Core Insights - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming various industries, particularly the holiday economy, leading to smarter, more efficient, and personalized consumer experiences [1][5][9] Group 1: AI in Shopping - AI technology enhances smart shopping by enabling personalized recommendations through systems like facial and voice recognition, significantly improving the shopping experience and saving time [1][3] - The integration of AI in online and offline shopping allows for 24/7 customer service, efficient order processing, and targeted advertising based on consumer behavior, increasing conversion rates [3][5] Group 2: AI in Other Sectors - AI plays a crucial role in the tourism and restaurant industries during peak holiday seasons, offering services like travel planning, destination recommendations, and real-time translation [3][5] - In the restaurant sector, AI aids in market analysis, demand forecasting, and inventory management, enhancing operational efficiency and meeting consumer expectations for quality and personalization [3][5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - The digital transformation of the holiday economy is driven by changing consumer demands, with AI providing tailored product recommendations based on individual shopping habits [5][9] - Younger consumers are particularly receptive to AI applications, utilizing smart devices for shopping and entertainment, and benefiting from innovations like virtual fitting rooms [7][9] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - AI significantly improves operational management for businesses during peak holiday periods by enabling real-time inventory monitoring, sales trend forecasting, and supply chain optimization, thus enhancing overall efficiency [9] - The application of AI not only streamlines the shopping experience for consumers but also helps businesses reduce resource waste and create greater commercial value [9]

Core Insights - The overall logistics demand in China shows a steady but slowing growth, with a total social logistics volume of 138.7 trillion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1][2] - The logistics supply remains robust, with the logistics industry revenue reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [4][5] Logistics Demand Trends - In May, the logistics demand growth rate decreased to 5.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating a stabilization in logistics demand recovery [1][2] - Industrial product logistics maintained a steady growth of 5.6% year-on-year in the first five months, with May's growth at 5.5% [2][3] - The logistics for units and residents' goods saw a significant increase, with a total growth of 6.4% in the first five months and 8.3% in May [3] Structural Optimization - The logistics structure is improving, driven by industrial upgrades and supportive policies, with equipment manufacturing logistics demand leading the growth [2][5] - New consumption trends such as live streaming sales and instant retail are maturing, contributing to the acceleration of logistics demand in May [3] Logistics Supply Dynamics - The logistics supply continues to expand, with a logistics industry prosperity index of 50.6% in May, indicating ongoing expansion despite a slight decrease [4][5] - Efficient transportation methods are on the rise, with air cargo transport volume increasing by 16.6% year-on-year in May [4] Future Outlook - The logistics demand is expected to remain stable, supported by policies promoting equipment updates and trade-in programs, although challenges in international logistics and price competition may persist [5] - The logistics prosperity index's business activity expectation remains above 55%, indicating positive market expectations in sectors like intermodal transport and low-altitude economy [5]

Core Insights - The mid-year shopping festivals in both China and the U.S. have become a significant event for the global retail industry, with major promotions like JD's 618 and Amazon's Prime Day occurring simultaneously [2][4] - The summer season is traditionally a peak consumption period in the U.S. and Europe, driven by seasonal demand for summer clothing, outdoor products, and home appliances, as well as holidays and events like Independence Day and graduation [5][4] - TikTok Shop is emerging as a key player in the mid-year promotions, leveraging social commerce strategies such as short videos and live streaming to enhance consumer engagement and drive sales [6][8] Retail Strategies - Retailers utilize mid-year promotions to clear out inventory from the spring and summer seasons, making room for fall collections and reducing storage costs [5][4] - The rise of social commerce platforms like TikTok Shop has diversified promotional strategies, transforming shopping into a social experience and creating a global consumer culture phenomenon [6][8] - TikTok Shop's mid-year promotion, "Deals For You Days," is designed to maximize exposure and sales through user-generated content and social engagement, with significant participation from brands and consumers [9][10] Performance Metrics - In 2024, TikTok Shop's mid-year promotions saw a 220% year-over-year increase in GMV, with live streaming and short video sales also experiencing substantial growth [8][10] - The platform's promotional strategies include significant subsidies for brands, with individual merchants in the U.S. eligible for up to $15,000 in product subsidies [12][13] - TikTok Shop's marketing efforts have resulted in over 11 billion views for the DealsForYouDays topic and 5.3 billion views for the SummerSale topic, indicating strong consumer interest [9][10] Marketing Innovations - TikTok Shop has introduced various promotional tactics, including "super brand days" and "brand gala" plans, to connect quality merchants with top influencers [11][12] - The platform emphasizes a comprehensive marketing approach, combining content-driven strategies with traditional retail tactics to create a complete marketing ecosystem [13] - The introduction of features like "Flash Sales" and diverse discount strategies aims to enhance conversion rates and drive sales during the promotional period [13]

