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中原期货晨会纪要-20250829
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 01:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the market, including macro - economic news, price movements of various commodities, and specific views on different product sectors. It also analyzes the short - term and medium - term trends of the stock market, suggesting that the market may experience short - term fluctuations but maintains a medium - term bullish structure [9][10][20][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic News - From August 24th to 27th, Chinese official representatives visited Canada, and both sides agreed to promote the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations. Subsequently, they will visit the US. The Chinese government will increase support for foreign trade enterprises, strengthen law enforcement in market competition order, and implement policies in multiple fields such as education, urban development, and data industry. The EU's economic confidence declined in August [9][10][11]. - The "2025 China's Top 500 Private Enterprises" list was released, with the entry threshold increasing to 27.023 billion yuan, total revenue reaching 43.05 trillion yuan, and total net profit of 1.8 trillion yuan [10]. - The National Data Bureau plans to launch a series of industrial policies this year, and it is predicted that the digital economy's added - value will reach about 49 trillion yuan by the end of this year, accounting for about 35% of GDP [10]. 3.2 Price Movements of Commodities - **Chemical Industry**: On August 29th, most chemical products' prices showed a downward trend compared to August 28th. For example, the price of coking coal decreased by 21.50 yuan to 1,153.50 yuan, a decline of 1.83%; the price of crude oil increased by 4.90 yuan to 486.60 yuan, an increase of 1.017% [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of most agricultural products also fluctuated. For instance, the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans decreased by 3.00 yuan to 3,924.00 yuan, a decline of 0.076%; the price of No. 1 cotton increased by 200.00 yuan to 14,270.00 yuan, an increase of 1.421% [6]. 3.3 Specific Views on Different Product Sectors 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On August 28th, peanut futures closed at 7,802 yuan/ton, showing narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see, with key support at 7,780 yuan and resistance at 7,830 yuan [14]. - **Sugar**: On August 28th, sugar futures closed at 5,602 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend. A bearish strategy is maintained, with key support in the 5,550 - 5,580 yuan range [14]. - **Corn**: On August 28th, corn futures closed at 2,185 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see, with key pressure at 2,180 - 2,190 yuan and support at 2,150 - 2,160 yuan [14]. - **Pigs**: The national average pig price was about 13.88 yuan/kg, with supply - demand games continuing. The futures market is bearish [14]. - **Eggs**: The national egg price was stable with a slight decline. It is expected that the price will rise slightly, but the increase is limited. Futures can be short - sold on rebounds [14][16]. - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton futures declined. Zhengzhou cotton has support from the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the overall inventory is high. Short - term long positions can be taken at low prices [16]. - **Logs**: On August 28th, log futures closed at 821.5 yuan/cubic meter. The market is in a weak - balance state, and it is recommended to operate in the 800 - 850 yuan range [16]. - **Pulp**: On August 28th, pulp futures closed at 5,002 yuan/ton, with a downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see, with key support at 4,950 yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Urea**: The domestic urea price increased slightly. Supply decreased, and demand may improve. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the 1,700 - 1,800 yuan range, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender on September 2nd [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: With the approaching peak demand season, the 2601 contract of caustic soda is running at a high level, and a bullish strategy can be adopted at low prices [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market trading volume is insufficient. Supply has decreased, and it is expected that the prices will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: For copper, if the price breaks through the oscillation range, a bullish strategy can be adopted. Aluminum consumption has improved, and the price is expected to remain high [18]. - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The 2601 contract is running weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The spot market trading improved, and the price may fluctuate in the short term but has upward potential in the medium term [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The black - series products rebounded, and the alloy market will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. High - level hedging should control funds, and speculation should be cautious [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price has fallen below the previous low. It is recommended to wait and see, and light - position long positions can be taken after a sharp decline with strict stop - losses [19]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On August 28th, the three major A - share indexes rose. The market may experience short - term fluctuations but maintains a medium - term bullish structure. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the index movement [20]. - **Stock Market**: The A - share market showed a rebound on August 28th. The market may experience short - term fluctuations, but the medium - term bullish structure remains unchanged. It is recommended to observe the market's repair strength and trading volume in the short term [20][22].
