越来越多的美联储委员暗示对进一步放松政策持谨慎态度，理由是仍担心通胀，以及在今年两次降息后劳动力市场出现相对稳定迹象，这促使金融市场认为12月降息的概率降至50%以下。一直坚定支持降息的旧金山联储主席戴利表示，在下次政策会议召开前大约四周做出任何决定都“为时过早”。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利称，鉴于经济的韧性，他10月时反对降息，并且对12月会议持观望态度。包括亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克在内的无投票权决策者也表示倾向于维持利率不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased slightly, while other base metals mostly declined, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the reopening of the U.S. government [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On November 13, LME three-month copper rose by $12, or 0.11%, closing at $10,956 per ton [2]. - During the trading session, copper prices briefly surpassed the psychological threshold of $11,000, reaching $11,018 per ton for the first time this month before retracting [1]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum increased by $2, or 0.07%, closing at $2,896.50 per ton [2]. - In contrast, three-month zinc decreased by $20, or 0.65%, to $3,055.00 per ton, and three-month lead fell by $17.50, or 0.84%, to $2,078.00 per ton [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Analysts emphasize that strong demand, particularly from major consumer countries, is crucial for sustaining price increases [4]. - Investors are awaiting key economic data from China, including new home prices, retail sales, and industrial output [5]. - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President noted mixed economic signals, with inflation around 3% and pressures in certain labor market sectors [5]. Group 4: Aluminum Price Forecast - ANZ raised its short-term aluminum price target from $2,700 to $2,900 per ton due to strong demand from manufacturing, construction, and automotive sectors [5]. - The bank forecasts aluminum prices could reach $3,000 per ton by June 2026, driven by tightening supply against rising demand [5].

期货市场的定价也随之调整。根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数据，在官员密集发表偏谨慎言论后，交易 员对美联储在12月再次降息的押注，从此前逾六成回落至约五成附近，反映市场对 12 月降息的信心正 在降温。 官员集体降温12月降息预期 在印第安纳州埃文斯维尔大学的一场活动上，穆萨莱姆表示，经过今年两次降息后，"政策利率已更接 近中性，而非轻度紧缩"。在他看来，美国通胀目前仍在3%左右，高于2%的目标，"仍需要对抗偏高的 通胀，同时为劳动力市场提供一定支持"。他预计，美国经济在四季度会略显疲弱，但明年一季度有望 回到趋势增速甚至略高水平。 穆萨莱姆坦言，前期支持降息更多是出于对就业的担忧，而在通胀黏性仍存、经济表现相对有韧性的背 景下，接下来"需要更加谨慎"，以防政策过度宽松。 当地时间11月13日，多位美联储官员先后发声，为市场迅速升温的降息预期"泼冷水"。 在其中最受关注的一场讲话中，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆（Alberto Musalem）重申，他认 为当前利率水准"更接近中性，而不是明显偏紧"，意味着在不过度放松的前提下，美联储可以继续观 望，但进一步大幅降息的空间有限。 Crossmark公司 ...

克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率稳定，以继续对通胀施压，将物价增速拉回2%的目 标。她指出，尽管劳动力市场存在一定隐忧，高企的通胀依然顽固，尤其对低收入和中等收入家庭造成 持续冲击。哈马克认为，当前利率水平"几乎算不上限制性"，并暗示中性利率可能高于多数政策制定者 的估计，"为了保持政策的限制性，需要让利率维持在当前水平"。 哈马克预计，通胀压力将持续到今年年底甚至延续至明年初。她提到，企业此前已吸收了部分由关税引 发的成本上涨，但如今越来越多的企业寻求将这些成本转嫁给消费者，这可能使物价压力更加顽固。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储内部对下一步政策路径的分歧愈发明显，多位地区联储主席周四先后发表讲 话，就通胀压力、劳动力市场韧性以及利率是否应继续下调提出不同看法。在最新一轮降息后，美联储 基准利率目前位于3.75%至4%区间，但决策者对于该区间是否仍具"限制性"并无共识。 相比之下，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里则对10月的降息本身持保留态度。他在接受采访时直言，鉴 于经济表现依然强劲，他当时并不支持降息。他表示，尚未决定下月议息会议将如何投票，"取决于数 据走向，我可以支持降息，也可以支持按兵不动， ...

美联储卡什卡利：似乎劳动力市场存在一些明显的薄弱环节。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on Oct. 29, 2025 in Washington, DC.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when he said a December rate cut wasn't in the bag.Recent remarks from Powell's colleagues point to plenty of apprehension over whether the central bank should deliver its third consecutive easing of policy when it meets Dec. 9-10.As a result, markets have re ...

Core Insights - The labor market in certain industries appears to be under pressure according to Federal Reserve's Kashkari [1] Industry Summary - Some sectors within the labor market are experiencing stress, indicating potential challenges for employment and economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly cautious, with market expectations for a December rate cut now at approximately 55% due to concerns over inflation and a stable labor market following two rate cuts this year [2][5][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, previously a strong advocate for rate cuts, indicated that it is "too early" to make a decision before the next policy meeting [5]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed that the threshold for further rate cuts is "relatively high" unless there is clear evidence of labor market deterioration, suggesting that policy rates may need to remain unchanged for a while [5][6]. - Collins' comments highlight deepening divisions within the Fed regarding the consensus on further rate cuts, reflecting a lack of agreement among officials [5][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Collins' remarks and guidance from the White House, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have diminished significantly [6]. - Short-term interest rate futures indicate a 55% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 10, suggesting increased uncertainty regarding the rate path [7]. - Apollo's chief economist noted that 55% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) components have increased by more than 3%, complicating the Fed's ability to justify a rate cut given its inflation target of 2% [7].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月13日欧洲上午中段交易时段，美国国债收益率趋稳】此时美国政府即将重新开放，但谨慎情绪蔓 延。金融市场策略师Eric Chia称，市场仍保持谨慎，关注点转向待发布的积压数据，这些数据或显示劳 动力市场和整体需求疲软。 这种不安情绪源于本周疲软的ADP报告，该报告显示截至十月下旬四周 内，美国私营部门平均每周裁员11,250个。 ...

美联储哈玛克：对劳动力市场感到担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...