英国央行审慎政策执行主管Saporta：企业不应假设未来将继续以当前方式使用我们的流动性工具。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is actively managing liquidity in the banking system through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos, to ensure a stable financial environment and support economic growth. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On June 11, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 164 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan for the day due to 214.9 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1] - The central bank announced a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo operation for June 6, marking a significant liquidity injection to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [3][4] - The central bank has established a new section on its website to disclose monthly liquidity operations, enhancing transparency and demonstrating its commitment to stabilizing the financial market [4][5] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The overnight pledged repo weighted average rate has decreased to around 1.35%, the lowest since December 2024, indicating a relaxed liquidity environment [3] - Analysts expect that the central bank will continue to use reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to maintain reasonable liquidity levels, especially with a high volume of interbank certificates maturing in June [5][6] - The central bank's proactive measures are aimed at controlling fluctuations in the money market and stabilizing market expectations, which is crucial for enhancing credit availability for businesses and households [5][6] Group 3: Economic Policies and Future Outlook - The government is accelerating the rollout of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with a focus on effective investment and consumption [7] - There is an expectation that the central bank may resume government bond purchases in July or August to increase its holdings, which is seen as urgent for achieving financial strength goals [7] - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum on June 18-19 will feature significant financial policy announcements from central financial management departments, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance the financial landscape [7]

Report Summary 1. Market Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Domestic factors have a weak driving force on the stock index, with a weak fundamental performance and a relatively policy - vacuum situation. Overseas variables dominate the short - term fluctuations of the stock index. Short - term positive signals in Sino - US economic and trade relations are expected to boost the equity market, and the stock index is expected to run strongly in the short term. However, be vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs and be cautious about chasing up [7]. 3. Summary by Content Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.38, down 3.50bp; DR007 closed at 1.51, down 1.97bp; GC001 closed at 1.43, down 2.00bp; GC007 closed at 1.55, down 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65, down 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50, down 10.00bp; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.41, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.50, up 0.45bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.66, up 0.25bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.51, up 11.00bp [4]. - The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were no reverse repurchase maturities on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 173.8 billion yuan [4]. - This week, 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature. After the bank assessment at the beginning of the month, the money market has become looser. The central bank uses medium - and short - term liquidity management tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity at the end of the year [5]. Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.29% to 3885.2; the SSE 50 fell 0.08% to 2686.8; the CSI 500 rose 0.76% to 5805.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.07% to 6219. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.2864 trillion yuan, an increase of 134.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, medical services, household light industry, small metals, batteries, and diversified finance leading the gains, while only railway and highway, and precious metals sectors fell [6]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased. IF trading volume was 88,193, up 37.8; IF open interest was 242,722, up 6.7; IH trading volume was 44,361, up 27.2; IH open interest was 84,420, up 7.6; IC trading volume was 76,382, up 42.4; IC open interest was 220,628, up 6.1; IM trading volume was 172,233, up 27.4; IM open interest was 324,544, up 3.2 [6]. Inflation and Foreign Trade Data - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the same decline as last month, and decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month [7]. - In May, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year - on - year (the previous value was 8.1%); imports decreased by 3.4% (the previous value was a 0.2% decrease); the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars, compared with a previous trade surplus of 96.18 billion US dollars. Tariff policies continue to have a structural impact on exports, with direct exports to the US continuing to decline, while exports to non - US countries show a significant year - on - year increase due to "re - export trade", offsetting some of the impact of direct trade with the US [7]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are provided, including the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [8].

