Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import cost of soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside potential requires a larger - scale production reduction. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range. [3] - Palm oil's short - term inventory build - up may reverse in Q4 and Q1 next year. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the international sugar price may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. Domestic sugar prices are recommended for short - term observation. [10] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure. [13] - The near - term egg futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] - The near - term hog futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19] 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Wednesday. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons. Brazilian and Argentine main growing areas are expected to have more rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still high. [2] - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high but are entering the de - stocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [3] Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. December's first 15 - day exports decreased by 15.89% - 16.37%. Malaysia set the January palm oil reference price at 3946.17 ringgit per ton with an export tax rate of 9.5%. Domestic oils temporarily stopped falling on Wednesday. [5] - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia exceeded expectations, and export data is poor. However, the inventory build - up may reverse. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Brazilian mid - southern sugar production in the second half of November decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season and decrease in the 2026/27 season. [9] - **Strategy**: The new season's major sugar - producing countries are expected to increase production, and the global sugar market has shifted to a surplus. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended. [10] Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is estimated to be 26.08 million tons. [12] - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is not bad, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure, Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [13] Eggs - **Market Information**: Most egg prices in the country were stable yesterday, with a few areas rising. The supply is stable, and the market sales are okay. It's expected that most egg prices will be stable in the short term, with a few areas slightly stronger. [15] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mainly rose yesterday, with some areas stable or slightly falling. Some farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the demand for large hogs has increased after the temperature drop. [18] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Report author: Agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit and Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 7 | 30 | 244 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -23 | | 2025/12/12 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 8 | 30 | 238 | 2750 | 2820 | 179 | -23 | | 2025/12/15 | 2160 | 2270 | 2230 | 2430 | 42 | 10 | 253 | 2750 | 2820 | 192 | -21 | | 2025/12/16 | 2160 | 2240 | 2230 | 2420 | 20 | 30 | 252 | 2750 | 2800 | 203 | -21 | | 2025/12/17 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | - | 24 | - | - | 2750 | 2800 | 193 | - | | Change | 0 | -10 | 20 | - | 4 | - | - | 0 | 0 | -10 | - | [2] Market Analysis - **Corn**: This week, corn spot prices showed a differentiated trend, with port prices falling and production area prices fluctuating strongly. In the short term, the grain sales progress in the production area increased year-on-year, but the channel inventory was still at a moderately low level. Before the channel inventory officially accumulates, the spot is expected to remain strong. In the medium and long term, structural changes need to be focused on. Since the new grain was listed, there has been no expected concentrated selling pressure in the market. It is judged from the current market dynamics that more grain sources may be hoarded by middlemen, resulting in the postponement of short-term supply pressure. If the downstream consumption demand enters a seasonal decline channel in the future, and the grain sources hoarded by middlemen are released intensively, the market selling pressure may increase significantly, and the corn price may weaken periodically [3]. - **Starch**: In the short term, supported by seasonal consumption, the downstream replenishment demand drives enterprises to destock stably. At the same time, in an environment where raw material supply is limited, the industry's willingness to support prices intensifies, and the starch price is expected to remain stable. In the medium and long term, changes in the downstream consumption rhythm need to be focused on, which will be the key supporting factor for the price trend. After the seasonal peak season, whether the enterprise inventory will continue to destock will be the key factor for future starch pricing [3]. Group 3: Sugar Market Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | 2025/12/12 | 5460 | 5370 | 5295 | 246 | 139 | 318 | 2101 | | 2025/12/15 | 5450 | 5360 | 5295 | 243 | 177 | 356 | 2101 | | 2025/12/16 | 5420 | 5340 | 5260 | 287 | 188 | 367 | 2101 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [5] Market Analysis - **Sugar**: The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing successively. This week, the sugar factory quotations dropped rapidly, and the weak spot market drove the futures market down. In the short term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the