中国央行同日发布的数据显示，2025年12月末，黄金储备报7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第 14个月增持黄金。 未来央行增持黄金仍是大方向。 我国外储规模已连续5个月处于3.3万亿美元之上，截至2025年12月末，外储规模较上年末大幅增长超 1555亿美元。 1月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元，较11 月末上升115亿美元，升幅为0.34%。 外汇局表示，2025年12月，受主要经济体货币政策、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金 融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国不断巩 固拓展经济稳中向好势头，经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，有利于外汇储备规模保持基 本稳定。 货物贸易顺差首次突破万亿美元大关，也为外储规模稳定增长提供了坚实基本面的支撑。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，外贸领域，我国出口量质齐升，出口产品结构升级，出口市场多点开 花，对国际收支的基础支撑作用更为凸显。投资领域，2025年，我国资本市场表现优于全球整体，国际 机构对我国经济前景和人民币资产的信心进一步增强 ...

小李注意到，这并非短期操作，中国美债持仓从2013年1.32万亿美元的峰值近乎腰斩，减持趋势已持续 多年。 重磅数据出炉！美国财政部最新披露，中国10月减持118亿美元美债，持仓跌至6887亿美元，创下2008 年11月以来的17年新低。 早在2013年，中国持有美债的规模达到1.32万亿美元的历史峰值，之后就进入了波动下行的通道。 | 图家/地区 | 2026年10月 | 2026年9月 | 2026年8月 | 2026年7月 | 025年0月 | 2026年9月 | 025年4月 | 2026年3月 | 2026年2月 | 2025年1月 | 2024年12月 | 2024年11月 | 2024年10月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本 | 12000 | 11883 | 11804 | 11518 | 11480 | 11350 | 14345 | 11308 | 11289 | 10793 | 10615 | 1087 | 11012 | | 原 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous increase in China's gold reserves reflects the central bank's long-term preference for gold as a stable reserve asset amid global economic uncertainties, with a notable increase in foreign exchange reserves reaching $33,464 billion, the highest since December 2015 [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank's Gold Accumulation - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, with a total of 7,412 million ounces as of November, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on a single currency [1][5]. - The recent increase in gold reserves is part of a broader trend among central banks globally to enhance financial stability and currency credibility, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and the depreciation of the US dollar [5][6]. Group 2: Market Implications - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to a short-term rise in gold prices, supported by a weaker dollar and favorable market conditions, although gold prices have not yet surpassed the highs of October [4]. - The central bank's steady accumulation of gold is expected to provide a solid foundation for long-term price increases, reinforcing gold's status as a core asset in foreign exchange reserves [4][6]. Group 3: Macro Financial Strategy - The continuous increase in gold reserves serves not only as a reserve management strategy but also as a macro-financial layout to mitigate risks associated with the depreciation of the US dollar and rising geopolitical risks [8]. - The trend of increasing gold reserves is likely to continue, particularly in an environment of uncertain interest rates and geopolitical volatility, highlighting gold's growing importance as a core asset in foreign exchange reserves [6][8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the gradual improvement of China-US relations, highlighted by three significant events [1] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 74.09 million ounces, which is still below the global average of 15% [3][27] - The increase in gold reserves aims to optimize foreign exchange reserves and reduce risks associated with excessive dollar assets, acting as a "safety cushion" for the economy [5] Group 2 - China has resumed large-scale purchases of US soybeans, with 3 million tons valued at approximately $1.5 billion, marking a significant trade development since May [10][12] - This soybean purchase is strategically timed ahead of the US midterm elections, benefiting agricultural states that are crucial for the Republican Party [12][14] - The US is considering the export of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China, which could significantly impact the AI chip market and reflects ongoing negotiations between the two countries [15][19] Group 3 - The article suggests that these developments indicate a pragmatic approach to trade, with both countries seeking mutual benefits, contrasting with the tensions seen during the 2018 trade war [24][26] - Despite the positive signals, underlying differences remain, particularly regarding chip exports, which are still under intense debate in the US [26] - The overall economic interdependence of China and the US, accounting for over 40% of global GDP, emphasizes the need for cooperation rather than confrontation [29]

