Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Oil Price Overview - As of September 5, 2025, international oil prices have declined, with Brent crude settling at $65.50 per barrel (-2.93%) and WTI at $61.87 per barrel (-3.34%) [2][4] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical risks, including Houthi attacks on Red Sea tankers, and market reactions to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which has agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October [2][3] U.S. Oil Supply and Demand - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.423 million barrels per day as of August 29, 2025, down by 16,000 barrels per day [3] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased to 414, while the number of hydraulic fracturing fleets rose to 164 [3] - U.S. refinery crude processing decreased to 16.869 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.30%, down by 0.3 percentage points [3] U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory increased to 825 million barrels, up by 2.924 million barrels (+0.36%) as of August 29, 2025 [4] - Strategic oil reserves rose to 405 million barrels (+0.13%), while commercial crude oil stocks increased to 421 million barrels (+0.58%) [4] - Gasoline and diesel inventories showed mixed trends, with gasoline down by 379,500 barrels (-1.71%) and diesel up by 168,100 barrels (+1.47%) [4] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs decreased to 372, with reductions in Africa, the Middle East, and other regions [3] - The number of global floating drilling rigs increased to 133, with notable increases in Europe, South America, and other regions [3] Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and go short on PXN when it rallies. Due to the restart of a 210,000 - tonne unit and the shutdown of a 400,000 - tonne unit, supply decreases marginally. The 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduces its load, leading to a marginal decline in demand. With a significant strengthening of the cost side, short PXN on rallies [7]. - PTA: Focus on going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis remains weak at - 5 yuan/ton, and basis reverse arbitrage operations are still maintained. As the monthly spread approaches parity and considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August, pay attention to the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage. Also, focus on the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuations [7][8]. - MEG: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. With continuous decline in port inventories and some buying in the basis in late August, but considering the delivery pressure on the 09 contract, the monthly spread is always weak, making the ethylene glycol trend weak. Also, pay attention to the short ethylene glycol and long L arbitrage. In terms of supply, it is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide units are expected to switch to ethylene glycol production in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The strengthening of crude oil prices is the key driving factor, influenced by the optimistic sentiment towards China - US trade negotiations and the expectation of a decrease in US crude oil inventories. A 210,000 - tonne PX production line of Idemitsu Kosan restarted on July 28, and a 400,000 - tonne unit shut down. On July 29, there were bids and offers for September and October deliveries in the Asian PX market, but no transactions were concluded [2][5]. - PTA: A 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [5]. - MEG: From July 28 to August 3, the planned arrival volume at major ports is about 1.56 million tons. Pay attention to the impact of weather factors on vessel entry efficiency during the week [6]. - Polyester: A 500,000 - tonne polyester device in Wuxi plans to restart tomorrow, and a 300,000 - tonne device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since July 28 for about 15 - 20 days. A 200,000 - tonne device in Shaoxing started maintenance on July 28 for about a month. A 30,000 - tonne low - melting - point staple fiber device in Xiamen has been shut down for maintenance today for a month. On July 29, the sales of direct - spun staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still sluggish, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% [6][7]. Price and Spread Data | Variety | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Monthly Spread Yesterday's Closing Price | Monthly Spread Change | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday's Price | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6942 | 6890 | 0.75% | 108 | 18 | 857.33 | 6 | 292.5 | 12.96 | | PTA | 4838 | 26 | 0.54% | 6 | 4 | 4830 | - 15 | 192.67 | - 5.64 | | MEG | 4467 | 31 | 0.70% | - 25 | 3 | 4518 | 19 | - | - | | PF | 6500 | 18 | 0.28% | - 32 | - 2 | - | - | 84.81 | - 30.82 | | SC | 515 | 9.1 | 1.80% | 6.6 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an EIA crude oil weekly data report released on July 10, 2025, by Green大华 Futures Co., Ltd [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This year, US crude oil daily production is expected to increase by 160,000 barrels to 1.337 million barrels, and production will remain flat in 2026. This forecast is about 50,000 barrels per day lower than the agency's June estimate [1] - Despite the recovery and stabilization of oil prices after falling to multi - year lows due to global demand concerns, the number of active drilling platforms in the US continues to decline and is currently at a near - four - year low [1] - US spot crude oil grades show mixed trends due to increased inventories but expected rising refinery demand [1] Group 4: Data Summary Inventory Data - As of the week ending July 4, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 829.024 million barrels, an increase of 7.31 million barrels from the previous week; US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.021 million barrels, an increase of 7.07 million barrels; US gasoline inventory was 229.468 million barrels, a decrease of 2.66 million barrels; distillate inventory was 102.797 million barrels, a decrease of 830,000 barrels [1] - Comparing the week of July 4, 2025, with the week of June 27, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.69% (7,070 thousand barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 2.24% (464 thousand barrels), US gasoline inventory decreased by 1.15% (- 2,658 thousand barrels), US distillate inventory decreased by 0.80% (- 825 thousand barrels), US total oil product inventory increased by 0.52% (6,411 thousand barrels), US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.06% (238 thousand barrels) [2] Production, Import, and Export Data - Comparing the week of July 4, 2025, with the week of June 27, 2025, US crude oil production decreased by 0.36% (- 48 thousand barrels per day), US crude oil imports decreased by 13.09% (- 906 thousand barrels per day), and US crude oil exports increased by 19.61% (452 thousand barrels per day) [2] Refinery Data - The US refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.21% (- 0.2 percentage points) from 94.9% to 94.7% from the week of June 27 to the week of July 4, 2025 [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is stable around $3354 per ounce, with attention focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence gold prices significantly [2] - Economists predict an increase of 110,000 in the U.S. non-farm payroll for June, down from 139,000 in May, with an expected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.2% [2] - A lower-than-expected non-farm payroll figure could increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially benefiting gold prices, while a higher figure may strengthen the dollar and suppress gold [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold remains strong, with recent price movements showing a continuation of an upward trend, although short-term fluctuations are expected [3][5] - Key support and resistance levels are identified, with a focus on the $3350 level as a critical point for trading decisions [3][5] - The recommendation for trading is to consider short positions on rebounds and to monitor key levels of $3365-$3375 for resistance and $3330-$3320 for support [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have slightly retreated, with Brent crude down 0.89% to $68.47 per barrel and WTI down 0.85% to $66.81 per barrel, following a previous increase due to geopolitical tensions [6] - U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease, indicating weak demand [6] - The oil market is expected to balance between weak demand and geopolitical risks, with the potential for price support if U.S. employment data remains poor [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains upward, although short-term indicators suggest a potential for high-level fluctuations [7] - Key resistance levels are identified at $69.5-$70.0 and support levels at $65.5-$65.0, with a recommendation to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of risk management and strategic trading to enhance investment returns [7]

Group 1 - International oil prices surged due to improved risk appetite from US-China trade talks and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - The US inflation rate remained relatively stable, with May CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, which helped stabilize market sentiment and supported oil prices [3] - A decrease in US crude oil inventories, reported at 432.415 million barrels, down by 3.64 million barrels, contributed positively to the oil market as summer demand approaches [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the stalled US-Iran negotiations and potential military conflicts, continues to support the oil market [2] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which are expected to provide a favorable outlook for oil prices [1][4] - Despite short-term potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions, long-term concerns about economic and energy demand may pressure oil prices [6]