Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital is increasingly active in the market, with a strong preference for stocks as the primary investment asset for the second half of the year, reflecting a positive outlook on the A-share market [1][3][4]. Investment Preferences - According to the latest survey by the China Insurance Asset Management Association, stocks are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of the year, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [3][4]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of insurance capital utilization has reached 36.23 trillion yuan, with stock investment balance increasing by 47.57% compared to the end of 2024, surpassing 3 trillion yuan [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The increase in stock investment is driven by a combination of policy guidance, low interest rates, and product demand, indicating a more pronounced and long-term trend in insurance capital entering the market [2][4]. - The insurance industry is shifting towards a "stable income + appreciation" strategy, focusing on high-dividend, stable cash flow, and reasonably valued listed companies to fill the income gap created by declining bond yields [4][8]. Structural Changes - The current trend reflects a significant shift in asset allocation priorities among insurance institutions, with stocks gaining higher priority due to favorable market conditions and regulatory support [4][6]. - The "barbell" strategy of combining fixed income and equity investments is being adopted to mitigate duration mismatch risks while enhancing overall portfolio returns [5][8]. Future Outlook - The trend of increasing equity allocation is expected to continue and possibly strengthen over the next 2-3 years, driven by structural factors rather than short-term speculation [7][8]. - Insurance capital is becoming a major source of incremental funds in the stock market, with a focus on high-dividend sectors such as banking and public utilities [6][7].

Market Overview - Major indices opened higher with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.03%, and ChiNext Index up 1.41%, driven by sectors like computing chips and Huawei Ascend [1] Institutional Insights - China Galaxy Securities suggests that the market is likely to rotate around AI industry chain, anti-involution, and non-bank financial sectors, with technology growth sectors expected to maintain high prosperity due to the AI technology revolution [2] - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the importance of AI industry trends and consumer breakthroughs for investment in the consumption sector, highlighting that current low valuations and favorable policies could lead to a recovery cycle [3] - Huatai Securities identifies AI chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and large finance as strategic allocation focuses, noting that the market is entering an upward trend supported by improved domestic and overseas liquidity [4] Industry Developments - CITIC Construction Investment reports rapid advancements in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, with Guoxuan High-Tech's "Jinshi Battery" entering trial production and securing significant orders for semi-solid state battery storage projects, marking a milestone in commercial application [5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2025 年 8 月） 8 月延续相对跑输，持续看好红利长期配置 推荐（维持） 价值 ❑ 风险提示：经济出现下滑、改革不及预期、并购整合等资本运作不及预期。 行业研究 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,240.61 | 3.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 28,359.48 | 3.58 | 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of sustainable dividends and high-quality earnings in dividend investment strategies, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment and market volatility [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The high dividend strategy focuses on selecting stocks with high dividends, low valuations, and strong earnings quality, while also considering future profitability and dividend plans [1][2] - The strategy is built around two dimensions: mature, low-valuation leading companies with stable cash flows and high dividend-paying "small but beautiful" companies with growth potential [2][3] - The average dividend yield of the top ten holdings in the fund managed by the company is reported at 6.08% as of the end of Q2 [2] Group 2: Quantitative Approach - The introduction of quantitative methods enhances the high dividend strategy, utilizing multi-factor models and machine learning for stock selection and risk optimization [4][5] - The company employs a "core + satellite" multi-strategy approach, where the core focuses on high dividends and low valuations, while the satellite includes various defensive strategies to diversify risk [5][6] - Machine learning, particularly neural network strategies, is increasingly integrated into quantitative strategies to improve stock selection metrics [5][6] Group 3: Team and Collaboration - The quantitative investment team has been focused on strategy development since 2011, combining expertise from mathematics, computer science, and financial engineering [6] - The team operates on a collaborative platform where data and strategies are shared, allowing for systematic analysis and optimization of investment strategies [6] - The integration of data-driven decision-making reduces subjective influences and enhances the efficiency of investment operations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise of the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to further catalyze the inflow of personal and institutional funds, indicating significant potential for residents' equity asset allocation, particularly in the non-bank financial sector, which is viewed positively for strategic allocation opportunities as the fundamentals improve [1] Group 1: Securities Industry - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 3.01 trillion yuan, a 21% increase week-on-week, with a cumulative average daily trading volume of 1.75 trillion yuan by August 22, representing a 90% year-on-year increase [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised and officially implemented the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which aims to guide the industry towards more concentrated development and differentiated growth for small and medium-sized institutions [2] - Market trading activity continues to rise, with an expansion in margin financing and securities lending, as well as increased self-owned equity positions and robust overseas business, which are expected to lead to better-than-expected performance for securities firms [3] Group 2: Insurance Industry - According to a recent survey by the China Insurance Asset Management Association, insurance institutions have shown a significant rebound in confidence regarding the A-share and bond markets for the second half of 2025, with stocks being the preferred investment asset [4] - As of June 30, the balance of insurance funds reached 36.23 trillion yuan, an 8.9% increase from the beginning of the year, with a continued increase in equity and bond allocations while reducing bank deposits and non-standard investments [4] - The stable long-term interest rates and improved asset yield expectations are expected to enhance the return on equity (ROE) for insurance companies, leading to a potential recovery in price-to-book (PB) valuations, with recommendations for undervalued companies like China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [4] Group 3: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guosen Securities, Dongfang Securities, China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, Jiangsu Jinzhong, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and others [5] Group 4: Beneficiary Stocks - Beneficiary stocks include CICC, Tonghuashun, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, and New China Life Insurance [6]

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital is increasingly active in the market, with stocks being the preferred investment asset for the second half of the year, reflecting a significant shift in asset allocation strategies among insurance institutions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Preferences - According to a recent survey by the China Insurance Asset Management Association, stocks are the top choice for insurance institutions in the second half of the year, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [3][4]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total balance of insurance capital utilization reached 36.23 trillion yuan, with stock investment balance growing by 47.57% compared to the end of 2024, surpassing 3 trillion yuan [3][4]. - The preference for stocks indicates a strategic shift towards low-valuation, high-dividend, and stable cash flow companies, aiming to ensure long-term returns while controlling downside risks [1][4][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The dual drivers of a low-interest-rate environment and policy guidance are leading insurance institutions to significantly increase their stock investments [3][5]. - The average dividend yield of stocks in the CSI 300 index ranges from 3% to 4%, making them an attractive alternative to traditional fixed-income assets [5][7]. - Insurance companies are increasingly engaging in "block trades," particularly targeting high-dividend sectors such as banking and public utilities, indicating a focus on stable investment targets [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The trend of increasing equity market allocation is expected to continue and potentially strengthen over the next 2-3 years, driven by structural factors rather than short-term speculation [7][8]. - The "barbell strategy" of combining fixed income and equities is seen as effective in mitigating duration mismatch risks while enhancing overall portfolio returns [6][8]. - Despite potential market volatility, the enthusiasm for investing in high-dividend quality assets is likely to remain strong among insurance capital [7][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the profit-making effect is expected to further stimulate the capital market, continuing to strategically favor the non-bank financial sector. The ongoing improvement in the fundamentals indicates that traditional brokerage and insurance sectors are still undervalued, with attention on subsequent trading volumes, mid-year reports, and policy catalysts [4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 3.01 trillion, up 21% week-on-week, with a cumulative average daily trading volume of 1.75 trillion for 2025, representing a 90% year-on-year increase [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has officially implemented the revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which encourages concentrated development and differentiated growth among small and medium-sized institutions [4] - The market's trading activity continues to rise, with the expansion of margin trading and the high prosperity of overseas business expected to lead to better-than-expected performance for brokerages [4] Insurance Sector - The confidence survey conducted by the China Insurance Asset Management Association indicates a significant rebound in insurance institutions' confidence in the A-share and bond markets for the second half of the year, with stocks being the preferred investment asset [4] - As of June, the balance of insurance funds reached 36.23 trillion, an increase of 8.9% since the beginning of the year, with a continued allocation increase in stocks and bonds [4] - The long-term interest rates remain stable, alleviating net asset pressure, and the expected improvement in asset returns is anticipated to enhance the ROE of insurance companies [4] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guosen Securities, Dongfang Securities, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, Jiangsu Jinzheng, and Hong Kong Exchanges [5] - Beneficiary stocks include CICC H, Tonghuashun, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, and New China Life Insurance [5]

