Core Viewpoint - Precious metals like gold and silver continue to perform well into 2026, reaching new highs, prompting the CME to adjust margin requirements to curb speculative trading [2][4][12]. Margin Adjustments - CME has changed the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from fixed amounts to a percentage of the contract's nominal value, effective January 13 [2][12]. - For gold, the initial margin requirement is now set at 5%, resulting in a margin of $23,000 for a standard contract, slightly lower than the previous fixed amount of $24,000 [2][12]. - For silver, the margin requirement has increased to 9%, leading to an initial margin of $38,700 for a standard contract, significantly higher than the previous fixed amount of $32,500 [4][14]. Market Reactions - Despite the margin adjustments, silver prices have surpassed $88, and gold remains above $4,600, indicating strong market demand [4][14]. - Historical trends suggest that frequent margin adjustments by exchanges may signal the nearing end of a bullish phase in the market [4][14]. Bitcoin Developments - Bitcoin has surpassed $95,000, marking a two-month high, with significant purchases by Strategy, which acquired 13,627 bitcoins valued at approximately $1.25 billion [4][14]. - This acquisition has led to a rise in the company's total bitcoin holdings, estimated to exceed $60 billion, positively impacting its stock price [4][14]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. December CPI remained stable at 2.7%, with core CPI at 2.6%, aligning with expectations and limiting the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts [5][15]. - Market expectations indicate a 97% probability that the Fed will maintain current rates in January, supporting the dollar's strength [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. core inflation has slowed down compared to expectations, impacting gold prices and market sentiment, with geopolitical issues remaining a short-term focus for investors [2][4][5]. Inflation Data - The U.S. December CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with expectations and previous values; the core CPI increased by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [5]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains significant, as indicated by the combination of employment and inflation data [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government has advised citizens to evacuate Iran, highlighting rising geopolitical tensions that are causing investor unease [5]. - Ongoing conflicts involving the U.S. and other regions, such as Greenland and Iran, are contributing to the heightened focus on geopolitical risks [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, gold prices initially surged but then retreated, with COMEX February gold futures closing down by 0.34% and SHFE gold rising by 0.14% [2][4]. - A joint statement from multiple central banks was issued in support of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, responding to pressures from the Trump administration regarding the independence of central banks [5]. Margin Changes - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced changes to the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts, shifting from fixed amounts to a percentage of the contract's nominal value; gold margin will be approximately 5% and silver about 9% [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀温和会带来更"鸽"的新主席么？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月，美国通胀低于预期。具体来看：1）食品通胀升温，但前景可控；2）汽车、服 装通胀均回落，核心商品通胀压力有限；3）住房通胀回升，但核心服务通胀压力可控。往前看， 相较于货币政策节奏，关于美联储独立性的博弈更为重要，考虑到近期特朗普有借由对鲍威尔 的诉讼震慑新任主席之意，加之 12 月通胀持续温和为"鸽派"表态进一步扫清障碍，美联储独立 性受损的概率有所增加，美元指数下行压力较大，黄金配置价值再度凸显。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀温和会带来更 2] "鸽"的新主席么？ ——美国 12 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2026 年 1 月 13 日，美国劳工统计局公布 2025 年 12 月份的 CPI 数据：美国 12 月 CPI ...

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, meeting market expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, falling short of expectations[2] - Energy inflation saw a significant decline, with energy prices rising by only 2.3% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from November[4] - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year in December, up 0.5 percentage points from November, indicating a seasonal demand increase[4] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI remained stable, with core goods' year-on-year growth at approximately 1.4%, and core services rising by about 3.03%[4][21] - The price of used cars decreased by 1.1% month-on-month, contributing to the overall stability in core inflation[21] - Housing costs increased by 3.2% year-on-year, reflecting a slight rebound in rental inflation[22] Future Inflation Outlook - Inflation levels may continue to decline due to high base effects in early 2025, but potential rebound pressures exist from fiscal policies and economic support measures[5][36] - The Federal Reserve may tolerate slightly higher inflation to support the economy and labor market, with expectations that inflation will not return to 2% by 2026[42] - Political challenges are emerging for the Federal Reserve, particularly with the upcoming leadership changes and increased scrutiny from the Trump administration[6][48] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential geopolitical tensions leading to unexpected inflation spikes and the possibility of a more severe economic downturn than anticipated[7][49]

Inflation Data Summary - December CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to an average increase of 0.1% in October and November[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%, consistent with the previous value[4] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching the prior year's growth[4] Price Components - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, down from a previous 4.2%[7] - Food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to a prior increase of 2.6%[7] - Core goods prices remained flat, with used car prices dropping by 1.1% month-on-month, indicating weak durable goods demand[8] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 remained stable, with FedWatch indicating an average of 2.2 cuts (56.2 basis points) compared to 2.1 cuts (51.6 basis points) prior to the data release[8] - The overall CPI and core inflation performance aligned with market expectations, indicating a moderate inflation environment[8] Future Outlook - Confirmation of the inflation path requires one to two "cleaner" data windows, with potential upward pressures from delayed economic activity due to government shutdowns and tariff pass-through effects starting in early 2026[9] - Downward pressures include falling crude oil prices and declining food commodity indices, alongside indicators suggesting a downward trend in housing rent CPI growth[9]

环球市场动态 美 国 通 胀 表 现 不 温 不 火 股 票 A 股周二高开低走，结束连涨行情， 航天板块降温；港股震荡微升，医 药、贵金属表现较好；欧洲股市窄 幅震荡，能源股表现强势；美国通 胀较为温和未能推动股市上行，地 缘政治忧虑持续困扰和对鲍威尔的 调查持续困扰市场。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普的言论引发对伊朗供应的担 忧，周二国际油价涨超 2%；金价在 创下历史新高后回落，白银再创纪 录新高，铜价在历史高位附近震荡。 固 定 收 益 周二美国国债持续窄幅上落。美债 早上因 CPI 数据小幅上涨，但很快 回吐涨幅。午后 30 年期美债拍卖 获穏健需求。日本国债走弱。亚洲 债券市场表现坚挺，债券利差普遍 收窄。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 个 股 要 闻 Oklo (OKLO US; 97.09 美元; 目标价: 168 美元) Meta 与 Oklo 达成合作，在俄亥俄州为 AI 提供动 力。早前 Meta (META US) 宣布与 Oklo 等 3 家核电公司合作，在未来协助增加 6.6 吉瓦的发电量，以推动美国在 ...

