1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: The Middle - East geopolitical situation is still evolving, and the strong trend of raw materials supports the upward movement of PTA prices. However, the supply - demand side of PTA itself lacks support. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis has risen and then fallen. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Israel - Iran situation on oil prices and the fluctuation of polyester load [5]. - **MEG**: If the Strait of Hormuz maintains normal passage, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will turn balanced in July, and the spot liquidity is gradually being released. The fundamental support for ethylene glycol will gradually weaken under the expectation of domestic production recovery and weak demand. In the short term, the market price is still mainly affected by external and cost factors. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the Israel - Iran situation and the release of ethane vessels [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders, and some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The June goods were traded at 09 + 260 - 290, with the price negotiation range around 5220 - 5330. The goods in early July were traded at 09 + 260 - 270. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 269 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5175, the basis of the 09 contract is 302, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.15 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is increasing, showing a bullish signal [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined slightly at a high level, and the market negotiation was average. At night, ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. The spot negotiation next week was at a premium of 82 - 83 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. The intraday market declined slightly, and the trading was light. The low - level spot was traded at around 4560 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a high level. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was around 534 - 538 US dollars/ton, and the near - ocean shipments in July were traded at 538 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 1000 tons [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4547, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 53.10 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 tons, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary**: - **Positive Factors**: The Middle - East geopolitical situation is still evolving, and the strong trend of raw materials supports the upward movement of PTA prices [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The previously shut - down PTA plants are gradually restarting, and new plants are being put into production, leading to a weakening supply - demand pattern. From the demand side, the end of the rush - to - export period and the off - season of domestic demand mean a definite weakening trend in terminal demand [9]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and after the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, consumption, and port inventory [12].

Report Core View - On June 19 (Thursday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday. The Brent August crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.15 per barrel to $78.85 per barrel, a gain of 2.80% [2] - A source said that US President Trump told his senior aides that he had approved an attack plan on Iran but would not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. The White House said Trump would decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that for the week ending June 13, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, compared with a market expectation of a 1.8 million - barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories were 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January [4] - In the short - term, the market will still trade on Middle East geopolitical tensions, and oil prices will hover at high levels. Fundamentally, the peak summer driving season is approaching, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries have recovered from maintenance, the China - US economic and trade negotiations in London have made positive progress, the macro - environment is currently loose, OPEC+ has not effectively increased production, and US shale oil production has declined for seven consecutive weeks. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply trend and demand being restricted by the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices will decline from high levels [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Iran, leading to a surge in various futures contracts, particularly SC crude oil, which hit the limit up [1] Group 2 - Institutional analysis indicates that the short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to be strong amid the heightened geopolitical situation [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising tensions in the Middle East and its impact on gold prices, indicating a trend of upward volatility in the gold market [1] - It raises the question of whether the recent pullback in gold prices represents a buying opportunity or a risk for investors [1] - The analysis suggests that the current market conditions warrant close monitoring, particularly during the European trading session where significant price movements occurred [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices surged due to improved risk appetite from US-China trade talks and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - The US inflation rate remained relatively stable, with May CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, which helped stabilize market sentiment and supported oil prices [3] - A decrease in US crude oil inventories, reported at 432.415 million barrels, down by 3.64 million barrels, contributed positively to the oil market as summer demand approaches [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the stalled US-Iran negotiations and potential military conflicts, continues to support the oil market [2] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which are expected to provide a favorable outlook for oil prices [1][4] - Despite short-term potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions, long-term concerns about economic and energy demand may pressure oil prices [6]