Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and go short on PXN when it rallies. Due to the restart of a 210,000 - tonne unit and the shutdown of a 400,000 - tonne unit, supply decreases marginally. The 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduces its load, leading to a marginal decline in demand. With a significant strengthening of the cost side, short PXN on rallies [7]. - PTA: Focus on going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis remains weak at - 5 yuan/ton, and basis reverse arbitrage operations are still maintained. As the monthly spread approaches parity and considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August, pay attention to the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage. Also, focus on the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuations [7][8]. - MEG: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. With continuous decline in port inventories and some buying in the basis in late August, but considering the delivery pressure on the 09 contract, the monthly spread is always weak, making the ethylene glycol trend weak. Also, pay attention to the short ethylene glycol and long L arbitrage. In terms of supply, it is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide units are expected to switch to ethylene glycol production in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The strengthening of crude oil prices is the key driving factor, influenced by the optimistic sentiment towards China - US trade negotiations and the expectation of a decrease in US crude oil inventories. A 210,000 - tonne PX production line of Idemitsu Kosan restarted on July 28, and a 400,000 - tonne unit shut down. On July 29, there were bids and offers for September and October deliveries in the Asian PX market, but no transactions were concluded [2][5]. - PTA: A 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [5]. - MEG: From July 28 to August 3, the planned arrival volume at major ports is about 1.56 million tons. Pay attention to the impact of weather factors on vessel entry efficiency during the week [6]. - Polyester: A 500,000 - tonne polyester device in Wuxi plans to restart tomorrow, and a 300,000 - tonne device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since July 28 for about 15 - 20 days. A 200,000 - tonne device in Shaoxing started maintenance on July 28 for about a month. A 30,000 - tonne low - melting - point staple fiber device in Xiamen has been shut down for maintenance today for a month. On July 29, the sales of direct - spun staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still sluggish, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% [6][7]. Price and Spread Data | Variety | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Monthly Spread Yesterday's Closing Price | Monthly Spread Change | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday's Price | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6942 | 6890 | 0.75% | 108 | 18 | 857.33 | 6 | 292.5 | 12.96 | | PTA | 4838 | 26 | 0.54% | 6 | 4 | 4830 | - 15 | 192.67 | - 5.64 | | MEG | 4467 | 31 | 0.70% | - 25 | 3 | 4518 | 19 | - | - | | PF | 6500 | 18 | 0.28% | - 32 | - 2 | - | - | 84.81 | - 30.82 | | SC | 515 | 9.1 | 1.80% | 6.6 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an EIA crude oil weekly data report released on July 10, 2025, by Green大华 Futures Co., Ltd [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This year, US crude oil daily production is expected to increase by 160,000 barrels to 1.337 million barrels, and production will remain flat in 2026. This forecast is about 50,000 barrels per day lower than the agency's June estimate [1] - Despite the recovery and stabilization of oil prices after falling to multi - year lows due to global demand concerns, the number of active drilling platforms in the US continues to decline and is currently at a near - four - year low [1] - US spot crude oil grades show mixed trends due to increased inventories but expected rising refinery demand [1] Group 4: Data Summary Inventory Data - As of the week ending July 4, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 829.024 million barrels, an increase of 7.31 million barrels from the previous week; US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.021 million barrels, an increase of 7.07 million barrels; US gasoline inventory was 229.468 million barrels, a decrease of 2.66 million barrels; distillate inventory was 102.797 million barrels, a decrease of 830,000 barrels [1] - Comparing the week of July 4, 2025, with the week of June 27, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.69% (7,070 thousand barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 2.24% (464 thousand barrels), US gasoline inventory decreased by 1.15% (- 2,658 thousand barrels), US distillate inventory decreased by 0.80% (- 825 thousand barrels), US total oil product inventory increased by 0.52% (6,411 thousand barrels), US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.06% (238 thousand barrels) [2] Production, Import, and Export Data - Comparing the week of July 4, 2025, with the week of June 27, 2025, US crude oil production decreased by 0.36% (- 48 thousand barrels per day), US crude oil imports decreased by 13.09% (- 906 thousand barrels per day), and US crude oil exports increased by 19.61% (452 thousand barrels per day) [2] Refinery Data - The US refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.21% (- 0.2 percentage points) from 94.9% to 94.7% from the week of June 27 to the week of July 4, 2025 [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is stable around $3354 per ounce, with attention focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence gold prices significantly [2] - Economists predict an increase of 110,000 in the U.S. non-farm payroll for June, down from 139,000 in May, with an expected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.2% [2] - A lower-than-expected non-farm payroll figure could increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially benefiting gold prices, while a higher figure may strengthen the dollar and suppress gold [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold remains strong, with recent price movements showing a continuation of an upward trend, although short-term fluctuations are expected [3][5] - Key support and resistance levels are identified, with a focus on the $3350 level as a critical point for trading decisions [3][5] - The recommendation for trading is to consider short positions on rebounds and to monitor key levels of $3365-$3375 for resistance and $3330-$3320 for support [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have slightly retreated, with Brent crude down 0.89% to $68.47 per barrel and WTI down 0.85% to $66.81 per barrel, following a previous increase due to geopolitical tensions [6] - U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease, indicating weak demand [6] - The oil market is expected to balance between weak demand and geopolitical risks, with the potential for price support if U.S. employment data remains poor [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains upward, although short-term indicators suggest a potential for high-level fluctuations [7] - Key resistance levels are identified at $69.5-$70.0 and support levels at $65.5-$65.0, with a recommendation to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of risk management and strategic trading to enhance investment returns [7]

Group 1 - International oil prices surged due to improved risk appetite from US-China trade talks and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - The US inflation rate remained relatively stable, with May CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, which helped stabilize market sentiment and supported oil prices [3] - A decrease in US crude oil inventories, reported at 432.415 million barrels, down by 3.64 million barrels, contributed positively to the oil market as summer demand approaches [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the stalled US-Iran negotiations and potential military conflicts, continues to support the oil market [2] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which are expected to provide a favorable outlook for oil prices [1][4] - Despite short-term potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions, long-term concerns about economic and energy demand may pressure oil prices [6]