Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic data in June showed differentiation, with the GDP in the first half of the year growing by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target. However, the foundation for economic stabilization needs to be consolidated. The central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operation signals stable liquidity, and "anti - involution" policy expectations in some industries are rising. Attention should also be paid to the possible further stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting in July [2][7]. - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift to a "loose - prone" policy stage. Tariff issues may impact demand expectations, and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are weak, and price volatility may remain high [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate more industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in May was mixed. Investment and export were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. In June, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year. However, the growth rate of social retail sales slowed down, and overall fixed - asset investment weakened. The central bank carried out a 1.4 - trillion - yuan reverse repurchase operation, and "anti - involution" policy expectations in some industries are rising [2]. - The US "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill may increase government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The Fed may face inflation pressure from tariffs, and there is a high probability of a rate cut in September. Trump has accelerated the implementation of tariffs, and attention should be paid to the impact on demand expectations [3]. Commodity Analysis - The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector remains unrelieved, the short - term geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is limited [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [5]. Key News - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. In June, the social retail sales were 422.87 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.8%. The fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of the year increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The industrial added value of large - scale industries in June increased by 6.8% year - on - year [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the selection process of the Fed Chairman. The US inflation data in June was released, and there is a high probability of a rate cut in September. The EU has determined a counter - measure list for US goods worth 72 billion euros. OPEC has maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast [3][6][7].

Group 1: Urbanization and City Renewal - The core focus of the new urbanization strategy is people-oriented, differentiated policies, and urban renewal, aiming to enhance the urbanization rate to 70% within five years [23][24] - Urban renewal encompasses the reshaping of urban functions, improvement of living quality, and preservation of historical culture, with current tasks emphasizing the renovation of old communities and infrastructure enhancement [23][25] - The report suggests paying attention to sectors related to interior design, building materials, underground pipelines, elevators, urban planning, and smart cities [25] Group 2: Economic and Market Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown resilience, with major indices experiencing increases, particularly the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index, which rose nearly 2% [28] - In June, social financing continued to increase year-on-year, supported by government bonds and improved credit issuance, reflecting positive economic factors [32][34] - The report highlights a significant increase in M1 year-on-year, attributed to seasonal fiscal efforts and improved consumer confidence due to easing external trade tensions [35] Group 3: Coal Industry Analysis - The coal industry has undergone significant supply-side reforms, with over 10 billion tons of outdated capacity eliminated by the end of 2020, resulting in a reduction of coal mines to below 4,700 [11] - The current environment reflects a situation of high operating rates leading to internal competition, rather than a traditional oversupply scenario [11][40] - The report suggests that controlling operating rates may be a key strategy for the coal industry to mitigate excessive competition [40] Group 4: Semiconductor and Electronics Sector - The semiconductor sector is expected to maintain optimistic growth, driven by AI demand and domestic market expansion, with a focus on storage and design segments [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly in the context of geopolitical risks [19] - Companies like Jiangbo Long are highlighted for their potential growth due to favorable market conditions and technological advancements [18]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), in response to the ongoing trade negotiations and threats from the Trump administration [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The EU is facing "huge differences" in trade negotiations with the US, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods [2][3]. - The EU's initial list targeted $95 billion worth of US goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [2]. Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory measures include tariffs on industrial products, with over €65 billion of the €72 billion list consisting of industrial goods such as aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [10][11]. - The EU is also considering measures against the US service sector and utilizing the strongest tools available, including anti-coercion measures [11]. Economic Impact - The proposed 30% tariff would significantly impact transatlantic trade relations, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade structure [5][10]. - Experts believe that the EU's negotiation stance has shifted from zero tariffs to accepting a 10% general tariff, indicating a significant concession [5][10]. Broader Trade Context - The EU is seeking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is considering cooperation with CPTPP members as part of its strategy to counter US tariffs [12]. - The World Bank has noted that by December 2024, the CPTPP will include countries that account for about 15% of global GDP, highlighting the EU's interest in engaging with both developed and emerging markets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The termination of the long-standing "Tomato Agreement" between the U.S. and Mexico has led to the imposition of a 17.09% tariff on most Mexican tomatoes, significantly impacting prices for consumers and businesses in the U.S. [1][4][6] Group 1: Impact on Consumers - The new tariff will increase costs for consumers in grocery stores and restaurants, particularly affecting items that use tomatoes, such as salads and pizzas [1][6] - The CEO of a major tomato distributor indicated that prices for tomatoes could rise by nearly 10% due to the new tariffs, which may lead to increased living costs for consumers across the U.S. [6][11] Group 2: Impact on Businesses - The new tariff threatens the livelihoods of tens of thousands of Mexican tomato farmers, with U.S. Department of Agriculture estimating a 5% reduction in Mexico's tomato exports this year [6][9] - Many U.S. businesses, particularly in the restaurant sector, are facing potential bankruptcy due to rising tomato prices, with some owners already considering menu price increases to cope with the costs [11][13] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Dynamics - Approximately 60% of fresh fruit and 40% of fresh vegetables in the U.S. are imported, with Mexico being the largest supplier [5] - The termination of the agreement is seen as a political move rather than a commercial one, with experts noting that U.S. growers may not be able to fill the gap left by reduced imports from Mexico [9][11] Group 4: Employment Effects - The reduction in tomato imports could lead to a decrease in related job opportunities, with previous reports indicating that importing and selling fresh tomatoes from Mexico supports around 47,000 full-time and part-time jobs in the U.S. [9][11]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant frustration among EU member states [1][2] - The EU initially attempted to negotiate a balanced tariff of 10% but ended up facing a unilateral 30% tariff, indicating a failure in their negotiation strategy [1] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's decision to delay countermeasures against the U.S. has been criticized as a missed opportunity for a strong response [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government is focused on implementing new customs tariffs rather than considering the impact on consumer prices, showcasing a hardline stance [2] - The EU's response has been perceived as weak, with the Commission acting as a spokesperson for U.S. policies rather than defending EU interests [2] - The situation highlights the vulnerability of the EU in the face of U.S. trade policies, suggesting that the EU may be seen as a tool for U.S. interests rather than a unified entity [2]

Group 1: Domestic Policy Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of international operations for domestic enterprises, highlighting the increasing significance of overseas investments for domestic economic development [11] - The recent meeting between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Brazilian President Lula underscores the strengthening of China-Brazil relations, with bilateral trade reaching a record $181.5 billion in 2023 [11] - The Chinese government is committed to enhancing support for enterprises operating abroad, focusing on financial, insurance, and safety measures to create a better environment for business [11] Group 2: Overseas Policy Insights - The U.S. has initiated a new round of tariff pressures, threatening high tariffs on 25 countries if they do not comply with U.S. demands by August 1 [19] - The tariffs range from 25% to 50% depending on the country, with significant implications for international trade dynamics [19] - The U.S. administration's focus on reducing trade deficits may lead to further escalations in trade tensions, impacting global markets [19] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a positive trend, with major indices like the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising nearly 2% in the past week, driven by improved market sentiment [25] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 24.119 billion yuan during the second week of July, indicating strong investor interest in A-shares [25] - The MSCI China A-share Index also saw a 1.06% increase, reflecting overall market optimism [25] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in open market operations last week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield has shown slight recovery, reflecting market adjustments to the evolving monetary policy landscape [49] - The expansion of the Bond Connect program to include more non-bank institutions is expected to enhance overseas asset allocation opportunities for domestic investors [50] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals have continued to decline, while precious metals have rebounded slightly, indicating mixed trends in the commodity market [49] - The IEA reports that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, which may impact oil prices moving forward [49] - The Chinese government has set clear goals for new urbanization, which may influence agricultural and commodity markets in the long term [49]

