Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, stated that the full impact of tariffs on prices has not yet been observed [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates that there is an ongoing assessment of how tariffs are influencing pricing in the economy [1] - The comments suggest that potential inflationary pressures from tariffs may still be forthcoming as the effects are not fully realized [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's discount rate meeting minutes indicate that while most board members believe the overall economic conditions are stable, there are concerns regarding the potential impacts of changing trade and other policies on economic activity, prices, and employment [1] Economic Conditions - A majority of board members view the recent economic situation as generally stable [1] - Concerns are raised about the effects of evolving trade policies on the economy [1] Policy Implications - The board expresses worries about how other policy changes may influence economic activity [1] - There is a focus on the potential implications for prices and employment due to these policy shifts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish; Lead: Sideways [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2025, overseas zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year, while lead concentrate production decreased. The zinc smelting industry is expected to see increased supply in Q2, but the lead market has uncertainties due to production disruptions. In June, lead and zinc prices will be demand - driven. For zinc, short - term oversupply is expected, and for lead, the market is in a bearish pattern [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - Recently, overseas leading mining companies announced their Q1 2025 production. Some adjusted their 2025 production guidance. The report statistics cover 30 overseas leading mining companies, with the sample proportion of zinc concentrate rising from 60% to about 65% and that of lead concentrate from 40% to 49% [11]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate and Lead Concentrate Production - **Zinc Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample zinc concentrate production was 1.312 million metric tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase and a 4% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The increase was due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, a low base in the previous year, and fewer disruptions. The decrease was due to seasonal factors and end - of - year production rushes [12]. - **Lead Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample lead concentrate production was 300,000 metric tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease and a 9.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The decline was mainly due to lower ore grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [13]. 3.3 Production Changes and Factors of Individual Mining Companies - **Zinc Concentrate**: The top five companies with year - on - year production increases were Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Boliden, Group Mexico, and Sibanye - Stillwater. The top five with decreases were Teck, NEXA, Peñoles, MMG, and South32. The increase was mainly due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, etc. The decrease was due to lower grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [27][29]. - **Lead Concentrate**: Companies including Volcan, Glencore, Vedanta, Pan American Silver, and Silvercrop contributed to the year - on - year increase, while South32, Newmont, Aurelia Metals, NEXA, and MMG contributed to the decrease [27]. 3.4 Zinc Mine Costs - The 90% cash cost quantile of zinc mines in 2025 is $1,993/ton, a 9.3% year - on - year decrease. Although the LME zinc price has declined, the mining end still has sufficient profits. Different companies' cost changes vary due to factors such as mining costs, processing fees, and by - product contributions [47]. 3.5 Production Guidance - Among 13 leading mining companies, only South32 slightly lowered its annual production guidance in Q1. The total 2025 production is expected to be between 2.839 and 3.1 million metric tons, a 4.7% year - on - year increase. Some projects are expected to increase production, while others may continue to face production declines [48][50]. 3.6 TC Views and Investment Recommendations - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: There may be a slight upward space in Q2 2025, but in the second half of the year, upward movement may be restricted or even decline slightly due to factors such as domestic seasonal production increases, bearish zinc price expectations, and potential overseas production shortfalls. - **Lead Concentrate TC**: Overseas production is expected to increase slightly in Q2 2025, but domestic imports may be limited, and there is a downward expectation for the medium - term TC. - **Investment Strategy**: For zinc, in June, it is recommended to short on rallies on a medium - term basis and maintain a long - short arbitrage strategy between domestic and overseas markets. For lead, it is recommended to look for medium - term long opportunities after demand reaches a low point [52][53].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The company's total gold production in Q1 2025 was 720,000 ounces (22.39 tons), a decrease of 4.0% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 21.8% year-on-year [1][2] - Total gold sales for Q1 2025 were 737,000 ounces (22.92 tons), reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% and a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [1][2] - The average gold price achieved in Q1 2025 was $2,874 per ounce (674.53 yuan per gram), up 8.3% quarter-on-quarter and 39.3% year-on-year [1][2] Production and Operational Performance - The unit total cash cost for Q1 2025 was $1,223 per ounce (287.04 yuan per gram), an increase of 6.9% quarter-on-quarter and 3.6% year-on-year [2] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for Q1 2025 was $1,640 per ounce (384.91 yuan per gram), a decrease of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and an increase of 1.2% year-on-year [2] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 production guidance, expecting total gold production to be between 2.9 million ounces and 3.225 million ounces [6] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $1.927 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.3% and a year-on-year increase of 69.3% [3][5] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $839 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.7% and a year-on-year increase of 177.8% [3][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was $443 million, a decrease of 5.7% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 663.8% year-on-year [3][5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $1.120 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.7% and a year-on-year increase of 158.1% [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply of crude oil has tightened and oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in asphalt prices. Shandong spot prices have slightly increased, and the futures market has strengthened slightly. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline, while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall inventory remaining relatively stable. The market is generally showing marginal improvement. [1] - The market in the north is tight, while in the east and south, it is relatively loose. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in production scheduled for April. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak purchasing in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term. Inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. [1] - It is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant - end contracts such as the 09 contract. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Review - Shandong spot prices have remained stable, with a market reference price of 3,510 - 3,700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market has shown fluctuations, and crack spread profits are at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong have slightly increased. The daily production of asphalt is 6.3 (+0) million tons. [1] Price and Spread Data - The report presents price data for various asphalt - related items from March 27 to April 2, 2025, including prices of Shandong spot, asphalt futures, Korea's CIF price in East China, and Shandong coker feedstock, as well as data on spreads and basis. [1] - It also shows multiple seasonal charts of asphalt, such as basis seasonality for different contracts (06, 09, 12), 9 - 12 month spreads, refinery comprehensive costs for a certain type of asphalt, the ratio of Singapore asphalt to fuel oil, import profits in East China, and comparisons between coker feedstock, petroleum coke, and asphalt prices, as well as data on asphalt's operating rate, social inventory rate, and warehouse receipt seasonality. [1][2]