特朗普关税谈判团队发生"内斗"了？ 美国财长贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔之间的分歧和竞争，正让美日贸易谈判陷入"三 头马车"困局。 据媒体6月6日援引接近谈判的消息人士透露，美方三位高官之间的公开分歧已经严重影响了谈判进程： "有一次，三位内阁官员在日方面前暂停了与日方的谈判，开始当面争论。" 更令日方困惑的是，三人有时会分别向日本施压要求让步，缺乏统一的策略和立场。 这种内部分歧并非偶然。另一位接近日本政府的消息人士推测，他们可能在试图讨好特朗普总统。值得 注意的是，Bessent和Lutnick曾是财政部长职位的竞争对手，这种历史恩怨可能延续到了贸易谈判中。 立场迥异的"三重奏" 三位官员的贸易理念存在根本性差异。特朗普指定贝森特领导关税谈判，这位前对冲基金高管被视为具 有市场意识的温和派。 相比之下，卢特尼克在贸易问题上以强硬派著称。在接受媒体采访时，他曾表示即使关税导致经济衰退 也是"值得的"。 格里尔名义上是美国贸易政策的负责官员。他是第一届特朗普政府贸易代表Robert Lighthizer的得力助 手。然而这一次，格里尔的角色有所削弱，特朗普此前曾表示卢特尼克直接负责贸易代表办公室。 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美国扩大移民限制清单哈佛外籍学生签证遭波及 ·欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至2% ·美国4月贸易逆差缩至616亿美元 ·美国初请失业金意外攀升 【市场资讯】 ·美国白宫宣布全面限制阿富汗、缅甸、伊朗等12国公民入境，并部分限制布隆迪等7国人员。特朗普同 步签署公告，收紧哈佛大学外籍学生签证政策，此举被解读为针对移民与教育领域的"国家安全审查"升 级。 ·堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周四表示担心关税可能重新引发通胀，称价格上涨压力可能在未来几个月显 现，但其全部影响可能要更久之后才能完全显现。这番讲话表明，施密德可能倾向于维持美联储政策利 率不变。 ·COMEX黄金期货下跌0.68%报3376.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货上涨3.31%报35.795美元/盎司。 ·COMEX黄金期货下跌0.68%报3376.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货上涨3.31%报35.795美元/盎司。 ·2年期美债收益率上涨6.19个基点报3.924%，5年期美债收益率上涨7.13个基点报3.995%，10年期美债收 益率上涨3.93个基点报4.395%，30年期美债收益率上涨0.61个基点报4.883%。 · ...

欧洲央行管委艾斯克里瓦：关注贸易政策对欧元区经济的影响。 ...

欧洲央行管委Escriva：正关注（美国总统特朗普挑起的）贸易政策对欧元区经济的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CIBC Macro believes that Canadian exports have reached a peak of weakness, with a potential for rebound in the coming months, but exports are expected to remain low through the remainder of 2025 unless there is a change in U.S. trade policy [1] Trade Data Summary - In April, nominal export values fell by 10.8%, with a seasonally adjusted decline of 9.1% [1] - Out of 11 industries, 10 experienced record declines in exports, with the automotive and industrial machinery sectors seeing the largest drops [1] Economic Impact - The poor trade data from April poses risks to the expectation of a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Canada [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented a 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, increasing costs and uncertainty for businesses reliant on these metals for manufacturing, construction, and machinery [1][2] - The tariffs are part of a series of trade policies by the Trump administration, which claims that these measures will stimulate domestic production and create jobs, despite manufacturers expressing concerns over operational difficulties [2][5] - A canning company in the U.S. has reported that the increased tariffs will raise production costs for products like baby formula and dog food, leading to further price hikes for consumers [2][5] Group 2 - The automotive industry is significantly impacted by the tariffs, with steel being a major component in vehicles, potentially leading to price increases of $2,000 to $4,000 per new car [3] - The canning company has had to delay upgrading aging equipment due to the tariffs, highlighting the unpredictability and instability that these policies create for small businesses [5]

