Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chips: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fibers: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various chemical products are complex, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and downstream demand influencing their price trends. Each product has its own unique situation, including both short - term and long - term influencing factors [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. The market news was mixed, with supply - demand dynamics in play. Downstream factories were hesitant, and overall market trading was average [2] - Polyethylene had tight spot resources at the end of the month, with upstream suppliers holding firm on prices. Downstream factories had completed stocking, and market caution persisted. Supply - demand was weakly stable, and prices fluctuated within a range [2] - For polypropylene, international oil prices were strong recently, strengthening cost support. Supply - side device maintenance was high, downstream industry开工 increased, and some factories stocked up before the holiday. The market focused on reducing inventory through cautious price cuts [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene futures fluctuated around 5900 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China declined slightly, and trading volume in Shandong decreased. Overall operation slightly increased, processing margins oscillated at a low level, downstream industries stocked up before the holiday, and port inventories decreased. However, high import volumes and expected future demand decline limited the rebound of pure benzene [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. Jiangsu port inventories increased before the National Day, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years. Downstream rigid demand was stable, but spot demand was weak. Pre - holiday stocking was lower than expected, hindering price increases [3] Polyester - PX's upward momentum weakened, and its valuation declined, releasing negative factors. Crude oil's rebound drove synchronous rebounds in PX and PTA. As the long holiday approached, positions on the futures market were continuously reduced. PTA's profitability improved slightly but remained poor. TA - PX spreads narrowed. The polyester filament market saw a significant increase in sales at the end of the day, fulfilling pre - holiday stocking expectations. However, future supply - demand remained under pressure [5] - Domestic ethylene glycol operation decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to decline. The supply pressure was not significant in reality, but supply - demand was expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Risks included low port inventories and uncertainties in the trial runs of two new devices [5] - Short - fiber new production capacity was limited, production was at a high level, and inventories decreased. The recovery of peak - season demand improved industry expectations. Pre - holiday downstream stocking benefits were realized, and long - short spreads should be exited at high levels [5] - A major bottle - chip device in South China stopped production due to seawater backflow caused by a typhoon, making the bottle - chip trend slightly stronger. Long - term over - capacity was a pressure, and the processing margin recovery space was limited. Attention should be paid to the restart schedule of the stopped device [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports were temporarily low, and the operation of coastal MTO devices increased. Some low - end imported goods flowed to the surrounding inland areas, resulting in port inventory reduction. Pre - holiday downstream stocking demand supported the market, but high port inventories and expected inventory accumulation limited the upward potential of the market. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [6] - After a slight increase in urea prices, downstream follow - up was cautious. Agricultural demand was weak, and industrial compound fertilizer demand was insufficient. Daily production remained high, overall demand was less than supply, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate. The oversupply situation persisted, and the export window was approaching its end. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to have a high - supply and high - inventory pattern. This week's operation increased month - on - month, with new devices being tested and put into mass production, resulting in high supply pressure. Domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking intention was low, and foreign demand was weak. The industry continued to accumulate inventory. Chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and cost support was not obvious. PVC might show a weakening oscillating trend [7] - Caustic soda was in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The downstream demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and inventories continued to increase. Alumina plants had low unloading efficiency, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream customers to receive goods decreased. Device maintenance and restart coexisted, operation fluctuated slightly, and supply continued to be under high pressure. Downstream profits shrank, and there was resistance to high prices. In the short term, Shandong downstream purchases reduced prices, showing a weak reality. However, there might be stocking demand before the future downstream alumina production, and the strong expectation could not be disproven. The futures price might oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was weak during the day. Recently, manufacturers reduced inventory, and supply was at a high level. The photovoltaic industry's fundamentals improved in August, with increased production capacity, driving up the demand for heavy soda ash. However, the photovoltaic industry had cooled down, and the expected increase in heavy soda ash demand was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and opportunities to short at high levels should be sought, but caution was needed near the cost level [8] - Glass weakened during the day. Prices continued to rise today, and manufacturers' overall sales were good. The melting rate was oscillating at a relatively high level. Processing orders improved month - on - month but were still insufficient, and some project orders increased. The actual situation of whether Zhengkang coal - made gas would be centrally used in Shahe should be continuously monitored. In the short term, market sentiment was high, and with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of glass production capacity control, the futures price was expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, if production capacity reduction did not materialize, the