经济稳健增长，劳动力市场稳健，通胀率下降，这正是我们希望达到的目标。目前的货币 政策能够应对经济中的各种变化，耐心是当下的关键词。 ...

步入2025年，美国经济正处于复杂多变的十字路口，一系列关键指标和潜在因素相互交织，描绘出一幅充满韧性却也面临诸多挑战的经济图景。深入剖析美 国经济现状，能为洞察全球经济走向提供关键视角。 增长态势：稳健中显露分化 近年来，美国经济增长展现出一定韧性。2024年第三季度，实际国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长率达2.8%，虽较第二季度的3%有所下滑，但仍彰显出经济 的稳定扩张趋势。消费者支出作为经济增长的关键驱动力，在高利率和谨慎情绪影响下，增长步伐有所放缓。不过，科技与医疗保健等部分行业表现亮眼， 为经济增长注入活力。 从地域维度看，经济复苏呈现不均衡态势。城市中心凭借多元化产业结构和强大创新活力，迅速从疫情冲击中反弹；而部分农村地区及小城市，因投资不 足、就业机会创造缓慢，仍在艰难爬坡。这种地域发展差距，凸显出制定针对性政策，推动经济全面复苏的紧迫性。 通胀形势：降温但依旧高企 劳动力参与率仍低于疫情前水平，特别是老年劳动者与家庭照料者群体。美国商会数据显示，尽管当前就业人数多于疫情前，但劳动力占总人口比例下降。 目前美国有800万个职位空缺，而失业人数仅680万，若劳动力参与率恢复至2020年2月水平，将新 ...

美联储副主席杰斐逊：劳动力市场仍然坚挺。 ...

德勤首席经济学家Ian Stewart在给客户的一份研究报告中写道，英国就业市场放缓的迹象可能会促使今 年晚些时候进一步降息。Stewart表示，在失业率上升和职位空缺减少的情况下，持续强劲的薪资上涨 是一个亮点。"但由于雇主在招聘方面持谨慎态度，失业率可能会继续上升，而薪资增长将开始放 缓，"他说。"劳动力市场走弱可能会强化今年晚些时候进一步降息的理由。" ...

美联储理事库格勒：鉴于疫情后劳动力市场非常紧张，许多企业不愿意裁员。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：通胀回落的进展已放缓。劳动力市场状况基本保持稳定。 ...

英国央行货币政策委员格林：劳动力市场出现一些疲软迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The process of combating inflation is currently underway, but persistent indicators of inflation remain too high [1] Group 1: Inflation Indicators - Persistent indicators of inflation are still elevated, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, which may impact inflation dynamics [1] Group 2: Consumer Sensitivity - Households may be more sensitive to inflation, suggesting potential changes in consumer behavior and spending patterns [1]

Domestic News - The People's Bank of China released the monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2025 [1] - Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to study and implement President Xi Jinping's important speech on economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and discussed measures to deepen the reform and innovation of national-level economic and technological development zones [1] - The central bank established a re-lending program for service consumption and elderly care with a quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at encouraging financial institutions to increase support for key sectors such as accommodation, catering, cultural and sports entertainment, and education [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the legislative work plan for 2025 to maintain stable and healthy market development and protect the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium investors [1] - The China Futures Association strengthened the management of futures intermediaries and standardized their behavior [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange modified trading rules and published settlement rules for the first time [1] - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments adjusted management measures related to special customs supervision areas, bonded supervision places, and processing trade outside the zones [1] International News - ECB Governing Council member Simkus stated that a rate cut in June is necessary for the European Central Bank [2] - Japan is considering exporting next-generation jet fighters developed jointly with Australia, the UK, and Italy [2] - India requested the US to eliminate all current and future tariffs, proposing to reduce the tariff gap with the US from nearly 13% to less than 4% under a potential trade agreement [2] - Fed Governor Barr indicated that the Federal Reserve may face difficulties if inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously [2] - Fed Governor Kugler noted that the labor market may be approaching full employment [4] - Fed officials announced that regular operations of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) are forthcoming [4] - Von der Leyen mentioned a potential visit to the US if a specific trade agreement is reached [4]