Workflow
养殖产业链
icon
Search documents
【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260122
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-22 09:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to continue its oscillatory trend, with prices remaining high and stable despite regulatory changes such as grain depots stopping purchases and increased auctions [1]. - The corn market has both support and pressure, with prices remaining high and oscillating. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg price has soared, indicating that the egg - laying chicken farming industry is out of the trough and entering a profit - repair stage. There is no obvious driving force currently, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The pig supply is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional restructuring. The reduction of sow inventory lays the foundation for medium - and long - term supply - demand balance, and the market will face short - term structural pressure. The supply pattern in 2026 is expected to gradually re - balance [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Northeast low - protein soybean spot prices have declined, while high - protein soybeans are in short supply with a high - quality, high - price feature. Some areas with 39% protein content commodity beans are priced around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - The 33,058 - ton domestic soybean two - way bidding by Sinograin on Wednesday was fully transacted. The core change in the soybean market is on the regulatory side, with many grain depots stopping purchases and increased auction volume, but prices remain high and stable [1]. Corn - Policy - end imported corn and auctioned corn are continuously supplied to the market, which boosts market sentiment although there is a premium in transactions. The grassroots have a strong price - holding sentiment, and the middle and lower reaches have rigid restocking needs, supporting the strong operation of corn. However, downstream enterprises' low acceptance of high - priced corn may limit the price increase [1]. - The market has both support and pressure, and prices remain high and oscillating. The focus is on the change of grassroots selling mentality and policy supply intensity. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. Egg - The recent sharp rise in egg prices indicates that the egg - laying chicken farming industry is out of the trough and entering a profit - repair stage, which eases farmers' financial pressure and restores market confidence [2]. - After the price increase, the decision on culling old chickens is hesitant, and the supply is balanced by the decrease in new chickens and the increase in extended - laying hens. There is a small decline after the price peak, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to the marginal improvement in inventory compared to the second half of last year [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it is currently 101.6% of the normal inventory. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million [2]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. - The pig supply is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional restructuring. The reduction of sow inventory lays the foundation for medium - and long - term supply - demand balance, and the market will face short - term structural pressure. The supply pattern in 2026 is expected to gradually re - balance [2].
【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260121
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 11:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The domestic soybean market shows a mixed and overall stable pattern, with the market expected to continue its oscillatory trend [1]. - The corn market will maintain a high - level and strong operation in the short term, and it is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [2]. - The egg price has soared, and the egg - laying chicken farming industry is in a profit - repair stage. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to a marginal improvement in inventory [2]. - The pig supply is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional restructuring. The supply pattern is expected to gradually re - balance in 2026 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market is mixed with overall stability. The producing area prices fluctuate slightly, and the selling area prices decline slightly. The trading volume of domestic soybeans today is 66,116 tons, indicating some market demand support [1]. Corn - The reduction and suspension of imported corn's directional invitation - bidding supply and the increase in the scale of regular rotation corn auction in major producing areas have increased the uncertainty of policy supply. The corn market will maintain a high - level and strong operation in the short term, with the pre - Spring Festival stocking rhythm as the core driving factor. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [2]. Egg - The egg price has soared, and the egg - laying chicken farming industry is moving out of the trough and entering a profit - repair stage. The current market is in a state of balance between new chicken addition and old chicken delay in culling, with a slight decline after the price increase. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to a marginal improvement in inventory [2]. Pig - In 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 2.9% to 39.61 million heads, the national pig slaughter increased by 2.4% to 719.73 million heads, and the year - end inventory increased by 0.5% to 429.67 million heads. The pig supply is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional restructuring, and the supply pattern is expected to gradually re - balance in 2026 [3][4].
养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260120
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 11:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans at a historically high level, which may affect the demand for domestic soybeans [1]. - The corn market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. There is short - term supply pressure, and the upside space is relatively limited, but there are strong buyers when the price is low [2]. - The egg - chicken farming industry has entered a profit - repair stage, but the market has no obvious driving force due to the balance between supply and demand, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [3]. - The pig supply side is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. In 2026, the pig supply pattern is expected to gradually move towards re - balance, but there will still be short - term structural pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Content Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are generally stable, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans. The price of 39% protein content commercial soybeans is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - Two domestic soybean trading sessions organized by Sinograin last week were fully sold. The market demand has some support, but the high price difference between domestic and imported soybeans may affect the demand for domestic soybeans [1]. Corn - The policy - based grain source release in the domestic corn market has significantly increased. After the Spring Festival, more than 700,000 tons of liquidity were released in the first week [2]. - The initial auction of Sinograin had a low成交 rate, but after reducing the reserve price, the成交 rate increased to 77%, with a small premium [2]. - There is short - term supply pressure, the upside space before the Spring Festival is limited, and it is recommended to view it as wide - range fluctuations. Consider buying on dips if there is a large correction [2]. Egg - As of January 18, the profit per catty of eggs has turned positive to 0.6 yuan, indicating that the egg - chicken farming industry has entered a profit - repair stage [3]. - The price rebound has made farmers hesitant about culling old chickens. The supply is balanced by new additions and delayed culling, and inventory has appeared after the price increase. There is no obvious driving force in the market [3]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9% compared to the previous year, and it is currently 101.6% of the normal inventory [3]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [3]. - The pig supply side is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. In 2026, the supply pattern is expected to gradually move towards re - balance, but there will be short - term structural pressure [4][5].
