根据联邦公开市场委员会9月16日—17日会议纪要，"多数人判断，在今年剩余时间进一步放松政策可能 是合适的"。会议记录还显示，"多数与会者强调通胀前景面临上行风险"。 与会官员以11比1的投票结果决定将利率下调25个基点至4%—4.25%的区间，这是今年的首次降息。新 上任的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）主张一次性降息50个基点，因而对该决定投了反对票。 会议后发布的新预测显示，按中位数估计，官员预计到今年年底还将再降两次各25个基点。不过，预测 也体现出委员会内部的分歧：在19名与会者中，有6人预计2025年只会降息一次或不再降息。 美联储又传重磅消息。 重点内容如下。 10月9日凌晨，美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议 上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿，但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示，今年内有意进一步降息，但出于对通胀的担忧，许多人仍保持谨 慎态度。 自9月会议以来，包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到，劳动力市场 的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则认为，中性利率低于普遍认知，这意味着美联储需 ...

会后，多位美联储高官相继发声。副主席杰斐逊与鲍曼认为劳动力市场的强劲表现支持进一步降息；米 兰则认为中性利率水平低于此前估计，美联储需更快降息。特朗普及其政府成员也多次呼吁立即降息。 市场方面，联邦基金期货显示投资者普遍预期，美联储将在10月和12月再次降息。纪要最后强调，决策 者将继续在促进就业与控制通胀目标之间寻求平衡。值得注意的是，本次会议召开于美国政府关门前两 周，而政府停摆已导致关键经济数据的发布被迫中止。 智通财经APP获悉，周三，美联储9月会议纪要显示，多数官员认为在今年剩余时间内进一步降息是合 适的，但同时强调通胀风险仍偏向上行，显示决策层在货币政策上持谨慎态度。 纪要指出，"多数委员认为，在今年余下时间继续放松货币政策可能是适当的。"不过，"多数与会者强 调，通胀前景仍存在上行风险。"会上，美联储以11票对1票的结果决定将基准利率下调25个基点至 4.00%至4.25%区间，这是今年首次降息。唯一的反对票来自新任理事米兰，他主张降息50个基点。 会议公布的最新预测显示，按中值计算，美联储官员预计年内还将有两次各25个基点的降息，但委员会 内部分歧明显，19位与会者中有6人预计2025年仅会降 ...

美联储官员对利率未来走向的分歧越来越大，但多数人认为，今年有必要进一步降息。周三公布的美联 储9月会议纪要显示，委员会正在努力应对相互矛盾的经济信号，并在顽固的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场 哪个是最紧迫的问题上难以达成共识。会议纪要显示，美联储官员一致认为，鉴于近期疲弱的就业数 据，有必要降息一次，但对于未来路径官员产生分歧。不过，会议纪要显示，"大多数人认为，在今年 剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的。"然而，一些政策制定者"指出，从若干指标来看，金融状况 表明货币政政策并非特别具有限制性，他们认为有必要采取谨慎的态度"。根据9月份的预测，10名美联 储官员暗示，他们预计今年还会再降息两次，9人认为应该会降息一次或更少。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储会议纪要提到，关于通胀前景，与会者普遍预计，在适当货币政策下，短期内通胀将保持在较高 水平，随后逐步回落至2%。一些与会者指出，企业联系人表示，由于关税导致投入成本上升，他们将 逐步提高价格。尽管今年关税上调对通胀的影响仍存在不确定性，但大多数与会者预计这些影响将在明 年底前完全显现。一些与会者认为，劳动力市场预计不会成为通胀压力的来源。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chicago Fed estimates the unemployment rate for September to be 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market according to Federal Reserve data [1]

Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Goolsbee stated that the latest internal research indicates the U.S. labor market remains stable, suggesting a robust overall economic growth [1] - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of future interest rate cuts, with some officials concerned about a potential weakening labor market while others focus on high inflation [1] - The median forecast from the dot plot after last month's monetary policy meeting indicates two rate cuts are expected in 2025, with Goolsbee emphasizing significant room for rate reductions if inflation moves towards the 2% target [1] Group 2 - Due to the government shutdown, official economic data releases are delayed, prompting Federal Reserve officials to seek alternative data for decision-making, with Goolsbee mentioning that the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged in September [1] - Mortgage rates in the U.S. have risen for the second consecutive week, with the average 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.34%, up from 6.3% the previous week [1] - Despite rising mortgage rates, homebuyers are responding to the significant drop in loan rates earlier in the year, as evidenced by a five-month high in existing home sales contracts in August, although many buyers remain cautious due to concerns over borrowing costs and economic outlook [1] Group 3 - Analysts predict that mortgage rates are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term due to volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and the government shutdown [2] - The timing of the government shutdown is particularly sensitive, coinciding with the anticipated first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which could create uncertainty for future central bank decisions if key data releases are delayed [2] - It is noted that the Federal Reserve operates independently, and the October meeting will not be directly affected, but prolonged shutdowns could amplify potential impacts on the market and policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in formulating interest rate policy amid a weak labor market and high inflation, compounded by the potential delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve's Challenges - The government shutdown may delay the release of important economic data, including the employment report, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2]. - Federal Reserve officials are concerned about whether the labor market has weakened enough to warrant recession fears, and how much they can lower interest rates without exacerbating inflation [2][3]. - Alternative data sources, such as ADP and Indeed, are being utilized to gauge labor market dynamics, but inflation-related data remains scarce [2][3]. Group 2: Divergence in Federal Reserve's Policy Actions - In the previous month, the Federal Reserve voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [4]. - The median forecast among Federal Reserve officials suggests two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding the frequency of future cuts [4]. - Some officials express hesitation in making further policy adjustments due to the lack of reliable data, indicating a potential preference to maintain the current policy stance [4][5]. Group 3: Perspectives from Economists - Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve official, believes that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates again in October due to concerns about the labor market, emphasizing the difficulty in proving that the labor market is out of danger without key employment data [5]. - Economists highlight that the Federal Reserve is not making decisions blindly; they are actively seeking information and have previously navigated government shutdowns by utilizing available resources [5]. - The interruption in data releases may lead to increased market volatility, which could further influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5].

Core Insights - In September, the U.S. private sector experienced the largest decline in employment in two and a half years, indicating a weakening labor market, exacerbated by a government shutdown that has led to data reporting issues [1][3] - The ADP report revealed a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with economists' expectations of an increase of 45,000 jobs [1][3] - The August employment data was revised down from an initial increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000 [1] Employment Sector Analysis - Multiple sectors saw job reductions in September, with the education and healthcare sectors adding 33,000 jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [3][4] - The leisure and hospitality sector lost 19,000 jobs due to the end of the vacation season, while other service sectors decreased by 16,000 jobs, professional and business services by 13,000, trade, transportation, and utilities by 7,000, and construction by 5,000 [3][4] - Service providers reduced 28,000 jobs, while goods-producing industries saw a decrease of 3,000 jobs [4] Business Size Impact - Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees lost 40,000 jobs, while larger companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000 jobs [4] Economic Growth Context - Despite a strong economic growth rate of 3.8% in Q2, the employment data reflects a cautious hiring attitude among U.S. employers [4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects a Q3 growth rate of 3.9% [4] Labor Market Concerns - The current unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, but concerns about the labor market are increasing, with risks of labor demand falling below supply [6] - The market had anticipated an increase of 51,000 jobs in the upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll report, which includes government jobs [6] Wage Growth Insights - Despite the slowdown in hiring, wages grew by 4.5% year-over-year in September, remaining stable compared to August, although the wage growth rate for job switchers fell to 6.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from August [6] Data Reporting Adjustments - The unexpected decline in employment numbers may also be attributed to data analysis issues, with ADP recalibrating past employment statistics based on the BLS's September benchmark data [6][7] - The QCEW data, which is used for annual adjustments of overall employment data, indicated a significant reduction of 911,000 jobs as of March this year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Collins expresses an openness to further interest rate cuts, anticipating a reduction in price pressures sometime next year [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Policy - Collins supports the recent decision to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, indicating that this move aids in balancing employment and inflation targets [1] - She suggests that a further modest reduction in policy rates may be appropriate this year, contingent on data validation [1] - Economic Outlook - Collins emphasizes the need for a moderate tightening policy stance to restore price stability while minimizing risks to the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve and the market have diverging views on interest rate cuts, with investors expecting a cut in October while some Fed officials remain cautious about inflation [1][2] - Several regional Fed presidents have expressed concerns about high inflation, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach between preventing excessive tightening and combating inflation [1][2] - The latest data shows persistent inflation, with August PCE inflation rising 2.7% year-on-year and core PCE inflation increasing 2.9%, both above the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 2 - There is a clear division among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some predicting three cuts this year while others expect two or fewer [3] - Officials leaning towards rate cuts cite signs of weakness in the labor market, with concerns about the potential impact on employment [3] - The upcoming September inflation and employment data will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making, but potential government shutdowns could delay these key economic releases [4]