"泰国空运的新鲜榴莲！20元一斤咯！"在北京丰台岳各庄批发市场的一角，摊主老刘一边吆喝，一边搬 运着几筐刚到货的泰国金枕榴莲。金黄饱满的果壳裂开缝隙，乳白色的果肉溢出特有甜香，几名顾客立 刻围拢挑选。 今年夏季，进口水果价格普遍下探，榴莲、山竹、车厘子等曾经"稀罕的水果"变得更加亲民。对很多消 费者来说，进口水果正在从原先的"适当尝鲜""节日犒赏"向如今的"果盘日常"转变。 这个夏天，进口水果更亲民了 ——价格更实惠了。"我们家孩子特别爱吃榴莲，每到时令季节就天天缠着我给他买。"上海市民孙刚 说，前些年进口金枕榴莲的价格高昂，一小盒榴莲果肉动辄100多元，可谓很多人逢年过节才舍得买 的"贵族水果"。今年，金枕榴莲的价格降了不少，自家附近超市售价普遍在每斤20元左右，比原来便宜 了一半还多。"以前我们总调侃榴莲是'金子做的'，现在三天两头吃也不那么心疼了。"孙刚说。 ——购买更方便了。成都市民王宁经常光顾社区生鲜市场。她告诉笔者，过去想买进口热带水果非常不 便，自己要么得专门跑去大型超市挑选，要么网购后等上好几天，每次因为怕变质还不敢买太多。"现 在不一样了，电商小程序、社区团购、楼下生鲜店，很多渠道都有进口水 ...

韩国5月进口物价指数年率 -5%，前值由-2.30%修正为-2.6%。 ...

欧盟能源专员：在我看来，即使乌克兰实现和平，我们仍然不应重新启动俄罗斯天然气进口。 ...

