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(第八届进博会)全球化智库副主任高志凯:建议在进博会框架下推动人民币跨境结算
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-11-07 13:40
Core Viewpoint - The suggestion to promote cross-border settlement in Renminbi (RMB) within the framework of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) aims to enhance the use of RMB in international trade, which currently stands at only about 3% [1][2]. Group 1: Current Situation - The proportion of RMB in international settlements is approximately 3%, which is inconsistent with China's status as a major global trading nation [1]. - China's manufacturing sector accounts for about one-third of global production, yet the low percentage of RMB in international settlements highlights a significant mismatch [1]. Group 2: Recommendations - It is proposed to develop a roadmap to encourage the use of RMB for settlements at the CIIE, with a target to increase the RMB settlement ratio to 25% to 30% in a relatively short time [1]. - The CIIE could focus on key commodity sectors, such as allowing transactions for Norwegian salmon to be settled in RMB [1]. Group 3: Integration with Digital Currency - The integration of RMB internationalization with the development of digital RMB is suggested, emphasizing the need to combine efforts for both import and export payments using RMB [1]. - The gradual exploration of these initiatives is expected to enhance trade facilitation and help RMB evolve into an international transaction, payment, and reserve currency [2].
外储连续三月站稳3.3万亿美元,未来增持黄金仍是大方向
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 13:09
Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves continue to increase, reaching $33,433 billion by the end of October 2025, marking a rise of $47 billion from September, and a significant increase of $1,409.9 billion from the end of the previous year [1] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves have risen for three consecutive months, remaining above $3.3 trillion [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the impact of asset price changes and exchange rate fluctuations, with a month-on-month rise of $47 billion [1] - The dollar index rose by 2.1% to 99.8 in October, influenced by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth and a decline in non-dollar currencies [2] Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) to 7,409 million ounces by the end of October, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [5] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategy to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves and mitigate risks associated with a high proportion of dollar assets [5][8] - Global demand for gold from central banks remains high, with gold surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset [6] Economic Analysis - The current level of foreign exchange reserves is considered moderately sufficient, providing support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium [3] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns enhance the investment demand for gold, which is viewed as a hedge against such uncertainties [5][8] - The Chinese economy's stability and potential are fundamental supports for maintaining the foreign exchange reserve scale [8]
外储连续三月超3.3万亿美元 央行购金节奏放缓
21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 全球资产价格上涨支撑外储 11月7日,国家外汇管理局统计数据显示,截至2025年10月末,我国外汇储备规模为33433亿美元,较9月末上升47亿美元,升幅 为0.14%。这是我国外汇储备连续三月站上3.3万亿美元大关,创2015年12月以来最高。黄金储备方面,央行连续第12个月增持 黄金。同日,央行公布数据显示,10月末黄金储备报7409万盎司(约2304.457吨),环比增加3万盎司(约0.93吨)。 国家外汇局表示,2025年10月,受主要经济体货币政策及预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响,美元指数上涨,全球金融资产价格 总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用,当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大, 长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变,有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉记者,汇率和资产价格变化带来的估值效应形成对冲,是10月外汇储备小幅回升的主因。一 方面,10月美元指数上涨1.9%。这会导致我国外汇储备中非美元资产贬值,导致外汇储备规模下降。另一方面,10月以日经225 指数为代表的全球主要股指普遍出现较大幅度上涨,其中 ...
外储连续三月超3.3万亿美元,央行购金节奏放缓
东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉记者,汇率和资产价格变化带来的估值效应形成对冲,是10月外汇储备小幅回升的主因。一 方面,10月美元指数上涨1.9%。这会导致我国外汇储备中非美元资产贬值,导致外汇储备规模下降。另一方面,10月以日经225 指数为代表的全球主要股指普遍出现较大幅度上涨,其中日经225指数大幅上涨16.6%,美债收益率走低,美债价格上扬,共同 带动我国外储投资的金融资产估值增加。 全球资产价格上涨支撑外储 综合受访人士观点来看,汇率折算和资产价格变化是10月外汇储备继续回升的原因,且资产价格变化的影响更为显著。一般而 言,只要当月美元指数出现明显上升,多个国家的外汇储备通常都会因非美资产折算成美元后的金额减少,出现环比下降的状 况,但今年10月却打破了这一传统规律,原因是资产价格变化形成了对冲。 "在资产价格方面,全球股债双强对外储形成了强劲支撑。"温彬表示,10月份,美联储降息推动以美元标价的已对冲全球债券 指数上涨0.8%,美国标普500指数上涨2.3%。日本财政政策蓄势待发,刺激日经指数上涨16.6%,创历史新高。欧元区经济缓慢 修复,欧洲斯托克指数上涨2.6%。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管 ...
