Group 1 - The concept of free cash flow is crucial in Buffett's value investment philosophy, reflecting a company's ability to return value to shareholders and creditors, as well as its capacity for future development [1] - Free cash flow has advantages over net profit as it is derived from the cash flow statement, which has higher transparency and is less susceptible to manipulation [1] - Recent market trends show an increase in cash flow ETFs, which primarily use free cash flow yield as a selection criterion, indicating a long-term effectiveness of cash flow strategies in the A-share large and mid-cap stock selection [1][2] Group 2 - Cash flow ETFs and strategies are considered to have advantages over dividend strategies, as they can better avoid value traps and provide timely insights into a company's cash flow [2] - The FTSE Free Cash Flow Index has shown a remarkable annualized return of over 20% from the end of 2013 to 2024, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises and companies with high dividend yields and low valuations [2] - Recent policy changes, including the new "National Nine Articles" and market value management regulations, encourage companies with high free cash flow to convert it into dividends and buybacks, enhancing shareholder returns [3] Group 3 - The upcoming dividend season and potential easing of external trade tensions create an opportunity for cash flow ETFs to be a core asset allocation, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation during market dips [3]

央行官宣降准又降息，银行全天走势较强。截至2025年5月7日收盘，A股顶流银行ETF（512800）高开高走，场内价格上涨1.51%，连收5日、10日线，重返 所有均线上方，全天成交额超5亿元，环比放量逾1亿。 | 分时 多日 = | 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级参加 画线 工具 ◇ ② » | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800.SHI银行ETFI 2025/01/06 收 1.455 幅0.90%(0.013) 开 1.444 四 | | | 1 542 +0.023 +1.51% | | | | MA5 1.467 MA10 1.4721 MA20 1.4521 MA60 1.4191 MA120 1.3511 NY = 0 | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 15:00:18 闭市 | | | | | | | 净值走势 华宝中证银行ETF | | 文生 3.84% | | 1.542 | | 委比 | -4.46% 委差 | -3763 | 5 5 -0.19% | | | | 375 | 1.546 | 24 ...

