外汇储备结构优化
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中国连续12个月增持黄金
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 12:03
Core Insights - The strategic function of China's foreign exchange reserves is shifting from traditional liquidity support to asset structure optimization and currency credit support amid global economic adjustments and geopolitical risks [2][5][8] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433 billion, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months, marking the highest level since November 2015 [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves to 7.409 million ounces, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation since November 2024 [2][4] Gold Reserves - The recent increase in gold reserves was approximately 3,000 ounces (about 1 ton), which is significantly lower than previous monthly purchases of 10 tons or more, attributed to high gold prices [3][4] - Currently, gold reserves account for only 8.0% of China's official international reserves, which is below the global average of 15% [4] U.S. Treasury Bonds - The PBOC is adopting a strategy of "continuously increasing gold reserves while moderately reducing U.S. Treasury holdings" to optimize reserve structure and enhance the credit foundation of the Renminbi [4][5] - The recent stability in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to a rise in the U.S. dollar index and a significant increase in global financial asset prices, which offset potential declines in reserves [4][7] Global Trends - Since 2022, global central bank gold purchases have surged, with net purchases reaching 1,089 tons in 2024, the highest on record, indicating a reassessment of the traditional dollar-dominated reserve system [6][8] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the trend of financial sanctions have led to a systemic risk in over-concentration on a single sovereign bond, prompting a shift towards increasing gold allocations [5][6] Future Outlook - The PBOC's strategy of gradually increasing gold reserves while managing U.S. Treasury holdings is seen as a long-term approach to enhance financial security and support the internationalization of the Renminbi [7][8] - The expansion of the Renminbi's cross-border usage and the improvement of domestic currency settlement mechanisms will necessitate a more urgent and practical optimization of foreign reserve structures [8]
我国央行连续12个月增持黄金 专家:未来仍可能增持
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-11-07 13:20
中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析称,黄金脱离了单一主权货币体系,在美元剧烈波动、美元资产信 用下滑的长期趋势下,通过增加黄金储备有助于优化我国的外汇储备结构、分散美元资产占比过高的风 险。此外,当前全球地缘政治风险高企,区域冲突此起彼伏,黄金的避险和抗通胀属性决定了其仍有较 大的投资需求和升值空间,有助于我国外汇储备保值增值。 "近期央行继续增持黄金,主要原因是美国新政府上台后,全球政治、经济形势出现新变化,国际金价 有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。这意味着从控制成本角度出发暂停增持黄金的必要性下降,而从 优化国际储备结构角度增持黄金的需求上升。"王青表示。 对此,东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出,2025年10月末官方黄金储备连续第十二个月增加,但增量连 续第八个月处于低位,符合市场预期。10月美联储继续降息,美国政府持续对美联储货币政策独立性施 加压力,加之国际地缘政治风险居高不下,带动当月国际金价继续上涨。这就导致10月央行增持黄金规 模降至2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平。 不仅我国,各国央行购金需求也持续高涨,黄金已超越欧元成为全球第二大储备资产。 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 在冲 ...
中国需持续增持黄金储备 适度减持美债
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-11-07 11:00
Core Viewpoint - The strategic function of China's foreign exchange reserves is shifting from traditional liquidity support to asset structure optimization and currency credit support in the context of a changing global economic landscape and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433 billion, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months, marking the highest level since November 2015 [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves to 7.409 million ounces, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation since November 2024 [1][3]. - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to a slight rise in the dollar index and a corresponding increase in global financial asset prices, which offset potential declines in reserves due to non-dollar asset depreciation [2]. Group 2: Gold Reserves and Strategy - China's gold reserves account for only 8.0% of its official international reserves, significantly lower than the global average of 15%, prompting a strategy of increasing gold reserves while reducing U.S. Treasury holdings [2][3]. - The PBOC's recent gold purchases, amounting to 3,000 ounces (approximately 1 ton), reflect a cautious approach due to high gold prices, contrasting with previous months' larger purchases [1][3]. - The ongoing global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves, with a net purchase of 1,089 tons in 2024, indicates a reevaluation of the traditional dollar-dominated reserve system [4]. Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, and the frequent political interference in monetary policy is diminishing the "risk-free" status of dollar assets, necessitating a shift in reserve asset allocation [3][4]. - The strategic increase in gold reserves is seen as essential for enhancing national financial security and supporting the internationalization of the renminbi [3][5]. - The future strategy will likely involve a gradual increase in gold holdings while reducing the concentration of U.S. Treasury securities, ensuring liquidity and yield without significantly raising costs [4][5].
