（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月9日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.55%报99.40，非美货币多数下跌。欧元兑美元跌0.56%报 1.1564，英镑兑美元跌0.75%报1.3303，澳元兑美元跌0.50%报0.6554。美元兑日元涨0.26%报153.0970， 美元兑加元涨0.51%报1.4024，美元兑瑞郎涨0.54%报0.8064。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar continues to strengthen, reaching a two-month high, with significant movements in various currency pairs, indicating a robust dollar performance in the forex market [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The US dollar index has risen above the 99 mark, marking a two-month high [1]. - The euro is trading around 1.1600 against the dollar, maintaining its lowest level since August 25 [1]. - The USD/JPY pair has reached the 153 mark, showing continued upward momentum [1]. - The AUD/USD has declined, falling below the 0.6600 level [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes reveal internal divisions among officials, suggesting a cautious approach to further rate cuts this year [2]. - The Bank of England's financial policy committee warns that a sudden shift in market perception of the Fed's independence could lead to a sharp revaluation of dollar asset prices [2]. - The European Central Bank officials express confidence in current interest rates, indicating no immediate need for further guidance, while acknowledging the potential for one more rate hike [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - A Reuters survey indicates that 17 out of 20 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower the cash rate to 2.25% in November [2]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a mid-term global economic growth rate of approximately 3%, lower than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.7% [4].

每经AI快讯，10月9日，美元指数短线走高，向上突破99，日内涨0.17%。 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of September, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $333.87 billion, an increase of $16.5 billion from the end of August, marking a 0.5% rise. This is the 22nd consecutive month that reserves have remained above $3.2 trillion [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves in September was influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies, leading to a slight fluctuation in the US dollar index and an overall rise in global financial asset prices [1] - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves, with the official gold reserves reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month. This marks the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] Group 2 - The stability of China's foreign exchange reserves is supported by the overall steady performance of the economy, with improvements in high-quality development and a diversified international trade environment [2] - The central bank's strategy of diversifying international reserves and dynamically adjusting gold reserves is expected to continue, with ongoing support for gold prices from both investment and hedging demand [3]

汇率方面，9月，美元指数收平于月初的97.8，前期市场对美联储降息已有充分定价，美元阶段性下跌 压力基本释放。非美货币相对疲弱对美元亦有支撑，日元、英镑兑美元分别下跌1.1%、0.5%。 另在资产价格方面，温彬称，以美元标价的已对冲全球债券指数上涨0.7%，美股延续强势上涨，9月美 国标普500指数上涨3.5%。美联储降息向全球释放流动性，主要经济体股市保持高景气，日经指数上涨 5.4%，欧洲斯托克指数上涨1.2%，股债双强对外储形成支撑。 黄金储备上，据人民银行官网发布的最新官方储备资产数据，截至9月末，中国官方黄金储备为7406万 盎司（约2303.523吨），较上月末增加4万盎司（约1.24吨）。目前，人民银行已连续11个月增持黄金。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟指出，从短期来看，9月金价累计涨幅超过10%，创14年最 大月度涨幅。人民银行连续11个月增持黄金，但增持规模略低于近几个月环比增加6万到7万盎司的水 平，显示出人民银行继续在优化储备结构、扩大黄金储备规模和控制增持成本等目标间取得动态平衡， 以更好地进行投资组合流动性管理、规避地缘政治不确定性和市场风险、对冲其他类别金融资产波动 性 ...

