今日周一(11月17日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于12005一线下方，今日开盘于12220元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11956元/千克，下跌3.89%，最高触及12251元/千克，最低下探11854元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美联储洛根周五再次暗示，她将反对美联储在12月份降息，此前她曾反对美联储在10月份降息，因为她 担心通胀过高，趋向上升，要达到美联储的2%目标需要太长时间。 另外备受关注的10月美国非农就业报告将于周四发布，随后是周三的FOMC纪要。这反过来将在影响短 期美元价格动态并为贵金属提供一些有意义的推动力方面发挥关键作用。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银经过上周刷新高点，最高在12660附近，目前收盘在12000之上，本周在确定低点后继续看涨，不管 是震荡上行还是单边走高，上周预计目标在12500，银溢价扩大至340元/克，沪银情绪依旧偏强。 洛根称"当我展望12月会议时，我认为很难支持再次降息，除非我们有令人信服的证据表明通胀下降的 速度确实快于我的预期，或者我们看到劳动力市场不只是逐渐降温。" 洛根强调，政 ...

基本面： 周一（11月17日）亚市早盘，白银价格震荡微涨，周一开盘后白银随着黄金震荡。市场关注美联储官员讲话，达拉斯联储主席洛根的立场同样强硬，她在同 一场合重申，通胀水平不仅过高，还呈现上升趋势，距离2%的目标还有漫长的路要走。除非本周涌现出"令人信服"的证据显示通胀降速超预期，或劳动力 市场降温加速，否则她难以支持进一步降息。洛根虽无投票权，但她的声音在政策辩论中影响力巨大，她认为当前就业市场的渐进式冷却正是美联储希望看 到的"合适"节奏，无需额外"先发制人"的保险措施来搅局。这些鹰派信号如雪上加霜，让市场对12月降息的预期从周初的60%以上直线滑落至不足46%， 这种不确定性对黄金的影响是毁灭性的。非孳息资产如黄金，本就依赖低利率环境来绽放光芒，一旦美联储的"暂停键"按下，机会成本陡增，资金便会从金 市外流。，正是这种预期转变，削弱了黄金和白银的涨势，导致周五盘中金价一度下探3%以上。，这波抛售如"势不可挡的潮水"，席卷了金属、股市，凸 显了短期情绪对央行信号的极度敏感。尽管如此，Welsh也提醒，黄金过去一年的累计涨幅已逾30%，其结构性支撑——宏观风险、地缘动荡、中央银行囤 积需求——仍牢不可破，短 ...

澳大利亚国民银行经济学家泰勒·纽金特在评论中称，这些官员仍对美联储在12月降息的可能性持怀疑 态度。他指出，达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，除非出现令人信服的证据显示通胀加速下行或劳动力市场降 温幅度超过预期，否则适度的限制性政策是合适的。 纽金特补充称，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德也指出，进一步降息可能更倾向于助推通胀顽固而非支撑劳动 力市场。 LSEG数据显示，美元兑韩元上涨0.6%至1456.60，澳元兑美元下跌0.2%至0.6524。 来源：环球市场播报 亚洲货币周一早盘多数兑美元下跌，上周五美联储官员的鹰派言论持续施压。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector remains positive, suggesting further investment opportunities despite significant growth already observed [1]. Core Insights - The global economic team estimates the potential capital gains value of AI to be as high as $8 trillion, indicating that further investment is justified [3]. - The current AI investment cycle is believed to be in its early stages, with the market value of AI-related companies having surpassed the $8 trillion estimate since the end of 2022 [3]. - There are no significant signs of a macro bubble similar to the 1990s tech bubble, as the increase in AI-driven investment spending has been modest and short-lived [6]. - The financial health of corporate sectors is stable, with a steady U.S. current account deficit and narrow credit spreads, suggesting a lack of immediate risk for market adjustments [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to remain stable in the coming months, with no recession anticipated, and the Federal Reserve likely to adopt more accommodative policies [9]. - By early 2026, the growth outlook is expected to be more optimistic, which should positively impact stock market performance [9]. Labor Market and Policy Considerations - The labor market will be a key macro issue to monitor in 2026, as its stability could reduce expectations of downside risks [10]. - The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair and the composition of the 2026 FOMC will also be critical in determining policy direction and uncertainty [10]. Investment Strategies - Protective positions or strategies that capture upside exposure while limiting downside risk are recommended to navigate potential market volatility [7]. - If economic prosperity continues and debt usage increases, there may be an expansion in credit spreads, providing exposure to credit issuance stories and downside risks in the real economy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials generally agree that the labor market has cooled, but opinions vary on whether this slowdown will worsen. Some express optimism about price pressures, while others warn that current interest rates have a weak suppressive effect on the economy, and further rate cuts could risk the progress of returning inflation to target [1][2][20]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - After successfully securing support for rate cuts in the last two meetings, Powell acknowledged that another cut is not guaranteed. Several officials, including regional Fed presidents, have indicated they will not support a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [2][4]. - Market expectations shifted dramatically, with traders betting on a pause in policy after the Fed's October 29 announcement of a rate cut. However, by the following Friday, the probability of another cut had dropped to 40% [2][4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions on Rate Cuts - Opponents of further rate cuts emphasize two main points: first, the slowdown in U.S. job growth may reflect changes in immigration policy and technology rather than a severe decline in labor demand; second, inflation risks include not only tariffs but also resilient overall consumer demand, which undermines the Fed's credibility [6][7]. - Officials like Schmid and Logan have expressed concerns that further rate cuts may not alleviate labor market pressures and could have lasting negative effects on inflation targets [8][9][10]. Group 3: Doves vs. Hawks - The dovish camp has not conceded, with members like newly appointed Fed governor Stephen Milan advocating for rapid and significant rate cuts to avoid potential harm to the labor market. Milan argues that current rates are too high and that data supports a more dovish stance [12][13]. - Other officials, such as Waller and Bowman, remain more concerned about the labor market than inflation, thus supporting rate cuts [16]. Group 4: Current Economic Climate - The Fed is currently in a challenging position, with Powell acknowledging significant divisions among officials regarding the December rate cut. This complexity makes it difficult to achieve reasonable policy outcomes [20][21]. - Analysts suggest that the current policy debate may foreshadow a divided voting landscape in the future, particularly under a Fed chair appointed by Trump [21].

