Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are currently weak due to the directional auction policy, but may rise after New Year's Day due to downstream seasonal restocking. In the medium to long term, focus on import and domestic auction policies [5] - Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly after New Year's Day supported by year - end stocking. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key [5] - Short - term sugar prices are driven by short - covering, and in the long term, if the global sugar surplus increases, prices may fall to the out - of - quota import cost [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve next year due to factors like expanding textile production, good profits and favorable tariff policies [10] - For eggs, the key is the egg - laying hen culling rhythm. Accelerated culling may benefit second - quarter egg prices [16] - Apple prices show a pattern of good quality goods being stable and lower - quality goods weakening. The market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [19] - Pig prices are rising due to factors such as supply reduction by farmers, second - round fattening, and New Year's Day stocking. Pay attention to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases and policies [19] Group 3: Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, corn prices in Changchun remained at 2160, while in other regions, there were changes such as a 30 increase in Jinzhou and a 6 decrease in Weifang. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively [4] - **Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are affected by the auction policy and downstream restocking. Starch prices are affected by downstream restocking enthusiasm and raw material costs [5] Group 4: Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 26, 2025, sugar prices in Liuzhou, Nanning and Kunming showed an upward trend, and the basis and import profit also changed [6] - **Analysis**: Short - term sugar prices are driven by short - covering, and long - term prices depend on the global sugar supply situation [7] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, cotton price at 3128 index changed from 14895 to 15240, and other related data such as import profit and spinning profit also had fluctuations [20] - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve next year, and it is suitable for long - term investment [10] Group 6: Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, egg prices in different production areas changed, and the basis decreased by 105.00 [15] - **Analysis**: The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of egg - laying hens [16] Group 7: Apples - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00, and the basis for different months changed [18] - **Analysis**: The apple market is currently in a weak state with slow inventory removal, and the price pattern is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [19] Group 8: Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, pig prices in different production areas increased significantly, and the basis also increased [19] - **Analysis**: Pig prices are rising due to supply and demand factors, and attention should be paid to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases and policies [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean and Meal**: CBOT soybeans declined slightly on Tuesday, pressured by slow sales in the US and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. Domestic soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, supported by costs but with pressure on crushing margins [2][5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Domestic oils continued to rebound on Tuesday. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil improved month - on - month, but high year - on - year production limited the upside. The medium - term de - stocking expectation in Southeast Asia has weakened. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7][9]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to see increased production in major sugar - producing countries, shifting the global supply - demand balance from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Cotton**: The downstream operating rate remains at a medium level, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to potential adjustments in the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy, there has been short - term capital inflow, but the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low [17]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to be mostly stable with slight declines in some areas. The near - term futures contract may continue to squeeze the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term futures contract has expectations of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high [19][20]. - **Pigs**: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreases marginally but still supports pig prices. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The near - term contract is expected to trade in a range, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose about 10 yuan/ton on Monday with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.1306 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises increased by 0.1 days to 9.23 days, port soybean inventories decreased by 500,000 tons, but soybean meal inventories increased due to high crushing volume, about 550,000 tons higher year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the bottom of the import cost may have been reached, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.15% in the first 20 days of December. Ship - loading agency data indicates that exports decreased by 0.87% in the first 20 days. China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a significant increase. