Group 1 - The middle class in the U.S. is experiencing a decline in economic confidence due to high inflation, tariff uncertainties, and decreasing income expectations, which is affecting consumer behavior across various industries [1][2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropped nearly 6% in August, reversing the upward trend seen in June and July [1][4] - A significant portion of consumers, over 70%, plan to reduce spending on items with high price increases in the coming year [4] Group 2 - Retail and dining sectors are particularly impacted, with Walmart noting a decrease in non-essential purchases among lower-income customers [5] - Fast-food chains like IHOP and Denny's are seeing customers opt for cheaper menu items, while McDonald's benefits from reduced spending at more expensive restaurants by the middle class [5][6] - High-income consumers continue to show strong spending behavior, purchasing luxury items and services, as evidenced by a 32% revenue growth for the Swiss sneaker brand On [6][7] Group 3 - The beauty and medical aesthetics industry is also witnessing a shift, with lower-income customers extending treatment intervals or reducing dosage, indicating economic pressure on this demographic [7]

Core Viewpoint - In July, U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month, but overall optimism remains at historically low levels, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increasing by 1.6% to 61.7, the highest since February of this year, yet down 7.1% year-over-year [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment Index - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence regarding the economy, personal financial situation, business environment, and willingness to spend, with a monthly release of preliminary and final values [3]. - The Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) rose nearly 5% to 68.0, marking the highest level since January, while the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) slightly declined to 57.7, the first drop since April [3][6]. - Historical data shows that the current index of 61.7 is significantly below the average of 84.4 since 1978, indicating a low level of consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Correlation and Trends - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has a moderate monthly fluctuation average of 3.1 points, with the current 1.0 point change being considered mild [4]. - The index is correlated with U.S. GDP, with a three-month moving average trend aligning with economic fundamentals [4]. - The survey indicates that consumer sentiment changes are more closely related to economic conditions rather than political party affiliation [6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased for the second consecutive month from 5.0% in June to 4.5%, the lowest since February, although still higher than post-election levels [8]. - Long-term inflation expectations also fell for the third month in a row from 4.0% in June to 3.4%, the lowest since January, yet still elevated compared to the end of last year [8].

Group 1 - The overall consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved in July, but confidence regarding the labor market outlook is lower than last year [1] - Approximately 57% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise, compared to 35% in the same period last year [1] - Consumers remain skeptical about whether the risks of accelerating inflation have passed [1] Group 2 - The current conditions index has risen to a six-month high of 68, while the expectations index has declined to 57.7 [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the business environment, with high concerns about unemployment [1] - Consumers believe they may be personally affected by economic risks, leading to potentially cautious financial behavior and a slowdown in spending [1]

Group 1 - The current yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has decreased by 2.19 basis points, now standing at 4.4295% [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 4.4155% prior to the release of US consumer confidence and inflation expectations data at 22:00 Beijing time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. consumer confidence in June is attributed to widespread concerns about the economy, job market, and personal financial outlook due to trade policy implications [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93 in June, lower than all economists' expectations [1] - This decline highlights ongoing worries about the potential economic impact of increased import tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Behavior - Despite moderate inflation over the past three months, some consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending [1] - Consumers' assessment of current business conditions has become more pessimistic compared to May [1] Group 3: Employment Outlook - The perception of current job opportunities has weakened for the sixth consecutive month, although it remains in positive territory, aligning with a still strong job market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The slight decline in consumer confidence in the U.S. for May is disappointing, as there were expectations for a recovery following the suspension of tariffs by Trump [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has shown a small decrease in May [1] - Analyst Adam Button from Forexlive expressed disappointment in the data, indicating that a recovery was anticipated but did not materialize [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The suspension of tariffs is expected to be a favorable factor in the coming month, despite the current lack of recovery in consumer confidence [1]

Core Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained stable around 4.4% with a daily decline exceeding 3 basis points before and after the release of U.S. consumer confidence and inflation expectations data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 1.5 basis points, nearing 3.9450%, with an overall daily decline of over 2 basis points [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread fell below +45.5 basis points, with an overall daily decline [1] - Spot gold maintained a decline of 1.76%, stabilizing around $3182 per ounce [1] - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index dropped over 0.1%, approaching 100.70 points [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index experienced a rise, reaching a daily high of 1230.42 points, maintaining a V-shaped reversal since 20:00 Beijing time [1] - The S&P 500 Index held a gain of 0.1% [1]

Core Insights - Jefferies analysts report that American consumer pessimism has eased as global tensions subside and the Trump administration softens its trade policy stance [1] - Market sentiment has improved over the past two weeks, aligning with levels seen during the "liberation day" week [1] - There has been a strong positive reversal in sentiment among older, more educated consumer demographics [1] - Overall market sentiment remains below the peak levels observed in mid-January, but analysts note that the decline has halted [1]