Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the breeding industry chain is "Oscillating and Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybean prices are expected to continue a relatively strong trend, while corn prices are expected to slowly rise in the new year, with attention paid to buying opportunities after the phased supply pressure. For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see for now, and for live pigs, it is recommended to buy on dips for far - month contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Category Soybean - The price in the producing area remains high with limited fluctuations in trading volume, and the price in the selling area remains stable, following the trend of the producing area. The market shows a feature of "price stability under the stalemate of supply and demand", and there are signs of "strengthened price support". It is estimated to continue a relatively strong trend [1] Corn - As of December 25, 2025, the corn selling progress in the Northeast producing area was 44%, 8% faster than the same period in 2024, and 40% in North China, 1% slower than the same period in 2024. The spot price has shown a phased slight increase. Farmers in the producing area are reluctant to sell, and the demand remains rigid. It is estimated that the price will slowly rise in the new year, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities after the phased supply pressure [1] Egg - In December, the inventory of laying hens decreased to 1.295 billion. The young - age structure (with the main - producing hens accounting for over 80%) makes it difficult to eliminate production capacity. There is a large resistance to future elimination, and in the absence of egg prices falling below feed costs, the industry lacks the motivation to clear production capacity. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2] Live Pig - In 2025, the actual total live - pig slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises increased steadily, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024. The actual slaughter volume showed significant pre - and post - festival differences and seasonal characteristics. The production capacity reduction has accelerated significantly, indicating an expected price increase for far - month contracts, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall investment rating of "Oscillating with an upward bias" for the aquaculture industry chain [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybean prices are expected to continue their upward trend due to strong policy auction results, reduced grassroots grain reserves, and rumors of halted imports [1] - Corn prices are expected to gradually rise in the new year, and investors should watch for buying opportunities after the supply pressure eases [1] - For eggs, with high resistance to capacity elimination and no strong incentive for the industry to clear capacity, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2] - For pigs, although the annual supply is stable, there is an obvious acceleration in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The mainstream trading price is 2.12 - 2.25 yuan per catty, up from the previous trading day [1] - Policy auctions of domestic soybeans have strong results, with active trading and premium transactions, boosting market confidence [1] - Grassroots grain reserves are decreasing, traders are reluctant to sell, and rumors of halted imports of soybeans strengthen the upward trend [1] Corn - As of December 25, 2025, the corn sales progress in the Northeast is 44%, 8% faster than the same period in 2024; in North China, it is 40%, 1% slower than the same period in 2024 [1] - Spot prices are rising slightly. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and the overall demand remains rigid [1] Eggs - In December, the laying hen inventory dropped to 1.295 billion, with a young - dominated structure that resists capacity elimination [2] - Without egg prices falling below feed costs, the industry lacks the motivation to clear capacity [2] Pigs - In 2025, the actual total pig output of domestic breeding enterprises reached 155.79 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024 [3] - The annual output shows significant pre - and post - holiday differences and seasonal characteristics [3] - There is an obvious acceleration in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [3][4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the breeding industry chain in the report is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The new soybean purchase price released on Wednesday has increased significantly compared to November, providing bottom - support for the spot price. Although state - reserve soybean auctions have increased supply, the strong demand before the Spring Festival has led to a strong trend in the spot and futures markets. However, attention should be paid to the market reaction after consecutive auctions of imported soybeans after New Year's Day, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term [1] - The domestic corn market is in a consolidation and oscillation pattern with regional differences. In the Northeast market, growers are reluctant to sell due to lower storage difficulty, but the continuous auction of imported corn, sufficient downstream inventory, and weak purchasing enthusiasm have led to cautious trading. The far - month contracts may have a slight upward shift in the center of gravity and a rebound expectation after the supply pressure eases [1] - The low egg price and continuous losses have led to an inflection point in the decline of laying - hen inventory. Although the inventory is still at a high level historically and the supply is abundant, which suppresses the egg price, and the far - month price has no obvious driving force [2] - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025, and the speed and intensity of subsequent capacity reduction will determine the supply contraction. The current supply pressure of live pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory makes the far - month contracts in 2026 have the possibility of