我国再抛美债825亿,降至14年来新低,美债有暴雷的风险吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-03 17:37
中国持续减持美国国债,引发市场关注。最新数据显示,今年六月,中国持有的美国国债金额环比减少了113亿美元,约合人民币825亿元。至此,中国持有 的美债总额已缩减至8354亿美元,达到了近14年来的最低水平。 一些声音质疑,既然中国一直在减持美债,为何不彻底清仓?实际上,持有部分美元资产对中国而言仍具战略意义。作为国际通用货币,美元在进口国内急 需的商品时扮演着不可或缺的角色。 包括中国在内的许多国家,都对美国不断累积的债务"雪球"感到忧虑,担心未来可能出现债务违约。因此,在当前美联储持续加息、美元指数处于历史高位 之际,适时减持美债,是降低潜在违约风险的明智之举。 其次,此举也是为了优化中国外汇储备的结构。长期以来,中国外汇储备中美元资产占据了高达70%的比例,其余30%才为黄金、欧元、英镑等非美元资 产。一旦美元出现大幅贬值,中国将面临巨大的账面损失。通过适度抛售美债,并在国际市场上增持黄金、欧元等资产,有助于分散风险,降低单一货币贬 值带来的冲击。 与中国形成鲜明对比的是,位居第二大美债持有国地位的日本,在增减持美债的操作上显得有些摇摆不定。数据显示,日本在四月份增持了393亿美债,五 月份又减持了304 ...
美国37万亿债务压顶,中国悄然出手!连续增持黄金!有何深意?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 13:38
当国际黄金价格触碰4000美元大关,并不断创下历史记录的同时,中国央行却依然在疯狂购买黄金。 央行持续购买黄金 根据10月7日央行发布的数据,截止9月份中国拥有外汇储备33387亿美元,比8月份增长0.5%,跟重要 的是,我们还购买了4万盎司黄金,这意味着中国已经连续11个月增持黄金。 为什么黄金大涨,央行还要购买黄金呢?先说结论:央行买黄金不仅非常必要,而且未来一段时间内, 央行都将持续购买黄金。 央行为啥要狂买黄金? 央行为啥要一直购买黄金?主要原因有很多。首要的原因是因为中国"缺金"。 虽然中国是全球第二大经济体,但是我们的外汇储备规模一直都比较畸形。我们储备的美元资产,特别 是美国国债非常多,但是黄金却很少。 算上这次,央行已经连续11个月增持黄金了 数据来看,黄金在中国央行外汇储备中的资产占比仅有7%左右。全球的平均水平则高达15%,甚至欧 洲一些国家的黄金占比高达50%以上。从这个角度来看,中国拥有长期购买黄金的基本盘和需求。 第二个原因在于应对复杂多变的国际形势。 随着特朗普上台以后,不仅中美之间贸易战重新开打,全球的贸易战也同样打响。这个时候国际贸易就 存在严重不确定性,再加上美国不断的制裁世 ...
中国再抛257亿美债,美国“大动脉”被切,逼出2个接盘国
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 06:20
而且,这些国债,大部分都是美国人自己买的,外国投资者大概只持有24.6%。也就是说,美债超过七成都是美国内部消化。 不过最近中国选择了再次减持美债257亿美元,持仓降至7307亿美元,成为2008年以来最低持仓水平。当然,中国也是美国第三大海外债主。 同时,这也是我们今年以来第四次减持美债,具体看看今年的操作: 1月增持18亿美元、2月增持235亿美元,3月至5月分别减持189亿美元、82亿美元、9亿美元,6月小幅增持1亿美元,7月则大幅减持257亿美元,持仓规模 再创新低。 也就是说,虽然期间也有几次增持,但是总体来说,今年今年前7个月,我国美债持仓规模仍然是下降的。 显然,此举对于美国来说不会太高兴。毕竟咱们持续减持美债有可能会动摇美债的市场表现和美元霸权,这意味着美国大动脉都被切了,而且咱们这么做 就明摆着是不打算为美国的衰退买单。 克林顿:把美债干到5.67万亿美元。 小布什:干到10.2万亿美元。 奥巴马:干到19.5万亿美元。 特朗普:债干到27.7万亿元。 拜登:干到35万亿美元。 现在美国国债已经达到37.2万亿美元,比整个美国一年的经济总量(GDP)还高出20%,赤字率达到一战水平,超过15 ...
