智通财经5月27日电，美国5月谘商会消费者信心指数为98，预期87，前值86。 ...

美国5月谘商会消费者信心指数将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Group 1 - The US President Trump has decided to abandon the threat of imposing a 50% tariff on EU imports starting next month, which led to a temporary drop in gold prices to around $3323, but buying support and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine helped gold prices recover, closing at $3337.93 per ounce on Monday [1] - On Tuesday morning, spot gold showed slight gains, trading around $3340.70 per ounce [2] - The US dollar index fell to 98.55 on Monday, marking a new low since April 29, which also provided support for gold prices [4] Group 2 - The trade negotiation window between the US and EU is set to last until July 9, with EU Commission President von der Leyen indicating a willingness to act swiftly and decisively in negotiations, contingent on Trump returning to the original 90-day negotiation period [6] - ECB President Lagarde stated that Trump's erratic policies present a unique opportunity to strengthen the euro's international status, suggesting that European decision-makers are looking to leverage the situation to enhance the euro's position [7] - A recent study by the German Economic Institute indicates that Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a cumulative loss of €200 billion for the German economy from 2025 to 2028, potentially increasing to €250 billion if the EU implements reciprocal measures [8]

德国6月Gfk消费者信心指数、瑞士4月贸易帐将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of recent economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in manufacturing, consumer confidence, and housing sales, which indicate mixed economic signals across these regions [4][10][11]. Group 1: US Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations with a preliminary value of 52.3, compared to an expected 49.9 and a previous value of 50.2 [4][10]. - April existing home sales were below expectations at an annualized rate of 4 million units, while new home sales were better than expected at 743,000 units, revised down from 724,000 units [4][10]. - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April matched expectations with a month-on-month change of -1%, revised from -0.7% to -0.8% [4][10]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone slightly beat expectations at 49.4, compared to an expected 49.2 and a previous value of 49 [11]. - The consumer confidence index for May recorded -15.2, better than the expected -16 and revised from -16.7 to -16.6 [11]. - April CPI final value met expectations at 2.2% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.7%, revised from a previous value of 2.4% [11]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 49, up from a previous value of 48.7, while the services PMI decreased to 50.8 from 52.4 [5]. - Core machinery orders for March significantly exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 13%, compared to an expected decrease of 1.6% [5]. - April CPI was slightly above expectations at 3.6% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Indices - The US WEI index fell to 1.9% for the week ending May 17, down from 2.07% and 2.56% in previous weeks [15]. - The German WAI index also declined to -0.29% for the week ending May 18, compared to -0.08% and -0.04% in prior weeks [16]. Group 5: Demand Indicators - US Redbook retail sales showed a slight year-on-year decline to 5.4%, down from 5.8% and 6.9% in previous weeks [17]. - Global flight numbers increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with approximately 236,700 flights executed as of May 23 [20]. - US mortgage rates rose slightly to 6.86% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, up from 6.81% and 6.76% in previous weeks [24]. Group 6: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly better than expected at 227,000, compared to an expectation of 230,000 and a previous value of 229,000 [26]. - Continued claims rose to 1.903 million, up from a previous value of 1.867 million [26]. Group 7: Price Trends - Global commodity prices saw a slight increase, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 0.2% [28]. - US gasoline prices increased to $3.04 per gallon, reflecting a 1.8% rise from the previous week [28]. Group 8: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed a slight tightening, with indices at 0.165 and 1.2 respectively [31]. - The long-term bond yield spread between Italy and Germany narrowed, while the spread between the US and Japan remained stable, and the US and Eurozone spread widened [37].

Group 1 - The median consumer inflation expectation in South Korea for May has dropped to its lowest level since January 2022 [1] - The consumer confidence index in South Korea for May recorded a value of 101.8, marking the highest level since October 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the reassessment of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the anticipated increase in federal debt due to large-scale tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1% due to rising fiscal risks [1] - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased corporate foreign exchange transactions indicating heightened trading activity [1] - The US PMI preliminary reading for May exceeded expectations, although Moody's downgrade has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Group 2: China Economic Indicators - China's cross-border capital inflow remains strong, with a stable goods trade surplus [1] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - The volume of foreign capital in Chinese bond custody has rebounded, indicating improved foreign investment sentiment [1] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for April was reported at 2.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The preliminary composite PMI for May was recorded at 49.5, with the services PMI at 48.9, indicating a contraction in the services sector [1] - The European Commission has revised down its growth forecasts for the next two years [1] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's manufacturing sector remains in contraction, with the May PMI data showing a slight recovery but still below the neutral line [1] - The services and composite PMIs in Japan have declined [1] - Japan's April exports grew by 2% year-on-year, while the CPI for April was reported at 3.6% year-on-year [1] Group 5: Currency Outlook - The US dollar is expected to maintain a weak position in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The Japanese yen shows short-term momentum [1] - The decline in US credit is unexpectedly strengthening the euro, with attention on the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations [1]

何时降息？ 仅从美联储官员的讲话来看，他们对美联储短期下调利率的态度并不乐观。 一场会议 多位官员表态 5月20日，亚特兰大联储2025年金融市场会议（FMC）在佛罗里达州费南迪纳比奇举行。出席会议的有 多位美联储官员以及研究机构和学术界的专家学者，其中包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊 （Philip N. Jefferson）、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（Raphael W. Bostic）、克利夫兰联储主席贝斯·哈马克（Beth M. Hammack）和旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary C. Daly）。 哈马克表示，她正在根据各种情景评估经济前景，包括关税是否会刺激通胀一次性或更持久地上升。她 强调，未来几个月官员们仍将掌握"大量"信息。"现在我认为我们能采取的最佳行动就是坐下来仔细研 究数据，与我们的社区互动，听听他们的想法，听听他们所做的选择，看看所有这些是如何在整体数据 中结合在一起的。"哈马克说。 戴利的发言和哈马克相似，她认为美联储应该保持"中心地位，并准备灵活行动——但不要在不需要的 时候突然或仓促行动，因为那时我们掌握的信息还不足以支撑决策"。 而博斯蒂克的态度似乎最能解释美联储为何按兵不动："我 ...

欧元区5月消费者信心指数初值-15.2，预期-16，前值-16.7。 ...

智通财经5月20日电，欧元区5月消费者信心指数初值为负15.2，前月为负16.7。 ...