Policy and Macro Analysis - The report highlights the increasing internationalization of Chinese enterprises, emphasizing their importance to domestic economic development as stated by Premier Li Qiang during a meeting with Chinese companies in Brazil [11] - The U.S. has initiated a new round of tariff pressures, threatening high tariffs on 25 countries if they do not comply with U.S. demands by August 1 [19][24] - The report notes that the U.S. tariffs vary significantly by country, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff, while other countries like Japan and South Korea face tariffs of 25% [23] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a positive trend, with major indices like the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising nearly 2% in the past week, influenced by the U.S.-China discussions [4][27] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 24.119 billion yuan during the second week of July, indicating strong investor interest [27] - The MSCI China A-share Index increased by 1.06% during the same period, reflecting overall market optimism [27] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has signaled a commitment to increasing monetary easing, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in open market operations last week [47] - The DR007 rate remained low, dropping to 1.46% on July 8, indicating a relaxed liquidity environment [47] Commodity Market Analysis - The report notes a decline in non-ferrous metals prices, while crude oil has seen a slight recovery, and precious metals have rebounded [5] - The IEA has reported that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, impacting commodity pricing strategies [5] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index has shown slight strengthening, closing at 97.87, while the Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.17 against the dollar [5] - The report indicates that the continuous increase in foreign exchange reserves and the expansion of gold reserves by the central bank reflect a stable financial strategy [5] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report suggests a cautious approach to asset rotation in July, emphasizing the need to prevent overheating in the market [5] - It anticipates further fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing to address potential uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to Japan, coinciding with the upcoming Japanese Senate elections, which may influence U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, particularly regarding the proposed 25% "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [1][2] - Nomura Securities reports that the Japanese government is coordinating a meeting between Yellen and Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizuki Ryozo, to discuss the recent tariff proposals [1] - The report indicates that while a breakthrough in trade negotiations is unlikely in the immediate future, even a delay in the implementation of tariffs could limit the upward movement of the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The articles note that U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to Japan may also facilitate discussions on tariffs for specific industries, including the automotive sector [1] - There is a historical context suggesting that any potential meeting between Yellen and Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, could significantly impact exchange rate trends, as previous discussions hinted at U.S. efforts to curb the rise of the USD/JPY [2] - Kato has indicated that he does not plan to meet with Yellen next week, as he is likely to attend the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in South Africa, which may lead the market to anticipate discussions on exchange rates if he cancels his trip [1][2]

FICC日报 | 2025-07-15 关注中国6月经济数据和美国6月CPI数据 市场分析 "反内卷"预期火热。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累财 政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需求 透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下。中国6月制造业PMI 有所回升，但主要依赖部分原材料行业回升带动，国内经济企稳基础仍需夯实。中国上半年货币政策支持实体经 济效果比较明显。2025年6月末，广义货币(M2)余额330.29万亿元，同比增长8.3%，比上月高0.4个百分点，比上年 同期高2.1个百分点。6月，中国社融增量4.2万亿元，新增人民币贷款2.24万亿元，6月，M2-M1剪刀差为3.7个百分 点，较5月的5.6个百分点缩小1.9个百分点。中国6月出口（以美元计价）同比增长5.8%，增速较前值上升1%，其 中出口增长较快的行业包括集成电路、船舶、汽车等，6月对美出口降幅收窄，对美出口金额比重占出口总额的比 重有所回升，主要是因为中美贸易缓和促进对美出口恢复；中 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the unexpected imposition of a 25% tariff on all goods exported from Japan and South Korea to the US, which has led to a significant deterioration in relations between these countries and the US [2][4][13] - Japan and South Korea are seeking to reduce their military dependence on the US and are taking steps towards greater autonomy in security matters, marking a shift in their long-standing alliance with the US [1][9][11] - The tariffs have caused immediate economic repercussions, with stock markets in Tokyo and Seoul dropping sharply, and major companies like Toyota and Hyundai experiencing significant losses in market value [2][4] Group 2 - Japan's government is considering selling US Treasury bonds as a countermeasure against the tariffs, indicating a potential shift in financial relations [6] - South Korea is accelerating the development of its domestic defense systems and has signed agreements to acquire advanced military technology from Russia, showcasing a move away from reliance on US military support [11][15] - The military cooperation between the US, Japan, and South Korea is under strain, with joint exercises being scaled back and Japan asserting more control over its defense budget and strategies [13][15][17] Group 3 - The crisis triggered by the tariffs is seen as a turning point in US-Japan-South Korea relations, with both countries taking significant steps to assert their independence from US influence [17] - The potential for an "Asian version of NATO" is being questioned as Japan and South Korea explore new military partnerships and defense strategies outside of the US framework [15][17]