Macro Economy - In the first seven months of this year, China's trade volume with other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reached $293.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Internet Information Office have jointly drafted the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules (Draft for Comments)," which includes 30 articles focusing on pricing autonomy, price marking behavior, price competition behavior, and consumer price rights protection [2] Investment News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised and officially implemented the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which have historically favored larger brokerages over smaller ones [5] - As of August 22, the number of A-shares priced over 100 yuan has increased to 132, a threefold increase compared to the same date last year, with 58 of these stocks being from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5] - The price of lithium carbonate has remained volatile, with the main futures contract dropping by 4.41% to 79,000 yuan per ton, as several lithium companies announced normal capacity releases [5] - Insurance institutions have shown a significant rebound in confidence regarding the bond and A-share markets for the second half of the year, focusing on investment opportunities in artificial intelligence, high-dividend stocks, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] Company Movements - Sunac China reported that the fifth batch of 66 units at Shanghai Yihua Garden sold out quickly, with total sales exceeding 22 billion yuan this year [6] - Huawei's Intelligent Automotive Solutions Business Unit announced the upcoming release of Huawei ADS 4 and Harmony Space 5, indicating rapid advancements in automotive technology [6] - Lenovo has established a comprehensive "full-stack AI" system covering AI terminals, infrastructure, and services [7] - Xiaomi anticipates that the total number of its stores will exceed 20,000 by the end of this year, with over 200 stores integrating various ecosystems [7] - BYD announced the launch of its new model in Malaysia and plans to build an assembly plant there, expected to commence production in 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Asset Management Association released a survey indicating that insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset for the second half of 2025, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [1][4]. Macro Economic Aspects - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of the year, with GDP growth projected between 4.5% and 5.5%, CPI growth between 0% and 0.5%, and PPI growth between -3.5% and -2.0%. The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to appreciate steadily, with a focus on exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. Macro Policy Aspects - Insurance institutions predict a moderately accommodative monetary policy in the second half, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity. Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, leaning towards expansion to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially increasing the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds [3]. Asset Allocation Preferences - Stocks are identified as the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half, followed by bonds and securities investment funds. Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [4]. Bond Market Outlook - Insurance institutions hold a neutral to optimistic view on the bond market for the second half, expecting 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0%. There is a favorable outlook for ultra-long special government bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years, influenced by economic fundamentals, monetary policy easing, and market liquidity [5]. A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions are optimistic about the A-share market, predicting the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points. They favor stocks related to the CSI 300 index, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense. Investment areas of interest include artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor affecting the A-share market [6]. Overseas Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half, with 40% of insurance institutions also optimistic about bond and gold investments [7].

Group 1: Insurance Asset Management Survey Results - The China Insurance Asset Management Association released the investor confidence survey results for the second half of 2025, covering macro environment, market judgment, allocation plans, and return expectations with participation from 122 insurance institutions [1] - Stocks are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of 2025, followed by bonds and securities investment funds, with most institutions expecting asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025 [1] - A majority of insurance institutions hold a neutral to optimistic view on the bond market, anticipating 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0% [1] Group 2: A-share Market Outlook - Most insurance institutions are optimistic about the A-share market for the second half of 2025, predicting the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points [2] - Insurance institutions favor stocks related to the CSI 300 index, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [2] - Key investment areas include artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a major factor influencing the A-share market [2]