青年非洲2月25日报道，科特迪瓦可可危机持续发酵，导致国内政治紧张、经济承压。科是全球最 大可可供应国，可可产量全球占比40%，产值占国内GDP的15%，直接养活了110万可可种植户，并间 接为600万人提供了收入来源，可可产业是科保障财政收入和就业的重要部门。如今，因全球需求疲软 和收购价格错配，科陷入严重可可销售困境。首先，全球需求疲软要追溯至2023年至2024年的可可热， 当时可可价格飙升且供不应求，在此背景下 ，巧克力制造商一方面选择调整配方，减少了可可原料使 用量，另一方面将成本转嫁给消费者，造成巧克力价格大涨。从那之后，全球可可豆加工量和巧克力消 费量开始下降。其次，收购价格错位体现在科可可监管部门咖啡可可委员会（CCC）根据2023年和2024 年的形势，制定了高达2800西非法郎/公斤的田间收购价，创历史新高，而今年全球可可价格下跌超过 70%，已从2024年12月的1.2万美元/吨高位跌至约3000美元/吨。在此背景下，科可可豆滞销也就在所难 免。1月21日，科政府已宣布按收购价格回购种植户的积压库存可可，从最初计划收购13万吨，增至实 际收购量20万吨，总价值超过3000亿西法（约合5. ...

本文字数：1071，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 樊志菁 2026.02. 12 周三，国际可可期货价格跌破3800美元关口，创2023年10月以来的最低水平，市场在全球需求疲软 与供应增加之间寻求平衡。 加纳本周召开紧急会议，决定加速向农民支付可可豆（收购费用），提高国内对可可豆的加工处理的 程度。加纳可可局正探索新的融资模式，旨在减少对生可可豆出口的依赖，推动可可本地加工，提升 行业可持续性和农民收入，目标是将加纳打造为区域可可加工与巧克力制造中心。 供应端方面，天气因素推高了产量预期，西非主要产区（尤其是科特迪瓦和加纳）土壤水分充足，即 将到来的降雨有望提振作物长势，并有助于产出高品质可可豆，预计将增加本收割季2月和3月的收 成。 采购意愿低迷导致主要可可生产国出现库存积压。最新数据显示，自去年10月1日本季开始以来，截 至2月8日，科特迪瓦港口可可到货量达126.3万吨，较上一年同期增长4.5%。与此同时，加纳可可 局（COCOBOD）透露，由于加纳可可价格高于其他生产国，国际市场买家正越来越多地放弃采购 加纳可可。加纳港口目前积压约5万吨未售出可可。 大宗商品研究机构StoneX在1月下 ...

新融资框架有望改变可可行业的融资方式，并摆脱传统的季度销售模式，支持可可豆的本地加工，提高 整个价值链的收入，还可以缓解过去用于可可采购的银团贷款压力，同时为本地和国际投资者建立合作 关系创造机会。 据"乐在线"2月6日报道，加纳可可局(COCOBOD)正在探索一种新的融资模式，以减少对生可可豆出口 的依赖。此举是可可行业改革的一部分，旨在提高行业可持续性、增强农民收入，并将加纳定位为区域 领先的可可加工和巧克力制造中心。 目前可可局与政府和金融利益相关者的讨论仍在进行中，预计之后将公布框架细节。 （原标题：加纳可可局拟减少原豆出口） ...

据"乐在线"网2月5日报道。加纳持牌可可采购商协会(LICOBAG)执行秘书维克图斯在阿克拉举行的新闻 发布会上表示，加纳可可行业正因资金限制、销售策略薄弱和治理失灵而苦苦挣扎，并提出了一系列资 金、定价和政策改革方案，旨在恢复该国可可行业的稳定性和专业性。他警告说，如果不采取紧急干预 措施，该行业将面临长期衰退的风险。 （原标题：加纳可可采购商协会呼吁改革） LICOBAG建议的核心是紧急审查可可采购的资金框架。维克图斯建议对目前的融资模式进行审查，以 允许采用混合安排，将旧的本地和国际联合融资机制与目前的结构相结合，从而实现对LBC购买并运送 到港口的可可进行实时付款，为防止持牌采购公司进一步流失。该协会提议引入有限的种子基金制度， 以帮助陷入困境的运营商维持运营。LICOBAG 还呼吁政府提供紧急资金，用于支付已产生的可可费 用。关于财务纪律，他强调，为购买可可筹集的资金必须防止被挪用。该协会还呼吁立即确定农场收购 价，以减少农民、买家和其他利益相关者的不确定性。关于贸易和营销，LICOBAG 敦促可可委员会、 可可营销公司(CMC)和贸易商采取更积极主动的销售策略，并加强监管。该协会强调需要重建该行业 ...

