Key Points - The US and China have significantly reduced bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with the same percentage of counter-tariffs [1][4][10] - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move for stable economic growth [2][4] - New regulations for major asset restructuring of listed companies have been implemented, introducing a phased payment mechanism and private equity fund arrangements [1][4] - The People's Bank of China reported a broad money (M2) balance of 325.17 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The US has lost its Aaa credit rating from major international credit rating agencies, indicating a decline in sovereign creditworthiness [1][10][11] - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $18.9 billion, making it the third-largest holder, while the UK has become the second-largest [1][11]

Domestic Macro Policy - The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation to counter international uncertainties, focusing on long-term growth and stability[2] - Recent policies aim to enhance agricultural technology innovation and support urban renewal projects through increased central budget investments and special bonds[3] - A comprehensive financial policy package was announced, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% cut in policy interest rates, alongside an increase of CNY 300 billion in technology innovation loans[17] Consumption and Financial Regulation - Provinces are issuing consumption vouchers exceeding CNY 1 billion, targeting integrated domestic and foreign trade, and enhancing consumer potential through various channels[19] - Financial regulatory bodies are reinforcing support for capital markets, including a commitment to stabilize the market and encourage long-term investments, with a recent approval of CNY 600 billion for insurance fund investments[21] Trade Relations - Recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a reduction of 91% in tariffs, with both sides agreeing to suspend additional tariffs for 90 days[24] - The UK and US have reached a trade agreement, with the UK making concessions on agricultural imports in exchange for reduced tariffs on automotive exports[28] Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, citing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and inflation risks[27] - Global trade policies are evolving, with significant agreements being reached between the US and other nations, including India and Qatar, enhancing economic cooperation[29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations and their implications for the global economy, particularly focusing on the potential for economic recovery and investment opportunities in various sectors. Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, alleviating extreme scenarios in bilateral trade and leading to a short-term boost in exports [1][8][9] - The effective tariff rate for the US has decreased from 23% to 13%, and for China, it has dropped to 31.8%, which is expected to lower recession risks in the US economy [8][9] - High-frequency shipping data indicates a recovery trend, suggesting a potential surge in exports from China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on the US market [20][21] Group 2: Economic Growth Drivers - The economic growth in early 2025 has been primarily driven by exports and investments in new sectors, with Q1 export delivery value increasing by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Investment in equipment and appliances saw quarterly growth rates of 19.0% and 19.3%, respectively, contributing to economic stability [1] - Despite the positive export outlook, challenges remain in real estate, consumer spending, local investment, and price stability, which need to be addressed for sustained growth [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following the trade talks, global stock markets exhibited a "risk-on" sentiment, with the Nasdaq leading asset classes, and the VIX index falling below 20 [4][5] - A-shares shifted focus to fundamental recovery expectations, policy observation, and export logic, with the overall market showing resilience after previous tariff-related declines [7] - The performance of various sectors varied, with over 60% of industries recording positive returns, particularly in beauty care, non-banking financials, and automotive sectors [7] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The article highlights the need for adjustments in monetary policy frameworks to address higher inflation volatility and supply shocks, as indicated by recent comments from the Federal Reserve [10][11] - The anticipated changes in the Fed's inflation targeting strategy may influence future economic conditions and investment strategies [11] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - Industries with high export dependence on the US, such as electronics and automotive parts, are expected to benefit from the short-term "export rush" following tariff reductions [21] - The article notes that industrial product prices are stabilizing, while food prices are experiencing mixed trends, indicating a complex inflationary environment [22] Group 6: Infrastructure and Investment Trends - The government is increasing support for urban renewal projects, which may enhance infrastructure investment and stimulate economic activity [23][24] - Recent data shows improvements in funding availability for construction projects, particularly in non-residential sectors, indicating a positive trend for infrastructure development [18]

Group 1: Foreign Investment and Investment Strategies - The global economic landscape is complex and fragmented, impacting growth and recovery, yet China remains open to foreign investment, emphasizing its unique market advantages such as a large scale and rich human capital [2][3] - Research indicates a significant positive correlation between a country's capital market openness and economic growth, with foreign institutional investors providing long-term capital that alleviates financing challenges for domestic companies, particularly in tech sectors [3] - Companies are encouraged to enhance their core competencies through technological innovation and cost reduction while diversifying their markets to mitigate external uncertainties, highlighting a dual approach of attracting foreign investment and expanding overseas [4] Group 2: Domestic Circulation and Internal Demand Activation - The new development strategy emphasizes domestic circulation as the mainstay, but faces structural challenges such as local protectionism and the need for a unified national market [5] - The government must assess the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate internal demand, especially in light of the challenges faced by the private sector regarding financing and a stable business environment [5][6] - Short-term issues include insufficient domestic demand, while long-term challenges focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrades, necessitating policy support and improvements in the financial system to enhance self-sufficiency in critical technologies [6]