养殖产业链日报:震荡偏强-20260115
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 11:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating and moderately strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybeans are expected to continue an oscillating and moderately strong trend; for corn, attention should be paid to opportunities to buy on dips; for eggs, try to buy at relatively low points and focus on later capacity reduction; for live pigs, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips for far - month contracts [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Soybeans - Northeast产区soybean spot prices are at a high level, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans. The price of 39% protein content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. The 30,000 - ton domestic soybean two - way bidding transaction organized by Sinograin on Tuesday was fully completed. Market demand still has some support, but the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans on the futures market is over 800 yuan per ton, at a historically high level. If the price of domestic soybeans rises further, the demand for domestic soybeans for food or oil - pressing will be affected [1] Corn - As the spot price continues to rise, some trading entities have begun to accelerate grain sales. The number of trucks arriving at Jinzhou Port this morning reached 817, a month - on - month increase of 331. Due to factors such as logistics and transportation, the arrival of grain sources at northern ports will continue to increase. In Shandong, although the number of trucks arriving in the morning is less than 300, considering the low willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grain and the lack of motivation for terminal enterprises to raise prices, the Huanghuaihai market centered on Shandong will gradually enter the peak grain - selling period [1] Eggs - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - chick replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has been declining year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the second half of the year has been increasing month by month. The year - on - year declines in monthly chicken - chick sales from August to December were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively. It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level. The low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will significantly reduce the pressure of newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space is suppressed by the loose spot market, but in the long - term, eggs are gradually getting out of the low - price situation [2] Live Pigs - In 2025, the actual total hog slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises showed a steady increase, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared with 131.6 million heads in 2024. The actual slaughter volume showed significant differences before and after festivals and seasonal characteristics. The current hog supply side is in the stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. The appropriate reduction of the breeding sow inventory lays the foundation for medium - and long - term supply - demand balance. The market will still face short - term structural pressure, but in 2026, the hog supply pattern is expected to gradually re - balance. The significant acceleration of hog capacity reduction further confirms the upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3][4]
养殖产业链日报:震荡偏强-20260114
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 11:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the breeding industry chain is "oscillating upward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market will maintain an oscillating upward trend, with production and sales differentiation persisting [1] - The domestic corn spot market is advancing steadily, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [1] - For eggs, it's advisable to wait and see for now due to high - resistance in capacity elimination [2] - For the far - month contracts of live pigs, it's recommended to buy on dips as there is an upward price expectation [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The production - sales differentiation in the soybean market is hard to reverse in the short term, with the northeast region's price increase lacking terminal demand support and the sales area under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [1] - The purchase and sale two - way bidding transaction of 30,000 tons of domestic soybeans by CGC Grain & Oil Co., Ltd. had a 100% transaction rate, indicating some market demand support [1] Corn - Since the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic corn spot market has advanced steadily, and the expected selling pressure has not materialized while the sales progress is over 50% in the northeast [1] - The local reserve rotation auction in the northeast region was popular this week, and the price was at a premium compared to the current spot [1] - The single - period supply of imported corn auctions will be halved to 100,000 tons next week, presenting opportunities to buy on dips [1] Egg - In December, the laying hen inventory dropped to 1.295 billion, with a young - dominated structure accounting for over 80%, resulting in high resistance in capacity elimination [2] - Without the egg price falling below the feed cost, the industry lacks the motivation to actively clear capacity [2] Live Pig - In 2025, the actual live pig slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises reached 155.79 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024, showing a stable supply foundation [3] - The actual slaughter volume showed significant pre - and post - holiday differences and seasonality, with the lowest in February at 10.349 million and the highest in December at 14.5822 million [3] - The capacity reduction of live pigs has accelerated significantly, indicating an upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3][4]
养殖产业链日报:震荡偏强-20260113