友国战略抉择,数十吨黄金运往深圳!更多国家排队,形势悄然大变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 12:14
而且,柬埔寨只是个开头。东南亚、非洲、中东的几个国家,早就在观望。有的央行已经派人研究中国的黄金储存制度,有的还在计算搬迁成本。可以预 见,未来会有更多国家选择把黄金、外汇、债券部分放在中国,这股"去美元"的暗潮,已经起势。 为什么大家开始这么干?很现实。黄金是硬通货,可黄金放哪儿,也决定了风险在哪儿。如果全都放在西方,那就是把命门交出去。现在西方动不动就制 裁、查封、冻结资产,谁还敢放心?与其坐着挨刀,不如提前换个地方。 在全球金融的棋盘上,有时一个小国的一步棋,能引起全场震动。最近,柬埔寨悄悄做了件大事:他们决定把国家黄金储备的一部分,存在中国深圳。这件 事看似低调,其实分量极重。西方金融圈的心,这下该凉了半截。 柬埔寨央行这次要存在中国的黄金,是他们新买的储备,不动原有的老库存。这步棋下得极稳。意思很简单——既不和西方撕破脸,又能顺势靠近中国的金 融体系。既保住面子,又赢得利益。 目前柬埔寨政府手里有56吨黄金,占外汇储备的四分之一,那可是国家命脉的一部分,动哪一点都得掂量三遍。选择中国,首先是对中国金融安全的信任。 要知道,中国的黄金市场如今规模全球领先,深圳、上海的黄金交易量早就跻身世界前列。金库安 ...
LME:11月1日起 提高离岸人民币作为抵押品的利率
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 12:10
Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is increasing the interest rate for offshore Renminbi (CNH) used as collateral starting November 1, 2025, to encourage more market participants to utilize CNH as cash collateral [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - LME Clear will raise the interest rate for CNH as collateral from CDIR-30 bps (T) to CDIR-0 bps (T-1) [1] - This change aims to enhance the attractiveness of using CNH in the collateral framework [1] Group 2: Importance of Renminbi - The Renminbi is recognized as one of the major world currencies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is the first emerging market currency included in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket [1] - The significance of the Renminbi in international markets is increasing, particularly with the growing number of Chinese enterprises trading on the LME [1] Group 3: Historical Context and Liquidity Management - Since July 2015, LME Clear members have been able to use CNH as qualified cash collateral to meet margin requirements [1] - In March 2017, LME Clear reduced the notice period for members to deposit or withdraw Renminbi to two working days, enhancing liquidity management efficiency [1] Group 4: Collaboration and Opportunities - LME Clear will continue to collaborate with its members to seize opportunities arising from the internationalization of the Renminbi and to promote interaction between Chinese market participants and those from other regions [2]
外汇储备创2015年11月以来最高!人民银行连续第12个月增持黄金
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-11-07 11:21
北京商报讯(记者刘四红)最新一期外储数据公布。11月7日,据人民银行官网公布的官方储备资产,截至2025年10月末,我国外汇储备规模为 33433亿美元,较9月末上升47亿美元,升幅为0.14%。另外,10月末黄金储备报7409万盎司(约2304.457吨),环比增加3万盎司(约0.93吨),为连续 第12个月增持黄金。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青同样称,10月末外储规模变化不大,主要是当月美元指数上行与全球金融资产价格上涨形成对冲效应,带动外储规 模微幅上升。10月末我国外储规模已连续三个月升至3.3万亿美元之上,创2015年11月以来最高,较上年末也大幅增加1409.9亿美元。背后主要是 受年初以来美元大幅贬值、美债收益率显著下行,以及全球主要股指上涨带动。 "考虑到当前外储规模已处于3.3万亿美元以上的偏高水平,且当月人民银行增持黄金规模有限,不排除10月人民银行实施一定规模的外汇净卖出 的可能,这能够将外储规模控制在适度水平区间。"王青说道。按不同标准测算,当前我国略高于3万亿美元的外储规模都处于适度充裕状态。综 合考虑各方面因素,未来外储规模有望保持基本稳定。在外部环境波动加大的背景下,适度充裕的外 ...
