Core Insights - France's public debt is projected to reach €3,345.8 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 114% of the GDP, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [1] - The rise in public debt is primarily attributed to increased borrowing by the central government and a widening deficit in the social security fund [1] - Compared to the end of 2024, public debt has increased by €40.5 billion [1]

Core Insights - The Swiss National Bank's financial stability report highlights several risk factors that could amplify negative impacts, including public debt, global residential real estate valuations, global corporate bonds, and the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1 - Risk factors identified include public debt, which may pose significant challenges to financial stability [1] - Global residential real estate valuations are noted as a potential source of risk, indicating concerns over housing market sustainability [1] - The report emphasizes the risks associated with global corporate bonds, suggesting vulnerabilities in corporate debt markets [1] - The U.S. stock market is also flagged as a risk factor, reflecting potential volatility and its implications for global financial stability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly last week and remains at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upward space is limited. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: Moody's decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The international community warns that global governments must curb the rise of public debt due to the unsustainable fiscal path caused by rising interest rates [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, the interest rate is in a low range, and the upward space is limited in the medium and long term. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures showed a weak downward trend. The TS2509 contract rose 0.03%, the TF2509 contract rose 0.14%, the T2509 contract rose 0.18%, and the TL2509 contract rose 0.26% [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [10] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage of Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of long-term Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [13] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [14] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 20th, and medium and long-term yields have risen [19]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the four major stock indices in the long - term, suggesting investors to look past short - term fluctuations. The specific ratings for stock index futures are: IH (long), IF (long), IM (slightly long), IC (slightly long) [1][2] Core View - The decline in deposit rates below 1% continues to be positive for the market. The reduction of deposit rates by the six major banks is expected to drive household savings and insurance funds into the stock market. The market style is expected to shift towards the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The global re - allocation of financial assets will prompt overseas institutional funds to pour into the A - share market [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets strengthened. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.17 trillion yuan, with little change. The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2728 points, up 11 points or 0.43%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3916 points, up 18 points or 0.47%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5757 points, up 10 points or 0.18%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6132 points, down 13 points or - 0.23%. Among industry and theme ETFs, gold stock ETFs, non - ferrous 50 ETFs, coal ETFs, battery ETFs, and new energy vehicle ETFs led the gains, while semiconductor leading ETFs, machine tool ETFs, and chip ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, precious metals, batteries, commercial vehicles, coal mining, and industrial metals indices led the gains, while PEEK materials, general equipment, aquatic products, industrial mother machines, and industrial software indices led the losses. The futures settlement funds of the CSI 1000, CSI 300, and Shanghai 50 indices had net outflows of 900 million, 500 million, and 100 million yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The central bank will support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, private small and micro - enterprises, and foreign trade stability, and improve the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy [1] - On May 20, China and ASEAN announced the full completion of the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [1] - Due to the rush - out effect in the sprint window period, shipping companies have raised prices. The quotation for 40 - foot containers (FEU) on the Shanghai - US West Line in mid - June has reached $9100, more than three times the average price of about $2250 at the beginning of May [1] - Dalio said that inappropriate interest - rate cuts would have a negative impact on the bond market, leading to higher long - term interest rates, a weaker US dollar, and a rising gold price [1] - The annual inflation rate in the UK in April reached 3.5%, higher than analysts' expectations [1] - The Japanese bond market had no bids for the second consecutive day, and the yields of 30 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds reached record highs, with the 20 - year government bond yield reaching 2.57%, the highest since October 2000 [1] - The St. Louis Fed President pointed out that the Fed needs to prevent the rise of inflation expectations [1] - COT data shows that there has been large - scale short - selling in the US stock market, reaching $11.1 billion, with hedge funds as the main short - sellers. The cumulative short - selling amount of hedge funds in the last three COT reports reached $25 billion, the largest in at least a decade [2] - The open - interest data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) confirms that a large number of positions are betting that the 10 - year Treasury yield will rise to 5% in the coming weeks [2] - Institutions predict that the tax - cut bill will increase public debt by at least $3.3 trillion by the end of 2034, raising the debt - to - GDP ratio from the current 100% to a record 125% [2] - Multiple US officials said that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, which may trigger a wider regional conflict in the Middle East [2] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the value - related indices of the two markets continued to strengthen, and the reduction of deposit rates was still positive for the market. The six major banks lowered RMB deposit rates. The three - month, six - month, one - year, and two - year fixed - deposit rates were all cut by 15 basis points to 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively; the three - year and five - year rates were cut by 25 basis points to 1.25% and 1.3% respectively. The one - year deposit rate falling below 1% is expected to drive household savings and insurance funds into the stock market, and free - cash - flow ETFs strengthened collectively [1][2] Future Outlook - The value - related indices of the two markets continued to strengthen on Wednesday, and the reduction of deposit rates continued to be positive for the market. In 2024, A - share listed companies paid a total of 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends and repurchased shares worth 147.6 billion yuan, both hitting record highs, and the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index was close to 3.6%. The one - year deposit rate cut to 0.95% is expected to accelerate the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. Free - cash - flow ETFs and dividend - based ETFs are expected to benefit the most. The global re - allocation of financial assets will drive overseas institutional funds to pour into the A - share market. The market is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading: With the one - year deposit rate falling below 1%, household savings and insurance funds are expected to flow into the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored [2] - For stock index option trading: The market is in a consolidation phase to repair technical indicators. It is recommended to suspend far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [2]

智通财经APP获悉，花旗策略师建议押注较长期美债表现不佳，理由是他们所说的"昂贵"美国财政账单 的风险。以Dirk Willer为首的策略师建议投资者通过六个月远期合约为5年期和30年期美国国债利差扩 大做准备，他们将利率目标是从目前的40个基点上调至90个基点。 这些策略师在5月8日的一份报告中写道："我们正从关税转向财政叙事，因为特朗普总统一直专注于把 减税写在账上。"他们写道，风险在于"美国国债收益率曲线将再次大幅变陡"。 本周末，共和党议员们即将就他们提出的大规模税改法案进行艰难的谈判。各主要委员会希望下星期早 些时候能推进这项法案。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特正在推动共和党领导的国会在7月4日前完成该法 案。 策略师们写道："考虑到希望不让低收入美国人为贸易战付出代价，我们认为，在减税方面会有相对激 进的企图。这可能在财政上令人担忧，因为预算赤字不仅会很大，而且还可能依赖于激进的经济增长预 测、激进的成本削减估计和激进的关税收入。" 花旗预计，到2034年，美国平均预算赤字将达到国内生产总值(GDP)的6%至7%，公共债务占GDP的比 例将增加20%至118%。这一计算是基于平均经济名义增长率3.8% ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports an improving trend in Spain's public debt and public deficit, projecting that by 2030, public debt will decrease to 93% of GDP and public deficit will drop to around 2% of GDP [1] - The IMF has raised its economic growth forecast for Spain to 2.5% for 2025 [1]