Core Insights - Ghana's total export revenue reached a historic high of $31.1 billion in 2025, a significant increase from $19.1 billion in 2024 [2] - The trade surplus expanded to a record $13.6 billion, driven by strong performance in gold and cocoa exports [2] Export Performance - Gold exports surged from $10.3 billion in 2023 to $20 billion in 2025 [2] - Cocoa exports doubled from $1.9 billion to $3.8 billion, despite a decline in international cocoa prices [2] - Oil exports decreased from $3.8 billion to $2.6 billion due to falling international oil prices [2] - Other categories contributed approximately $3.6 billion to total exports [2] Import Dynamics - Total import expenditure for 2025 was $17.4 billion, with oil imports rising from $4.6 billion in 2024 to $5.1 billion [2] - Non-oil imports increased from $10.7 billion to $12.3 billion during the same period [2] Economic Indicators - Ghana's international reserves reached a record $13.8 billion by the end of 2025 [2] - The current account balance exceeded $900 million, reflecting a robust economic position [2] - The total economic output of Ghana reached $1.4 trillion [2]

Group 1 - Ghana is expanding its cocoa exports to Saudi Arabia, targeting a $1.3 billion chocolate market, aiming to diversify its export base away from traditional European markets [1][2] - The initiative was confirmed by the General Manager of Ghana Cocoa Marketing Company, following participation in an exhibition in Riyadh, which facilitated direct connections between Ghanaian companies and manufacturers in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region [1] - The demand for high-quality cocoa in Saudi Arabia is increasing, driven by consumer interest in premium chocolate products and the reputation of Ghanaian cocoa beans [1] Group 2 - A Saudi-Ghanaian Business Council was established during the exhibition to promote long-term cooperation in cocoa processing and food manufacturing, providing a sustainable framework for business collaboration [2] - Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and its plans for tourism and large-scale events are expected to boost local demand for chocolate and related products, aligning with Ghana's strategy to export cocoa processed goods [2] - The market expansion is part of Ghana's overall strategy to stabilize farmers' incomes and enhance foreign exchange earnings, adjusting its global trade layout to strengthen its role in the global cocoa supply chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices and predicts that several other commodities, including silver, copper, natural gas, coffee, and cocoa, will also experience price increases due to various market factors [1][2][4][5][7]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have risen significantly, reaching over $4,000, with a year-to-date increase of 52%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [1][2]. - Key drivers for gold's price increase include geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East conflicts and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which have heightened market risk aversion [2]. - The expectation of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is anticipated to weaken the dollar's appeal, further boosting gold prices [2]. Group 2: Other Commodities Expected to Rise - Silver is expected to rise due to strong industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where it accounts for 65% of industrial usage [4]. - Copper demand is projected to grow over 60% by 2030, driven by energy transition initiatives and infrastructure upgrades, with supply constraints from mining accidents [4]. - Natural gas prices are forecasted to increase by approximately 10% in Europe and 60% in the U.S. in 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and weather conditions [5]. - Coffee prices are rising due to drought conditions in Brazil, which produces nearly half of the world's Arabica coffee [7]. - Cocoa prices are also increasing due to similar supply issues, with drought affecting production [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investment in commodities can be approached through physical assets like gold bars or coins, ETFs, or futures contracts for other commodities [10]. - The potential impact of rising commodity prices on everyday costs is acknowledged, particularly for coffee and cocoa, while natural gas price increases may affect heating costs [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of risk management in commodity investments, suggesting that investors should allocate a reasonable portion of their assets to commodities [12].

