（原标题：刘英：引领中国开放范式升级，海南自贸港深挖中国—东盟合作潜力） 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭、实习生陈颖 北京报道 12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关运作。分析认为，海南自由贸易港的封关运作不仅标志着 中国最高水平开放形态的实践迈入新阶段，也将成为推动区域合作的关键平台。? "当前中国—东盟自贸区已升级至3.0版，RCEP（区域全面经济伙伴关系协定）也已落地生效多年，海 南可依托自由贸易示范区的战略定位，以制度创新降低区域合作的制度性成本，为中国东盟共同体建设 及区域合作深化提供可复制的中国方案。"12月23日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受 21世纪经济报道记者专访时说道。 针对海南自贸港的战略意义、独特优势、封关后的新发展特征及区域合作路径等问题，刘英在采访中一 一做出回应。她强调，明年在深圳举办的APEC峰会也将为海南自贸港在规则对接、区域合作等领域拓 展实践空间提供重要契机，有望释放更大合作潜力。 刘英指出，海南自贸港全岛封关运作不仅是我国推动规则、规制、管理、标准高水平对外开放的关键举 措，更凸显了制度型开放的战略价值。面对外部环境的不确定性，高标准建设海南自贸 ...

那么，面对黄金如潮的涨势，投资者又是否值得去参与？笔者认为，这个问题要分两个方面来看。 如果是短线投资者，不妨先耐心观察，原因是最近金价过于迅猛，存在获利了结心态驱使下的回调需 求，目前价位如果过于激进追涨，则有可能在金价的高位震荡中被套。因此短线炒家有必要等待金价平 稳后再寻找相对低价入手的机会。如果是长线投资者，考虑到美元一旦进入弱周期，经验显示这一阶段 将持续较长时间，国际局势较难彻底缓和，因此可以考虑在金价小幅调整时出手，并长线持有黄金。 有必要多说一句的是，由此及彼，在贵金属价格持续看涨的背景下，投资者可以对资源类股票多加关 注，特别是有色金属类。原因在于，黄金事实上仅拥有金融属性，而铜、锌、钨、镍、钛等更因在现代 工业体系中具有重要作用，而凸显出应有的价值。 笔者认为，首先要明确的是，黄金今年以来的强势上涨并非无厘头式的炒作，而是基于其作为天下第 一"避险品种"的金融属性。那么今年世界是怎样的局势？俄乌战争硝烟未熄，加沙冲突烽火又起，时近 年底泰柬边境又起争端，在这样的背景下，黄金自然不会被视安全为第一要务的国际玩家忽视。与此同 时，白银也涨势不断，使得整个贵金属板块的上涨行情由点到面展开。 不过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is strengthening its guidance on deposit and loan interest rates to prevent excessive competition among market institutions, which could further lower effective market rates and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy [1][41]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Consumer loan products with interest rates below 3% are nearly extinct, and 5-year large-denomination certificates of deposit with rates above 1.55% are also disappearing [1][41]. - The lower limit for corporate loan rates is approximately 2.1%-2.2%, aligning closely with the after-tax adjusted yield of government bonds of the same maturity, while the lower limit for retail loan rates, including mortgages, is around 3% [3][53]. - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans and personal housing loans is around 3.1%, which is historically low [48][55]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - The central bank emphasizes maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship, considering it one of the five key interest rate relationships that require attention [4][44]. - The overall interest rate level in China is at a historical low, with the central bank's policy rate at 1.4% and the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5%, respectively [9][48]. - The central economic work conference indicates that the monetary policy will continue to implement a moderately loose stance, with potential for slight rate cuts in the first half of 2026 [10][49]. Group 3: Banking Sector Dynamics - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, declining from over 2% to around 1.42% as of the third quarter of 2025, which is a historical low [18][56]. - Banks are facing challenges in maintaining a sustainable net interest margin due to intense competition and the phenomenon of "involution" in the lending market [20][22]. - Recent reports indicate that banks are stabilizing their loan rates, with some banks encouraging slight increases in loan rates as part of their key performance indicators [55][56]. Group 4: Regulatory Actions and Market Reactions - The central bank has taken measures to prevent irrational downward pressure on loan rates, including discouraging banks from issuing loans at rates below the yield of government bonds [16][54]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) initiative aims to address the rapid decline in loan rates while ensuring that deposit rates do not fall excessively [3][15]. - The market is observing a shift in the pricing strategies of banks, with a focus on improving market pricing capabilities and stabilizing asset yields [24][56].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting organized by the China Securities Association on December 19 focused on the analysis and outlook for the macro economy and capital markets in 2026, emphasizing the importance of chief economists in providing insights for economic and market reforms [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Chief economists discussed the macroeconomic and capital market trends for 2026, providing analyses and forecasts [1] - Topics included "internationalization of the Renminbi," "gaining dividends from reforms," and "how to enhance household consumption rates" [1] Group 2: Strategic Planning - Industry experts offered suggestions for the development of the capital market and the securities industry's 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for chief economists to leverage their analytical expertise to address significant macroeconomic and capital market issues [1]