Group 1 - The summer travel market is experiencing a significant increase in demand, with a 70% rise in planned travelers and an 80% increase in transaction volume compared to last year [2] - Family-oriented travel, particularly for children, is expected to dominate the market, with over 60% of travelers being families [2] - The popularity of unique travel experiences is driving demand for customized and high-quality travel products [2][5] Group 2 - Various regions are launching special cultural and tourism activities to stimulate the summer market, including new travel products and promotional measures [4] - Companies are focusing on enhancing their competitiveness by leveraging technology and innovative content in their tourism offerings [6] - The holiday economy is becoming a crucial driver for tourism consumption, emphasizing the need for unique and high-quality tourism products [5][6]

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at the June meeting, with a focus on domestic employment and inflation trends, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting oil prices [2] - The Bank of Japan has decided to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and will slow down its balance sheet reduction starting April 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth and inflation due to tariff uncertainties [3] Energy/Coal Sector - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to lead to a rebound in coal prices, as historical data shows a correlation between oil and coal prices during geopolitical conflicts [3] - The average oil-coal price ratio since 2000 is 3.37, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71, indicating a strong relationship between the two commodities [3] Consumer Sector - In May, China's retail sales reached 4.1 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies and active holiday consumption [6] - The consumer recovery is expected to continue, with a focus on structural opportunities in emerging categories driven by emotional value and technological innovation [6] Transportation Sector - Airlines have seen a steady increase in capacity and a high passenger load factor of 84.6%, with ticket prices improving for eight consecutive weeks [7] - The industry is expected to enter a profitable cycle, supported by low supply growth and effective revenue management by airlines [7] Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector has shown a mild recovery, with a cumulative increase of 1.9% from January to May 2025, ranking 12th among sub-industries [11] - Key trends include focusing on core assets, enhancing local capabilities for overseas markets, and leveraging AI and innovation for growth [11]

Core Insights - The "holiday economy" effect in Shenzhen is showing significant growth, particularly in non-cash payment transactions by foreign individuals, which is driving the city's development as an international consumption center [2][5] Group 1: Growth in Inbound Consumption - As of May 19, 2025, inbound and outbound personnel in Shenzhen exceeded 100 million, with foreign visitors reaching 2.64 million, a year-on-year increase of 41% [2] - In the first five months of 2025, non-cash payment transactions by foreign individuals in Shenzhen totaled nearly 9.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 37%, with transaction volume reaching 71.1 million, up 31% [2] - During the "May Day" holiday, non-cash payment transactions by foreign individuals surged to 2.83 million transactions worth 28.3 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 64% and 58% respectively [3] Group 2: Consumer Demographics - Hong Kong residents remain the primary consumers in Shenzhen, accounting for 68% of transaction volume and 60% of transaction value, with year-on-year increases of 25% and 27% respectively [3][4] - The attractiveness of Shenzhen to Southeast Asian markets is increasing, with South Korea, the United States, and Singapore being the top three source countries, contributing over 40% of the consumption value [3] - Notably, consumption from tourists from Laos and Thailand saw year-on-year increases of 125 times and 17 times respectively in the first five months of 2025 [4] Group 3: Consumption Trends - The primary areas of consumption for Hong Kong residents in Shenzhen are supermarkets and dining, which together account for over 70% of total consumption in the first five months of the year [4] - Transportation and travel-related spending have become significant growth points, with a year-on-year increase of 40% [4] - Foreigners are also keen on shopping, with related consumption growing by 28% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025 [4] Group 4: Policy Impact - Shenzhen is enhancing the cross-border consumption experience by implementing the "immediate refund" policy for departure tax, which has led to a more than 2.1 times increase in sales of tax-refunded goods in the first five months of 2025 [5] - The "immediate refund" sales have surged over 20 times, significantly supporting the local shopping districts and the development of Shenzhen as an international consumption center [5] - The ongoing growth of Shenzhen's "holiday economy" is providing foreign individuals with a more convenient and diverse shopping experience, contributing to the city's ambition to become a global consumption hub [5]

