换资前言： 利润才是检验实力的唯一标准，不管分析报告多么的专业，还是文章读起来多么的深入人心，都不能改 变我们追求利润的目的。智者务其实，愚者争虚名，分析师不是作家，不需要多么华丽的语言去感动他 的客户，只需要用利润证明自己，市场变化莫测，优秀的分析师尽可能把握每一波的行情，回报大家， 让你从容不迫面对市场。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（11月21日）美盘交易时段，黄金价格保持稳定。此前美联储官员为12月会议降息敞开大门，现货 黄金盘中报4081.35美元/盎司，涨幅0.10%，日内最高触及4101美元/盎司。美联储官员释放12月可能降 息的信号，推动鸽派押注升温，现货黄金价格飙升至4100美元附近。美国经济数据显示经济活动保持韧 性，但消费者信心疲软，这加剧了市场对美联储下一轮政策行动的不确定性。由于10月CPI报告缺失， 市场被迫在其他数据上寻找"锚"。下周的PCE通胀数据在美联储决策框架中的边际权重明显升高，一旦 读数偏软，可能重新点燃对12月降息的押注，进而压低无风险利率，对风险资产构成一定支撑，并阶段 性打压美元。与此同步，美国消费者信心的变化被赋予更高权重：若 ...

中新网11月10日电(记者 宫宏宇)据路透社报道，密西根大学一份调查显示，11月美国消费者信心指数从 10月的53.6降至50.3，为2022年6月以来最低水平，低于预测值53.2。不同政治立场的家庭都担心史上持 续时间最长的政府停摆对经济带来的负面影响。 路透社指，目前美国政府停摆已导致数以百万计的低收入家庭包括食品券在内的福利被削减。数十万联 邦工作人员被迫休假，其他人则在无薪工作。 调查：美国消费者信心降至近三年半最低 编辑：熊思怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 路透社还提到，信心疲弱也反映出民众对劳动力市场的担忧。美国经济学家艾伦预测，未来一年面临失 业率上升的美国家庭比例已从10月的52%跃升至62%，为1980年以来最高。 纽约联储的一项调查也显示，受访者预计未来一年失业率将上升，并预计一旦失业将很难找到工作。 (完) 来源：中国新闻网 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government is facing an unprecedented shutdown, potentially becoming the longest in history, which began on October 1 [1] - The shutdown is expected to have significant negative impacts on the U.S. economy, particularly in sectors like aviation, food, and healthcare, raising the risk of an economic hard landing [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 1-2 percentage points in Q4, with potential losses of $7 billion to $14 billion depending on the duration of the shutdown [2] - Consumer confidence is likely to be directly impacted, with delayed payments to federal employees and contractors exacerbating the situation, especially if the shutdown extends into the holiday season [2] - The shutdown poses a threat to U.S. sovereign credit ratings, with agencies like Scope Ratings downgrading the U.S. rating from "AA" to "AA-" due to deteriorating public finances and rising debt levels [3][4] - The shutdown has created a data vacuum, complicating economic assessments and policy decisions, which could lead to increased market volatility and uncertainty regarding future interest rate paths [5][6] - The liquidity tightening caused by the shutdown has led to a significant reduction in the Federal Reserve's reserve balances, further straining financial conditions and increasing borrowing costs [7]

Group 1 - The middle class in the U.S. is experiencing a decline in economic confidence due to high inflation, tariff uncertainties, and decreasing income expectations, which is affecting consumer behavior across various industries [1][2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropped nearly 6% in August, reversing the upward trend seen in June and July [1][4] - A significant portion of consumers, over 70%, plan to reduce spending on items with high price increases in the coming year [4] Group 2 - Retail and dining sectors are particularly impacted, with Walmart noting a decrease in non-essential purchases among lower-income customers [5] - Fast-food chains like IHOP and Denny's are seeing customers opt for cheaper menu items, while McDonald's benefits from reduced spending at more expensive restaurants by the middle class [5][6] - High-income consumers continue to show strong spending behavior, purchasing luxury items and services, as evidenced by a 32% revenue growth for the Swiss sneaker brand On [6][7] Group 3 - The beauty and medical aesthetics industry is also witnessing a shift, with lower-income customers extending treatment intervals or reducing dosage, indicating economic pressure on this demographic [7]

Core Viewpoint - In July, U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month, but overall optimism remains at historically low levels, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increasing by 1.6% to 61.7, the highest since February of this year, yet down 7.1% year-over-year [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment Index - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence regarding the economy, personal financial situation, business environment, and willingness to spend, with a monthly release of preliminary and final values [3]. - The Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) rose nearly 5% to 68.0, marking the highest level since January, while the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) slightly declined to 57.7, the first drop since April [3][6]. - Historical data shows that the current index of 61.7 is significantly below the average of 84.4 since 1978, indicating a low level of consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Correlation and Trends - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has a moderate monthly fluctuation average of 3.1 points, with the current 1.0 point change being considered mild [4]. - The index is correlated with U.S. GDP, with a three-month moving average trend aligning with economic fundamentals [4]. - The survey indicates that consumer sentiment changes are more closely related to economic conditions rather than political party affiliation [6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased for the second consecutive month from 5.0% in June to 4.5%, the lowest since February, although still higher than post-election levels [8]. - Long-term inflation expectations also fell for the third month in a row from 4.0% in June to 3.4%, the lowest since January, yet still elevated compared to the end of last year [8].

Group 1 - The overall consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved in July, but confidence regarding the labor market outlook is lower than last year [1] - Approximately 57% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise, compared to 35% in the same period last year [1] - Consumers remain skeptical about whether the risks of accelerating inflation have passed [1] Group 2 - The current conditions index has risen to a six-month high of 68, while the expectations index has declined to 57.7 [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the business environment, with high concerns about unemployment [1] - Consumers believe they may be personally affected by economic risks, leading to potentially cautious financial behavior and a slowdown in spending [1]

Group 1 - The current yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has decreased by 2.19 basis points, now standing at 4.4295% [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 4.4155% prior to the release of US consumer confidence and inflation expectations data at 22:00 Beijing time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. consumer confidence in June is attributed to widespread concerns about the economy, job market, and personal financial outlook due to trade policy implications [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93 in June, lower than all economists' expectations [1] - This decline highlights ongoing worries about the potential economic impact of increased import tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Behavior - Despite moderate inflation over the past three months, some consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending [1] - Consumers' assessment of current business conditions has become more pessimistic compared to May [1] Group 3: Employment Outlook - The perception of current job opportunities has weakened for the sixth consecutive month, although it remains in positive territory, aligning with a still strong job market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The slight decline in consumer confidence in the U.S. for May is disappointing, as there were expectations for a recovery following the suspension of tariffs by Trump [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has shown a small decrease in May [1] - Analyst Adam Button from Forexlive expressed disappointment in the data, indicating that a recovery was anticipated but did not materialize [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The suspension of tariffs is expected to be a favorable factor in the coming month, despite the current lack of recovery in consumer confidence [1]

Core Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained stable around 4.4% with a daily decline exceeding 3 basis points before and after the release of U.S. consumer confidence and inflation expectations data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 1.5 basis points, nearing 3.9450%, with an overall daily decline of over 2 basis points [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread fell below +45.5 basis points, with an overall daily decline [1] - Spot gold maintained a decline of 1.76%, stabilizing around $3182 per ounce [1] - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index dropped over 0.1%, approaching 100.70 points [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index experienced a rise, reaching a daily high of 1230.42 points, maintaining a V-shaped reversal since 20:00 Beijing time [1] - The S&P 500 Index held a gain of 0.1% [1]