摩根大通分析师Gregory Shearer表示，在所有大宗商品中，白银将面临最大规模的抛售。他估计，白银 的净抛售量相当于纽约商品交易所（Comex）所有未平仓衍生品合约价值的10%左右。 一波价值超过100亿美元的贵金属抛售潮，正在给2026年的市场带来首个"大考"，去年黄金和白银那令 人咋舌的飙升走势正面临压力。 根据摩根大通的测算，追踪大宗商品指数的基金正在重新平衡其持仓，预计将在今年1月8日至15日的年 度调仓窗口期内，抛售约61亿美元的白银和56亿美元的黄金。"这是对去年12月行情可持续性的第一次 重大测试，毕竟我们是以如此高的基数开启2026年的，"MKS Pamp分析师Nicky Shiels表示。 像彭博大宗商品指数（BCOM）这样的基准指数，必须每年调整一次权重以维持目标配置比例。追踪这 些指数的基金因此必须相应地买入或卖出持仓。往年这种市场影响可能波澜不惊，但由于部分大宗商品 价格近期波动剧烈，预计今年的调仓将产生更大的涟漪。这可能会给贵金属价格带来压力，但也可能为 敏锐的投资者提供"低吸"的机会。 分析师指出，这种情况去年就曾发生过。在2025年的调仓窗口期，强制性抛售遭遇了更猛烈的买 ...

（原标题：2025年前10月加纳贸易顺差达85亿美元） 进口方面，进口总额达到148亿美元，主要由石油产品和非石油商品推动，但进口增速低于出口增 速，这有助于扩大贸易顺差。加纳央行指出，强劲的贸易表现支撑了加纳的外部缓冲，目前国际储备总 额超过110亿美元，足以覆盖约4.8个月的进口。加纳央行预计，只要全球黄金价格保持高位且国内黄金 产量维持在高位，这一积极趋势就将继续下去。 加纳央行报告显示，2025年上半年加贸易顺差同比增长307%，达到55.7亿美元。截至10月份，加 纳出口总额为233亿美元，其中黄金出口额占比最大，可可出口额为28亿美元，原油出口额为22亿美 元，其他出口产品(包括非传统产品)总额为30亿美元。 据"加纳网"12月31日报道，加纳央行公布的最新《经济和金融数据摘要》显示，截至2025年10月， 加纳贸易顺差达85亿美元，相当于国内生产总值的9.7%。最新数据显示，加贸易顺差持续走强主要得 益于强劲的黄金出口收入，2025年前10个月黄金出口额已达152亿美元，国际金价全年居高不下，10月 份突破每盎司4000美元大关，极大地提振了加纳的出口收入。 ...

一、农业部门：可可强劲，咖啡承压。可可出口表现突出，2024年收入创历史达12亿基那，2025年预计 增至20亿基那，主要得益于布干维尔等省份的增产。但主要受科特迪瓦生产恢复影响，全球可可价格从 年初每吨约1万美元回落至年末约6000美元。咖啡产业面临挑战，尽管全球市场价格高，但巴新咖啡生 产力、产量和出口均下降。本年度亮点措施包括7月推出的"货运保障计划"，为依赖空运的偏远种植者 预付全额运费；莫罗贝省新建咖啡加工厂；以及《2025年国家咖啡管理局法案》有望加强行业监管等。 （原标题：2025年巴新经济部门表现与挑战） 《信使邮报》12月31日报道，2025年巴新各经济部门在机遇与挑战中发展，呈现以下关键态势： 三、零售、制造业与中小企业：增长待激活，瓶颈待破解。零售与制造业方面，莫尔兹比港零售业活动 相对平淡，竞争激烈。制造业受持续的水电中断和高昂网络费用严重困扰，导致巨额损失。业界指出， 国有企业表现停滞及基础设施问题正阻碍经济增长。中小企业资金获取困难是最大发展障碍，政府支持 资金因银行政策法规难以抵达企业家。 巴新地理位置优越，贸易潜力巨大。当前经济活力部分依赖于矿业、石油的现有贡献及农业出口，但整 ...