market might return to a weak - reality trading pattern [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View On September 25, 2025, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF up 0.83%, IH up 0.5%, IC up 0.45%, and IM down 0.14%. On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased, while those of IH, IC, and IM decreased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Index Futures Data - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The CSI 300 closed at 4593.49, up 0.60%. Among its futures contracts, IF2510 closed at 4585, up 0.83%, with a basis of -8.49; IF2511 closed at 4571.2, up 0.94%, with a basis of -22.29; IF2512 closed at 4562.2, up 0.88%, with a basis of -31.29; IF2603 closed at 4532, up 0.85%, with a basis of -61.49 [1]. - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The SSE 50 closed at 2952.74, up 0.45%. Among its futures contracts, IH2510 closed at 2953.8, up 0.50%, with a basis of 1.06; IH2511 closed at 2951.6, up 0.51%, with a basis of -1.14; IH2512 closed at 2953.6, up 0.52%, with a basis of 0.86; IH2603 closed at 2950.2, up 0.38%, with a basis of -2.54 [1]. - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The CSI 500 closed at 7341.32, up 0.24%. Among its futures contracts, IC2510 closed at 7293.2, up 0.45%, with a basis of -48.12; IC2511 closed at 7218.4, up 0.39%, with a basis of -122.92; IC2512 closed at 7166.6, up 0.43%, with a basis of -174.72; IC2603 closed at 6990.6, up 0.44%, with a basis of -350.72 [1]. - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The CSI 1000 closed at 7506.51, down 0.37%. Among its futures contracts, IM2510 closed at 7444.6, down 0.14%, with a basis of -61.91; IM2511 closed at 7360, down 0.15%, with a basis of -146.51; IM2512 closed at 7281.8, down 0.09%, with a basis of -224.71; IM2603 closed at 7066.2, down 0.11%, with a basis of -440.31 [1]. 3.2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF decreased by 13263 lots, IH decreased by 10311 lots, IC decreased by 47515 lots, and IM decreased by 80784 lots [2]. - **Positions**: The total positions of IF increased by 2673 lots, IH decreased by 3358 lots, IC decreased by 7113 lots, and IM decreased by 12164 lots [2]. 3.3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF**: For IF2510, long positions increased by 559 lots, and short positions increased by 371 lots; for IF2512, long positions increased by 2440 lots, and short positions increased by 3878 lots; for IF2603, long positions increased by 1013 lots, and short positions increased by 166 lots [5]. - **IH**: For IH2510, long positions decreased by 783 lots, and short positions decreased by 385 lots; for IH2512, long positions decreased by 2400 lots, and short positions decreased by 2110 lots; for IH2603, long positions increased by 238 lots, and short positions increased by 329 lots [5]. - **IC**: For IC2510, long positions decreased by 858 lots, and short positions decreased by 382 lots; for IC2512, long positions decreased by 956 lots, and short positions decreased by 2648 lots; for IC2603, long positions decreased by 731 lots, and short positions decreased by 1333 lots [5]. - **IM**: For IM2510, long positions decreased by 1484 lots, and short positions decreased by 1479 lots; for IM2512, long positions decreased by 6080 lots, and short positions decreased by 6646 lots [5]. 3.4. Trend Strength and Important Drivers - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6]. - **Important Drivers**: Strong US data dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to three consecutive days of decline in US stocks. The China concept stock index rebounded, while cryptocurrencies tumbled. The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the US in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, but inflation pressure was more stubborn than previously estimated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 3853.3 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.58%. The total trading volume of A-shares was 2.39 trillion yuan, up from 2.35 trillion yuan the previous day [6].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The aluminum industry chain generally strengthened due to the sharp rise in copper prices. Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher and moved upward, but the main contract 2511 closed down 0.39% at 20,765. The spread between October and November changed from flat to a slight discount of -5, and the far - month maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around -1,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the spot price of downstream alumina is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has little short - term change. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the election in Guinea [8]. - Alumina rose 1.66% during the day. The disturbance news from the Boke mine in Guinea was more of an emotional stimulus, and the substantial impact was temporarily limited. The low - cost support of alumina was prominent [8]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continued to follow Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long AD and short AL [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. On Thursday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 2.1 to 61.7 tons compared with last Thursday. With the decline in the absolute price and the pre - holiday stocking demand of aluminum processing enterprises, the previous inventory accumulation pressure began to ease. Shanghai aluminum returned to the previous oscillation range, and the support below continued to focus on the 20,500 level [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, with the main contract 2511 closing down 0.39%. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around -1,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The production situation of domestic bauxite in the north and the price trends of bauxite and alumina were analyzed, and attention was paid to the mining rights policy in Guinea [8]. - Alumina rose during the day, and its low - cost support was prominent. The trend of cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, and a trading strategy was proposed [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and the support level of Shanghai aluminum was pointed out [8]. 2. Industry News - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO will test international investors' attitude towards Middle Eastern aluminum assets and consolidate the UAE's position in the aluminum supply chain [9][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan remained at about 2.091 billion cans, the same as the previous year and remaining at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [10]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched, with a total registration volume of 3,878 tons on the first day [10].

