策略周报 中国资产的"黄金时代" 策略周末谈（1019） 核心结论 1、冰火转换时刻将至：中国资产重启"黄金时代" 2018 年中国进入工业化成熟期，制造业全球竞争优势积累大量国民财富，驱动 居民消费升级，宁组合/茅指数等制造/消费类资产开启"核心资产牛"。2022-2024 年美联储加息导致跨境资本和国民财富外流，梗阻"核心资产牛"。当前美联储 重启降息，跨境资本和国民财富将加速回流，中国制造/消费类资产将重启"黄 金时代"。本周 A 股风格切换，或预示着制造/消费"冰火转换"时刻将至。 2、中国资产"黄金时代"的基础：制造业出口竞争优势 过去几年制造业高度"内卷"反而能夯实其全球竞争优势，扛住 2025 年关税冲 击，继续积累国民财富。制造业对外净出口规模扩张，带来人民币汇率长期升值。 当前美联储重启降息，也将强化人民币升值趋势，驱动大量的跨境资本+国民财 富回流，中国居民的消费能力和消费意愿将会修复。在制造业强劲的出口竞争优 势"保驾护航"下，中国优质的制造/消费类资产的"冰火转换"时刻将至。 3、中国资产"黄金时代"的路径：A 股盈利和现金流修复 A 股盈利底部修复阶段往往对应着出口扩张和消费升级。（ ...

化学品及终端产品出口的以价换量 出口金额增速平稳，但实物量大幅增加：通过对出口量价进行拆分，多种细分部门的出 口存在以价换量的情况，2023-2025年，从出口价格指数的算数平均值来看，纺服/家具/文 体/电气机械/化纤/塑料橡胶制品/空调/冰箱等与化学品需求相关度比较高的行业均出现了明 显的价格指数下滑，对应每年价格2%~7%的下滑幅度。从出口数量来看，2023-2025年，塑 料/橡胶/汽车/家具出口量保持10%以上增速；化工品/纺服/机电/玩具保持5%-10%的增速。 进口替代&出口扩张 进口替代或出口虽不贡献表观需求，但对消化国内产能有重要意义，近年来国内重点石 化产品的自给率有了大幅提升，以乙烯/PX为例，自给率提升19%/18%，分别对应消化 949/855万吨产能，占其2020-2024年投放总产能的41%/41%。 出口迎来快速增长：产能扩张带来的挤出效应，同时得益于东盟，非洲等新兴市场区域 需求的崛起，欧洲、日韩石化竞争力衰退，产能不断退出，中国化学品出口或迎来趋势性拐 点；2020-2024年苯乙烯/PP/PTA/EVA/PA6/PVC出口量的CAGR均在40%以上，其余监测产品 也均在9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China is entering a concentrated production period from 2019 to 2025, with average capacity growth exceeding 10% per year, leading to increased competition and declining operating rates/profits, yet apparent consumption of key petrochemical products is expected to grow rapidly during this phase [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a significant expansion in capacity, particularly in refining, ethylene, PX, methanol, and refining by-products, driven by policy [1] - The export of chemical products is shifting towards quantity over price, with a notable decline in price indices across various sectors, while export volumes for plastics, rubber, and automotive products are expected to maintain growth rates above 10% from 2023 to 2025 [3] - Domestic self-sufficiency rates for key petrochemical products have significantly improved, with ethylene and PX self-sufficiency rates increasing by 19% and 18%, respectively, which corresponds to the absorption of 949,000 and 855,000 tons of capacity [4] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The development of new industries and emerging consumer markets in China is driving demand for chemical products, particularly in the new energy vehicle and wind power sectors, leading to increased demand for EVA, POE, epoxy resins, and PVDF [5] - The overall domestic demand remains moderate, but structural highlights are evident, with traditional plastics benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and delivery services [5] - The integration, scaling, and intensification of domestic industrial chains are establishing comparative advantages, while the economic growth in ASEAN and Africa is expected to create rapid growth opportunities for chemical demand [5] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The expansion of production capacity is leading to a significant increase in exports, particularly to emerging markets in ASEAN and Africa, as well as a decline in competitiveness from Europe and Japan, which is resulting in a trend reversal for Chinese chemical exports [4] - The CAGR for exports of styrene, PP, PTA, EVA, PA6, and PVC is projected to exceed 40% from 2020 to 2024, with other monitored products also showing growth rates between 9% and 40% [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry in China is entering a concentrated production period from 2019 to 2025, with average capacity growth for various petrochemical products exceeding 10% per year, leading to intensified competition and declining operating rates/profitability, yet major petrochemical products are still experiencing rapid apparent consumption growth during this phase [1][11][13] - The export value growth remains stable, but the physical volume has significantly increased, with various sub-sectors showing a price-volume trade-off, indicating a price decline of 2% to 7% annually from 2023 to 2025 [2][15][16] - Domestic demand is recovering moderately, with structural highlights in emerging industries and consumption markets, particularly driven by the rapid development of new energy vehicles and wind power generation, which significantly boosts the demand for various chemical new materials [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Capacity Expansion and Consumption - From 2019 to 2025E, the average capacity growth for multiple petrochemical products is projected to exceed 10% per year, with specific products like ethylene, PP, and PX seeing even higher growth rates [11][12] - Despite the rapid capacity expansion leading to increased competition and declining profitability, the apparent consumption of major petrochemical products is still growing at a high rate, with annualized growth rates for ethylene, propylene, and butadiene