Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The domestic decision - makers have introduced a series of livelihood and consumption - promoting policies, but the demand repair needs time. The new RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan in July due to multiple factors, and the credit cycle has not started. Overseas, the market's expectation of the US interest rate cut has risen again [2]. - The market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, but the US inflation stickiness has not been eradicated, and the dollar index may fluctuate around 98 in the short term [4]. - The A - share market rose significantly with heavy volume, and it is expected to have upward space in the short term, but the weak fundamentals may suppress the upward movement of the stock index center if the situation persists [6]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1755 on the previous trading day, up 156 basis points. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 68 basis points. The US inflation is generally stable, and the Jackson Hole meeting may be crucial [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise with heavy volume yesterday, and the small - cap stocks performed strongly. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 269.417 billion yuan. Foreign capital is accelerating its inflow into the Chinese stock market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The bond market was less affected by the strong rise of the A - share market. The 7 - month financing was still supported by government bonds, and the new loans turned negative. It is recommended to buy the next - quarter contracts at low prices [7]. Group 5: Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) continued to decline. The spot prices of some shipping routes have changed. It is expected that the EC will fluctuate and decline or continue to fluctuate in the future [8][9]. Group 6: Commodities - Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut within the year has risen. It is recommended to buy on dips for the medium - and long - term [11][13]. Group 7: Commodities - Base Metals - Copper prices were in high - level shock. The inflation data in the US is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be in high - level shock in the short term and have upward momentum in the medium term. Alumina is expected to be in weak shock, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate [17][19]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Tin prices fell slightly, and it is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [20][21]. Group 8: Commodities - Black Metals - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil followed the decline of coking coal and then stabilized slightly at night. The short - term market is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [22][24]. - Iron ore prices declined due to the cooling of sentiment. The short - term supply is neutral, and the demand is expected to be stable, with prices expected to fluctuate [25][26]. - Coking coal and coke prices opened lower with a gap. The supply reduction expectation of coking coal is strengthened, and the medium - and long - term trends are not pessimistic, but attention should be paid to the impact of Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limit [27][29]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese followed the decline of coal. The demand is supported in the short term, but the long - term demand is uncertain, and they follow the price fluctuations of coal [30][32]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices continued to fall due to the unexpected increase in EIA inventories. The supply surplus risk is increasing, and attention should be paid to the progress of the "Trump - Putin meeting" on the cease - fire in Ukraine [34][36]. - PX - PTA prices followed the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to expand the PTA processing fee at low prices [37][39]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be in a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Bottle - grade PET prices follow the cost side, and the processing fee is operated in a range [40][42]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [43][44]. - PP and PE prices mainly follow the macro - sentiment fluctuations. The supply and demand of PP are relatively stable, and PE is moving towards a pattern of both supply and demand growth [45][49]. - PVC is recommended to be short - allocated. It is in a state of high valuation, high inventory, and high warehouse receipts [50][51]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to shrink the pure benzene - styrene price difference at high prices [52][54]. - Fuel oil prices are still weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices fell due to the drag of crude oil. Asphalt prices followed the cost side in weak shock [55][59]. - Rubber prices are under pressure above, with internal and external differentiation. It is recommended to expand the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber at low prices [60]. Group 10: Commodities - Building Materials - The prices of soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be in shock. Soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, glass is in a weak - balance state, and caustic soda needs to pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand [61][65]. - Log prices have limited downward space, and it is recommended to buy on dips [66]. Group 11: Agricultural Products - Hog prices are recommended to be short - sold at high prices, and appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [67]. - Oilseeds are recommended to be bought on dips. The short - term decline space of domestic soybean - based products is limited, and the rapeseed - based products can be long - positioned after the short - term rise and fall [68][70]. - The prices of oils are running strongly. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different influencing factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and relationships [71][72]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The low inventory of old cotton supports the price, and attention should be paid to the downstream stocking situation [72][73].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment and its impact on various industries, including the steel, photovoltaic, and agricultural sectors, particularly focusing on the implications of government policies aimed at addressing overcapacity and price competition. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Government Policy on Overcapacity** The central government is addressing overcapacity and price competition across various industries, with a focus on sectors like steel, coal, and new energy vehicles. The recent meetings emphasize the need for lawful governance of enterprises to stabilize the market [1][4][5]. 2. **Market Reactions and Price Movements** There has been a noticeable rebound in prices for certain commodities, including photovoltaic materials and black metals, following government announcements. For instance, glass prices related to real estate saw an increase of over 6% [2][3]. 3. **Economic Indicators** The domestic economy is experiencing significant supply-demand imbalances, with industrial output growth (6.3% year-on-year) outpacing investment growth (3.7%) and consumption [3][4]. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a decline of 3.3% year-on-year, indicating deflationary pressures [3]. 4. **Sector-Specific Insights** - **Steel Industry**: The steel sector is currently profitable, with long-process steel mills reporting high profit margins. However, the potential for policy changes regarding production cuts remains uncertain [9][10]. - **Photovoltaic Sector**: The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges due to high inventory levels and declining demand, particularly for polysilicon [48][49]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The pig farming industry is stabilizing due to group companies controlling supply, which helps maintain price stability despite previous expectations of losses [43][44][46]. 