美联储鹰派官员包括堪萨斯城联储主席施密德、波士顿联储主席柯林斯、达拉斯联储主席洛根反对降息，担心通胀回升和美联储抗通胀公信力受损。鸽派 阵营中美联储理事米兰仍力挺降息。截至周五，12月美联储降息概率已跌至4成。 美联储官员们普遍认同劳动力市场已经降温，但对于放缓是否会进一步加剧看法不一。而且，尽管有一部分人对物价压力持乐观态度，另一些人则警告 称，目前的利率水平对经济的抑制作用微弱，进一步降息可能让通胀回到目标的进程面临风险。 市场预期急转，交易员押注政策暂停。在美联储10月29日宣布降息后，尽管鲍威尔鹰派发言，但市场依旧连续数周看好12月会继续降息。然而截至周 五，降息概率已跌至4成。 美联储内部一部分决策者近日加大了对通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的警告力度，使得12月再次降息的前景蒙上阴影，也暴露出美联储内部日益加深的分 歧。 鹰派官员齐发声，降息门槛被抬高 这些反对降息者强调两个观点。 媒体分析指出，美联储官员们的这种公开争论并不常见。它反映出当前美国经济形势难以判断，也凸显出美联储主席鲍威尔所面临的困境——如何就货 币政策方向凝聚共识。 在过去两次会议成功争取到降息支持后，鲍威尔也承认，再降一次息并非板上 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current policy is criticized for being overly restrictive and backward-looking, with calls for at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [2][4][30] - Recent inflation data has shown improvement, particularly in shelter inflation, which is expected to align more closely with market rents, indicating a dovish stance should be adopted [5][11][12] - There is a concern that the Fed is relying on outdated data, which may lead to delayed policy responses, potentially causing the Fed to fall behind economic changes [21][23][24] Group 2 - The Fed's focus on inflation is seen as myopic, with suggestions that it should also consider labor market conditions and wage growth when making policy decisions [19][20][22] - High-frequency data, such as freight shipments, suggests a different economic reality than what the Fed is currently acknowledging, indicating a need for more timely data analysis [12][20] - The relationship between Fed rate cuts and mortgage rates is emphasized, with expectations that rate cuts will lead to lower mortgage rates, impacting housing affordability [30][31] Group 3 - The discussion includes the potential impact of immigration on inflation, with the argument that increased immigration without sufficient housing supply has contributed to rising rents and inflation [36][37] - The Fed's mandate focuses on stable prices and maximum employment, which may not align with external pressures such as gold and cryptocurrency markets [34][35] - The overall sentiment is that the Fed needs to adapt its approach to better reflect current economic conditions and avoid being reactive rather than proactive [22][24][27]

美联储内部一部分决策者近日加大了对通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的警告力度，使得12月再次降息的前 景蒙上阴影，也暴露出美联储内部日益加深的分歧。 美联储官员们普遍认同劳动力市场已经降温，但对于放缓是否会进一步加剧看法不一。而且，尽管有一 部分人对物价压力持乐观态度，另一些人则警告称，目前的利率水平对经济的抑制作用微弱，进一步降 息可能让通胀回到目标的进程面临风险。 媒体分析指出，美联储官员们的这种公开争论并不常见。它反映出当前美国经济形势难以判断，也凸显 出美联储主席鲍威尔所面临的困境——如何就货币政策方向凝聚共识。 有前美联储官员指出，美联储当前面临一项艰难的决策，每个人都希望明确表达自己的立场，因此会站 出来发声、阐述理由。对于整个委员会和鲍威尔来说，要在这种局面下达成共识确实非常具有挑战性。 在过去两次会议成功争取到降息支持后，鲍威尔也承认，再降一次息并非板上钉钉。促使他作出此番警 告的分歧，近期已公开化，一些官员明确表示，他们不会在12月9–10日的会议上支持降息。 其中包括今年拥有投票权的多个地区联储主席，如堪萨斯城联储主席施密德以及波士顿联储主席柯林 斯，以及明年拥有投票权的达拉斯联储主席洛根。 鹰派 ...

美联储洛根周五再次暗示，她将反对美联储在12月份降息，此前她曾反对美联储在10月份降息，因为她 担心通胀过高，趋向上升，要达到美联储的2%目标需要太长时间。"当我展望12月会议时，我认为很难 支持再次降息，除非我们有令人信服的证据表明通胀下降的速度确实快于我的预期，或者我们看到劳动 力市场不只是逐渐降温，"洛根称。 来源：滚动播报 ...

are getting some breaking news out of the Fed. For that, let's get to Steve Leeman. Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Carl.Yeah, timing is everything. You ask about Schmidt. We got Schmidt here, Kansas City Fed President, uh, who desented at the last meeting, saying monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and that, he says, is where it should be.He suggests in the speech he's about to give his intention to oppose additional cuts again in December. Says he mind could change, but right now, that's the way he's leaning. cu ...