中国需持续增持黄金储备 适度减持美债
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-11-07 11:00
Core Viewpoint - The strategic function of China's foreign exchange reserves is shifting from traditional liquidity support to asset structure optimization and currency credit support in the context of a changing global economic landscape and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433 billion, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months, marking the highest level since November 2015 [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves to 7.409 million ounces, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation since November 2024 [1][3]. - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to a slight rise in the dollar index and a corresponding increase in global financial asset prices, which offset potential declines in reserves due to non-dollar asset depreciation [2]. Group 2: Gold Reserves and Strategy - China's gold reserves account for only 8.0% of its official international reserves, significantly lower than the global average of 15%, prompting a strategy of increasing gold reserves while reducing U.S. Treasury holdings [2][3]. - The PBOC's recent gold purchases, amounting to 3,000 ounces (approximately 1 ton), reflect a cautious approach due to high gold prices, contrasting with previous months' larger purchases [1][3]. - The ongoing global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves, with a net purchase of 1,089 tons in 2024, indicates a reevaluation of the traditional dollar-dominated reserve system [4]. Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, and the frequent political interference in monetary policy is diminishing the "risk-free" status of dollar assets, necessitating a shift in reserve asset allocation [3][4]. - The strategic increase in gold reserves is seen as essential for enhancing national financial security and supporting the internationalization of the renminbi [3][5]. - The future strategy will likely involve a gradual increase in gold holdings while reducing the concentration of U.S. Treasury securities, ensuring liquidity and yield without significantly raising costs [4][5].
不只是涨价!黄金税改的逻辑,国家在为你规划一条安全的投资赛道
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 10:59
Core Viewpoint - The recent tax policy changes regarding gold are part of a broader strategy by the Chinese government to enhance its global financial influence and establish a more regulated gold market [3][24]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy separates the "investment" and "consumption" attributes of gold, applying different VAT rules to each [3][10]. - Only standard gold transactions through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will enjoy VAT exemptions, encouraging institutional and bulk traders to engage in compliant trading [5][6]. - Consumption gold, such as jewelry and industrial gold, will incur VAT during transactions, while businesses can deduct input tax when processing and selling these gold products [9][10]. Group 2: Market Implications - The policy aims to increase the liquidity and scale of on-exchange trading, thereby establishing the authority of "Shanghai Gold" [7][12]. - The shift towards compliant trading channels indicates a future where non-compliant trading options will diminish, leading to a more regulated gold market [12][26]. - The tax reform is closely linked to China's goal of becoming a financial powerhouse as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [12][24]. Group 3: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The changes are a significant step in the strategy to internationalize the Renminbi, as China seeks to establish its own gold pricing mechanism rather than relying on Western markets [14][18]. - The recognition of "Shanghai Gold" in global markets will enhance the credibility and attractiveness of the Renminbi, reducing dependence on the US dollar [18][20]. - This process is gradual but essential for China's long-term financial strategy, aiming to challenge the existing global monetary system [20][24]. Group 4: Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to utilize compliant channels such as bank paper gold, products from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and compliant gold ETFs, avoiding non-regulated options that carry higher risks [22][24]. - Understanding the different value logic between investment gold and consumption gold is crucial for investors to avoid losses [22][24]. - The new tax policy represents a significant transformation from broad regulation to precise governance, reflecting the ambition to secure global gold pricing authority and strengthen the foundation for Renminbi internationalization [24][27].
10月外汇储备继续环比上升,央行连续12个月增持黄金
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-07 10:59
Core Insights - As of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,433 billion, marking an increase of $47 billion from September, the highest level since December 2015 [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the rise in the US dollar index and overall global financial asset prices [1][5] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with the latest figure at 7,409 million ounces, reflecting a modest increase of 3,000 ounces [1][9] Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months [1] - The dollar index rose by approximately 1.95% in the past month, while major currencies like the euro, yen, and pound depreciated against the dollar [5] - The strengthening of the dollar is influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and geopolitical uncertainties [5][6] Asset Prices and Market Conditions - Global stock and bond markets showed strength in October, supporting the increase in China's foreign exchange reserves [6] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by about 5 basis points due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, leading to increased liquidity in the market [6] - Major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nikkei, experienced gains during this period [6] Gold Reserves - The increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China is seen as a strategy to optimize international reserves amid fluctuating gold prices [9][10] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have seen them rise above $4,000 per ounce before retreating below $3,900 [10] - Analysts suggest that the central bank's gold purchases may slow down due to various market factors, but the long-term demand for gold remains strong [10]