5. **Future Expectations** The upcoming political meetings are expected to provide further clarity on the implementation of policies aimed at reducing overcapacity. Market participants are advised to monitor these developments closely [8][10]. 6. **Investment Sentiment** Despite the current challenges, there is a cautious optimism in the market, with expectations of potential rebounds in certain sectors. However, the overall sentiment remains tempered by the need for concrete policy details and implementation [12][26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Structural Changes** The discussions highlight a shift in focus from traditional industries to emerging sectors like electric vehicles and e-commerce, indicating a broader structural transformation in the economy [5][6]. 2. **Impact of Seasonal Factors** Seasonal demand fluctuations, particularly in the agricultural sector, are expected to influence pricing and supply dynamics in the coming months [33][46]. 3. **Global Market Influences** The conference also touched on the influence of global markets, particularly OPEC's production decisions, which could impact domestic oil prices and related sectors [29][30][32]. 4. **Technological Advancements** Innovations in production processes, especially in the photovoltaic sector, are noted as critical factors that could affect supply and demand dynamics in the future [48][49]. 5. **Regulatory Environment** The regulatory landscape is evolving, with increased scrutiny on production practices and environmental standards, which could lead to further industry consolidation and efficiency improvements [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, with the expectation of increased future supply, the spot price is likely to continue to decline. Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, there is no obvious short - term boost on the demand side. Secondary fattening demand may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related factors such as state reserve purchases and sales and the "anti - involution" policy need attention, as well as supply - side slaughter changes [2] - In the egg market, the current demand remains at a normal level during the off - season. The cold - storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. The approaching end of the plum - rain season in southern sales areas and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival have limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,285 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (- 0.42%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The price of external ternary live hogs in Henan was 14.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 15.10 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.04 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.90 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 315, a change of - 40; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 815, a change of + 20; in Sichuan, it was LH09 - 385, a change of - 220 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on July 14: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.02, down 0.33 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.12, down 0.38 points. The average price of pork was 20.60 yuan/kg, unchanged; beef was 63.92 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 59.38 yuan/kg, unchanged; eggs were 6.97 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; white - striped chickens were 17.21 yuan/kg, up 1.2% [1] Market Analysis - Due to expected supply increase and the seasonal consumption off - season, the spot price may decline. Secondary fattening may enter the market when the price reaches around 14 yuan/kg. Policy factors and supply - side slaughter changes need to be monitored [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3461 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 19 yuan (+ 0.55%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.22; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.25; in Hebei, it was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD08 - 881, a change of + 201; in Shandong, it was JD08 - 611, a change of + 231; in Hebei, it was JD08 - 881, a change of + 51 [3] - Inventory: On July 14, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous trading day; the circulation - link inventory was 0.98 days, a decrease of 0.34 days [3] Market Analysis - The current demand is weak during the off - season. Cold - storage warehousing in northern areas has slowed down, and the approaching end of the plum - rain season and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival in southern areas have limited impact on demand. The short - term oversupply pattern will continue, and farmers will keep losing money [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-13 需求仍显清淡，生猪现价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13750元/吨，较前交易日变动+150.00元/吨，幅度+1.10%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格14.00元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+250，较前交易日变动-160；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.24元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH09+490，较前交易日变动-160；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+130，较前交易日变动-150。 据农业农村部监测，6月12日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.09，比昨天下降0.08个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为113.18，比昨天下降0.09个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.33元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；牛肉62.96 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%；羊肉59.53元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；鸡蛋7.31元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%；白条鸡17.05 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the economic transformation of Dongmenzai Village, known for its abundant gardenia flowers, which has become a significant source of income for local residents through flower cultivation and related industries [3][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Dongmenzai Village has developed 500 acres of gardenia fields, with 105 households involved in this fragrant industry, creating a flower fragrance industry chain from fresh flower sales to deep processing [3][10]. - Villager Li Guifeng earned approximately 80,000 yuan from flower sales last year, indicating the profitability of gardenia cultivation [4]. - The village's annual production of fresh flowers reached between 4 million to 8 million blooms by 2021, making it a crucial income source for residents [9]. Group 2: Market Development - The introduction of express delivery services has enabled villagers to sell gardenia flowers nationwide, with orders coming from cities like Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Fuzhou [10]. - A Sichuan company has started purchasing "leftover" flowers for essential oil and perfume production, allowing villagers to monetize flowers that would otherwise go unsold [10]. - The village is exploring the establishment of a public brand for gardenias to enhance product recognition and market competitiveness [13]. Group 3: Community and Tourism - The village has attracted tourists, enhancing local engagement and promoting the sale of unique agricultural products [11]. - An ecological farming model combining flowers, rice, and shrimp has been developed, which has been well-received by visitors [11]. - Young villagers are returning to start businesses, leveraging social media platforms to promote local products [12]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Plans are underway to diversify product offerings, including dried flowers, scented sachets, and gardenia tea, to increase added value [13]. - The village aims to register trademarks for "Dongmenzai Gardenia" to boost market presence and competitiveness [13].