第七届中国—阿拉伯国家博览会举办
本报银川8月28日电(记者张文、焦思雨)28日,以"创新、绿色、繁荣"为主题的第七届中国—阿拉伯 国家博览会在宁夏银川开幕。来自75个国家和地区及全国各地的7600余位嘉宾、2200多家商协会和企业 代表参会,参展参会嘉宾约1.78万名。 从2013年首届开始,中阿博览会每两年举办一届,已经成为中阿双方深化务实合作、推动共建"一带一 路"高质量发展的重要平台。 首次将中国—阿拉伯国家银行联合体理事会会议作为博览会机制性活动,首次引入中国对外承包工程商 会举办境外园区和基础设施投资推介活动,首次举办"丝路电商"合作创新发展大会……本届博览会多 个"首次"引人注目。 高度关注新技术、新应用成为本届博览会新亮点。博览会新增数字经济、人工智能展区,中国电信、联 通、华为等头部企业全方位展示人工智能发展成果;设立"绿电应用专区",国家能源集团、国家电网等 世界500强企业,展示风、光、水、氢等能源最新发展成果及应用。 ...
【2025数博会】贵安新区:“算”出吸引力 聚“链”焕新机
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 00:30
在宁德时代贵州基地AI车间,"一秒造一颗电芯"的效率刷新行业认知;在贵安超算中心,每秒3亿亿次 的运算能力为全国影视渲染产业注入"数字血液";在贵安机器人创新产业园,全球首款人形机器人头部 模组破解行业痛点……行走在贵安新区,算力驱动的变革无处不在:企业加速触网转型,产业集群效应 凸显,公共服务提质增效,一幅"算力筑基-产业集聚-生态成形-赋能民生"的数字经济高质量发展大 美画卷正徐徐展开。 位于贵阳大数据科创城核心区的贵安中心 2021年2月,习近平总书记考察贵州时,殷切嘱托贵州"在实施数字经济战略上抢新机";2022年1月, 《国务院关于支持贵州在新时代西部大开发上闯新路的意见》印发,明确赋予贵州"数字经济发展创新 区"的战略定位。作为中国国家大数据(贵州)综合试验区与数字经济创新核心区,贵安新区锚定战略 目标,聚集算力、产业、赋能三大关键,通过"布局算力优势,打造中国领先智算高地""推进数据要素 价值化,加快建设全国数据高地""强化数智赋能,构建全场景应用高地"三大举措,推动算力深度融入 生产、分配、流通及社会服务管理全链条,让贵安新区的奔腾算力加快转化为推动数字经济高质量发展 的强劲动能。 算力筑底座 ...