2025 年 09 月 26 日 豆粕：阿根廷恢复出口关税，反弹震荡 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3929 | +39 （+1.00%） | 3942 | +12 （+0.31%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2601 | 2967 | +45（+1.54%） | 2956 | -5（-0.17%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1012 | +3.5（+0.35%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 273.3 | -2.6（-0.94%） | | n a | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2950～3000， 较昨+10或+20或持平； 平； 12-1月M2601+50， | 较昨持平或 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market has a high supply, and there is a possibility of price cuts. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the peak season from September to October, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease [2]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The current oil market shows a game between weak macro - expectations and tight spot fundamentals. It is likely to operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to focus on unilateral segment operations [24]. - **Methanol Industry**: The port inventory has decreased. The supply in the inland is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral, and the futures price fluctuates between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations [29]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures market shows a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to the deepening contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Although the cost provides some support, it is difficult to reverse the market downturn [37]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: PP production has decreased recently, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a high point, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory has decreased. The pressure of inventory accumulation for 01 contracts is relatively large, which limits the upward space [43]. - **Polyester Industry**: PX supply increases, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand is expected to be weak. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and the short - term basis is supported. Ethylene glycol supply - demand is gradually weakening. Short - fiber support is strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip supply - demand is still loose [46]. - **Styrene Industry**: The supply of pure benzene is loose, and the demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene is relatively loose, and the port inventory has accumulated, so the price may be under pressure [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged, while PVC prices showed a slight increase. The futures prices of some contracts decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 5%. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC generally increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the inventory in some areas decreased. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly, and the total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 26th, Brent crude oil rose by 0.16%, WTI rose by 0.45%, and SC fell by 1.55%. The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [24]. - **Market Logic**: The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks and tight supply to concerns about the macro - economy. The strong US economic data and the expected resumption of crude oil supply in the Kurdish region of Iraq put pressure on oil prices, while the supply interruption concerns caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the price [24]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some methanol futures contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices of some regions decreased slightly [29]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, mainly due to increased demand for pick - up and a significant decrease in the unloading volume of imported ships [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply in the inland is at a high level, and the demand is affected by the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral [29]. Urea Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures prices of urea showed a weak and volatile pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [34]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The prices of upstream raw materials were relatively stable, and the prices of downstream products were mostly unchanged. The cross - regional spreads and basis differences changed to some extent [35][36][37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea was at a high level, the agricultural demand was in the off - season, and the industrial demand was dragged down by the decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate [37]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some polyolefin futures contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads between some contracts decreased significantly [43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rates also increased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: On September 25th, the prices of some polyester products changed. The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and PX also fluctuated. The spreads and processing fees of related products changed [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PX increased, the supply of PTA was expected to shrink, ethylene glycol supply - demand was gradually weakening, short - fiber supply was at a high level, and bottle - chip supply - demand was still loose [46]. Styrene Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of upstream raw materials and styrene - related products changed to some extent. The cash flows of some products improved [49][50][51]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the styrene inventory increased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene was loose, and the demand support was limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene was relatively loose, and the port inventory had accumulated [53].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are fluctuating, fluctuating, and weakly fluctuating respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is fluctuating, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has changed and the steel price continues to fluctuate. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes and definitions of different trends [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, and the weekly output has continued to decline, but the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. Thanks to pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries, rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the peak season is lackluster. Overall, due to the improvement in demand, the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing support for the steel price, but the weak downstream performance and demand concerns remain, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a fluctuating trend before the holiday, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for silver futures in Shanghai has seen an intraday increase of 2%, currently priced at 10,375 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 1 - The Shanghai silver futures market is experiencing a notable rise in prices, indicating potential bullish sentiment among investors [1]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut decision has been made, but China's 5 - year LPR remained unchanged on Monday. The A - share market weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, continuing the adjustment trend. The main contract 2511 closed down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - The fundamentals of alumina remain weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is gradually emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. Although it has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September", the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the absolute price falls and aluminum processing enterprises have pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward - then - downward trend, with the main contract 2511 closing down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - Bauxite Situation: The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - Alumina Suggestion: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Strategy: The trend of cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Outlook: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. Although it has entered the peak season, the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the price falls and there is pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4.2 Industry News - Policy Issuance: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and guide the orderly layout of related industries [8][10]. - Project Delay: India's Federal Ministry of Environment has postponed the approval of Vedanta's Sijimali bauxite project in Odisha. The project has an estimated reserve of 311 million tons. The Forest Advisory Committee (FAC) pointed out that the report submitted by the Odisha government did not address issues such as community consent, compensatory afforestation, and ecological risks. The project will remain on hold until these issues are resolved [10]. - Mining Right Change: The mining right of the Dataoyuan bauxite mine in Shanzhou District, Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., has been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10].