近日，海南证监局发布了《海南自由贸易港跨境资产管理试点业务试点机构备案公告（截至2025年12月17 日）》。有7家机构已完成从事海南自贸港跨境资产管理试点业务备案。 其中，券商有2家，分别是金元证券、万和证券。基金有2家，分别是汇百川基金管理有限公司、鹏安基金管理 有限公司。这4家机构备案类型为产品的发行机构。还有3家银行备案为产品销售机构，分别是兴业银行股份有 限公司海口分行、上海浦东发展银行股份有限公司海口分行、招商银行股份有限公司海口分行。 据悉，该试点业务不仅创新拓展了跨境金融产品供给，为境外投资者投资境内市场开辟新渠道，而且也将吸引 境内外资产管理机构到海南展业，助力海南自贸港建设。 相关资管产品被认购 初步额度100亿元 2025年7月，中国人民银行海南省分行、国家金融监督管理总局海南监管局、中国证券监督管理委员会海南监 管局、国家外汇管理局海南省分局联合印发《海南自由贸易港跨境资产管理试点业务实施细则》（下称《实施 细则》），明确2025年8月21日起海南自贸港正式实施跨境资管试点。 根据《实施细则》，试点业务支持境外投资者投资海南自贸港内金融机构发行的理财产品、证券基金期货经营 机构私募资产 ...