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 17 日 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：5 月经济数据: 消费走强，生产偏弱 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 何康 5 月经济活动数据点评 由于 2024 年 5 月经济活动基数走低，今年 5 月经济数据总体呈现出"环比 放缓、同比稳健"的态势，具体看，外需和工业生产环比减速，地产销售和 投资增长同比降幅走阔，而消费增长大幅超预期，但部分受一次性因素提 振。随着"抢出口"退坡，关税不确定性下出口订单增长放缓，5 月出口、 发电量、工业增加值同比同步回落。同时，虽然广义（一般公共预算+政府 性基金）财政支出同比保持高速增长，但环比增长在 4 月后有所放缓，短期 对总需求贡献有所回落（图表 1）。内外需因素共振下，短期增长不确定性加 强，市场主体风险偏好边际回落，也部分可以解释为何地产销售环比减速。 社零同比增长较为亮眼，主要受益于"618"错位及五一假期出行活跃同比 增速超预期增长。考虑到后续"以旧换新"政策退坡、整治违规聚餐等政策 的影响、社零高增的持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant recovery in China's consumer market in May 2024, driven by government subsidies and promotional events, leading to the highest growth rates in retail sales and dining revenue since the beginning of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Market Performance - In May 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate of the year [1]. - The retail sales of goods amounted to 36,748 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, while dining revenue was 4,578 billion yuan, increasing by 5.9% [1]. - The positive trends in both goods and dining consumption were attributed to the effects of government subsidies and holiday consumption during the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat Festival" [1][7]. Group 2: Impact of Government Subsidies - The high growth rate in May's retail sales was primarily driven by government subsidies and e-commerce promotions, with significant increases in basic and upgraded goods [3]. - Sales of staple food, jewelry, and sports entertainment products saw growth rates of 14.6%, 21.8%, and 28.3%, respectively [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been effective, with retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment increasing by 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively [4]. Group 3: E-commerce and Online Sales - The "6.18" online shopping festival, which began on May 13, significantly boosted online retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% from January to May [5]. - The integration of government subsidies and promotional discounts was a key strategy for e-commerce platforms to attract consumers [5]. Group 4: Dining Consumption Trends - Dining revenue, accounting for about 11% of total retail sales, achieved a 5.9% year-on-year growth in May, the highest monthly growth in a year [7]. - The dining market is experiencing intense competition, with a shift towards family dining and high-cost performance restaurants as business dining declines [8]. - The number of domestic tourists increased by 6.4% during the "May Day" holiday, contributing to the growth in dining consumption [8][9]. Group 5: Tourism and Inbound Travel - The increase in inbound tourism, particularly with the expansion of visa-free entry policies, has positively impacted the consumer market [9]. - The number of inbound tourists utilizing visa-free policies grew by over 70% during the "May Day" holiday, leading to a significant rise in dining and retail transactions [9].

北京大学经济学院教授苏剑告诉21世纪经济报道记者，5月份的消费增速数据比较高，是今年以来的消费增速最高水平，是好现 象。另外，从5月份的商品消费数据来看，拉动消费增长的政策效应明显，和国补相关的品类都得到了很好的两位数增长。国补 叠加大促激发消费 5月份商品零售额6.5%的高增速，主要得益于国补和电商年中大促的拉动。 国家统计局数据显示，基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增势较好，限额以上单位粮油食品类、金银珠宝类、体育娱乐用品类 商品零售额分别增长14.6%、21.8%、28.3%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材 类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 5月份商品零售额6.5%的高增速，主要得益于国补和电商年中大促的拉动。 6月16日，国家统计局发布5月份经济数据。其中，5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，达到2024年以来的 最高增速。按消费类型分，5月份，商品零售额36748亿元，同比增长6.5%，是2024年以来的最高增速；餐饮收入4578亿元，增 长5.9%，是2024年4月以来的最高增 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the vibrant consumption market in Xinjiang during the Gulebong Festival, with a stable supply of goods and a significant increase in consumer enthusiasm [1][2][4] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a sales increase of 3.6% compared to the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [1][4] - Various promotional activities and events were organized by businesses, such as the "Summer Fire Shopping Discounts" in Urumqi, which included over 50 promotional events [2][4] Group 2 - The integration of policy and market initiatives has effectively stimulated consumption, with local governments issuing electronic consumption vouchers and subsidies to boost spending [4][5] - The "old for new" policy has been a strong driver of consumption growth, with 181.1 million units applied for subsidies, leading to a direct consumption increase of 167.2 billion [5] - The demand for leisure activities, such as outdoor camping and cultural tourism, has surged, with significant sales increases in related equipment and services [6][7] Group 3 - The family-oriented consumption trend has been a key factor in driving shopping mall traffic, with innovative experiential activities attracting more visitors [10] - Urumqi's shopping centers reported a 40% increase in sales during the festival, driven by family-friendly events and activities [10] - The development of night markets and rural tourism projects has further enriched the consumer experience and stimulated local economies [10][11]