A股公司密集公告!多家公司上半年净利润大增
Group 1: Government Policies and Economic Outlook - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council announced the establishment of a sustainable urban construction and operation financing system, emphasizing the integration of local government responsibilities and various funding channels [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics predicts that by the end of this year, the added value of the digital economy is expected to reach approximately 49 trillion yuan, accounting for about 35% of GDP [5] Group 2: Company Performance - Wancheng Group reported a significant increase in net profit by 50358.8% in the first half of the year, with revenue reaching 22.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 106.89% [4] - Jincai Hulian's net profit increased by 2063.57% to 32.8078 million yuan, despite a revenue decline of 22.30% to 468 million yuan [4] - XGIMI Technology achieved a net profit increase of 2062.34% to 88.6622 million yuan, with revenue of 1.626 billion yuan, a growth of 1.63% [5] - Guolian Minsheng reported a net profit increase of 1185.19% to 1.127 billion yuan, with revenue of 4.011 billion yuan, a growth of 269.40% [5] - Lingzhi Software's net profit increased by 1002.2% to 112 million yuan, despite a revenue decline of 3.04% to 516 million yuan [5] - Anker Innovation reported a net profit increase of 33.80% to 1.167 billion yuan, with revenue of 12.867 billion yuan, a growth of 33.36% [5] Group 3: Company Buybacks and Investments - Daqin Railway plans to repurchase shares worth 1 to 1.5 billion yuan for cancellation and reduction of registered capital [6] - Shengtun Mining intends to repurchase shares worth 500 million to 600 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans [7] - Spring Airlines plans to repurchase shares worth 300 million to 500 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans [7] - Zhongcai Technology announced investments of 1.751 billion yuan for a low-loss dielectric fiber cloth project and 1.806 billion yuan for another project [8]
早报事关城市高质量发展,中央重磅文件对外公布;寒武纪预计全年营收至多70亿
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 23:28
今日无新股上市,无新股申购。 宏观新闻 1、8月28日,《中共中央 国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》对外公布。意见提出,到2030年, 现代化人民城市建设取得重要进展,适应城市高质量发展的政策制度不断完善。到2035年,现代化人民 城市基本建成。 2、商务部发言人在昨日的新闻发布会上介绍,商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢率团于24日至 27日访问加拿大,与加方共同主持召开中加经贸联委会,之后李成钢一行将赴美国华盛顿会见美方相关 官员。 3、昨日,市场监管总局召开综合整治市场竞争秩序防范非理性竞争部署推进会,会议强调,要切实防 范非理性竞争,维护公平竞争市场秩序。强化执法办案,以重大典型案件查办彰显整治成效;注重打建 结合,多措并举引导企业优质优价竞争。 行业新闻 8、现货市场,国内电钴报价继续窄幅上行,欧洲市场电钴报价也小幅上探,当前海外原料端价格再次 上调,成本支撑力度持续走强,电钴现货市场多数主流厂商仍保持暂停对外报价策略,海外夏休结束后 实际成交订单有所增多,市场整体询盘氛围较为活跃。 公司新闻 1、商务部公布对原产于美国、欧盟、韩国、日本和泰国的进口苯酚所适用反倾销措施的期终复审裁 定。国务院 ...
多家机构集体提高英伟达目标价 顺丰控股中期收入和净利均增超9%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 23:09
热点聚焦 1.国家数据局局长刘烈宏8月28日在2025中国国际大数据产业博览会开幕式上表示,国家数据局推动出台公共数据资源开发利用、数字经济高质量发展、城 市全域数字化转型等相关政策近30项,支持10个地方积极探索数据要素综合试验区建设,20多个地方也陆续出台数据条例。今年,还将推出数据产权、数据 创新型企业、数字产业集群等十几项产业政策。 2.小米正式发布小米澎湃OS 3。据了解,小米澎湃OS 3将于2025年8月29日为首批Beta机型开启陆续推送,覆盖Xiaomi15系列、Xiaomi Pad 7S Pro 12.5、 Xiaomi Pad 7 Pro、REDMI K80 Pro、REDMI K80 至尊版,并将陆续为更多机型开启推送。 3.根据美国商务部的数据,二季度GDP按年率计算增长3.3%,高于此前公布的初值3.0%以及市场预期的3.1%。 4.英伟达公布第二季度业绩报告后,多家投行更新其对这家人工智能巨头的最新评级及目标价格。美银将英伟达目标价从220美元上调至235美元;摩根士丹 利将英伟达目标价从206美元上调至210美元;花旗银行将英伟达目标价从190美元上调至210美元;摩根大通将英伟 ...