10月7日，国家外汇管理局披露，截至2025年9月末，我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美元，较8月末上升 165亿美元，升幅为0.5%。 对此，民生银行首席经济学家温彬解读称，9月份，受就业数据疲软影响，美联储如期降息25个基点， 联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%~4.25%，全球资产价格整体上涨，美元则低位震荡。受资产价格变 化与汇率波动综合影响，9月末外储环比上涨165亿美元。进一步看，9月末外汇储备已创2015年12月以 来最高，较上年末也大幅增加1363亿美元。 此外，最新数据显示，9月末黄金储备为7406万盎司，官方黄金储备已连续11个月增加。东方金诚首席 宏观分析师王青指出，近期央行继续增持黄金，主要原因是美国特朗普政府上台后，全球政治、经济形 势出现新变化，国际金价有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。这意味着从控制成本角度出发暂停增持 黄金的必要性下降，而从优化国际储备结构角度增持黄金的需求上升。 年内外储升1363亿美元 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年9月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指 数小幅震荡，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold showed strength during the National Day holiday, breaking through $4000. After the holiday, domestic gold is expected to open higher, and the upward trend is continued to be bullish [3]. - Silver also followed the upward trend during the holiday, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. After the holiday, silver is also expected to open higher, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen and may outperform gold [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$23.56 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$28.9 per ounce [10]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.154 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -$0.435 per ounce [13]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - For gold, this week, the spot - futures price spread was -$3 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - For silver, this week, the spot - futures price spread was -$61 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [18]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Price Spread - For gold, this week, the inter - month price spread was $7.1 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. - For silver, this week, the inter - month price spread was $65 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - The total cost of gold's cross - month positive arbitrage (buying TD and selling SHFE gold) was $5.25 per gram; for buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract, it was $15.06 per gram [30][31]. - The total cost of silver's cross - month positive arbitrage (buying TD and selling SHFE silver) was $74.09 per kilogram; for buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract, it was $179.09 per kilogram [32][33]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction of Spot Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, for gold on the SGE, the deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the same was true for silver [34]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.1 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 40.14% [36]. - COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.13 million ounces to 530.33 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio decreased to 35.6% [38]. - Gold futures inventory increased by 11,715 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 43.24 tons to 1,192 tons [40]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions - This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both increased slightly [42]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 1.42 tons [48]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 289 tons [50]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 83.6 last week to 82.2 [53]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was -0.15%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 14.97% [55]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.3 Non - farm Employment Performance - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.6 Fed Rate - cut Probability - The table shows the Fed's rate - cut probabilities at different meeting times and the corresponding implied interest rate changes [77].

其二，今天大家比较关心的是黄金，从目前的情况看，现货黄金已经突破了4000美元每盎司，而纽约期金目前已经正式站上了4000美元，盘中最高到了4020 美元，对于黄金的大涨，原因很复杂，我多少感觉主要还是市场的避险情绪升温，不要看现在的美股很强势，其实大部分资金非常谨慎了，我觉得有相当部 分资金为了对冲风险，将部分资金转移到了黄金的多头，这应该是目前金价持续上涨的核心逻辑。 问题是这跟港股的跳水有什么关系呢？我认为港股跟外围市场的联动性比较强，美股那边存在避险情绪，港股这边自然会受到相关的影响，这个时候部分外 资分流到黄金的多头则是不可避免的。 其三，今天还有一个新的现象，应该是从之前的两三天就开始了，美元指数开始上涨了，从10月6日就开始突破了重要的60日线压制，昨天上涨了0.48%， 今天则继续上涨，已经到了98.8960，试想一下接下来美元指数到了100，市场情绪会发生什么转变呢，换句话说目前已经开始发生了转变。 我觉得昨夜美股的下跌跟这个多少有些关系，一些资金对美股的风险认识越来越明显，不排除从美股撤出重新看涨美元，这个时候就会牵扯到一个问题，就 是美元指数跟港股的负相关情形，从过去的走势看，一直都是美 ...

每经AI快讯，美元指数7日上涨。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.48%，在汇市尾市收 于98.578。 ...

谈及9月外汇储备规模变动的原因，中银证券（601696）全球首席经济学家管涛分析称，这主要是受主 要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数小幅震荡，非美元货币涨跌互现，全球 金融资产价格总体上涨带来的正估值效应。当月，美联储开启年内首次降息，美元指数先跌后涨，收平 于月初的97.8。截至9月底，中国外汇储备余额刷新2015年12月以来新高，表明中国防范化解各种冲击 的能力继续提升。 10月7日，国家外汇管理局发布的统计数据显示，截至2025年9月末，我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美 元，较8月末上升165亿美元，升幅为0.5%。 展望下一阶段外汇储备形势，民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，美国特朗普政府"对等关税"政策基本落 地，多数经济体税率低于4月份最初设定的水平，中美贸易谈判亦稳步推进，国际贸易环境的不确定性 有所收敛，叠加我国贸易伙伴多元化、出口商品结构优化，出口继续发挥稳定跨境资金流动的基本盘作 用。我国稳步扩大金融市场开放，拓宽跨境投融资渠道，人民币多元化资产配置功能凸显，境内证券市 场对外资吸引力有望继续增强。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，有利于外 汇储备规模 ...