Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a shift in its committee composition, which may influence interest rate policies in the upcoming year, particularly with the retirement of Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, a known interest rate hawk [1][3]. Group 1: Changes in Fed Composition - Raphael Bostic's retirement in February opens a key position that could be filled by a more dovish appointee, potentially leading to a tilt towards more interest rate cuts [1][2]. - The Atlanta Fed does not have a voting role until 2027, but its non-voting members can still significantly impact policy discussions [2][3]. - The reappointment of all 12 regional Fed bank presidents is set to occur in March, a process that has historically been routine but may face scrutiny under the current administration [3]. Group 2: Political Influences - Questions have emerged regarding the potential influence of the Trump administration on the reappointment process of Fed officials [4]. - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook could create another vacancy, allowing for a new appointment aligned with lower interest rate views [5]. - Analysts express skepticism about significant changes in the Fed's composition due to political pressures, suggesting that the process will remain stable [6][7]. Group 3: Future Leadership - The impending nomination of a new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, is crucial, with candidates likely to favor lower interest rates [8]. - Potential nominees include current Fed governors and other economic leaders, all of whom are expected to adopt a more dovish stance on interest rates [8].

Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since May, trading below $100,000, marking a 20% decline over the past month [1][2] - Currently priced under $95,000, Bitcoin is at its lowest level in six months after reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October [2] Warner Brothers Discovery - Warner Brothers Discovery is involved in a bidding war with Comcast, Netflix, and Paramount Sky Dance, with shares up approximately 115% year-to-date [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have decreased, with odds falling below 50% due to recent commentary from Fed officials [4][5] - Minneapolis Fed President expressed concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation rather than support the job market [5][6] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Nvidia is set to report earnings, with expectations of $123 per share and revenues of $54.5 billion, indicating over 50% growth from the previous year [7][8] - A range of retail companies, including Target, Walmart, and Gap, will also report earnings, providing insights into consumer spending habits [8] Chinese ADRs Performance - Despite poor economic indicators, Chinese ADRs like JD and Tencent have performed well, with Xpong seeing significant gains of over 100% year-to-date [9][10][11] - Upcoming earnings reports from companies like Pinduoduo and Xiaomi are anticipated, with Pinduoduo facing market share challenges [11][12]

for more on the state of the economy and the the murky macro picture here. We are joined by Vincent Reinhardt, BNY investments chief economist, former Fed economist, do do you expect them to not cut in December, Vince, at this point. >> Oh, I I think they'll cut.And I think your conversation just now was exactly right. And you asked the right question, as did as did, Carl. Uh the answer, what has changed over the last couple months.Not a whole lot. We don't have a lot of data to support a a a changed outloo ...

are getting some breaking news out of the Fed. For that, let's get to Steve Leeman. Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Carl.Yeah, timing is everything. You ask about Schmidt. We got Schmidt here, Kansas City Fed President, uh, who desented at the last meeting, saying monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and that, he says, is where it should be.He suggests in the speech he's about to give his intention to oppose additional cuts again in December. Says he mind could change, but right now, that's the way he's leaning. cu ...

Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research.So, we're seeing a bit of a sell-off here and a few moving parts. I'm just looking at the latest Fed commentary actually coming out of Jeffrey Schmid, which has been an interesting dot there, particularly with regards to not agreeing with the rate cut that we saw the previous month. and then once again saying that uh he's unsur ...