2024 年植物油方面基本是美国加拿大墨西哥的本土原料为主，而动物油脂和黄油脂方面还 是有其他区域的原料。其中牛油方面其他区域原料为 68 万吨，黄油脂方面其他区域原料为 218 万吨，牛油和黄油脂合计为 286 万吨。抑制非北美的原料，由于玉米油的产量跟燃料乙 醇相关，相对偏稳定，容易增加北美本土菜籽油豆油的用量。 由于美国在 2024 年生物质柴油是净进口国家。我们粗略的将生物质柴油的量转化为原料的 量，生物柴油净进口+可再生柴油净进口的量转化为总原料，为 277 万吨。 再评估美国生物质柴油原料需求增量的问题 ———— 吴小明 投资咨询号：Z0015853 国投期货研究院 2025-06-16 在《美国生物柴油政策利多，美豆油大涨》这篇文章中，我们对非美植物油需求的粗略预估 为如下内容。 "按照 2026 年和 2027 年 56.1 和 58.6 亿加仑的生物质柴油义务量看来，比对 2024 年全年实 际生产+净进口的数据（2025 年全年数据暂时缺少，叠加 2025 年近来需求表现偏弱，先粗 略的用 2024 年的数据参考）。2024 年美国生物质柴油的产量是 48.6 亿加仑+净进口 7.5 亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent years, the demand for pure benzene has shown double - digit growth, significantly higher than other bulk chemicals. The compound annual growth rate from 2019 - 2024 was 14.6%. However, due to changes in the industrial ecosystem, the future demand growth rate of pure benzene may decline, with an estimated growth rate of 5 - 7% from 2025 - 2029 [1][86][87] - The high growth of pure benzene demand in the past five years was mainly due to import substitution, large - scale capacity expansion of direct and indirect downstream industries, and the alignment of terminal demand with the country's new productive forces and industrial transformation and upgrading [25] - In the medium - to - long term, the contribution of import substitution to demand growth will decrease, and the actual demand increment from future capacity expansion may be dominated by terminal demand. But the terminal demand for pure benzene still has certain support due to the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry [3][39][87] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent High - Growth State of Pure Benzene Demand and Its Incremental Sources - Pure benzene has many direct and secondary downstream products, with a wide range of terminal applications. From 2019 - 2024, the annual consumption of pure benzene in China nearly doubled, with an annualized compound growth rate of 14.58%. The production of its five major downstream products also showed double - digit growth [13][18][25] - The high growth of pure benzene demand in the past was mainly driven by downstream industry import substitution, large - scale capacity expansion of direct and indirect downstream industries, and the alignment of terminal demand with the country's new productive forces and industrial transformation and upgrading [25] 3.2 Remaining Potential of Downstream Industry Import Substitution - From 2019 - 2024, the import dependence of the pure benzene downstream industry decreased significantly, and the overall structure shifted from a net importer to a net exporter. The import substitution contributed an annualized compound growth rate of about 5 - 6% to pure benzene demand [27] - Currently, the remaining import volume available for substitution is less than 2 million tons (calculated by pure benzene unit consumption), and the substitution difficulty has increased. The future import substitution may contribute an annualized compound demand growth rate of about 1.2%. The focus will gradually shift to export expansion, but the incremental estimate is not overly optimistic [28][32] 3.3 Maturity of the Downstream Industrial Chain Ecosystem and Terminal - Dominated Incremental Demand - From 2019 - 2024, the capacity of the five major direct downstream and indirect downstream industries of pure benzene expanded significantly, with high compound growth rates. The integration of the downstream industrial chain deepened, providing a buffer for upstream capacity expansion [33][36] - Currently, the pure benzene downstream industry is mostly in the mature stage, with saturated competition and the disappearance of excess profits. Although there is still a lot of planned capacity expansion in the future, the actual demand increment may be dominated by terminal demand [39] 3.4 Support for Pure Benzene Terminal Demand from China's Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading - The demand for pure benzene related to the construction and real - estate sector accounts for about 10%. The demand structure of some downstream products has adjusted, reducing the proportion of real - estate demand. The terminal demand is mainly from electrical machinery and equipment, transportation equipment, and other fields [52][83] - China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading will drive the demand for pure benzene downstream derivatives. These derivatives have good comprehensive mechanical properties, which are more suitable for high - end manufacturing. Also, due to their relatively small market base, the growth potential is greater [67][69] - The demand growth rate of nylon (PA6) in the pure benzene downstream industry is higher than that of polyester. The development of outdoor activities and the outdoor economy will continue to drive the development of the pure benzene - caprolactam - PA6 industrial chain [79][80] 3.5 Summary: Future Growth Rate of Pure Benzene Demand - The future demand growth rate of pure benzene will decline compared to the past five years, but it will still be higher than most chemical products. The estimated growth rate from 2025 - 2029 is around 5 - 7% [86][87][88]

2025 年 06 月 16 日 硫酸、硫磺等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替代、纯 内需、高股息等方向 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 0.7 -0.8 9.3 沪深 300 -0.6 -3.6 9.1 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：天然气、 盐酸等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替 代、纯内需、高股息等方向》2025- 06-09 2、《基础化工行业周报：磷矿石、 草甘膦等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-06-03 3、《基础化工行业周报：丁二烯、 煤焦油等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-05-26 · 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 ▌硫酸、硫磺等涨幅居前，氯化铵、尿素等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：硫酸（CFR 西欧/北 ...

瑞士5月生产者/进口物价指数年率 -0.7%，前值-0.50%。 ...

瑞士5月生产者/进口物价指数月率 -0.5%，前值0.10%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions, favorable policies, and increased export volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 16, palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 8482.00 CNY, with a price increase of 3.76% [1]. - The market sentiment is bullish, with significant trading activity leading to a surge in palm oil prices [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Tensions in the Middle East have caused a spike in international crude oil prices, positively impacting the oilseed sector [1]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy expectations are favorable, boosting market sentiment [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 27%, contributing to a rise in domestic palm oil transaction volumes and inventory levels reaching 400,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Production and Export Data - Data from SPPOMA indicates a 17.24% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production for the period of June 1-10, 2025 [1]. - Export figures for Malaysian palm oil show increases of 26.4%, 32.69%, and 8.07% compared to the previous month, according to ITS, SGS, and AmSpec data [1]. - The strong export performance in May, particularly from India, along with reduced import tariffs, has further stimulated market optimism [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The domestic oilseed market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with recommendations for palm oil support levels around 7800 CNY [1]. - Caution is advised for positions above 8500 CNY due to potential inventory accumulation [2].