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 09:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the breeding industry chain is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to continue oscillating with a bullish bias; for corn, pay attention to buying opportunities when the price declines; for eggs, it's advisable to stay on the sidelines for now; for live pigs, it's recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [1][2][3] Specific Industry Summaries Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market has remained stable overall. In the producing areas, prices are high with no obvious change in sales. In the consuming areas, prices are stable mainly following the producing areas, but downstream food enterprises have weak demand. The purchase - and - sale two - way bidding transaction of domestic soybeans by CGCGO had a 100% transaction rate, indicating some market demand support [1] Corn - Since the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic corn spot market has advanced steadily. The expected selling pressure has not materialized, and the sales progress in the Northeast has exceeded 50%. The local reserve rotation auctions in the Northeast were popular this week, and the price was at a premium compared to the current spot. Next week, the single - period import corn auction volume will be halved to 100,000 tons, and it's advisable to buy on dips [1] Egg - In December, the laying hen inventory dropped to 1.295 billion. The young - dominated structure (80.12% in the main - producing group) makes capacity elimination difficult. As long as the egg price doesn't fall below the feed cost, there's no incentive for the industry to clear capacity actively. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [2] Live Pig - In 2025, the actual live pig slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises increased steadily, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The monthly slaughter volume showed significant pre - and post - holiday differences and seasonality. The third - party data shows that the capacity reduction has accelerated significantly, indicating an upward price expectation for far - month contracts, and it's recommended to buy on dips [3]
养殖产业链日报:震荡偏强-20260109
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 13:33
Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the breeding industry chain is "Oscillating and Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybean prices are expected to continue a relatively strong trend, while corn prices are expected to slowly rise in the new year, with attention paid to buying opportunities after the phased supply pressure. For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see for now, and for live pigs, it is recommended to buy on dips for far - month contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Category Soybean - The price in the producing area remains high with limited fluctuations in trading volume, and the price in the selling area remains stable, following the trend of the producing area. The market shows a feature of "price stability under the stalemate of supply and demand", and there are signs of "strengthened price support". It is estimated to continue a relatively strong trend [1] Corn - As of December 25, 2025, the corn selling progress in the Northeast producing area was 44%, 8% faster than the same period in 2024, and 40% in North China, 1% slower than the same period in 2024. The spot price has shown a phased slight increase. Farmers in the producing area are reluctant to sell, and the demand remains rigid. It is estimated that the price will slowly rise in the new year, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities after the phased supply pressure [1] Egg - In December, the inventory of laying hens decreased to 1.295 billion. The young - age structure (with the main - producing hens accounting for over 80%) makes it difficult to eliminate production capacity. There is a large resistance to future elimination, and in the absence of egg prices falling below feed costs, the industry lacks the motivation to clear production capacity. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2] Live Pig - In 2025, the actual total live - pig slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises increased steadily, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024. The actual slaughter volume showed significant pre - and post - festival differences and seasonal characteristics. The production capacity reduction has accelerated significantly, indicating an expected price increase for far - month contracts, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]
养殖产业链日报:震荡偏强-20260107
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall investment rating of "Oscillating with an upward bias" for the aquaculture industry chain [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybean prices are expected to continue their upward trend due to strong policy auction results, reduced grassroots grain reserves, and rumors of halted imports [1] - Corn prices are expected to gradually rise in the new year, and investors should watch for buying opportunities after the supply pressure eases [1] - For eggs, with high resistance to capacity elimination and no strong incentive for the industry to clear capacity, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2] - For pigs, although the annual supply is stable, there is an obvious acceleration in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The mainstream trading price is 2.12 - 2.25 yuan per catty, up from the previous trading day [1] - Policy auctions of domestic soybeans have strong results, with active trading and premium transactions, boosting market confidence [1] - Grassroots grain reserves are decreasing, traders are reluctant to sell, and rumors of halted imports of soybeans strengthen the upward trend [1] Corn - As of December 25, 2025, the corn sales progress in the Northeast is 44%, 8% faster than the same period in 2024; in North China, it is 40%, 1% slower than the same period in 2024 [1] - Spot prices are rising slightly. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and the overall demand remains rigid [1] Eggs - In December, the laying hen inventory dropped to 1.295 billion, with a young - dominated structure that resists capacity elimination [2] - Without egg prices falling below feed costs, the industry lacks the motivation to clear capacity [2] Pigs - In 2025, the actual total pig output of domestic breeding enterprises reached 155.79 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024 [3] - The annual output shows significant pre - and post - holiday differences and seasonal characteristics [3] - There is an obvious acceleration in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [3][4]
养殖产业链日报:震荡偏强-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 11:08