reaching 10.4%, 8.8%, and 7.9% respectively from 2020 to 2024 [13][19] 2. Export Dynamics - The export of chemical products is experiencing a significant expansion, with the CAGR for chemical industrial products reaching 8.9% from 2020 to 2024, and specific petrochemical products like styrene, PP, and PTA seeing export volume growth rates above 40% [22][26] - The shift in export focus towards emerging markets, with ASEAN and Africa showing notable growth in demand for chemical products, is contributing to this trend [25][26] 3. Domestic Demand and Structural Highlights - The development of new energy vehicles and renewable energy sectors is driving substantial demand for new chemical materials, while traditional plastics are also benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and delivery services [4][26] - The overall domestic consumption is recovering, and the factors driving the growth of chemical product demand and exports are expected to remain strong in the medium to long term [4][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent years, the demand for pure benzene has shown double - digit growth, significantly higher than other bulk chemicals. The compound annual growth rate from 2019 - 2024 was 14.6%. However, due to changes in the industrial ecosystem, the future demand growth rate of pure benzene may decline, with an estimated growth rate of 5 - 7% from 2025 - 2029 [1][86][87] - The high growth of pure benzene demand in the past five years was mainly due to import substitution, large - scale capacity expansion of direct and indirect downstream industries, and the alignment of terminal demand with the country's new productive forces and industrial transformation and upgrading [25] - In the medium - to - long term, the contribution of import substitution to demand growth will decrease, and the actual demand increment from future capacity expansion may be dominated by terminal demand. But the terminal demand for pure benzene still has certain support due to the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry [3][39][87] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent High - Growth State of Pure Benzene Demand and Its Incremental Sources - Pure benzene has many direct and secondary downstream products, with a wide range of terminal applications. From 2019 - 2024, the annual consumption of pure benzene in China nearly doubled, with an annualized compound growth rate of 14.58%. The production of its five major downstream products also showed double - digit growth [13][18][25] - The high growth of pure benzene demand in the past was mainly driven by downstream industry import substitution, large - scale capacity expansion of direct and indirect downstream industries, and the alignment of terminal demand with the country's new productive forces and industrial transformation and upgrading [25] 3.2 Remaining Potential of Downstream Industry Import Substitution - From 2019 - 2024, the import dependence of the pure benzene downstream industry decreased significantly, and the overall structure shifted from a net importer to a net exporter. The import substitution contributed an annualized compound growth rate of about 5 - 6% to pure benzene demand [27] - Currently, the remaining import volume available for substitution is less than 2 million tons (calculated by pure benzene unit consumption), and the substitution difficulty has increased. The future import substitution may contribute an annualized compound demand growth rate of about 1.2%. The focus will gradually shift to export expansion, but the incremental estimate is not overly optimistic [28][32] 3.3 Maturity of the Downstream Industrial Chain Ecosystem and Terminal - Dominated Incremental Demand - From 2019 - 2024, the capacity of the five major direct downstream and indirect downstream industries of pure benzene expanded significantly, with high compound growth rates. The integration of the downstream industrial chain deepened, providing a buffer for upstream capacity expansion [33][36] - Currently, the pure benzene downstream industry is mostly in the mature stage, with saturated competition and the disappearance of excess profits. Although there is still a lot of planned capacity expansion in the future, the actual demand increment may be dominated by terminal demand [39] 3.4 Support for Pure Benzene Terminal Demand from China's Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading - The demand for pure benzene related to the construction and real - estate sector accounts for about 10%. The demand structure of some downstream products has adjusted, reducing the proportion of real - estate demand. The terminal demand is mainly from electrical machinery and equipment, transportation equipment, and other fields [52][83] - China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading will drive the demand for pure benzene downstream derivatives. These derivatives have good comprehensive mechanical properties, which are more suitable for high - end manufacturing. Also, due to their relatively small market base, the growth potential is greater [67][69] - The demand growth rate of nylon (PA6) in the pure benzene downstream industry is higher than that of polyester. The development of outdoor activities and the outdoor economy will continue to drive the development of the pure benzene - caprolactam - PA6 industrial chain [79][80] 3.5 Summary: Future Growth Rate of Pure Benzene Demand - The future demand growth rate of pure benzene will decline compared to the past five years, but it will still be higher than most chemical products. The estimated growth rate from 2025 - 2029 is around 5 - 7% [86][87][88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 503.25, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current closing price of HKD 403.40 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance meets expectations, driven by export expansion and advancements in intelligent driving technology. The report emphasizes the dual engines of growth: increased exports and the democratization of intelligent driving features [2][7]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 777.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 29%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 40.254 billion, a 34% increase compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The report highlights that BYD's sales volume is anticipated to reach 4.27 million vehicles in 2024, a 41.2% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 33.2% in the new energy vehicle sector [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to grow from 602,315 in 2023 to 977,249 in 2025E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25.8% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 30,041 million RMB in 2023 to 52,460 million RMB in 2025E, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 30.3% in 2025 [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 13.33 in 2023 to RMB 23.28 in 2025E, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][12]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD is positioned as a robust and reliable player in the automotive sector, with a focus on expanding its export markets, particularly in Brazil and Southeast Asia, and enhancing its intelligent driving capabilities [7][8]. - The report notes that the average selling price of vehicles is expected to increase, driven by a higher proportion of premium models and stable pricing in the market [7][8]. - The company is also investing in technology and innovation, with significant increases in research and development expenses, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a competitive edge in the industry [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 503.25, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current closing price of HKD 403.40 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, driven by export expansion and advancements in intelligent driving technology. The report emphasizes the dual engines of growth: increased exports and the democratization of intelligent driving features [2][7]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at RMB 777.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29%, with net profit expected to reach RMB 40.254 billion, a 34% increase [7][8]. - The report highlights that BYD's sales volume for 2024 is projected to be 4.27 million vehicles, representing a 41.2% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 33.2% in the new energy vehicle sector [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 602,315 in 2023 to 977,249 in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 30,041 million RMB in 2023 to 52,460 million RMB in 2025E, reflecting a CAGR of 30.3% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 13.33 in 2023 to RMB 23.28 in 2025E, indicating strong profitability growth [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.2 in 2023 to 16.2 in 2025E, suggesting improved valuation attractiveness [3]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD is expected to leverage its self-built roll-on/roll-off fleet and expanding overseas factories in Thailand, Brazil, and Hungary to boost export volumes significantly [7]. - The introduction of the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" intelligent driving system aims to make high-level autonomous driving features accessible in lower-priced models, enhancing market penetration [7]. - The report anticipates that sales will reach 5.23 million vehicles in 2025, a 23% increase year-on-year, supported by the growth in exports and intelligent driving technology [7].