futures pricing can still refer to the cost of domestic sugar and the spot price. In the medium and long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will seek the cost of out-of-quota imports downward. Pay attention to weather risks and policy changes [6]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Price Data | Date | 3128 Cotton | Imported M-grade US Cotton | Cotlook A (FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot Price | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 14630 | 73.7 | 74.2 | 1719 | 6552 | 2.53 | 21000 | 491 | -361 | | 2025/12/12 | 14630 | 73.5 | 74.0 | 1767 | 6817 | 2.53 | 20990 | 503 | -371 | | 2025/12/15 | 14690 | 73.4 | 73.9 | 1853 | 6956 | 2.53 | 20990 | 510 | -434 | | 2025/12/16 | 14715 | 73.5 | 73.9 | 1884 | 7221 | 2.53 | 20990 | 537 | -460 | | 2025/12/17 | 14715 | 72.6 | - | - | - | 2.53 | 20990 | 543 | -460 | | Change | 0 | -1 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | [9] Market Analysis - **Cotton**: The initial inventory is relatively low year-on-year, offsetting most of the increase in production. The focus is on subsequent consumption. Since the domestic textile production is still expanding and the recent profits are good, coupled with the good results of the China-US Busan talks and the mutual reduction of tariffs again, which is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports, the demand is expected to improve next year, and it is suitable for long-term long positions [9]. Group 5: Egg Market Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White-Feathered Broiler | Yellow-Feathered Broiler | Pig | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 460 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.62 | | 2025/12/12 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.11 | 510 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.50 | | 2025/12/15 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 3.11 | 490 | 3.62 | 3.65 | 17.40 | | 2025/12/16 | 3.02 | - | - | - | - | - | 3.62 | 3.65 | 17.40 | | 2025/12/17 | 3.02 | - | - | - | - | - | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.43 | | Change | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | [12] Market Analysis - **Eggs**: The inflection point of inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key driver for the future decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If the culling of laying hens accelerates, it will directly increase the downward slope of the inventory curve, which means that the process of capacity reduction will speed up. According to a survey in Hebei, the proportion of laying hens over 400 days old is currently about 10%-20%. Farmers still have expectations for the Spring Festival stocking market. If the spot price remains low before the Laba Festival, it is expected that this batch of chickens will be culled intensively, which is beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [12]. Group 6: Apple Market Price and Inventory Data | Date | Shandong 80 First and Second Grade | Shaanxi 70 General Goods | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | 719.79 | 270.48 | 201.85 | -759.00 | -605.00 | 410.00 | | 2025/12/12 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -841.00 | -619.00 | 432.00 | | 2025/12/15 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | -611.00 | -332.00 | 709.00 | | 2025/12/16 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | -606.00 | -229.00 | 749.00 | | 2025/12/17 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [15][16] Market Analysis - **Apples**: The national apple storage is basically over. According to data from the Shaanxi Fruit Service Center, the estimated national cold storage storage this year is about 55%, a decrease of more than 10% compared with last year, with an estimated storage volume of 7-7.8 million tons. Among them, the storage in Shaanxi is 50%-55%, a decrease of 10%-15% compared with last year; the storage in Gansu is 70%, a decrease of 20%-30% compared with last year; and the storage in Shandong is 50%, a decrease of 10% compared with last year. Currently, high-quality apples are scarce in the spot market, and the price difference between high-quality and low-quality apples is widening. Recently, the futures market follows the delivery logic and maintains a high-level shock. In the medium term, due to the large number of competing products on the consumption side, the futures market is expected to show a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness [16]. Group 7: Pig Market Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 11.38 | 11.35 | 11.37 | 11.75 | 11.80 | 160 | | 2025/12/12 | 11.38 | 11.40 | 11.52 | 11.90 | 12.00 | 55 | | 2025/12/15 | 11.43 | 11.60 | 11.62 | 12.05 | 12.10 | 125 | | 2025/12/16 | 11.43 | 11.55 | 11.52 | 11.95 | 12.05 | 80 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | [16] Market Analysis - **Pigs**: The spot price was strong over the weekend. Snowfall and cooling in the north, combined with the weekend effect, and the continuous increase in consumption in the south. As the Winter Solstice approaches, pay attention to the sustainability of the spot price rebound. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increasing before the Spring Festival, and there may still be a short-term supply-demand mismatch, but the near-term supply pressure is still large, waiting for the peak season to be tested. The improvement of capacity reduction has improved the long-term sentiment, but the market reaction is cautious. The improvement of the long-term expectation depends on the near-term capacity and inventory reduction. Continuously pay attention to whether there will be significant expected differences in the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies [16].