Group 1 - A significant sell-off of precious metals worth over $10 billion is testing the market for 2026, putting pressure on the previously soaring prices of gold and silver [1] - According to JPMorgan's estimates, commodity index-tracking funds are expected to sell approximately $6.1 billion of silver and $5.6 billion of gold during the annual rebalancing period from January 8 to 15 [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) requires annual adjustments to maintain target allocation ratios, leading to necessary buying or selling by funds [1] Group 2 - Gregory Shearer from JPMorgan indicates that silver will face the largest scale of sell-off, estimated to be about 10% of the total value of all open derivative contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) [2] - Cocoa has been reintroduced into the Bloomberg Commodity Index, with funds needing to buy approximately 30% of the open contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) [2] - Concerns exist in the cocoa market regarding potential short covering due to the rebalancing, especially after cocoa prices fell nearly 50% in 2025 following a supply shortage from West Africa [2]

Core Insights - Ghana's trade surplus reached $8.5 billion by October 2025, accounting for 9.7% of its GDP [1] - The strong trade surplus is primarily driven by robust gold export revenues, with gold exports totaling $15.2 billion in the first ten months of 2025 [1] - The international gold price remained high throughout the year, surpassing $4,000 per ounce in October, significantly boosting Ghana's export income [1] Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, Ghana's trade surplus increased by 307% year-on-year, reaching $5.57 billion [1] - Total exports for Ghana amounted to $23.3 billion, with gold exports being the largest contributor, followed by cocoa exports of $2.8 billion and crude oil exports of $2.2 billion [1] - Other export products, including non-traditional goods, totaled $3 billion [1] Import Dynamics - Ghana's total imports reached $14.8 billion, primarily driven by petroleum products and non-petroleum goods [1] - The growth rate of imports was lower than that of exports, contributing to the expansion of the trade surplus [1] - The Bank of Ghana reported that strong trade performance supports external buffers, with international reserves exceeding $11 billion, sufficient to cover approximately 4.8 months of imports [1] Future Outlook - The Bank of Ghana anticipates that the positive trend in trade will continue as long as global gold prices remain high and domestic gold production stays elevated [1]

Agriculture Sector - Cocoa exports are performing strongly, with revenue reaching a historical high of 1.2 billion Kina in 2024 and expected to increase to 2 billion Kina in 2025, driven by production increases in provinces like Bougainville [1] - Global cocoa prices have declined from approximately $10,000 per ton at the beginning of the year to about $6,000 per ton by year-end due to production recovery in Côte d'Ivoire [1] - The coffee industry is facing challenges, with declines in production, yield, and exports despite high global market prices; key measures include the "Freight Assurance Program" launched in July and the establishment of a new coffee processing plant in Morobe Province [1] Mining and Oil Sector - The mining sector, while not in its best year, has made significant contributions to the economy through company income taxes, with the Domestic Revenue Commission collecting around 1.6 billion Kina from major mines, aiming for a total of 2 billion Kina for the year [2] - Investment in the Central Province's lime and cement project exceeds 3 billion Kina, with a final investment decision expected to reduce cement imports by 50% [2] - The PNG LNG project has generated over 5 billion Kina in export revenue this year, while the Papua LNG project's final investment decision has been postponed to early 2026, which is crucial for the future development of the oil sector and meeting long-term demand in Asia [2] Retail, Manufacturing, and SMEs - Retail and manufacturing activities in Port Moresby are relatively subdued, facing intense competition, while the manufacturing sector is hindered by ongoing power outages and high network costs, leading to significant losses [2] - The performance stagnation of state-owned enterprises and infrastructure issues are identified as barriers to economic growth [2] - Access to funding for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) remains a major obstacle, with government support funds struggling to reach entrepreneurs due to banking policy regulations [2] - The geographical advantages of Papua New Guinea present significant trade potential, but overall growth requires the finalization of large resource projects like Papua LNG to stimulate downstream business activities and address critical infrastructure and financing challenges for SMEs [2]