中国继续减持美债、增持黄金!为啥越来越多国家“不买账”了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 12:45
最近,中国持续减持美国国债的消息频频登上财经热搜。根据美国财政部2025年7月发布的数据,中国 在当月就减持了257亿美元的美债,折合人民币约1829亿元,持仓规模下降至7307亿美元。 这一数字不仅创下2009年以来的新低,也意味着中国如今已经退居美国第三大海外债主,排在日本和英 国之后。 要知道,从2022年开始,中国就开启了持续减持美债的节奏:2022年减持1732亿美元,2023年减持508 亿美元,2024年减持573亿美元。而到了2025年,减持的力度显然更猛。 更惊人的是,2025年,全球央行持有的黄金总市值,首次超过了他们手中的美债市值,这是自1996年以 来头一回。如今黄金已经成为全球第二大央行储备资产,占比达到20%,仅次于美元的46%。欧元则以 16%排在第三。 中国的策略很明确:减持美债是为了降低风险敞口,增持黄金是为了提升资产安全性,同时也是为人民 币国际化铺路。毕竟黄金不受任何单边制裁的影响,是对冲美元风险的"压舱石"。 减美债、买黄金,中国打的是一盘怎样的棋? 那为什么中国要这么做?原因其实很清晰:首先,美国的债务问题越来越严重。到2025年,美国国债已 经突破了37万亿美元。信 ...
大抛售重启,美债只剩7307亿,机会难得,中国抛售突然加速
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 20:43
7月中国巨额抛售美债,金融版图悄然重塑 2025年7月,中国金融市场掀起巨澜:一口气抛售了价值257亿美元的美国国债,平均每日"清仓"超过8亿美元。这一惊人举措,不仅令华尔街坐立不安,更 将中国持有的美债总额骤降至7307亿美元,创下自2009年以来的历史新低,相较于2013年1.3万亿美元的巅峰时期,已然腰斩。 然而,当中国大幅减持美债之际,全球金融版图却上演着令人玩味的"反转剧"。英国在此期间疯狂涌入413亿美元美债,而日本也增持了38亿美元。这截然 相反的操作,映射出一场静默进行中的全球金融势力重构。 告别"美债依赖",中国步伐稳健 黄金作为一种非主权信用储备资产,不受单边制裁的影响,能够有效对冲单一货币风险,特别是美元的波动。这正是中国优化外汇储备结构战略的重要组成 部分。目前,中国黄金储备占国际储备资产的比例仅为7.3%,远低于15%的全球平均水平。若要将黄金占比提升至10%,中国仍需增持约2000万盎司黄金。 中国减持美债并非一日之寒。早在2022年4月,中国的美债持仓便已跌破万亿美元大关,自此便开启了持续性减持的轨迹:2022年全年累计减持1732亿美 元,2023年减少508亿美元,2024年 ...
中国大规模减持美债,一个月抛了超1800亿元!央行已连续10个月买入黄金
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-20 14:46
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a notable decrease of $25.7 billion in July 2025, bringing its total holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [1][2] - This reduction marks the fourth time China has decreased its U.S. Treasury holdings in 2025, continuing a trend that began in April 2022 when holdings fell below $1 trillion [2] - The overall trend shows that China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024, indicating a consistent pattern of divestment [2] Group 2 - In contrast to China's actions, Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting China's unique position in the current market [3] - Analysts attribute China's reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings to concerns over U.S. fiscal policies, including tariffs and the rising national debt, which has reached $37 trillion [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the potential for a weakened dollar are also cited as factors influencing China's decision to reduce its U.S. Treasury exposure [4] Group 3 - Concurrently, the People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, with a total of 74.02 million ounces as of the end of August 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset [7] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a way to hedge against the risks associated with a single currency, particularly the dollar, and to enhance the credibility of the Chinese yuan in international markets [7][8] - China's gold reserves currently account for 7.3% of its official international reserve assets, which is significantly lower than the global average of around 15%, indicating room for further increases [7][8]
外储再超3.3万亿美元 央行连续10个月增持黄金
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-07 18:20
Core Viewpoint - As of the end of August, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,222 billion, marking an increase of $299 billion from the end of July, with a growth rate of 0.91% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.2 trillion for 21 consecutive months, indicating stable economic performance and resilience [2] - The increase in reserves is attributed to factors such as changes in major economies' monetary policies and macroeconomic data, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and an overall rise in global financial asset prices [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The decline in the US dollar index was influenced by weaker US economic data and heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, following disappointing non-farm payroll numbers and stable inflation levels [1] - Despite rising expectations for a rate cut in September, uncertainties remain due to ongoing inflation increases and relatively low unemployment rates in the US [1] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of the end of August, China's official gold reserves stood at 74.02 million ounces, with an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month, marking ten consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [2] - The proportion of gold in China's official international reserves is significantly lower than the global average, suggesting a potential direction for future increases in gold holdings to optimize reserve structure and support the internationalization of the renminbi [2]