智通财经APP注意到，由于美国通胀数据弱于预期，支撑了进一步降息的理由，加之地理政治局势依然紧张，白银价格创下历史新高，黄金价格也随之攀 升。 这种白色金属一度上涨3.5%，触及每盎司89.9965美元，而黄金交易价格则接近历史巅峰。美国12月的核心通胀率并未如担心的那样高，尽管经济学家表 示，由于去年年底创纪录的政府长期停摆，数据在人为因素下被压低。 避险需求也受到了美国总统唐纳德.特朗普抓获委内瑞拉领导人、其重新威胁要占领格陵兰岛，以及伊朗可能推翻伊斯兰政权的暴力抗议活动的推动。花旗 集团分析师本周将未来三个月黄金和白银的价格预测分别上调至每盎司5000美元和每盎司100美元。 去年白银表现优于黄金，得益于10月份的空头挤压以及伦敦市场持续的供应紧张，其涨幅接近150%。交易员正在等待美国"232条款"调查的结果，该调查可 能导致对白银征收关税。对潜在征税的担忧导致金属滞留在美国仓库，从而使全球库存进一步收紧。 截至发稿10:25，现货黄金上涨0.8%，至每盎司4,621.92美元。白银上涨3.2%，至89.7457美元，铂金和钯金亦有所上涨。美元现货指数在周二上涨0.2%后持 平。 黄金价格接近历史最高 ...

Group 1: Inflation Overview - December inflation in the U.S. showed a moderate performance, confirming the downward trend in inflation despite concerns over November's data distortion due to government shutdown effects[4] - The overall CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI year-on-year growth was steady at 2.6%, both aligning with expectations[4] - The decline in energy prices, which fell from 4.2% in November to 2.3% in December, significantly contributed to the moderate inflation figures[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics - The prices of used cars, a key indicator, dropped from 3.6% in November to 1.6% in December, indicating a significant easing in core inflation pressures[5] - Food prices increased from 2.6% in November to 3.1% in December, driven by higher dining out costs and seasonal consumption effects[6] - Medical service prices rebounded to 3.5%, reflecting resilience in service consumption despite overall inflation moderation[6] Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The inflation trajectory for 2026 is expected to show moderate declines, influenced by tariff costs being passed to end prices, but countered by falling housing prices and energy prices due to oversupply[7] - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to peak in the first half of 2026, with inflation likely to rise initially before declining in the latter half of the year[7] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The moderate inflation data in December is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in January, as current policy rates are near neutral levels[8] - The labor market remains stable, with no significant deterioration, which does not support the case for further rate cuts[10] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve due to ongoing investigations may also deter premature rate cuts, as this could undermine market confidence[10]

今日周三(1月14日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于89.21一线上方，今日开盘于86.90美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报89.85美元/盎司，上涨3.37%，最高触及89.99美元/盎司，最低下探86.90美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 要恢复降息，美联储官员可能需要看到新的证据显示劳动市场条件正在恶化或者价格压力正在减弱。后 者可能还需要至少再几个月的通胀数据才能显现。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：12月消费者价格指数(CPI)不太可能改变美联储当前的观望态度，因为官 员们很可能希望在降息前看到更多证据，证明通胀正在企稳并逐步下降。 尽管如此，阻力最小的路径仍是上行。白银的首个阻力位将是87.00美元，随后是88.00美元的关口和 89.11美元的历史高点。 美联储在过去三次会议上连续下调基准利率，最近一次是在12月，尽管去年通胀已停止下降。 另一方面，白银的首个支撑位是1月12日高点86.23美元，随后是85.50美元区域。跌破85.50美元则将暴 露80美元支撑。 官员们下调利率，是出于对劳动市场可能出现比预期更大的放缓风险的担忧。 【最新现货 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 99.240, while spot gold opened at $4585.49 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4617.53 per ounce [1] - On the previous trading day, the US dollar index rose by 0.29% to close at 99.186, while spot gold fell by 0.18% to $4594.90 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals showed mixed performance, with spot silver rising by 2.06% to $86.91 per ounce, while platinum and palladium fell by 0.33% to $2329.70 per ounce and 1.32% to $1826.50 per ounce, respectively [1] Group 2 - As of January 13, COMEX gold inventory increased by 4.59 tons to 1128.93 tons, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by 56.41 tons to 13550.91 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings rose by 3.43 tons to 1074.23 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 26.79 tons to 16321.16 tons [2] - The payment direction for deferred compensation fees indicates that Au(t+d), Ag(t+d), and mAu(t+d) are all in a short-to-long payment structure [2] Group 3 - The US CPI growth remained stable in December, with core CPI slightly below expectations, leading to comments from Trump advocating for significant interest rate cuts [3] - The ADP weekly employment report indicated that private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending December 20, 2025 [4] - The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, with Trump stating that all meetings with Iranian officials have been canceled and that Iran will "pay a heavy price" [4][5]