Market Overview - The reopening of the government led to a market selloff, with the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 down 2.3% and 2.8% respectively, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6% [2] - The current market environment is characterized by a reset in asset valuations rather than panic, as bond prices remained stable despite falling equities and rising volatility [3][4] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts has contributed to a loss of confidence, with the probability of a rate cut in December now at 50% [4] - Recent earnings growth of approximately 13% year-over-year has not been sufficient to maintain elevated valuations, leading to a market adjustment [4] Cryptocurrency Impact - Bitcoin prices fell below the critical support level of $100K, trading down to $95K, which may raise broader investor concerns [5] Artificial Intelligence Investments - Companies investing heavily in AI are yet to demonstrate returns on those investments, with the focus primarily on capital expenditures rather than profitability [6] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - Notable layoffs, including Verizon's announcement of 15,000 to 20,000 job cuts, indicate a weakening employment situation, compounded by low consumer sentiment [7] Upcoming Market Events - Key earnings reports from Walmart and Target will provide insights into the health of the overall economy, particularly regarding the holiday season [9] - The release of minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to shed light on internal debates and monetary policy discussions [9] Investment Opportunities - Stocks that have experienced significant pullbacks may present opportunities for dollar-cost averaging, while increased volatility could benefit options traders [10]

格隆汇11月14日｜FP Markets首席市场分析师Aaron Hill在一份报告中表示，由于近期政府停摆导致官方 数据缺失，美联储十二月政策会议给决策者带来了艰难的挑战。美联储内部仍然存在分歧且保持谨慎， 尽管一些美联储官员仍支持降息，但"有意义的鹰派重新定价已经发生"，投资者不确定利率是否会被下 调。LSEG数据显示，货币市场目前定价降息与维持利率不变的概率大致相等。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

But your first guest today says don't be deterred. He thinks the S&P 500 will power up next year all the way to 7750. Let's start off a big day with Julian Emanuel, senior managing director of equity, derivatives, quantitative strategy at Evercore ISI.Julian, welcome. One day not a trend make, but do you have a take on what's happening today. >> Well, this is a classic buy the rumor, sell the news.Right. So the market turned last Friday on anticipation of the government reopening and essentially if you look ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on Oct. 29, 2025 in Washington, DC.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when he said a December rate cut wasn't in the bag.Recent remarks from Powell's colleagues point to plenty of apprehension over whether the central bank should deliver its third consecutive easing of policy when it meets Dec. 9-10.As a result, markets have re ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, most prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures declined. The main contract EC2602 dropped 2.3%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rose 24.5% week - on - week, which is expected to support the recovery of near - month freight rates. However, the recovery of terminal transport demand is not solid. The price increase by shipping companies in late November has basically failed, and the quotations at the end of November vary widely. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. The German economy has boosted market confidence and is expected to drive the eurozone economy to recover. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1632.000, down 38.5; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1170.3, down 16.90. - EC2602 - EC2605 spread: 461.70, down 2.90; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 251.30, down 20.60. - EC contract basis: - 127.20, up 300.69. - EC main contract open interest: 37284, up 4383 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1504.80, up 296.09; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1327.91, up 62.56. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1495.10, down 55.60; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1058.17, up 36.78; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1366.85, up 43.04. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2030.00, up 42.00; Panama freight index (daily): 1887.00, down 22.00. - Average charter price (Panamax): 17564.00, unchanged; average charter price (Capesize): 24050.00, down 3485.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening. The 43 - day US federal government shutdown crisis is about to end. The government shutdown may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth by two percentage points, and the October CPI and employment reports "may never be released". - Boston Fed President Collins believes the threshold for further interest rate cuts in the short term is "relatively high" due to concerns about high inflation. Fed Governor Milan expects inflation to fall and calls for interest rate cuts. Fed's Bostic prefers to keep interest rates unchanged until there is "clear evidence" that inflation is returning to the 2% target. - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with King Felipe VI of Spain. China is willing to import more high - quality Spanish products, explore cooperation potential in emerging fields, expand mutual investment, and jointly explore third - party markets such as Latin America. After the meeting, the two heads of state witnessed the signing of 10 cooperation documents in economic, trade, science and technology, and education fields [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Watch - November 14, 10:00: Year - on - year growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods in October; year - on - year growth rate of China's industrial added value above designated size in October. - November 14, 15:45: Final monthly rate of France's CPI in October. - November 14, 18:00: Revised annual rate of the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter; preliminary quarterly rate of the eurozone's seasonally - adjusted employment in the third quarter [1].