Group 1 - The first batch of 12 CSI All Share Free Cash Flow ETFs was approved in April, with five funds already established and listed by May 6 [2] - The ETFs aim to track the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index, focusing on listed companies with high cash flow characteristics [2] - Notable institutional investors in the ETFs include companies like Shanxi Changtai Energy Group and Datong Xingergou Coal Industry, indicating interest from corporate entities in these financial products [2][4] Group 2 - The Southern Free Cash Flow ETF raised a total of 1.909 billion yuan, with significant holdings from Sichuan Longmang Group [4] - The trend of private equity firms increasing their participation in the ETF market is evident, with several private institutions appearing among the top holders of newly established ETFs [6] - The investment strategy focusing on high dividend and free cash flow companies is seen as a key theme for equity markets this year, with regulatory support encouraging companies to enhance investor returns through dividends and buybacks [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that insurance capital is increasingly favoring high-dividend assets, particularly in the banking sector, as they seek stable long-term returns [1][2][3] - As of the end of Q1 2025, insurance capital appeared in the top ten shareholders of 735 stocks, holding a total of 607.98 billion shares valued at 580.88 billion yuan [1] - The banking sector is the most favored by insurance capital, with an increase of 188 million shares in Q1 2025, bringing the total holdings to 27.82 billion shares valued at 265.78 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Insurance capital has made 13 significant share acquisitions in 2025, with 6 of these involving bank stocks, indicating a strong preference for this sector [2] - The preference for bank stocks is attributed to the stable dividend cash flow they provide, which helps offset declining interest income [2] - In addition to banking stocks, insurance capital has also increased holdings in transportation, real estate, telecommunications, and public utilities, with notable investments in China Unicom, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Gemdale Corporation [2][3] Group 3 - In Q1 2025, insurance capital increased its investment in the transportation sector, with significant movements in shares of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and other companies [3] - Insurance capital has become a top ten shareholder in nearly 180 stocks, with substantial holdings in companies like China CITIC Bank, China State Construction, Weichai Power, and Suzhou Bank [3] - The trend towards high-dividend assets is expected to continue, as insurance capital prioritizes stability and safety in investment returns amid low interest rates and asset scarcity [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking sector Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on real estate, consumer promotion, and increased social security [3] - Key banks to watch include Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Changshu Bank under a pro-cyclical strategy, while Shanghai Bank, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Bank are highlighted under a dividend strategy [3] Summary by Sections Credit Growth - As of March 2025, the total loan balance reached 269.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. The RMB loan balance was 265.41 trillion yuan, growing by 7.4% [1] - In March, Sichuan, Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu led in credit growth rates, all exceeding 10%, with growth rates of 11.6%, 10.2%, 10.2%, and 10.1% respectively [1] - For enterprise loans, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong had the highest growth rates at 14.3%, 14.1%, and 13.6% respectively [2] - In the residential loan segment, Shanghai and Shaanxi showed notable growth rates of 13.6% and 7.2% respectively [2] Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the stock market was 11,040.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 427.29 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending was 1.80 trillion yuan, down by 0.33% from the previous week [4] - The issuance of non-monetary funds totaled 21.998 billion, a decrease of 2.582 billion from the previous week [4] Interest Rate Market Tracking - The issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 249.34 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 718.44 billion yuan from the previous week [5] - The average interest rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.77%, unchanged from the previous week [8] Sector Performance - The banking sector is expected to show a positive trend due to policy catalysts, with a focus on cyclical stocks [3] - The report indicates that the banking sector's performance is closely tied to economic recovery, which may take time [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent cautious sentiment in the market has led investors to focus on defensive indices that can effectively manage portfolio drawdowns while capturing structural opportunities [1][2]. Dividend Indices - Since 2021, dividend indices characterized by high dividend yields and stable payouts have attracted significant capital [2]. - The CSI Dividend Total Return Index has achieved a cumulative return of 276.45% since 2014, outperforming the CSI 300 Total Return Index, which recorded a gain of 108.54% during the same period [2][4]. - The index has shown a strong ability to "weather bull and bear markets," with a positive return probability of 73% over 11 years, compared to 55% for the CSI 300 [4]. Low Volatility Dividend Index - The Low Volatility Dividend Index has enhanced its annualized return to 13.29% by incorporating a low volatility factor, achieving a cumulative return of 294.21% [4][5]. - This strategy has a single-year win rate of 91%, providing a better option for risk-averse investors [4]. Free Cash Flow Indices - Free cash flow is a critical metric for assessing a company's ability to generate real earnings after maintaining operations and capital expenditures [5]. - The National Free Cash Flow Index has achieved an annualized return of 19.03% since 2014, with a cumulative return of 578.83%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300's annualized return of 6.91% [5][9]. - Even during the volatile period from 2021 to 2023, the index recorded a cumulative increase of 103.74% [5]. Strategy Comparison - In a low-interest-rate environment, both dividend and free cash flow strategies have become focal points for investors seeking stable and potential investment directions [9][10]. - Dividend strategies tend to select mature companies with lower growth expectations, while free cash flow strategies can identify companies with both cash flow generation and reinvestment capabilities [10]. Index Performance Summary - The performance of various indices from 2014 to 2024 shows that the CSI Dividend Index and the National Free Cash Flow Index have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 in terms of cumulative returns and annualized returns [8][12]. - The positive return probabilities for these indices are notably higher, with the Low Volatility Dividend Index achieving a 91% win rate [8][12]. Conclusion - For investors seeking stable dividends, the CSI Dividend Index is a suitable choice, while those willing to accept some volatility for potentially higher long-term returns may find the Free Cash Flow Index more appealing [12].