Q&A 如何看待上周同业存单的行情及其对未来利率走势的影响？ 上周同业存单的行情表现出明显的变化，主要体现在发行放量和情绪缓释两个 方面。首先，存单发行量显著增加，表明市场需求未受到提价影响。其次，流 动性改善和市场预期共振使得长端交易迎来一波行情。具体来看，一年期工行 存单价格在 1.7 附近见顶后，风险已明显缓释。尽管未来几个月存在净融资压 力，但需求端若能跟上，则整体风险扩散问题不大。此外，大行增量买入短期 国债也对短端利率品种产生积极影响，使得短期国债情绪有所缓解。 近期大行对于短期国债买入行为背后的原因是什么？ 固收 存单见顶，利率抢跑 20250609 摘要 市场预期共振推动长端利率下行，一年期工行存单价格见顶，风险缓释。 未来净融资压力存在，但需求端若能跟上，整体风险可控。大行增量买 入短期国债，缓解短端利率品种压力。 大行增量买入短期国债或为组合调整，应对 5 月被动配置压力及 6 月政 府债券发行规模缓解，平衡久期。此举受央行政策影响，也反映投资策 略调整，改善短端情绪。 未来流动性管理和资金价格中枢有望超预期宽松，基于央行超额流动性 投放及银行负债端修复。预计 6 月或三季度有再贷款和 P ...

Group 1 - The 0-4 local government bond ETF (159816) has seen a 2 basis points increase, marking its sixth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 113.61 yuan [1] - The ETF has demonstrated active trading with a turnover of 216.62% and a transaction volume of 3.844 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [1] - The average daily transaction volume for the ETF over the past month was 2.219 billion yuan as of June 6 [1] Group 2 - Recent market recovery in the bond sector is attributed to several factors, including a balanced and loose liquidity environment, with the central bank's unexpected front-loaded reverse repo operations signaling support for liquidity [1][2] - The anticipation of a potential restart of government bond trading has positively influenced short-term instruments, prompting institutional investors to act [1] - The conversation between the Chinese and U.S. presidents has also contributed to the overall favorable conditions for the bond market, despite uncertainties in trade negotiations [1] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has announced a front-loaded reverse repo operation, reinforcing its supportive stance on liquidity, which aims to alleviate pressure on bank liabilities and address liquidity gaps [1][2] - The central bank's recent policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and continued MLF operations, have created a comprehensive liquidity management framework [2] - These measures have led to a gradual decline in the central tendency of funding rates, positively impacting the short-term bond market [2] Group 4 - The 0-4 local government bond ETF closely tracks the CSI 0-4 Year Local Government Bond Index, which consists of non-directional local government bonds with a remaining maturity of four years or less [2][3] - The index is calculated using market capitalization weighting to reflect the overall performance of local government bonds within the specified maturity range [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the consumption service industry, technology, and cyclical leaders, driven by macroeconomic expectations and microeconomic improvements. Key indicators show a slight recovery in manufacturing PMI and industrial output growth, suggesting potential for cost reductions in midstream manufacturing leaders and value in undervalued sectors like petrochemicals and new consumption [9][10][11] - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed financials, cyclicals, and consumer sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 1.1857 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity and risk appetite [12][20] - The report notes that 25 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification saw gains, with telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics leading the way, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors experienced declines [20][23] Group 2 - The report discusses the liquidity management strategy of the central bank, which is focused on maintaining stability by "shortening and lengthening" liquidity provisions. This includes net withdrawals through OMO and reverse repos, indicating a balanced approach to short and long-term liquidity [10][21][22] - It mentions that the yields on government bonds have slightly decreased due to ample liquidity, with 1-year and 10-year government bond yields at 1.41% and 1.65%, respectively, reflecting a stable interest rate environment [12][25] - The report also highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, which are influenced by contrasting employment data, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.04% and 4.51%, respectively, indicating market sensitivity to economic indicators [28][29] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of major commodities, noting that crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum prices have increased, driven by easing trade relations and OPEC+ production adjustments [12][13][32] - It highlights the significant rebound in crude oil prices, which reached $64.58 per barrel, and the increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.41 million barrels per day, reflecting a robust energy sector [32][39] - The report also discusses the dynamics of the gold market, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, impacting gold prices amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [12][13][32]