Core Insights - In May, U.S. private sector created only 37,000 new jobs, significantly below expectations and marking the smallest increase in over two years, attributed to trade policies making companies hesitant in hiring [1][3] - The majority of new jobs in May came from the service sector, particularly leisure and hospitality, while manufacturing and natural resources/mining saw job losses [1] - The report indicates a potential weakening labor market amid increasing economic uncertainty as employers reduce hiring [3] Employment Data Summary - In May, construction employment increased by 6,000, down from 16,000 in April; manufacturing jobs decreased by 3,000, following a 4,000 increase in April; trade/transportation/utilities jobs fell by 4,000, after a 21,000 increase in April; financial services added 20,000 jobs, consistent with April; professional/business services saw a decrease of 17,000 jobs, compared to a 2,000 decrease in April [1] - Year-over-year wage growth for construction workers was 4.6% in May, down from 4.7% in April; manufacturing wage growth remained at 4.6%; trade/transportation/utilities wage growth was 4.2%, down from 4.3%; financial services wage growth increased to 5.2% from 5.1%; professional/business services wage growth decreased to 4.2% from 4.3% [2]

Core Insights - The palm oil production forecasts for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand remain unchanged, indicating stability in output levels [1] - Weather conditions and trade policy changes are identified as critical factors influencing market supply and demand, as well as future price trends [1] Group 1 - The palm oil production estimates for the three major producing countries are stable, suggesting no immediate changes in supply dynamics [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of external factors such as weather and trade policies in shaping the palm oil market [1]

消息面： 周二公布的美国4月JOLTs职位空缺录得139.1万人，高于市场预期710万人，前值位720万人；美国4月工厂订单 月率录得-3.7%，低于市场预期-3.1%，前值位3.4%。 行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（6月3日）冲高回落震荡收跌，开盘价3374.39美元/盎司，最高价3392.13美元/盎司，最低价 3333.10美元/盎司，收盘价3350.27美元/盎司。 评论称，美国4月份职位空缺意外增加，增幅相当大，招聘人数也有所增加，表明尽管经济不确定性加剧，但 对工人的需求仍然健康。美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，就业空缺从3月份修正后的720万个增加到739 万个，高于710万个的预期。职位空缺的增加是由专业和商业服务、医疗保健和社会救助等私营行业推动的。 虽然州和地方教育导致政府总职位空缺减少，但联邦政府职位空缺增加。职位空缺的增加，加上稳定的招聘和 低失业率，支持了美联储关于就业市场状况良好的说法。然而，失业人员预计需要更长的时间才能找到工作， 经济学家预计，在特朗普总统征收关税的重压下，未来几个月劳动力市场将更加明显地疲软。 美联储贴现利率会议纪要：几位理事就与关税相关的预期价格压力发表了评论 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is to be cautious due to geopolitical and trade policy changes, with prices showing a volatile pattern. The recommendation is to take a wait - and - see approach [1][3] - For nickel, the short - term view is that it is expected to be strong, with the price showing a bottom - up trend and is predicted to run strongly in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of Shanghai gold dropped from 790 yuan/gram to 780 yuan/gram, and New York gold fell below 3400 US dollars. The price opened high and went low [3] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks escalated during the Dragon Boat Festival (including intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict and tense Middle - East situation), and US trade policies became more aggressive (Trump announced to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4). However, the market's sensitivity to US tariff policies may have decreased, and there is a large long - short divergence in the market. Technically, the price is approaching the high of the medium - term downward track, with strong pressure and high willingness for long - position holders to close their positions [3] - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the daily view is volatile and weak. The recommended view is to wait and see [1][3] Nickel - **Price Movement**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the nickel price opened high and went low during the day and strengthened at night, with the main contract price oscillating between 121,000 - 122,000 yuan [5] - **Core Logic**: Before the festival, the nickel price dropped significantly due to rumors of an increase in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, but the rumors did not impact the Indonesian nickel ore price. Technically, the short - term price bottomed out and rebounded, and the technical support at the 120,000 - yuan mark is still effective. When non - ferrous metals generally fell yesterday, nickel was relatively strong, and it strengthened along with other non - ferrous metals at night [5] - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term view is volatile, and the daily view is upward. The recommended view is to be bullish in the short term [1][5]