海南封关的消息，还在持续发酵。 本周，很直接的影响到资本市场。 大A上关于海南的板块，都有一波拉升的行情。 这里面有短期情绪的影响，但海南封关这件事，更多是长线的影响。 首先，封关肯定不是小事，这是影响我们改G开放格局的大事。 我们要连续10年，砸下1.8万亿，699个重大项目，这背后，是我们更长线的布局。 过去我们的出口靠的是什么？ 做世界的廉价工厂，卖衣服、卖螺丝钉，做组装，靠中低端的产业出口，我们赚的都是辛苦钱。 但现在我们一方面不想做这种"血汗工厂"，我们的老百姓要赚更多的收入。 我们就不能只靠中低端的制造业出口。 而海南，就是我们升级产业出口的一个窗口。 以后，特斯拉电池在这组装，成本降了30%， 辉瑞新药在这生产，价格砍一半。 核心就12个字，一线开放，二线管住、岛内自由 本质是把海南打造成：境内关外的超级特区。 什么是一线开放？ 是指海南跟境外的边界彻底放开。 过去外国商品进中国，像挤独木桥一样，不仅窄还要交高额的税。 现在不一样了。 砸钱建的物流枢纽，全球99%的商品，可以零关税进来。 3点5万平方公里的海南，直接成了超级中转站。 未来，芯片封装，生物医药等高端制造，在海南生产，包装，出口，亚 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Association held a meeting for the new Chief Economist (Development Strategy) Professional Committee, focusing on macroeconomic analysis and the preparation of the "15th Five-Year" plan for the capital market and securities industry [1][2] - The meeting included participation from over 50 representatives from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and relevant government departments, highlighting the collaborative effort in discussing the future of the industry [1] - Key economists presented their forecasts and analyses for the macroeconomy and capital markets, addressing topics such as "RMB internationalization" and strategies to enhance consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The new Chief Economist Professional Committee members were appointed, with a focus on leveraging their expertise to address significant macroeconomic and capital market issues [2] - The China Securities Association emphasized the importance of adhering to the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference in guiding the industry's future [2] - The association aims to promote high-quality development in the securities industry and capital markets through strategic planning and collective industry insights [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities Association held a meeting for the new Chief Economist (Development Strategy) Professional Committee, focusing on macroeconomic and capital market issues to contribute expert insights for reform and stability [1] - The meeting included discussions on the 2026 macroeconomic outlook and the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market and securities industry [1] - Over 50 participants from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and relevant government departments attended the meeting, highlighting the collaborative effort in the industry [1] Group 2 - The meeting featured a presentation by the Chief Economist of Everbright Pramerica Fund, who released the results of a survey predicting the first quarter of 2026 [2] - Various chief economists from different firms provided analyses on topics such as "RMB internationalization," "gaining dividends from reform," and "how to enhance consumer spending" [2] - The China Securities Association announced the appointment of new members to the Chief Economist (Development Strategy) Professional Committee and emphasized the importance of aligning with the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [2]

12月23日，离岸人民币对美元率先升破7.02关口，为2024年10月以来首次，距离7整数关口仅"一步之 遥"，与此同时，在岸人民币对美元升破7.03关口，日内上涨近百点。 据媒体报道，美元走弱与年末季节性因素成为本轮人民币升值的重要助推力。12月以来，随着美联储降 息落地，美元指数再度走弱，一度失守97。"市场预期伴随着美联储继续开展降息，将进一步压制美元 长期走势，为人民币提供长期的外部升值空间。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟对记者表 示。 年末"结汇潮"也是人民币走势的关键支撑。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记者表示，临近年底，企业 结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强。在人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求有可能加速释放。 从各类影响因素上看，预计短期内人民币还会处在偏强运行状态。 历史数据显示，春节前银行代客结售汇顺差规模往往是全年的最高水平，国内外汇市场供需关系对人民 币升值的支持力度即将达到全年最高水平。 据总台环球资讯，报道还称，今年7月，中国央行宣布三项新的对外开放优化措施，包括完善债券通"南 向通"运行机制，支持更多境内投资者"走出去"，拓展离岸债券市场投资渠道等。这些是中国推动人民 ...

2025年，全球金融市场经历了货币政策转向与经济格局重构的变革，美联储开启降息周期、中国经济韧性凸显、全球贸易格局深度调整等多重因素交织，推 动人民币汇率呈现 "先弱后强、波动收窄" 的运行特征。 12月22日，人民币对美元收报1美元兑换7.0382元人民币，较上年末上涨2606个基点，升值幅度约3.7%。 智通财经记者 | 张一诺 2026年，人民币升值的趋势有望得到延续。智通财经综合9家机构的预测显示，新的一年人民币对美元汇率将呈现 "温和升值为主基调、双向波动常态化、 先升后稳显韧性" 的核心特征，汇率中枢有望突破 7.0 整数关口，全年运行区间预计在6.7-7.2之间，年底有望收于6.7-7.0区间。 以下是智通财经采访的9家机构关于2026年人民币走势的观点（排名不分先后）： | 机构 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 财通证券 | 人民币对美元上半年闽值"7"，下半 | | 德意志银行 | 人民币对美元或升向6.7-6.8 | | 东吴证券 | 2026年底人民币对美元或升向6.7-6.8 | | 华泰证券 | 2026年底美元对人民币汇率或在6.82 | | 瑞银 | 2026年6月 ...