Group 1: Core Insights - As of April 23, 2025, over one-third of companies have released their 2024 dividend plans, with more than half of the industries experiencing an increase in dividend rates, indicating a continued search for "new red horses" in dividend strategies [1][6]. - Among the primary industries, the household appliance manufacturing and transportation sectors have shown significant increases in dividend rates for 2024, with expected dividend yields exceeding 3.5% [6][17]. - In the detailed industry analysis, sectors such as small household appliances, express delivery, and building equipment have reported the highest increases in dividend rates [6][20]. Group 2: Dividend Performance Review - From April 16 to April 23, 2025, small-cap growth stocks led the market, while dividend stocks lagged behind, reflecting a phase of risk preference recovery after previous tariff disruptions [7][25]. - The performance of major broad-based indices increased during this period, with real estate, oil and gas, and packaging sectors performing well, while consumer goods and social services faced slight pressure [7][28]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dividend index's yield compared to government bond yields is currently at a high level, suggesting a favorable cost-benefit ratio for dividend investments [8][39]. - As of April 22, 2025, the dividend index's yield is approximately two standard deviations above the mean compared to government bond yields, indicating a high value for dividend strategies [8][40]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The report emphasizes a shift from "old dividends" to "new red horses," focusing on long-term allocation value in dividend assets, particularly in sectors like banking and technology [9][36]. - New investment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as agricultural chemicals, rare earth materials, lithium batteries, and hospitality, which are nearing supply clearing points and showing characteristics of "red horses" [9][36].

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

Group 1 - The banking sector has shown positive performance, with the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) rising by 0.10% and several constituent stocks experiencing significant gains, such as Chongqing Bank (601963) up by 7.21% and Jiangsu Jinzu (600901) up by 5.57% [1] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has seen a growth in scale of 979.54 million yuan this month, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on April 25, focusing on economic themes and indicating a continuation of policy support [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities noted that large banks are advancing their capital increase plans, and the mid-term dividend strategy is still in progress, indicating sustained long-term investment value in the banking sector [2] - The low interest rate environment continues to highlight the stability of bank earnings and dividends, with high dividend yield banks showing absolute returns [2] - The positive economic trend remains unchanged, with monetary and fiscal policies being firmly implemented since October 2024, which is expected to stabilize bank asset quality and support credit growth [2] Group 3 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index accounted for 15.22% of the index, with companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) among the top [3] - The performance of individual stocks within the index varies, with some stocks like Nanjing Steel (600282) showing a gain of 2.07%, while others like Hengyuan Coal Power (600971) saw a decline of 2.64% [5]

一季度，红利策略正在养老基金Y份额中全面崛起。 券商中国记者注意到，截至今年一季度末，首批纳入个人养老金投资目录的权益类指数基金中，多只红利 类产品管理规模跻身前列，展现出显著的资金吸引力。 随着市场风格转向，红利资产凭借稳定分红与抗波动优势，正在逐渐获得养老金资金青睐，从主题配置演 变为长期配置的关键一环。 红利类产品"霸榜" ，养老Y份额迎新局 2024年12月12日，多部门联合印发《关于全面实施个人养老金制度的通知》，并于12月15日起推广个人 养老金制度至全国。与此同时，首批85只权益类指数基金被纳入个人养老金投资产品目录。 在相关产品运行数月后，截至今年一季度末的数据显示，首批纳入个人养老金投资目录的权益类指数基金 中，当前管理规模排名靠前的多为红利类产品，红利资产已经成为养老市场的关注焦点。 具体来看，华泰柏瑞红利低波ETF联接Y以超过1.2亿元的资产净值高居同批产品规模榜首，充分展现了红 利策略在养老金长期配置中的吸引力。同时，该产品在一季度实现了7691万元的资产增量，位列同期产 品增量排名第一，在同类型个人养老金产品中稳坐领军位置。 资料显示，华泰柏瑞红利低波ETF联接Y成立于2024年12 ...