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the breeding industry chain in the report is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The new soybean purchase price released on Wednesday has increased significantly compared to November, providing bottom - support for the spot price. Although state - reserve soybean auctions have increased supply, the strong demand before the Spring Festival has led to a strong trend in the spot and futures markets. However, attention should be paid to the market reaction after consecutive auctions of imported soybeans after New Year's Day, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term [1] - The domestic corn market is in a consolidation and oscillation pattern with regional differences. In the Northeast market, growers are reluctant to sell due to lower storage difficulty, but the continuous auction of imported corn, sufficient downstream inventory, and weak purchasing enthusiasm have led to cautious trading. The far - month contracts may have a slight upward shift in the center of gravity and a rebound expectation after the supply pressure eases [1] - The low egg price and continuous losses have led to an inflection point in the decline of laying - hen inventory. Although the inventory is still at a high level historically and the supply is abundant, which suppresses the egg price, and the far - month price has no obvious driving force [2] - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025, and the speed and intensity of subsequent capacity reduction will determine the supply contraction. The current supply pressure of live pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory makes the far - month contracts in 2026 have the possibility of rising, which may be reflected in the futures market after the Spring Festival [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - The 2022 state - reserve soybean auction has increased market supply. The new soybean purchase price released on Wednesday is significantly higher than that in November, supporting the spot price. The high auction transaction rates before the Spring Festival indicate strong demand, keeping the spot and futures markets strong. Attention should be paid to the market reaction after consecutive auctions of imported soybeans after New Year's Day, with a medium - term wide - range oscillation [1] Corn - The domestic corn market is oscillating and consolidating, with regional differences. In the Northeast, growers are reluctant to sell due to lower storage difficulty, especially for high - quality corn. However, continuous imported corn auctions, sufficient downstream inventory, and weak purchasing enthusiasm in the breeding industry have led to cautious trading. Although the auction volume has increased, the market demand still exists, but the willingness to accept high prices is weak. The far - month contracts may have a slight upward shift and a rebound expectation after the supply pressure eases [1] Eggs - Low prices and continuous losses have led to a decline in laying - hen inventory. As of the end of November, the quarterly average of laying - hen inventory was about 1.356 billion, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease. However, the current inventory is still at a historically high level, with a high proportion of medium - and large - sized eggs, resulting in oversupply and suppressing the egg price. The far - month price has no obvious driving force [2] Pigs - In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million, still higher than the industry's reasonable regulatory target of 39 million but showing a clear downward trend. The speed and intensity of subsequent capacity reduction will determine the supply contraction. The current supply pressure of live pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory, especially of breeding sows, makes the far - month contracts in 2026 have the possibility of rising, which may be reflected in the futures market after the Spring Festival [2][3]
养殖产业链日报:延续弱势-20251224
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 12:09
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the breeding industry chain continues to be weak. Soybean prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend, corn prices are expected to be in a strong - side shock before the festival, egg contracts are in a shock with no trend - like market, and the pig market needs to wait for an obvious trend - like market [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are of high - quality and high - price, with low - protein soybeans having greater shipping pressure, and overall prices are stable. The winning bid rate of 211,108 tons of 2022 domestic soybean auction by Sinograin on Monday was 62%. Since the autumn listing, domestic soybeans have shown a pattern of low opening and high going, and Sinograin's purchase price of standard soybeans meeting futures delivery requirements is 2.025 yuan per catty. There is a strong policy support, with a two - way restraint between policy support and auction volume increase. The trend of soybean No.1 is expected to continue the range - bound trend [1] 3.2 Corn - Affected by the cold air, from December 22 to 25, most parts of China will experience temperature drops, and some areas will have heavy snow or blizzards. The snowy weather in the production areas will interfere with domestic grain transportation, while the weather in the sales areas is conducive to transportation. The cold and snowy weather in the production areas is not conducive to purchasing and sales activities, but helps the corn market to rise. The release of negative news such as regulatory reserve releases has alleviated the previous supply - demand mismatch contradiction, curbing price increases. Corn is expected to remain volatile before the festival, with limited upside space in the short - term [1] 3.3 Egg - In November, the national inventory of laying hens was still 1.307 billion, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.31%, but still at a high level in the same period in recent years. The daily egg production is sufficient, and the market circulation pressure remains high. The short - term supply is still loose. The near - month spot remains in a volatile trend, and the far - month contract is in a tug - of - war between capacity reduction expectations and the slower - than - expected actual progress. There is currently no trend - like market, and the far - month contract has certain expected support but needs time to verify [2] 3.4 Pig - Currently, the temperature in the south is dropping slowly, and the demand for curing in the south is less than expected. The relatively late Spring Festival next year also delays some concentrated procurement demand, and the support from the consumption side for pig prices is limited. The supply - side pressure remains. Near the end of the year, some farmers need to cash in, and group pig enterprises have the phenomenon of increasing year - end sales. The spot supply pressure of pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory, especially the inventory of breeding sows, makes the far - month contracts next year have the possibility of rising, but this price increase will be reflected on the market at least after the Spring Festival. The pig market needs to wait for an obvious trend - like market, and whether the far - month price is undervalued is worthy of attention [2]