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. Domestic oils continued to rebound on Tuesday [7]. - **Strategy**: Excessive production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed palm oil prices. The current high - supply and high - inventory situation may reverse in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of a sharp decline due to high production in 2018 - 2019 should be noted. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [9]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound, with the May contract closing at 5,155 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. In November 2025, China's sugar imports decreased by 90,000 tons year - on - year, while cumulative imports from January - November increased by 380,000 tons year - on - year. Brazilian and Indian sugar production data showed different trends [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to see increased production in major sugar - producing countries, and the global supply - demand balance has shifted to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, with the May contract closing at 14,140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased. In November 2025, China's cotton imports increased by 10,000 tons year - on - year. As of December 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, slightly lower. The global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was adjusted down by 60,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is not bad after the peak season, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to potential adjustments in the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy, there has been short - term capital inflow, but the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low [17]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most national egg prices were stable on Tuesday, with some areas seeing a slight decline. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, and terminal participation is conservative [19]. - **Strategy**: The previous over - expectation of the peak - season inventory has led to a high premium in the futures market. The near - term contract may continue to squeeze the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high [20]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices mostly rose on Tuesday, with some areas stable or slightly lower. The average price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan to 11.69 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained stable at 11.61 yuan/kg. Northern secondary fattening purchases increased, and prices may be stable with a slight upward trend. Southern demand is lower than expected, with prices stable and slightly higher in the southwest [22]. - **Strategy**: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreases marginally but still supports pig prices. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The near - term contract is expected to trade in a range, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral Outlook**: Soybean [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall trend of agricultural products shows a mixed pattern, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] - The prices of some products are expected to follow the market situation, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors such as export, weather, and production season [3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - The main soybean contract rebounded after a short - term gap, and the contract is being shifted. The auction of soybeans by CGS in the middle of this week had a certain supporting effect on the price, and the price was stable and strong. It is necessary to continuously monitor the fundamentals and policies [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The de - stocking trend of soybean meal since December is difficult to continue. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The price of US soybean futures has fallen back to the previous bottom range. The price of soybean meal will follow the US soybean to fluctuate in the near future [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil continued to rebound, while soybean oil fell back after rising. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil showed an improvement in exports and a decline in production, alleviating the negative atmosphere. US soybeans also rebounded after a recent decline [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market has seen rising meal and falling oil recently, but the overall fluctuation range is not large. The domestic coastal oil mills maintain a zero - pressing state. The import data in November shows that the trade between China and Russia in the rapeseed sector is getting closer. The rapeseed futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports have slowly declined. The downstream procurement has no obvious increase after the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures and spot markets have both risen slightly. It is expected that there will be a wave of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support the current pig price. In the medium - to - long term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year, and the main 03 contract price is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg contract has increased its position by more than 10,000 lots. The contracts corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival are weak, while the contracts from the second to the third quarter have increased in position and price. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry but gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "Oscillating Weakly", "Oscillating", and "Oscillating Upwards" [1][6][7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various agricultural products, considering factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and policy impacts, and provides short - to long - term outlooks on price trends for each product [1][6][7] Summary by Product 1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, the market showed a divergent trend, with palm oil relatively resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Influenced by factors such as pre - holiday position adjustment, US soybean price decline, US dollar strengthening, and South American soybean harvest expectations, the market is facing multiple factors' games. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is oscillating weakly, palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating weakly [6] 2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply outlook for South American soybeans is optimistic, and both domestic and international markets are continuing to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: South American soybean sowing is nearly complete, and production prospects are good. In the US, soybean crushing has decreased month - on - month. In China, state - reserve soybean auctions continue, and inventory reduction is slow. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The purchasing demand for Northeast corn has declined, and price support has weakened. - **Logic**: Market rumors of reserve auctions and high - level price points have led to a change in market sentiment. In the Northeast, the willingness to sell has increased, and in North China, demand for Northeast corn has decreased. In the southern sales areas, the supply - demand contradiction will be alleviated. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, expected to fall first and then rise before the Spring Festival, with a low probability of breaking previous lows [1][9] 4. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Demand has boosted spot prices in the short term, but the futures market remains under pressure. - **Logic**: Supply pressure still exists in the short and medium term, but sow production capacity is expected to decrease in the long term, and demand is improving due to the approaching winter solstice. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - term contracts may be in a weak range, while far - term contracts are supported by production capacity reduction expectations [9] 5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The resistance at the pressure level is strong, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. - **Logic**: The market is in an oscillating pattern, with overseas supply increasing seasonally and demand being weak. - **Outlook**: Expected to continue oscillating, with no clear trend [13] 6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the adjustment strength and time. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after rising, but it may be the strongest among the three types of rubber. The raw material butadiene price has shown support. - **Outlook**: The futures market is temporarily considered to be oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the high - level resistance in late October [15] 7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Cotton prices will continue to be strong in the short term. - **Logic**: Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing seasonally, but policy expectations and low warehouse receipts have attracted capital inflows. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is a risk of correction; in the long term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy on dips [16] 8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of loose supply, sugar prices continue to fall. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, and the supply of new sugar is increasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the long term [16] 9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Futures prices are fluctuating, and spot prices are continuously falling. - **Logic**: There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors being more likely to be realized in the short term, and negative factors mainly related to long - term price transmission. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upwards [17] 10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Lack of driving force, with narrow - range fluctuations. - **Logic**: The market lacks clear upward or downward drivers, with stable prices in the short term and expected supply - demand adjustments in the medium term. - **Outlook**: Prices will be weakly stable [20] 11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are stabilizing, and futures prices are strengthening. - **Logic**: Supply pressure is gradually easing, and the futures market has certain support and game points. - **Outlook**: The market pattern remains loose, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage or long - position opportunities in far - term contracts [21] Commodity Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index on December 18, 2025, shows that the Commodity Index is 2272.81, up 0.44%; the Commodity 20 Index is 2604.10, up 0.53%; the Industrial Product Index is 2207.25, up 0.79%. - **Sector Index**: The Agricultural Product Index on December 18, 2025, is 915.35, with a daily decline of 0.35%, a 5 - day decline of 1.34%, a 1 - month decline of 0.94%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.12%. The PPI Commodity Index is 1367.53, up 0.65% [178][179]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import cost of soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside potential requires a larger - scale production reduction. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range. [3] - Palm oil's short - term inventory build - up may reverse in Q4 and Q1 next year. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the international sugar price may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. Domestic sugar prices are recommended for short - term observation. [10] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure. [13] - The near - term egg futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] - The near - term hog futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19] 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Wednesday. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons. Brazilian and Argentine main growing areas are expected to have more rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still high. [2] - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high but are entering the de - stocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [3] Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. December's first 15 - day exports decreased by 15.89% - 16.37%. Malaysia set the January palm oil reference price at 3946.17 ringgit per ton with an export tax rate of 9.5%. Domestic oils temporarily stopped falling on Wednesday. [5] - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia exceeded expectations, and export data is poor. However, the inventory build - up may reverse. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Brazilian mid - southern sugar production in the second half of November decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season and decrease in the 2026/27 season. [9] - **Strategy**: The new season's major sugar - producing countries are expected to increase production, and the global sugar market has shifted to a surplus. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended. [10] Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is estimated to be 26.08 million tons. [12] - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is not bad, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure, Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [13] Eggs - **Market Information**: Most egg prices in the country were stable yesterday, with a few areas rising. The supply is stable, and the market sales are okay. It's expected that most egg prices will be stable in the short term, with a few areas slightly stronger. [15] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mainly rose yesterday, with some areas stable or slightly falling. Some farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the demand for large hogs has increased after the temperature drop. [18] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Report author: Agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit and Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 7 | 30 | 244 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -23 | | 2025/12/12 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 8 | 30 | 238 | 2750 | 2820 | 179 | -23 | | 2025/12/15 | 2160 | 2270 | 2230 | 2430 | 42 | 10 | 253 | 2750 | 2820 | 192 | -21 | | 2025/12/16 | 2160 | 2240 | 2230 | 2420 | 20 | 30 | 252 | 2750 | 2800 | 203 | -21 | | 2025/12/17 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | - | 24 | - | - | 2750 | 2800 | 193 | - | | Change | 0 | -10 | 20 | - | 4 | - | - | 0 | 0 | -10 | - | [2] Market Analysis - **Corn**: This week, corn spot prices showed a differentiated trend, with port prices falling and production area prices fluctuating strongly. In the short term, the grain sales progress in the production area increased year-on-year, but the channel inventory was still at a moderately low level. Before the channel inventory officially accumulates, the spot is expected to remain strong. In the medium and long term, structural changes need to be focused on. Since the new grain was listed, there has been no expected concentrated selling pressure in the market. It is judged from the current market dynamics that more grain sources may be hoarded by middlemen, resulting in the postponement of short-term supply pressure. If the downstream consumption demand enters a seasonal decline channel in the future, and the grain sources hoarded by middlemen are released intensively, the market selling pressure may increase significantly, and the corn price may weaken periodically [3]. - **Starch**: In the short term, supported by seasonal consumption, the downstream replenishment demand drives enterprises to destock stably. At the same time, in an environment where raw material supply is limited, the industry's willingness to support prices intensifies, and the starch price is expected to remain stable. In the medium and long term, changes in the downstream consumption rhythm need to be focused on, which will be the key supporting factor for the price trend. After the seasonal peak season, whether the enterprise inventory will continue to destock will be the key factor for future starch pricing [3]. Group 3: Sugar Market Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | 2025/12/12 | 5460 | 5370 | 5295 | 246 | 139 | 318 | 2101 | | 2025/12/15 | 5450 | 5360 | 5295 | 243 | 177 | 356 | 2101 | | 2025/12/16 | 5420 | 5340 | 5260 | 287 | 188 | 367 | 2101 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [5] Market Analysis - **Sugar**: The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing successively. This week, the sugar factory quotations dropped rapidly, and the weak spot market drove the futures market down. In the short term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the futures pricing can still refer to the cost of domestic sugar and the spot price. In the medium and long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will seek the cost of out-of-quota imports downward. Pay attention to weather risks and policy changes [6]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Price Data | Date | 3128 Cotton | Imported M-grade US Cotton | Cotlook A (FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot Price | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 14630 | 73.7 | 74.2 | 1719 | 6552 | 2.53 | 21000 | 491 | -361 | | 2025/12/12 | 14630 | 73.5 | 74.0 | 1767 | 6817 | 