积极回应数据权属认定等问题
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-08-28 22:38
Group 1 - The Supreme People's Court released its 47th batch of guiding cases, focusing on judicial protection of data rights, addressing issues such as data ownership, utilization of data products, personal information protection, and delivery of online platform accounts [1] - The number of data-related cases in courts has significantly increased, with new types of cases and high difficulty in adjudication, leading to heightened public interest in the outcomes [1] - The guiding cases aim to summarize and refine mature adjudication rules to promote more unified standards in data-related case judgments [1] Group 2 - In a case involving a network information technology company and an information technology company regarding unfair competition, the court ruled that transferring data between different online platforms using associated accounts is a lawful and legitimate action, enhancing the autonomy of data providers in the digital economy [1] - In a case concerning a steel company and an e-commerce company regarding liability for infringement, the court clarified that data processors can legally collect and process enterprise data without causing harm to the enterprise's rights, thus encouraging the lawful and effective use of data [2]
前7月数据速递
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-08-28 22:38
Group 1: Urban Renewal and Construction - In the first seven months of this year, 19,800 old urban residential communities have started renovation across the country, with six provinces showing an opening rate exceeding 90% [1] - The national plan for this year aims to initiate the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential communities, with a focus on improving property service quality and addressing issues such as elevator installation, parking, and charging facilities [1] Group 2: Industrial Production Growth - The production of industrial robots reached 447,000 units in the first seven months, marking a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [2] - The cumulative production of metal cutting machine tools was 480,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.9% [2] - The solar cell production totaled 47,396 million kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [2] Group 3: Telecommunications Sector Performance - The telecommunications business revenue reached 1,043.1 billion yuan in the first seven months, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [3] - The total telecommunications business volume, adjusted for last year's prices, increased by 8.9% year-on-year [3] - By the end of July, the number of fixed internet broadband access users reached 686 million, with one-third being gigabit broadband users, and 5G mobile phone users totaled 1.137 billion [3]
算力扎根产业才能变成生产力
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-28 22:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that China's computing power infrastructure has significantly improved, marking a new stage of high-quality and large-scale development in the computing power industry, which is seen as a core productivity in the digital economy era [2][3] - Computing power is defined as a new type of productivity that integrates information computing power, network carrying capacity, and data storage capacity, serving society through computing power infrastructure [2][3] - China ranks second globally in total computing power scale, with a gradually improving upstream and downstream industrial chain, and a notable increase in the proportion of intelligent computing power, indicating enhanced computing quality [3][4] Group 2 - The integration of computing power with the real economy is crucial for transforming computing power into productivity, as it cannot generate value without being connected to specific industrial scenarios [3][4] - Industry demand guides the direction of computing power development, with practical applications serving as a testing ground for its value and providing clear market directions and landing scenarios [4][5] - The upgrade of computing power not only promotes industrial upgrades but also breaks down industry boundaries, leading to the emergence of new industries such as smart agriculture and industrial internet [4][5] Group 3 - China's computing power industry is well-positioned to support the transformation of the real economy, leveraging its large market and diverse scenarios to drive continuous optimization and iteration of computing power technology [5]
从电力消费“图谱”看产业结构之变
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-28 22:11
Core Viewpoint - In July, China's total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase and setting a global record for monthly electricity consumption, driven primarily by high temperatures and increased residential electricity usage [1] Group 1: Electricity Consumption Trends - The average temperature in July was the highest since 1961, leading to an 18% year-on-year increase in residential electricity consumption, with six provinces experiencing over 30% growth [1] - The total electricity consumption during the first seven months of the year shows a significant increase in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors, with a 4.6% year-on-year growth, surpassing the average manufacturing growth rate by 2.3 percentage points [2] Group 2: Structural Changes in Energy Consumption - The optimization of industrial structure is reflected in the electricity consumption patterns, with traditional high-energy-consuming industries showing stable growth while high-tech manufacturing leads the increase [2] - The rise in electricity consumption from digital economy infrastructures, such as data centers and 5G bases, indicates a more diverse and resilient economic structure [2] Group 3: Green Energy and Innovation - Under the "dual carbon" goals, the proportion of non-fossil energy generation is steadily increasing, with wind and solar power growth exceeding the overall electricity consumption increase [3] - The electric vehicle sector is projected to see a 34.3% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in 2024, highlighting the shift towards green low-carbon industries [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The electricity consumption in China is expected to continue growing, driven by economic recovery and industrial upgrades, with improvements in growth structure and quality [4]