Key Insights - The global commodity market in 2025 shows a clear divergence, with energy and agricultural prices declining while precious metals (like gold and silver) and industrial metals (like copper) continue to rise and reach new highs. This situation is influenced by changes in global demand, geopolitical tensions, monetary policy adjustments, and the development of the new energy industry. This divergence is expected to persist into 2026, with energy prices anticipated to further decline due to oversupply, while precious metal prices are projected to continue rising [1]. Energy - The global crude oil market in 2025 experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude prices fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel by year-end. Geopolitical tensions and policy changes were key drivers of price movements, with prices peaking at $83 per barrel early in the year due to U.S. sanctions on Russia [3][5]. - In the second half of 2025, the market shifted from being geopolitically driven to one characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a downward trend in oil prices. OPEC+ adjusted its strategy from production cuts to phased increases, while U.S. production reached historical highs, resulting in rapid inventory accumulation [5][6]. - For 2026, the oil market is expected to face severe oversupply pressures, with Brent crude prices projected to drop further. Analysts predict a price range of $56 to $60 per barrel, with some forecasts suggesting a potential dip to $51 per barrel in early 2026 [7]. Natural Gas - The global natural gas market in 2025 showed a "high then low" pattern, with prices initially rising due to cold weather and geopolitical factors but later declining as new U.S. production came online and demand slowed in Asia [8][10]. - In 2026, the market is expected to transition from a "tight balance" to "periodic oversupply," driven by increased LNG production from the U.S., Qatar, and Canada. Despite ample supply, demand is projected to rise by 2%, providing some price support [10]. Uranium - The uranium market in 2025 transitioned from "de-bubbling" to "structural support," with prices rebounding from a low of approximately $63 per pound to around $81-83 per pound by year-end. This was driven by renewed demand from nuclear power and AI data centers [11][13]. - For 2026, expectations are for uranium prices to accelerate upward, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $91 per pound, with some estimates as high as $135 per pound due to increasing demand and supply constraints [14]. Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a "historic rally" in 2025, with gold prices rising approximately 70% and silver prices soaring over 160%. This was fueled by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and a low-interest-rate environment [15][17]. - For 2026, major financial institutions predict continued bullish trends for gold, with average prices expected to range from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank strategies and concerns over U.S. dollar credit [18][19]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals market in 2025 was characterized by extreme differentiation, with copper prices reaching historical highs due to demand from AI data centers and global grid upgrades. Copper prices exceeded $12,700 per ton [21]. - In 2026, copper and tin are expected to remain strong, with copper potentially reaching $15,000 per ton, while tin prices may rise to $44,000 per ton due to ongoing supply constraints [28]. Agricultural Products - Cocoa prices fell significantly in 2025 after reaching a peak in 2024, while coffee prices exhibited a high-level fluctuation, with expectations for a return to balance in 2026 as supply improves [25][27]. - For 2026, cocoa is expected to see a surplus of about 150,000 tons, leading to price declines, while coffee prices are projected to drop significantly due to increased production in Brazil and Colombia [29][32].

Core Insights - The IMF report highlights severe systemic corruption issues within Ghana's public procurement system [1] - Companies often need to pay substantial "extra payments" to secure government contracts, fostering a shadow economy around public spending [1] - Over the past 20 years, approximately $358 million in judgment debts have arisen due to this corruption [1] Corruption and Accountability - The ruling party and its affiliates manipulate state institutions for rent-seeking purposes, leading to scandals involving misappropriation of public funds in various sectors, including youth employment agencies and education funds [1] - There is a notable lack of accountability in prosecuting corruption cases involving political figures, which undermines the credibility of the country's anti-corruption mechanisms [1] Sector-Specific Risks - The natural resources sector, particularly oil, mining, and cocoa industries, faces significant revenue loss risks due to weak regulatory frameworks [1]

Group 1 - Cocoa futures prices are experiencing upward momentum due to dry weather threatening the next season's production, exacerbating an already tight global supply chain [1] - The most active cocoa futures contract in London rose by 1.3% to £5,264 per ton, with a weekly increase of approximately 1.7%, marking a strong rebound from a one-month low [1] - Severe drought conditions persist in nearly one-third of Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, while over half of Ghana is facing extreme drought [1] Group 2 - Cocoa futures prices reached historical highs in 2024, with London/New York prices surging to approximately $10,000–$13,000 per ton, reflecting a 280% increase by April 2024 compared to the beginning of the year [2] - The cocoa industry is facing supply challenges due to El Niño, ongoing drought, and diseases like CSSVD, with expectations of a 10% decline in West African production for the 2025/26 season [2] - Major chocolate manufacturers like Hershey and Lindt have announced double-digit price increases since 2024, indicating that high cocoa prices will likely persist for some time [2]

Group 1 - The cocoa, chocolate, and candy processing industry in Colombia experienced a year-on-year growth of 10.94% in the first quarter of 2025 [1] - As of April 2025, there are a total of 1,015 companies engaged in cocoa, chocolate, and candy processing in Colombia [1] - A significant majority, 94.5%, of these companies are classified as micro-enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank warns that the financial instability of the Ghana Cocoa Board poses a serious threat to the development of the cocoa industry in Ghana, which is a crucial export sector for the country [1] Group 1: Financial Challenges - The World Bank's report highlights ongoing operational and financial challenges within the Ghana Cocoa Board that could jeopardize cocoa's role as a key export [1] - Despite global cocoa prices reaching historical highs, cocoa production in Ghana remains weak, indicating a disconnect between market prices and local production capabilities [1] Group 2: Debt and Supplier Payments - The Ghana Cocoa Board is reported to owe significant amounts to suppliers, exacerbating the financial strain on the cocoa industry [1] - The failure to address these debts could lead to broader economic repercussions for Ghana, given cocoa's importance for foreign exchange earnings and rural income [1] Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - The report calls for the Ghana Cocoa Board to focus on its core cocoa production activities, reduce non-core financial expenditures, and streamline operations to enhance efficiency and financial health [1]