rising, which may be reflected in the futures market after the Spring Festival [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - The 2022 state - reserve soybean auction has increased market supply. The new soybean purchase price released on Wednesday is significantly higher than that in November, supporting the spot price. The high auction transaction rates before the Spring Festival indicate strong demand, keeping the spot and futures markets strong. Attention should be paid to the market reaction after consecutive auctions of imported soybeans after New Year's Day, with a medium - term wide - range oscillation [1] Corn - The domestic corn market is oscillating and consolidating, with regional differences. In the Northeast, growers are reluctant to sell due to lower storage difficulty, especially for high - quality corn. However, continuous imported corn auctions, sufficient downstream inventory, and weak purchasing enthusiasm in the breeding industry have led to cautious trading. Although the auction volume has increased, the market demand still exists, but the willingness to accept high prices is weak. The far - month contracts may have a slight upward shift and a rebound expectation after the supply pressure eases [1] Eggs - Low prices and continuous losses have led to a decline in laying - hen inventory. As of the end of November, the quarterly average of laying - hen inventory was about 1.356 billion, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease. However, the current inventory is still at a historically high level, with a high proportion of medium - and large - sized eggs, resulting in oversupply and suppressing the egg price. The far - month price has no obvious driving force [2] Pigs - In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million, still higher than the industry's reasonable regulatory target of 39 million but showing a clear downward trend. The speed and intensity of subsequent capacity reduction will determine the supply contraction. The current supply pressure of live pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory, especially of breeding sows, makes the far - month contracts in 2026 have the possibility of rising, which may be reflected in the futures market after the Spring Festival [2][3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the breeding industry chain continues to be weak. Soybean prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend, corn prices are expected to be in a strong - side shock before the festival, egg contracts are in a shock with no trend - like market, and the pig market needs to wait for an obvious trend - like market [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are of high - quality and high - price, with low - protein soybeans having greater shipping pressure, and overall prices are stable. The winning bid rate of 211,108 tons of 2022 domestic soybean auction by Sinograin on Monday was 62%. Since the autumn listing, domestic soybeans have shown a pattern of low opening and high going, and Sinograin's purchase price of standard soybeans meeting futures delivery requirements is 2.025 yuan per catty. There is a strong policy support, with a two - way restraint between policy support and auction volume increase. The trend of soybean No.1 is expected to continue the range - bound trend [1] 3.2 Corn - Affected by the cold air, from December 22 to 25, most parts of China will experience temperature drops, and some areas will have heavy snow or blizzards. The snowy weather in the production areas will interfere with domestic grain transportation, while the weather in the sales areas is conducive to transportation. The cold and snowy weather in the production areas is not conducive to purchasing and sales activities, but helps the corn market to rise. The release of negative news such as regulatory reserve releases has alleviated the previous supply - demand mismatch contradiction, curbing price increases. Corn is expected to remain volatile before the festival, with limited upside space in the short - term [1] 3.3 Egg - In November, the national inventory of laying hens was still 1.307 billion, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.31%, but still at a high level in the same period in recent years. The daily egg production is sufficient, and the market circulation pressure remains high. The short - term supply is still loose. The near - month spot remains in a volatile trend, and the far - month contract is in a tug - of - war between capacity reduction expectations and the slower - than - expected actual progress. There is currently no trend - like market, and the far - month contract has certain expected support but needs time to verify [2] 3.4 Pig - Currently, the temperature in the south is dropping slowly, and the demand for curing in the south is less than expected. The relatively late Spring Festival next year also delays some concentrated procurement demand, and the support from the consumption side for pig prices is limited. The supply - side pressure remains. Near the end of the year, some farmers need to cash in, and group pig enterprises have the phenomenon of increasing year - end sales. The spot supply pressure of pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory, especially the inventory of breeding sows, makes the far - month contracts next year have the possibility of rising, but this price increase will be reflected on the market at least after the Spring Festival. The pig market needs to wait for an obvious trend - like market, and whether the far - month price is undervalued is worthy of attention [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The soybean market shows a pattern of "price increase driven by sentiment in production areas and limited by demand". It will remain volatile in the short - term, and domestic soybeans may decline if the near - month auction volume of imported soybeans drops [1] - For corn, the selling pressure on prices will gradually decrease as the current sales progress advances. After the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing the short - term upward space, but the worst stage is over, and