2.53 | 20990 | 503 | -371 | | 2025/12/15 | 14690 | 73.4 | 73.9 | 1853 | 6956 | 2.53 | 20990 | 510 | -434 | | 2025/12/16 | 14715 | 73.5 | 73.9 | 1884 | 7221 | 2.53 | 20990 | 537 | -460 | | 2025/12/17 | 14715 | 72.6 | - | - | - | 2.53 | 20990 | 543 | -460 | | Change | 0 | -1 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | [9] Market Analysis - **Cotton**: The initial inventory is relatively low year-on-year, offsetting most of the increase in production. The focus is on subsequent consumption. Since the domestic textile production is still expanding and the recent profits are good, coupled with the good results of the China-US Busan talks and the mutual reduction of tariffs again, which is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports, the demand is expected to improve next year, and it is suitable for long-term long positions [9]. Group 5: Egg Market Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White-Feathered Broiler | Yellow-Feathered Broiler | Pig | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 460 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.62 | | 2025/12/12 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.11 | 510 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.50 | | 2025/12/15 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 3.11 | 490 | 3.62 | 3.65 | 17.40 | | 2025/12/16 | 3.02 | - | - | - | - | - | 3.62 | 3.65 | 17.40 | | 2025/12/17 | 3.02 | - | - | - | - | - | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.43 | | Change | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | [12] Market Analysis - **Eggs**: The inflection point of inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key driver for the future decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If the culling of laying hens accelerates, it will directly increase the downward slope of the inventory curve, which means that the process of capacity reduction will speed up. According to a survey in Hebei, the proportion of laying hens over 400 days old is currently about 10%-20%. Farmers still have expectations for the Spring Festival stocking market. If the spot price remains low before the Laba Festival, it is expected that this batch of chickens will be culled intensively, which is beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [12]. Group 6: Apple Market Price and Inventory Data | Date | Shandong 80 First and Second Grade | Shaanxi 70 General Goods | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | 719.79 | 270.48 | 201.85 | -759.00 | -605.00 | 410.00 | | 2025/12/12 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -841.00 | -619.00 | 432.00 | | 2025/12/15 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | -611.00 | -332.00 | 709.00 | | 2025/12/16 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | -606.00 | -229.00 | 749.00 | | 2025/12/17 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [15][16] Market Analysis - **Apples**: The national apple storage is basically over. According to data from the Shaanxi Fruit Service Center, the estimated national cold storage storage this year is about 55%, a decrease of more than 10% compared with last year, with an estimated storage volume of 7-7.8 million tons. Among them, the storage in Shaanxi is 50%-55%, a decrease of 10%-15% compared with last year; the storage in Gansu is 70%, a decrease of 20%-30% compared with last year; and the storage in Shandong is 50%, a decrease of 10% compared with last year. Currently, high-quality apples are scarce in the spot market, and the price difference between high-quality and low-quality apples is widening. Recently, the futures market follows the delivery logic and maintains a high-level shock. In the medium term, due to the large number of competing products on the consumption side, the futures market is expected to show a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness [16]. Group 7: Pig Market Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 11.38 | 11.35 | 11.37 | 11.75 | 11.80 | 160 | | 2025/12/12 | 11.38 | 11.40 | 11.52 | 11.90 | 12.00 | 55 | | 2025/12/15 | 11.43 | 11.60 | 11.62 | 12.05 | 12.10 | 125 | | 2025/12/16 | 11.43 | 11.55 | 11.52 | 11.95 | 12.05 | 80 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | [16] Market Analysis - **Pigs**: The spot price was strong over the weekend. Snowfall and cooling in the north, combined with the weekend effect, and the continuous increase in consumption in the south. As the Winter Solstice approaches, pay attention to the sustainability of the spot price rebound. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increasing before the Spring Festival, and there may still be a short-term supply-demand mismatch, but the near-term supply pressure is still large, waiting for the peak season to be tested. The improvement of capacity reduction has improved the long-term sentiment, but the market reaction is cautious. The improvement of the long-term expectation depends on the near-term capacity and inventory reduction. Continuously pay attention to whether there will be significant expected differences in the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies [16].