农产品早报 2025-12-12 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆小幅收涨，受出口需求支撑。周四国内豆粕现货涨 30 元，华东报 3040 元/吨，豆粕成交 一般、提货较好，消息面称通关延迟。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2120 | 2280 | 2210 | 2470 | -15 | 40 | 275 | 2700 | 2820 | 117 | -107 | | 2025/12/08 | 2170 | 2280 | 2220 | 2460 | 19 | 30 | 272 | 2700 | 2820 | 156 | -104 | | 2025/12/09 | 2170 | 2260 | 2230 | 2450 | 24 | 40 | 262 | 2750 | 2820 | 183 | -55 | | 2025/12/10 | 2170 | 2240 | 2224 | 2440 | -1 | 50 | 252 | 2750 | 2820 | 173 | -33 | | 2025/12/11 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 7 | 30 | 244 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -23 | | Change | -10 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 8 | -20 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | [2] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Corn prices are expected to remain strong as the downstream is in the seasonal restocking period and the reserve purchase policy has created a tight market. Starch prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints [3]. - **Long - term**: Corn prices may weaken if downstream demand falls seasonally and middlemen release their hoarded grain. For starch, the key factor for future pricing is whether the enterprise inventory will continue to decline after the seasonal peak [3]. Group 3: Sugar Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand Import Profit | Brazil Import Profit | Zhengzhou Futures Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 5505 | 5410 | 5370 | 202 | 258 | 438 | 183 | | 2025/12/08 | 5505 | 5410 | 5345 | 168 | 252 | 432 | 1671 | | 2025/12/09 | 5505 | 5410 | 5345 | 162 | 301 | 481 | 1886 | | 2025/12/10 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 152 | 204 | 384 | 2101 | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 25 | 24 | 0 | [4] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The spot price of sugar is weak, driving the futures price down. The futures price can still refer to the domestic sugar cost and spot price [4]. - **Long - term**: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price may decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data | Date | 3128 Cotton | Imported M - grade US Cotton | CotlookA(FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 14580 | 73.5 | 74.2 | 1647 | 5490 | 2.53 | 21020 | 488 | -289 | | 2025/12/08 | 14580 | - | 74.0 | 1688 | 5757 | 2.53 | 21020 | 491 | -289 | | 2025/12/09 | 14570 | - | 73.7 | 1725 | 6070 | 2.53 | 21020 | - | -278 | | 2025/12/10 | 14590 | 73.4 | 74.0 | 1712 | 6285 | 2.53 | 21020 | 508 | -299 | | 2025/12/11 | 14630 | - | - | - | 6552 | 2.53 | 21000 | 491 | -361 | | Change | 40 | - | - | - | 267 | 0 | -20 | -17 | -62 | [5] Market Analysis - New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the China - US meeting in Busan is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports, making long - term long positions in cotton suitable [5]. Group 5: Eggs Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Live Pigs | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.93 | 404 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.68 | | 2025/12/08 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.02 | 441 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.66 | | 2025/12/09 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.09 | 461 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.57 | | 2025/12/10 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.16 | 416 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.88 | | 2025/12/11 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 460 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.62 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 44.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | [8] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The speed of inventory decline depends on the culling rhythm. If farmers cull more hens before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter [8]. Group 6: Apples Price Data | Date | Shandong 80 First and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -655.00 | -739.00 | 366.00 | | 2025/12/08 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -644.00 | -606.00 | 423.00 | | 2025/12/09 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -645.00 | -565.00 | 438.00 | | 2025/12/10 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -718.00 | -610.00 | 420.00 | | 2025/12/11 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | 719.79 | 270.48 | 201.85 | -759.00 | -605.00 | 410.00 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | -41.00 | 5.00 | -10.00 | - | - | - | [13] Market Analysis - The national apple storage is basically completed. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year. The market has a shortage of high - quality apples. The futures price is in a high - level shock in the short - term, but the 05 contract is bearish in the medium - term due to many competing products in the consumption market [13]. Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 11.48 | 11.20 | 11.27 | 11.60 | 11.55 | 95 | | 2025/12/08 | 11.33 | 11.10 | 11.12 | 11.50 | 11.60 | -55 | | 2025/12/09 | 11.23 | 11.15 | 11.17 | 11.50 | 11.65 | -220 | | 2025/12/10 | 11.28 | 11.25 | 11.17 | 11.55 | 11.60 | -30 | | 2025/12/11 | 11.38 | 11.35 | 11.37 | 11.75 | 11.80 | 160 | | Change | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 190.00 | [13] Market Analysis - The live - pig spot price fluctuates on weekends with a supply - demand game. There may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch before the Spring Festival, but the supply pressure is still large. The improvement of the October production data has not fully boosted market sentiment, and factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies need to be monitored [13].

农产品早报 淀粉：短期看，受到季节性消费支撑，下游补库需求带动企业稳定去库。同时，在原料供应受限的环境下，加剧产业挺价意愿，淀粉价格预计 保持稳定。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续去化将成为未来 淀粉定价的关键因素。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/12/04 5525 5430 5380 197 255 435 183 2025/12/05 5505 5410 5370 202 258 438 183 2025/12/08 5505 5410 5345 168 252 432 1671 2025/12/09 5505 5410 5345 162 301 481 1886 2025/12/10 5480 5370 5340 152 204 384 2101 变化 -25 -40 -5 -10 -97 -97 215 【行情分析】： 白糖：国产新糖供应陆续增加，本周糖厂报价下调较快，现货弱势带动盘面下行。短期原糖供应压力减少，盘面定价仍可参考国产糖成本和现 货价格；中长期若全球 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 农产品早报 2025-12-09 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一 CBOT 大豆下跌，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本小幅下跌。周一国内豆粕现货跌 10 元，华东报 3010 元/吨，豆粕成交、提货均较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘 ...

转自：内蒙古日报 本报12月7日讯 （记者 李永桃）记者从自治区价格监测和认定中心获悉：11月份，全区生猪出场价格、 鸡蛋出场价格小幅下降。 （来源：内蒙古日报） 11月份，全区生猪平均出场价格为630.42元/50公斤，环比下降1.59%，较上月收窄7.19个百分点，同比 下降28.12%。受鸡蛋需求淡季影响，11月份，鸡蛋库存处于高位，出场价格延续前期下降走势，全区 每50公斤鸡蛋平均出场价格为307.29元，环比下降8.57%，同比下降35.9%。 专家分析指出，从供应端看12月份生猪供应预计继续增加。12月份鸡蛋市场供应压力将减小，需求有所 走强，预计我区鸡蛋出场价格企稳回升。 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Views - Corn prices will remain strong in the short - term due to low supply and downstream restocking demand, and may start a new upward cycle in the medium - to - long term after the release of farmers' selling pressure [3] - Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for medium - to - long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic supply is loose, but the short - term downward space is limited [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as new cotton production is estimated to decline and the external environment for textile exports has improved [8] - The future decline rate of egg inventory depends on the culling rhythm, and the culling rhythm has slightly accelerated in the past two weeks [11] - Apple prices are short - term bearish as the market is well - stocked and good - quality goods are scarce after a recent rally [16] - For pigs, there are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is still large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16] 3. Summary of Each Product Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, corn prices in some regions changed (e.g.,锦州 up 10), and the corn basis decreased by 18, while the import profit increased by 26. Starch basis decreased by 28, and processing profit decreased by 20 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are strong due to supply shortage and restocking demand; starch prices are under pressure from high inventory [3] Sugar - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, sugar prices in some regions decreased (e.g.,柳州 down 20), and the basis increased by 18 [6] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by policies than the foreign market, and in the long - term, domestic sugar costs may be impacted by imported sugar. Maintain a high - short strategy [7] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 496 [8] - **Market Analysis**: New cotton production is expected to decline, and the external environment for textile exports has improved, making it suitable for long - term long positions [8] Eggs - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, egg prices in some regions remained stable or decreased slightly (e.g.,湖北 down 0.06), and the basis increased by 7 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The egg inventory inflection point has appeared, and the future decline rate depends on the culling rhythm, which has slightly accelerated recently [11] Apples - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, apple prices remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 1.00 [15][16] - **Market Analysis**: The national apple storage is basically completed, with a lower storage rate than last year. The market is short - term bearish [16] Pigs - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis increased by 155 [16] - **Market Analysis**: There are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16]

研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/04 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | 淀粉 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/27 | 2070 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | -3 | 50 | 260 | 2700 | 2850 | 133 | -9 | | 2025/11/28 | 2090 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | -4 | 45 | - | 2700 | 2850 | 139 | -29 | | 2025/12/01 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | 4 | 45 | - | 2700 | 2850 | 163 | -47 | | 2025/12/02 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2430 | -3 | 35 | - | 2700 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, due to the relatively high level compared to the previous year, it is not enough to generate a highly profitable CBOT soybean futures planting profit situation. In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. [3] - The new global soybean production has been marginally lowered, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [5] - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains high production, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not prosperous before, the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices has digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force, and with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. In the short - term, there is a resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium - term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and with the end of seasonal stocking, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] - The theoretical slaughter volume of pigs remains large, the completion rate of the slaughter plan of large - scale farms is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight is still high year - on - year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small farmers are slowly being released. The supply pressure remains, and there is still an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand is tepid, and only sporadic bacon - making activities have occurred in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated within a narrow range, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 2990 yuan/ton. Soybean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week, mainly due to high crushing volume, and the apparent consumption was flat week - on - week. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 89% of the expected area. The USDA predicted that the global soybean supply - demand pattern would shift from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, and the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio had dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently. [3] - **Strategy**: In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [3][5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, increased by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days. [7] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5460 - 5550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 78 yuan/ton. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield rate at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year; sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year. [12] - **Strategy**: It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13800 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14980 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1180 yuan/ton. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. [16] - **Strategy**: The probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price in the main production areas was flat at 3.06 yuan/jin, the price in Heishan was flat at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.04 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders had little confidence in the future market, the inventory in the production link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair. [20] - **Strategy**: The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with the mainstream price decreasing. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 11.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan was flat at 11.44 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume of farmers increased gradually, but the demand increase was relatively limited, the market sales speed slowed down, and today farmers may reduce prices to sell, and the pig price may decline. [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24]