2025 年 05 月 18 日 做强国内大循环 宏观研究团队 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  | 国内宏观政策：金融政策标志"以我为主"政策启幕 | 过去两周（5 月 4 日-5 月 18 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理李强强调， 要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环 上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性。 基建与产业方面, 近两周政策聚焦加快提升农业科技创新体系整体效能；工信部 召开部分省份工业经济运行座谈会，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变 化的不确定性；科技部推动加快构建科技金融体制；中办、国办印发《关于持续 推进城市更新行动的意见》，提出八方面主要任务，其中包括：推进城镇老旧小 区整治改造，开展完整社区建设，推进老旧街区、老旧厂区、城中村等更新改 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the uncertainties brought by the US-China tariff conflict, the Chinese market remains highly attractive to global capital due to its political stability, low corporate valuations, large market size, and human capital reserves [1][2] - China is advancing institutional opening and will keep its doors open for foreign investment, indicating a shift away from the previous state of free trade and globalization, with trade barriers and conflicts likely to persist in the future [1][2] - Companies are encouraged to innovate technologically, reduce costs, and diversify their markets to lessen dependence on the US and other single markets, while also pursuing outbound investments [1][2] Group 2 - The "going out" strategy is essential for Chinese companies to grow and strengthen their global competitiveness, despite the challenges posed by political, legal, and cultural factors [2] - Support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) affected by tariffs should combine short-term relief measures, such as tax reductions and loan extensions, with long-term strategies focused on technological innovation and market diversification [2] - To enhance domestic circulation, three major obstacles need to be addressed: breaking local protectionism, strengthening policy effectiveness assessments, and optimizing the development environment for the private economy [2][3] Group 3 - There is a need to further open financial and capital markets, as this will create a positive feedback loop with technological innovation, attracting foreign capital that can enhance corporate governance and provide long-term support for innovation [3] - The manufacturing sector is already fully open, and the next focus should be on the systematic opening of the service sector, with a caution to proceed in an orderly manner [3]

当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 以一种确定性，应对另一种不确定性，现在成为一个基本思路。 最大的不确定性，中美之间的贸易谈判，在一个月胶着较量之后，在中方给出具备实力的反制措施之 后，中美双方开启的第一次谈判突如其来，而让市场意外的谈判成果也突如其来。 美方取消对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改对中国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税 暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。相应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计91%的反制关税；针对 美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停其中24%的关税90天，其余10%的关税予以保留。中方还相应暂 停或取消对美国的相关非关税反制措施。 在此形势下，一股"抢出口"的航运行情出现了。采购商订单增加的预期之下，货船是否够用成为新的问 题，热闹的景象之下，90天的期限，对于国内的生产制造商来说到底是积极清库存，还是积极加大未来 的生产计划，这些又都是不确定的。 责任编辑：徐芸茜 主 ...

做强国内大循环，关键是建立自主完备的产业链供应链，补上中国产业链供应链短板弱项， 这样才能避免受各种"卡脖子"风险，继续保持国内生产与消费的循环畅通。与此同时，通过 科技创新与产业创新，加强核心技术和前沿技术攻关，不断提升传统产业优势与新兴产业的 全球竞争力，满足市场对于供给侧高质量的升级需求。 畅通国民经济循环关键是扩大内需，培育完整内需体系，增强国内大循环需求牵引力。多年 以 来 ， 我 国 将 实 施 扩 大 内 需 战 略 同 深 化 供 给 侧 结 构 性 改 革 有 机 结 合 起 来 ， 供 需 两 端 同 时 发 力、协调配合，形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡，进而实现国民经济 良性循环。 当前，与供给侧相比，我国主要面对社会总需求不足的问题，供需存在一定的失衡。而总需 求不足主要体现在消费存在短板，要使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚，做强国内 大循环，就必须着重以消费提振畅通经济循环，以消费升级引领产业升级。 大力提振消费，促进国内大循环，首先要扩大就业，促进居民增收减负；其次，要将更多资 金资源"投资于人"，服务于民生，提高社会保障水平。根据近日央行发布的第一季度货币 ...

其他热点还有：财政发力支撑社融增速抬升，特朗普发布"药品降价"行政令 中美会谈取得实质性进展，关税调整正式实施 自北京时间14日12时01分（美东时间14日0时01分）起，中美同时调整对对方商品加征关税措施。 美方还同时下调或撤销对中国小额包裹（包括香港特别行政区小额包裹）加征的关税，将国际邮件从价 税率由120%下调至54%，撤销原定于6月1日起将从量税由每件100美元调增为200美元的措施。 当地时间12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中 方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关 税；双方各自保留10％的关税。同时，中美双方建立经贸磋商机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。 商务部新闻发言人表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平。这一举措符 合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。希望美方以这次会谈为基础，与中方 继续相向而行，彻底纠正单边加税的错误做法，不断加强互利合作，维护中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可 持续发展，共同为世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性。 【点评】新华时评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council emphasizes the importance of strengthening the domestic circulation to enhance economic stability and competitiveness in the face of global uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Key Aspects of Strengthening Domestic Circulation - The focus on efficient allocation of resources and factors, aiming to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation, while promoting a unified national market [2][3] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation, with an emphasis on tackling key core technologies and promoting the industrial application of scientific achievements [2][4] - The need for a self-sufficient and complete industrial and supply chain, enhancing regional cooperation and specialization to improve resilience in industrial development [2][4] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - The dynamic balance between supply and demand is crucial, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and addressing consumption shortfalls to lead industrial upgrades [2][5] - The importance of a smooth economic circulation, which includes breaking down market barriers and reducing institutional transaction costs to facilitate resource allocation [5] - The role of leading enterprises in driving collaboration among small and medium-sized enterprises to enhance the overall stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain [4][5]