Group 1 - The central bank's announcement of a large-scale reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of June is aimed at alleviating market concerns regarding the upcoming maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) [1][2][3] - The operation involves a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement with a term of three months, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the banking system [2][4] - Analysts believe that the central bank's proactive measures are intended to stabilize market confidence and prevent liquidity tightening, especially with significant CD maturities approaching [3][6] Group 2 - The weighted average issuance rate of interbank CDs has shown initial signs of decline, with a drop from 1.82% to 1.80% recently, indicating a potential easing of market pressures [3][4] - The upcoming week is critical for observing the performance of the interbank CD market, as over 1.2 trillion yuan in CDs will mature, marking the largest single-week maturity volume in history [7] - Despite the pressures from maturing CDs, factors such as increased fiscal spending and seasonal inflows of wealth management funds may help mitigate the outflow of bank deposits [7][8] Group 3 - The central bank's liquidity management strategy may involve increasing medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations to offset the impact of maturing reverse repos, indicating a flexible approach to maintaining liquidity [8] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations due to various factors, including tax payment periods and the maturity of approximately 930 billion yuan in reverse repos [8] - The central bank's clear stance on liquidity support suggests that the funding environment is likely to remain stable despite the anticipated disturbances [8]

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets rose overall, with Hong Kong and US stocks leading the gains[1] - Major commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum also saw price increases[1] - The US dollar index fell slightly, while the offshore RMB and euro appreciated, and the yen depreciated[1] Domestic Equity Market - As of June 6, the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 11,857 billion RMB, up from 10,699 billion RMB[2] - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 25 sectors rose, with telecommunications (+5.27%), non-ferrous metals (+3.74%), and electronics (+3.60%) leading the gains[2] - Conversely, household appliances (-1.79%), food and beverage (-1.06%), and transportation (-0.54%) saw declines[2] Interest Rates and Currency Exchange - The People's Bank of China adopted a "short-term collection and long-term release" liquidity management strategy, leading to a decrease in short-term liquidity demand[2] - The 1Y government bond yield fell by 4.5 basis points to 1.41%, while the 10Y yield decreased by 1.65 basis points to 1.6547%[1] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar, closing at 7.1885[2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, but rose by 0.5 percentage points in May[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 3.0% year-on-year in April[2] - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 in April to 49.6 in May, indicating a contraction in manufacturing output globally[2] Commodity Trends - Crude oil prices rebounded significantly due to easing trade relations and OPEC+ moderate production increases[1] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 14.63% month-on-month to 62,300 units[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.2% week-on-week, indicating improved shipping demand[1]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 跨月后，本周资金面维持均衡偏松，资金利率中枢有所下移，央行打破月 末公告买断式逆回购操作惯例，宣布 10000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放 流动性呵护信号，资金分层现象仍不明显。 央行前置买断式逆回购操作，如何理解？ 固收周度点评 20250608 证券研究报告 暖风再起，静待下行 政策暖风再起，短端表现较强，收益率曲线走陡 本周（6/3-6/6）债市有所回暖，短端明显强势，曲线走陡，背后有几点 驱动因素：一是月初资金面维持均衡宽松，央行超预期前置买断式逆回购 操作，释放重要信号，以及市场开始预期国债买卖适时重启，对短端品种 形成利好，机构抢跑；二是中美元首通话落地，中美贸易局势的演绎、以 及后续中美关税贸易谈判存在的不确定性，基本面逻辑整体或仍有利于债 市。 全周收益率走势来看，债市收益率普遍下行，短端表现好于长端。截至 6/6， 1Y、2Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率较上周分别下行 4.5BP、3.6BP、1.7BP、2.0BP 至 1.41%、1.43%、1.65%、1.88%。 流动性呵护之下，资金面均衡宽松 6 月 5 日，中国人民银行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告，此 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and stabilize market expectations [1] - The operation is aimed at preventing fluctuations in the funding environment, as the banking system has shown a slight marginal contraction in liquidity recently [1] - The PBOC's decision to disclose the scale of the reverse repurchase operation earlier in the month enhances the transparency of monetary policy and helps guide market expectations [1] Group 2 - There is speculation that the PBOC may conduct additional reverse repurchase operations within June, as there is no restriction on the frequency of these operations [2] - The reverse repurchase operations are expected to work alongside Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - The use of various liquidity management tools, including MLF and reverse repos, is crucial for increasing credit availability for enterprises and households, thereby reducing financing costs in the real economy [2]