农产品早报 2025-12-12 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆小幅收涨，受出口需求支撑。周四国内豆粕现货涨 30 元，华东报 3040 元/吨，豆粕成交 一般、提货较好，消息面称通关延迟。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2120 | 2280 | 2210 | 2470 | -15 | 40 | 275 | 2700 | 2820 | 117 | -107 | | 2025/12/08 | 2170 | 2280 | 2220 | 2460 | 19 | 30 | 272 | 2700 | 2820 | 156 | -104 | | 2025/12/09 | 2170 | 2260 | 2230 | 2450 | 24 | 40 | 262 | 2750 | 2820 | 183 | -55 | | 2025/12/10 | 2170 | 2240 | 2224 | 2440 | -1 | 50 | 252 | 2750 | 2820 | 173 | -33 | | 2025/12/11 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 7 | 30 | 244 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -23 | | Change | -10 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 8 | -20 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | [2] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Corn prices are expected to remain strong as the downstream is in the seasonal restocking period and the reserve purchase policy has created a tight market. Starch prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints [3]. - **Long - term**: Corn prices may weaken if downstream demand falls seasonally and middlemen release their hoarded grain. For starch, the key factor for future pricing is whether the enterprise inventory will continue to decline after the seasonal peak [3]. Group 3: Sugar Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand Import Profit | Brazil Import Profit | Zhengzhou Futures Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 5505 | 5410 | 5370 | 202 | 258 | 438 | 183 | | 2025/12/08 | 5505 | 5410 | 5345 | 168 | 252 | 432 | 1671 | | 2025/12/09 | 5505 | 5410 | 5345 | 162 | 301 | 481 | 1886 | | 2025/12/10 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 152 | 204 | 384 | 2101 | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 25 | 24 | 0 | [4] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The spot price of sugar is weak, driving the futures price down. The futures price can still refer to the domestic sugar cost and spot price [4]. - **Long - term**: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price may decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data | Date | 3128 Cotton | Imported M - grade US Cotton | CotlookA(FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 14580 | 73.5 | 74.2 | 1647 | 5490 | 2.53 | 21020 | 488 | -289 | | 2025/12/08 | 14580 | - | 74.0 | 1688 | 5757 | 2.53 | 21020 | 491 | -289 | | 2025/12/09 | 14570 | - | 73.7 | 1725 | 6070 | 2.53 | 21020 | - | -278 | | 2025/12/10 | 14590 | 73.4 | 74.0 | 1712 | 6285 | 2.53 | 21020 | 508 | -299 | | 2025/12/11 | 14630 | - | - | - | 6552 | 2.53 | 21000 | 491 | -361 | | Change | 40 | - | - | - | 267 | 0 | -20 | -17 | -62 | [5] Market Analysis - New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the China - US meeting in Busan is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports, making long - term long positions in cotton suitable [5]. Group 5: Eggs Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Live Pigs | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.93 | 404 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.68 | | 2025/12/08 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.02 | 441 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.66 | | 2025/12/09 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.09 | 461 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.57 | | 2025/12/10 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.16 | 416 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.88 | | 2025/12/11 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 460 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.62 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 44.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | [8] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The speed of inventory decline depends on the culling rhythm. If farmers cull more hens before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter [8]. Group 6: Apples Price Data | Date | Shandong 80 First and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -655.00 | -739.00 | 366.00 | | 2025/12/08 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -644.00 | -606.00 | 423.00 | | 2025/12/09 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -645.00 | -565.00 | 438.00 | | 2025/12/10 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -718.00 | -610.00 | 420.00 | | 2025/12/11 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | 719.79 | 270.48 | 201.85 | -759.00 | -605.00 | 410.00 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | -41.00 | 5.00 | -10.00 | - | - | - | [13] Market Analysis - The national apple storage is basically completed. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year. The market has a shortage of high - quality apples. The futures price is in a high - level shock in the short - term, but the 05 contract is bearish in the medium - term due to many competing products in the consumption market [13]. Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 11.48 | 11.20 | 11.27 | 11.60 | 11.55 | 95 | | 2025/12/08 | 11.33 | 11.10 | 11.12 | 11.50 | 11.60 | -55 | | 2025/12/09 | 11.23 | 11.15 | 11.17 | 11.50 | 11.65 | -220 | | 2025/12/10 | 11.28 | 11.25 | 11.17 | 11.55 | 11.60 | -30 | | 2025/12/11 | 11.38 | 11.35 | 11.37 | 11.75 | 11.80 | 160 | | Change | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 190.00 | [13] Market Analysis - The live - pig spot price fluctuates on weekends with a supply - demand game. There may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch before the Spring Festival, but the supply pressure is still large. The improvement of the October production data has not fully boosted market sentiment, and factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies need to be monitored [13].

农产品早报 淀粉：短期看，受到季节性消费支撑，下游补库需求带动企业稳定去库。同时，在原料供应受限的环境下，加剧产业挺价意愿，淀粉价格预计 保持稳定。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续去化将成为未来 淀粉定价的关键因素。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/12/04 5525 5430 5380 197 255 435 183 2025/12/05 5505 5410 5370 202 258 438 183 2025/12/08 5505 5410 5345 168 252 432 1671 2025/12/09 5505 5410 5345 162 301 481 1886 2025/12/10 5480 5370 5340 152 204 384 2101 变化 -25 -40 -5 -10 -97 -97 215 【行情分析】： 白糖：国产新糖供应陆续增加，本周糖厂报价下调较快，现货弱势带动盘面下行。短期原糖供应压力减少，盘面定价仍可参考国产糖成本和现 货价格；中长期若全球 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 农产品早报 2025-12-09 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一 CBOT 大豆下跌，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本小幅下跌。周一国内豆粕现货跌 10 元，华东报 3010 元/吨，豆粕成交、提货均较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘 ...