Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward in the coming week, supported by technical indicators and liquidity metrics [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock index for the CSI 300 was 0.30, indicating higher liquidity than the average level over the past year by 0.30 standard deviations [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.85, reflecting a reduced caution among investors regarding short-term movements [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.82% and 1.40%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates saw weekly increases of 0.15% and 0.25%, respectively [2]. - The official manufacturing PMI for China in May was reported at 49.5, matching expectations, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI was lower at 48.3 [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke through the SAR point on June 4, signaling a buy opportunity, with the moving average strength index scoring 207, placing it in the 81.6% percentile since 2021 [2][3]. Market Performance - For the week of June 2 to June 6, the SSE 50 index rose by 0.38%, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.88%, the CSI 500 index grew by 1.6%, and the ChiNext index surged by 2.32% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.2 times, which is in the 52.3% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Analysis - Small-cap factors performed well, with a crowding degree of 1.05, while low valuation factors had a crowding degree of 0.06 [3]. - The industry crowding degree is relatively high in machinery, comprehensive, retail, environmental protection, and beauty care sectors, with notable increases in beauty care and banking [3].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a volatile upward trend led by small and mid-cap stocks after the holiday [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 0.13, lower than the previous week (1.13), indicating current market liquidity is 0.13 standard deviations above the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 1.15, up from 0.94 the previous week, reflecting rising caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.76% and 1.30%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity, positioned at the 50.17% and 63.97% percentile since 2005 [2]. Macro Factors - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates showing weekly declines of -0.08% and -0.48%, respectively [2]. - The US stock market showed a volatile upward trend, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices posting weekly returns of 1.6%, 1.88%, and 2.01% respectively [2]. - The US core PCE price index rose by 2.5% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [2]. Real Estate Sector - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 enterprises from January to May 2025 reached 405.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, with the growth rate expanding by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke below the SAR reversal indicator on May 23, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 160, positioned at the 64.8% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The market has not yet formed a bottom, as the moving average strength index has not shown a significant decline [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of May 26 to May 30, the SSE 50 index fell by 1.22%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08%, while the CSI 500 index rose by 0.32% and the ChiNext index dropped by 1.4% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 18.9 times, positioned at the 50.5% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor and Industry Observations - Factor crowding remains stable, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.98, low valuation factor crowding at 0.11, high profitability factor crowding at -0.28, and high growth factor crowding at -0.04 [3]. - The industry crowding is relatively high in machinery, comprehensive, retail, environmental protection, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with transportation and non-ferrous metals showing significant increases in crowding [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its consolidation next week, influenced by technical indicators and upcoming holiday-related risk aversion among investors [1][2]. Market Analysis - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.13 on Friday, lower than the previous week (2.63), indicating current market liquidity is 1.13 times above the average level of the past year [2]. - The put-call ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.94 from 1.03, suggesting a decline in investor caution regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.85% and 1.40%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity, positioned at the 58.47% and 68.54% percentiles since 2005 [2]. Macro Factors - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates increasing by 0.2% and 0.52%, respectively [2]. - Historical data shows that from May 2005 onwards, the probability of the SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index rising in the latter half of May was 45%, 45%, 50%, and 47%, with average gains of -0.1%, -0.02%, 0.67%, and 1.71% [2]. Event-Driven Factors - The US stock market experienced a downward trend last week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices reporting weekly returns of -2.47%, -2.61%, and -2.47%, respectively [2]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan for May, marking the third consecutive month of increased liquidity [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke below the SAR point on May 23, but the moving average strength index remains above average, indicating no bottoming pattern has emerged [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 154, positioned at the 62.5% percentile since 2021 [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of May 19-23, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.18%, the CSI 300 index also decreased by 0.18%, the CSI 500 index dropped by 1.1%, and the ChiNext index declined by 0.88% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.0 times, which is at the 50.6% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observations - The crowding degree for low valuation factors has decreased, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.91, low valuation factor crowding at 0.25, high profitability factor crowding at -0.23, and high profitability growth factor crowding at -0.03 [3]. - Industry crowding is relatively high in machinery equipment, comprehensive, retail, environmental protection, and automotive sectors, while transportation and non-ferrous metals sectors have seen a significant increase in crowding [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the upcoming week, influenced by historical trends and current market indicators [1][2]. - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was reported at 2.63, indicating that current market liquidity is 2.63 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 1.03, reflecting a reduced level of caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. Group 2 - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and the Wind All A Index were 0.89% and 1.45%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity compared to historical levels [2]. - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates increasing by 0.59% and 0.42%, respectively [2]. - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, significantly lower than the consensus expectation of 764.44 billion and the previous value of 3.64 trillion [2]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus expectation of 7.54% and the previous value of 7% [2]. Group 3 - Historical data shows that the probability of major A-share indices rising in the latter half of May is relatively low, with the SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index having average increases of -0.1%, -0.02%, and 1.71%, respectively [2]. - The Wind All A Index recently broke through the SAR reversal indicator on April 21, indicating a potential upward trend [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 209, placing it in the 82.9 percentile since 2021 [2]. Group 4 - The A-share market experienced a recovery last week, with the SSE 50 Index rising by 1.22%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.38% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.0 times, which is at the 51.2 percentile since 2005 [3]. - The factor crowding metrics indicate a stable environment, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.91 and low valuation factor crowding at 0.53 [3].

Quantitative Factors and Their Construction 1. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Construction Idea**: The small-cap factor measures the performance of stocks with smaller market capitalization, which historically tend to outperform larger-cap stocks under certain market conditions [17][18] - **Construction Process**: The factor's crowding level is calculated using four indicators: valuation spread, pairwise correlation, long-term return reversal, and factor volatility. These indicators are combined into a composite score to assess the degree of crowding [18] - **Evaluation**: The small-cap factor showed a positive crowding level, indicating relatively strong performance and lower risk of factor failure [19] 2. Factor Name: Low-Valuation Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor identifies stocks with lower valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book ratios, which are expected to generate higher returns over time [17][18] - **Construction Process**: Similar to the small-cap factor, the low-valuation factor's crowding level is assessed using the same four indicators (valuation spread, pairwise correlation, long-term return reversal, and factor volatility) and combined into a composite score [18] - **Evaluation**: The low-valuation factor exhibited a slightly negative crowding level, suggesting moderate underperformance or potential risks of factor inefficiency [19] 3. Factor Name: High-Profitability Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor targets stocks with strong profitability metrics, such as high return on equity (ROE) or net profit margins, which are often associated with stable and superior returns [17][18] - **Construction Process**: The factor's crowding level is calculated using the same methodology as the small-cap and low-valuation factors, combining the four indicators into a composite score [18] - **Evaluation**: The high-profitability factor showed a negative crowding level, indicating potential underperformance or risks of factor inefficiency [19] 4. Factor Name: High-Growth Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on stocks with high growth rates in earnings or revenues, which are expected to deliver higher returns in growth-oriented market environments [17][18] - **Construction Process**: The high-growth factor's crowding level is also derived from the four indicators (valuation spread, pairwise correlation, long-term return reversal, and factor volatility) and combined into a composite score [18] - **Evaluation**: The high-growth factor exhibited the most negative crowding level among the factors analyzed, indicating significant underperformance and a higher risk of factor failure [19] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Small-Cap Factor - **Valuation Spread**: 1.74 [19] - **Pairwise Correlation**: -0.32 [19] - **Market Volatility**: -0.38 [19] - **Return Reversal**: 1.43 [19] - **Composite Score**: 0.62 [19] 2. Low-Valuation Factor - **Valuation Spread**: -0.33 [19] - **Pairwise Correlation**: 0.05 [19] - **Market Volatility**: 0.15 [19] - **Return Reversal**: -0.29 [19] - **Composite Score**: -0.10 [19] 3. High-Profitability Factor - **Valuation Spread**: -1.23 [19] - **Pairwise Correlation**: -0.05 [19] - **Market Volatility**: 0.28 [19] - **Return Reversal**: -0.44 [19] - **Composite Score**: -0.36 [19] 4. High-Growth Factor - **Valuation Spread**: -2.04 [19] - **Pairwise Correlation**: 0.08 [19] - **Market Volatility**: -0.65 [19] - **Return Reversal**: -1.02 [19] - **Composite Score**: -0.91 [19]