美联储威廉姆斯：今年美国经济可能增长约1%。不确定性、关税措施以及移民减少将放缓经济增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that overall inflation is nearing 2%, but core inflation remains elevated, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [1] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by approximately 1% this year, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity [1] - Factors such as uncertainty, tariff measures, and reduced immigration are expected to hinder economic growth [1] Monetary Policy - A moderately tight monetary policy is in place, allowing for the assessment of new data as it becomes available [1] - Inflation rates are anticipated to gradually decline to 2% over the next two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The slowdown in labor force growth is expected to hinder economic growth, with immigration being a contributing factor to this trend [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the economy is slowing down this year [1] - Labor force growth is experiencing a deceleration, which will impact overall economic performance [1] - Immigration is identified as one of the reasons for the slowdown in labor force growth [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：在我担任美联储主席剩下的时间里，希望实现强劲的经济增长。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the labor market appears to remain stable, suggesting resilience in employment conditions [1] - Immigration restrictions may become a medium-term obstacle to economic growth, highlighting potential challenges for the labor market and overall economic expansion [1]

英国央行行长贝利：贸易关税对通胀的影响比对经济增长的影响更为模糊。 ...

克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周二表示，当前利率的限制性仅为"温和"，官员们可能会在一段时间内将借贷 成本维持在稳定水平。 哈马克表示，尽管近期取得了进展，但在达到通胀目标方面，美联储仍有"一段距离要走"。她还说，官 方数据是滞后的，可能无法完全捕捉当前的动态，包括近期油价上涨可能助推通胀预期的风险。 "很有可能的情况是，在委员会启动非常温和的降息以使政策回归中性之前，政策将在相当长的一段时 间内保持不变，"哈马克在为伦敦一场会议准备的讲稿中说。 美联储官员本月已连续第四次会议维持利率不变，以便给自己更多时间来观察美国总统特朗普的关税及 其他政策将如何影响通胀和增长。中东的紧张局势也增加了全球经济的风险。 在6月会议上发布的最新预测显示，根据中位数预测，美联储决策者们仍然预计今年会有两次降息。但 预测也显示出一些分歧，有七名官员预计今年根本不会降息。 保持观察 哈马克表示，经济的韧性表明，维持利率稳定的风险很低。她说，她没有看到经济出现值得降息的疲 软，但"对这种可能性保持警惕。" 这位克利夫兰联储主席还说，利率可能已经接近中性水平，即美联储既不刺激也不减缓经济的水平。 自那次会议以来发表讲话的官员们也对任何行动的时 ...

Core Insights - The implementation of low-carbon city pilot policies since 2010 has significantly promoted local carbon reduction and green economic growth, with a 38.7% increase in GDP per unit carbon emission for each unit increase in policy effectiveness [2] - The effectiveness of these policies varies based on marketization level, environmental regulation intensity, and the type of resource-based cities, indicating that these characteristics are crucial for policy outcomes [5][6] Policy Implementation Effects - The pilot policies have led to a shift in focus from energy consumption management to energy-saving project applications, with a notable increase in policy issuance over time [2] - High-intensity low-carbon policies create environmental barriers to market entry, effectively excluding high-carbon and high-pollution enterprises, thus maintaining a "green concentration" within industries [2] - The upgrading of industrial structures is essential for implementing pilot policies and promoting green economic growth, although the impact on resource allocation efficiency remains limited due to single assessment targets faced by local governments [3] Green Technology Innovation - The policies have effectively increased green technology innovation, with a 49.5% rise in green invention patent applications and a 41.8% increase in practical green patents for each unit increase in policy evaluation index [4] Heterogeneity Analysis - The marketization level shows a "U-shaped" relationship with policy effectiveness, where initial increases in marketization enhance resource allocation efficiency, but excessive marketization may reduce carbon reduction capabilities [5][6] - Resource-based cities exhibit better policy effects due to larger carbon emission baselines, with growth-type cities showing the highest effectiveness, followed by mature, declining, and regenerating types [7] Policy Recommendations - Emphasizing top-level design to promote technological innovation and the development of green industries is crucial, with AI technology playing a significant role in optimizing carbon reduction strategies [11] - Strengthening policy tracking and establishing a data-sharing platform can enhance local governments' focus on low-carbon development planning [12] - Rationalizing environmental decentralization can reduce policy execution uncertainties and improve effectiveness [13] - Tailoring policies to local conditions and promoting successful case studies can mitigate the risks of rigid low-carbon policies [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, highlighting internal and external divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy direction [2][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen significant pressure from President Trump and White House officials urging Powell to restart the rate-cutting process [2]. - The June dot plot revealed a notable division among Federal Reserve officials, with seven out of nineteen supporting no rate cuts this year, indicating a split between hawkish and dovish factions [2][4]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist noted that the level of disagreement among officials is at a ten-year high, reflecting fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [4]. Group 2: Powell's Upcoming Testimony - Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance during his upcoming testimony, likely reiterating the Fed's position to wait for more economic data before making any rate adjustments [6][11]. - Analysts predict that Powell will emphasize the current economic stability and the need for patience, despite calls for immediate action from some officials [6][11]. - The core PCE price index is anticipated to show a modest increase of only 0.1% month-over-month, indicating low inflationary pressures [6]. Group 3: Political Influences and Market Reactions - The political influence on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is becoming more pronounced, with two Republican-leaning officials suggesting a rate cut in July, which has altered market expectations [6][9]. - Market traders have raised the probability of a July rate cut to approximately 23%, while the likelihood of a September cut stands at 82% [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Concerns - Powell is likely to address the potential economic impacts of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which has seen fluctuations in oil prices but is not expected to have a lasting effect on inflation [11][14]. - Analysts warn that prolonged conflict could push oil prices to $120 per barrel, potentially raising U.S. inflation to around 5% [14]. Group 5: Regulatory and Policy Discussions - Powell may face questions regarding the current push for regulatory reforms, including the relaxation of certain banking regulations, which the White House is advocating [16]. - The proposal to eliminate interest payments on bank reserves, aimed at reducing government spending, is also expected to be a topic of discussion, though analysts caution it could disrupt monetary policy [17].

央视网消息：近期，伴随着稳增长政策的落地，中国经济展现出强大韧性，多家外资机构纷纷上调了对于中国经济增长的预 期。跨国公司负责人纷纷表示，中国积极推进高水平对外开放，为全球经济稳定与发展注入了强大动力，也推动了与跨国公司之间 的互惠共赢。 多家国际金融机构上调中国经济增速预期 第六届跨国公司领导人青岛峰会发布的《跨国公司在中国：投资未来共赢发展再起航》报告指出，截至2024年底，外商累计在 华投资设立的企业超过123.9万家，累计实际使用外资20.6万亿元人民币。面对经济全球化的深度调整，中国正以全方位、多维度的 战略优势为跨国公司构筑投资热土。 摩根士丹利年中展望报告，上调了对2025年中国经济增速预期，将今明两年的经济增速分别上调0.3个百分点和0.2个百分点； 德意志银行在下半年经济展望报告中表示，中国宽松的货币政策和财政政策的加快有望持续发力，服务业产出和零售表现也展现出 韧性，上调中国2025年经济增速预测0.2个百分点；野村也将中国全年GDP增长预测上调0.5个百分点，高盛则上调了今年二季度和 下半年的中国环比GDP增速预测，并将今年GDP增速预测上调0.6个百分点。 看好增长潜力 外资机构纷纷布 ...