Core Insights - The strategic function of China's foreign exchange reserves is shifting from traditional liquidity support to asset structure optimization and currency credit support amid global economic adjustments and geopolitical risks [2][5][8] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433 billion, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months, marking the highest level since November 2015 [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves to 7.409 million ounces, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation since November 2024 [2][4] Gold Reserves - The recent increase in gold reserves was approximately 3,000 ounces (about 1 ton), which is significantly lower than previous monthly purchases of 10 tons or more, attributed to high gold prices [3][4] - Currently, gold reserves account for only 8.0% of China's official international reserves, which is below the global average of 15% [4] U.S. Treasury Bonds - The PBOC is adopting a strategy of "continuously increasing gold reserves while moderately reducing U.S. Treasury holdings" to optimize reserve structure and enhance the credit foundation of the Renminbi [4][5] - The recent stability in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to a rise in the U.S. dollar index and a significant increase in global financial asset prices, which offset potential declines in reserves [4][7] Global Trends - Since 2022, global central bank gold purchases have surged, with net purchases reaching 1,089 tons in 2024, the highest on record, indicating a reassessment of the traditional dollar-dominated reserve system [6][8] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the trend of financial sanctions have led to a systemic risk in over-concentration on a single sovereign bond, prompting a shift towards increasing gold allocations [5][6] Future Outlook - The PBOC's strategy of gradually increasing gold reserves while managing U.S. Treasury holdings is seen as a long-term approach to enhance financial security and support the internationalization of the Renminbi [7][8] - The expansion of the Renminbi's cross-border usage and the improvement of domestic currency settlement mechanisms will necessitate a more urgent and practical optimization of foreign reserve structures [8]

Core Viewpoint - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, reaching 74.09 million ounces (approximately 2,304.457 tons) by the end of October, marking the twelfth consecutive month of accumulation, although the increase has been at a low level for the past eight months [1][2] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.343 trillion, slightly up from $3.339 trillion at the end of September [1] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves and reduce the risk associated with a high proportion of dollar assets [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - Global demand for gold among central banks is rising, with gold surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally [2] - The geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures are driving significant investment demand for gold, suggesting potential for appreciation [2] Group 3: Price Forecasts - After reaching a high of $4,300 per ounce, international gold prices have retreated to around $4,000 per ounce, with potential support levels identified between $3,945 and $4,060 [3] - Future price targets for gold are set at $4,300 per ounce in the next three months and $4,500 per ounce over the next twelve months, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over U.S. fiscal policy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic function of China's foreign exchange reserves is shifting from traditional liquidity support to asset structure optimization and currency credit support in the context of a changing global economic landscape and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433 billion, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months, marking the highest level since November 2015 [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves to 7.409 million ounces, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation since November 2024 [1][3]. - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to a slight rise in the dollar index and a corresponding increase in global financial asset prices, which offset potential declines in reserves due to non-dollar asset depreciation [2]. Group 2: Gold Reserves and Strategy - China's gold reserves account for only 8.0% of its official international reserves, significantly lower than the global average of 15%, prompting a strategy of increasing gold reserves while reducing U.S. Treasury holdings [2][3]. - The PBOC's recent gold purchases, amounting to 3,000 ounces (approximately 1 ton), reflect a cautious approach due to high gold prices, contrasting with previous months' larger purchases [1][3]. - The ongoing global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves, with a net purchase of 1,089 tons in 2024, indicates a reevaluation of the traditional dollar-dominated reserve system [4]. Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, and the frequent political interference in monetary policy is diminishing the "risk-free" status of dollar assets, necessitating a shift in reserve asset allocation [3][4]. - The strategic increase in gold reserves is seen as essential for enhancing national financial security and supporting the internationalization of the renminbi [3][5]. - The future strategy will likely involve a gradual increase in gold holdings while reducing the concentration of U.S. Treasury securities, ensuring liquidity and yield without significantly raising costs [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - China continues to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the latest data showing a decrease of $11.3 billion in June, bringing the total to $835.4 billion, the lowest level in nearly 14 years [1][12]. Group 1: Reasons for Reducing U.S. Treasury Holdings - The primary concern driving China's reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds is the fear of default risk associated with U.S. debt, which has reached $32.659 trillion, exceeding the U.S. GDP of $25.45 trillion in 2022 [5][12]. - The reduction is also aimed at optimizing China's foreign exchange reserves, which have historically been heavily weighted towards U.S. dollar assets, constituting about 70% of reserves [8][12]. - By selling off U.S. Treasuries and increasing holdings in gold and other currencies, China seeks to diversify its risk and mitigate potential losses from a significant depreciation of the dollar [8][12]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Countries - In contrast to China, Japan's approach to U.S. Treasury holdings has been inconsistent, with fluctuations in buying and selling influenced by political considerations and currency stabilization efforts [9]. - Japan's recent actions include increasing holdings by $39.3 billion in April, reducing by $30.4 billion in May, and then increasing again by $8.8 billion in June, reflecting a more reactive strategy compared to China's systematic reduction [9]. Group 3: Implications of Collective Selling - The likelihood of a "blow-up" in the U.S. Treasury market due to collective selling by countries like China is considered low in the short term, as the total U.S. debt is significantly larger than China's holdings [11][12]. - Even if China were to sell all its U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions would likely absorb the impact, preventing systemic risk [11]. - The U.S. economy, with a GDP of $25.45 trillion, retains the capacity to manage its debt through exports and technological advancements, further reducing the risk of a debt crisis [11][12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing trend of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) purchasing gold despite rising international gold prices, indicating a strategic move to bolster China's gold reserves and diversify its foreign exchange holdings [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank's Gold Purchases - As of September, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,387 billion, with a 0.5% increase from August, and the PBOC purchased 40,000 ounces of gold, marking 11 consecutive months of gold accumulation [3][5]. - The current gold holdings represent only about 7% of China's foreign exchange reserves, significantly lower than the global average of 15% and some European countries' holdings, which can be as high as 50% [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Gold Accumulation - The primary reason for the PBOC's gold purchases is China's relative lack of gold reserves compared to its economic size, which necessitates increasing gold holdings to stabilize its foreign exchange reserves [3][5]. - The complex international landscape, including trade tensions and sanctions, has led to a declining trust in the US dollar, prompting a shift towards gold as a more stable asset [6][7]. - Gold serves as a hedge against potential currency risks and can act as a "last resort" payment method during economic downturns, making it a crucial asset for national financial security [9]. Group 3: Implications for Renminbi Internationalization - The article posits that for the Renminbi to gain international acceptance, it needs to be backed by gold, similar to the Bretton Woods system where the dollar was convertible to gold [12]. - The PBOC's strategy to increase gold reserves is seen as essential for enhancing the Renminbi's global influence and supporting its internationalization efforts [10][12]. Group 4: Concerns Over US Economic Stability - The article highlights concerns regarding the US government's financial instability, including a significant debt burden and recent government shutdowns, which have heightened global risk aversion [13][15]. - The PBOC's gold purchases are viewed as a proactive measure to secure China's economic stability in light of potential declines in US dollar dominance [15].

Group 1 - The current U.S. national debt has reached $37.2 trillion, exceeding the entire annual GDP of the U.S. by 20%, with a deficit rate surpassing 15% [3] - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2008 [3][5] - Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with Japan's holdings rising to $1.15 trillion and the UK's to $899.3 billion, marking a historical high [5][13] Group 2 - China has been selling U.S. Treasury bonds to purchase gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves to 7.402 million ounces, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [7] - The proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves is only 7.6%, significantly lower than the world average of 15% and much lower than developed countries like the U.S. and Germany [9] - There is a global trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with a reported increase of 166 tons in Q2 of this year, indicating a shift in foreign exchange strategies to mitigate risks associated with the U.S. dollar [11]