there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1] - Egg spot prices have stabilized, but the upward drive weakens as the price approaches the cost line. The short - term supply is still loose, and the far - month contracts have no obvious trend [2] - The pig market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with stable prices. Demand increase is expected to be greater than supply increase, which may drive prices up marginally to near the cost line. The far - month contracts may rise after the Spring Festival, but significant trends still need to wait [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Soybean - The soybean market has the characteristic of "price increase driven by sentiment in production areas and limited by demand". Northeast production areas lead the increase, while the southern market follows but with insufficient demand. In the short - term, there is a game between hoarding sentiment on the supply side and cautious procurement on the demand side. It will maintain a volatile pattern, and domestic soybeans may decline if the near - month auction volume of imported soybeans drops [1] Corn - The average grassroots sales progress in Northeast China is about 38% according to three - party data and 42% according to the National Grain and Oil Information Center. The selling pressure on prices will gradually decrease. The inventory in the trading link is significantly higher than last year, which is a key variable for the market trend. After the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing the short - term upward space, but the worst stage is over, and there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1] Egg - Egg spot prices have stabilized, but the upward drive weakens as the price approaches the cost line. The short - term supply is still loose, and the near - month spot remains volatile. The far - month contracts are affected by the inconsistent expectations of production capacity reduction and the actual progress, and there is no obvious trend [2] Pig - The pig market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with stable prices. The daily average slaughter volume in December has only increased slightly, and the weight gain is not obvious. With the cooling and expected bacon - curing, demand increase is expected to be greater than supply increase, which may drive prices up marginally to near the cost line. However, there is still a large supply pressure. The decline in the near - month inventory, especially the breeding sow inventory, makes the far - month contracts likely to rise after the Spring Festival, but significant trends still need to wait [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - **Soybean Oil**: China's soybean oil inventory is accumulating, but it is expected to stop increasing and decline in the fourth - quarter consumption season. The futures price center may move up slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The main contract of rapeseed oil is weak. Although the inventory is high, it is decreasing. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the long - term price is expected to strengthen. Aggressive investors can consider going long on the 01 contract on dips [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The price is affected by the decline in international crude oil prices, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No.2**: The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the consumption is in the off - season. The price is weak. It is recommended to short the main contract lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, consider going long on the 01 contract's bean oil - meal ratio [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract's rapeseed oil - meal ratio [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is in a game between harvest pressure and good exports. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [5]. - **Soybean No.1**: The new - season soybeans are on the market, and the high - quality ones are popular. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [6]. - **Peanut**: The new - season peanuts are on the market, and the supply pressure exists. It is recommended to hold long positions for now [6]. - **Live Pig**: The spot price stops falling, and the futures price rebounds. It is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then go long on the 2607 contract on dips [8]. - **Egg**: The futures price is at the bottom and oscillating. It is recommended for conservative investors to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on the 2512 contract on dips [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | New domestic soybeans are on the market, and downstream purchases are active. Low valuation. | 4000 - 4030 | 4100 - 4150 | Oscillatory adjustment | Exit long positions | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Weak reality collides with strong expectations. | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillatory adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Increasing supply, poor yield in some areas of Henan. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillatory adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Stable fundamentals, affected by crude oil. Supply is sufficient, and the outlook for the fourth quarter is positive. | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillatory rise | Go long with a light position | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Import volume increased in September, but inventory in East China and coastal areas is decreasing. | 9800 - 9820 | 10220 - 10250 | Oscillatory adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | | Palm 01 | Production exceeds expectations, but inventory pressure is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50. | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillatory adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 01 | Sufficient inventory, weak feed demand in the fourth quarter. Positive expectation lies in Sino - US trade friction. | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillatory adjustment | Hold short positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Inventory in coastal oil mills is decreasing, and market disturbances are mixed. | 2270 - 2300 | 2400 - 2430 | Oscillatory adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | After hitting a new low, sentiment is divided. Upside space is limited. | 2000 - 2020 | 2180 - 2200 | Bottom - level oscillation | Reduce short positions on dips | | | Starch 01 | Corn price is under pressure, and the spot is slightly loose. Upside support is insufficient. | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bottom - level oscillation | Reduce short positions on dips | | Livestock | Live Pig 01 | Feed price stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11800 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Turn to waiting and seeing | | | Egg 12 | Capacity pressure and consumption peak - season expectation. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Wait and see | [11] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, except for corn 5 - 1 (go long on dips) and live pig 1 - 3 (positive arbitrage on dips) [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some oil - related and protein - related spreads, different strategies such as short - selling, long - buying, and waiting and seeing are recommended. For example, go long on the 01 contract's bean oil - meal ratio and rapeseed oil - meal ratio [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy The table shows the spot prices, price changes, main contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors such as oilseeds, oils, and proteins [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including CNF prices, arrival - at - port duty - paid prices, etc. [15][16] - **Weekly Data**: Shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts. For example, soybean port inventory is 729.97 (33.71), and the bean crushing operating rate is 58.00% (1.00%) [17] 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Presents the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18] 3.2.3 Livestock - **Daily Data**: Includes the spot prices, price changes, and relevant ratios of live pigs and eggs in different regions and at different times [19][20] - **Weekly Data**: Shows the weekly average prices, costs, profits, and other data of live pigs and eggs [21][23] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes a large number of charts related to the livestock end (live pigs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseeds, soybean meal), showing various data such as prices, inventories, operating rates, and spreads [24][33][54] 3.4 Fourth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Options Situation It shows the historical volatility and trading volume of options of some varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil [92] 3.5 Fifth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Warehouse Receipt Situation It presents the warehouse receipt situations of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil [100]

Group 1 - The poultry industry is experiencing a price recovery, with prices for fast, medium, and slow chickens rising by 39%, 36%, and 22% respectively from June lows, driven by supply clearance and demand recovery [1] - A specific company's yellow chicken business achieved a breakeven cost of 5.6 yuan per pound in August, marking a turnaround in monthly performance [1] - The pig farming market is facing increased supply pressure, leading to price declines, with a target of 2 million pigs to be marketed by 2025, representing a 54% growth [1] Group 2 - The cost of pig farming in August was reported at 6.3 yuan per pound, with the cost of piglets dropping below 280 yuan per head [1] - As of September 15, 2023, the livestock ETF (159867.SZ) rose by 0.87%, and the related index, the CSI Livestock Index, increased by 1.01% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, and Tiankang Biological, saw price increases of 2.62%, 1.95%, and 5.78% respectively [1] Group 3 - The pig farming industry is under pressure from declining prices due to supply release, with potential long-term risks from feed ingredient price fluctuations [3] - Major feed companies are expected to see significant sales growth in the first half of 2025, benefiting from a recovery in downstream farming volumes [3] - Haida Group reported a 26% year-on-year increase in feed sales, with a 40% increase in overseas sales, supporting its performance [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "养殖产业链数据报告 - 豆粕、油脂" [1] - Report date: July 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - No information provided Group 4: Summary of Soybean Meal Data - The current price of 43% protein soybean meal is 2,892 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous value [2] - The current futures - spot price difference of soybean meal is - 100 yuan/ton, up 49.25% [2] - The output of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 1.6294 million tons, down 0.21% [2] - The daily trading volume of soybean meal is 185,100 tons, up 119.05% [2] - The apparent consumption of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 1.5799 million tons, up 5.81% [2] - The inventory of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 0.7869 million tons, up 6.71% [2] - The basis of the main soybean meal spot contract is - 61.14 yuan/ton, up 62.13% [2] Group 5: Summary of Oil Data - The current inventory of palm oil in China is 563,000 tons, up 5.21% [3] - The current inventory of rapeseed oil in China is 685,600 tons, down 2.00% [3] - The current inventory of soybean oil in China is 1.0494 million tons, up 2.91% [3] - The current futures - spot price difference of palm oil in China is 112 yuan/ton, down 35.63% [3] - The current futures - spot price difference of rapeseed oil in China is 128 yuan/ton, down 3.03% [3] - The current futures - spot price difference of soybean oil and palm oil in China is - 702 yuan/ton, up 23.81% [3] - The basis of the main palm oil spot contract is 221.33 yuan/ton, up 48.54% [3] - The basis of the main rapeseed oil spot contract is 211 yuan/ton, up 14.36% [3] - The basis of the main soybean oil spot contract is 210.84 yuan/ton, up 10.24% [3]