证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 07 日 央行继续增持黄金，但短期金银仍需谨慎 ——1 月外汇储备数据传递的信号 核心观点 2026 年 1 月我国官方外汇储备 33990.78 亿美元，环比增加 412.09 亿美元，但资 产价格均对本月储备形成负向拖累。站在当前时间点，从短期维度看，金银均面 临潜在的流动性冲击与风险偏好切换带来的扰动。但从中长期维度看，我们延续 黄金强于白银的判断。在操作层面，我们更倾向于将波动率回落作为再度增配的 关键观察指标。若黄金隐含波动率（黄金 VIX）从高位回落并进入相对稳定区 间，通常意味着流动性冲击缓释、市场定价更趋有序，黄金的风险收益特征将明 显改善，届时黄金的中期投资机会更值得把握。 ❑ 1 月外储继续环比回升，但资产价格均对本月储备形成负向拖累 2026 年 1 月我国官方外汇储备 33990.78 亿美元，环比增加 412.09 亿美元，但资 产价格本月有所下行。 从结构来看，汇率对本月储备影响为负向贡献。其一，美元指数继续回落，2026 年 1 月美元指数由 2025 年 12 月底的 98.27 下行 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 期货行情： 2026-02-05，沪铜主力合约开于 104000元/吨，收于 100980元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-3.97%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 100,430元/吨，收于 101,430 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降1.43%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货均价贴水70元/吨，较前日上涨30元/吨，铜价区间100260~102020元/吨。期 铜早盘下探后回升，收盘101100元/吨。市场流通货源持续偏紧，持货商挺价意愿强烈，好铜、平水铜贴水报价均 逐步收窄，日内采销情绪小幅回暖。尽管后续进口货源预计将小幅补充市场，但受持货商惜售及部分货源备货交 割影响，现货供应仍显紧张。综合来看，预计明日现货贴水有望继续小幅收敛。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，自2026年2月9日（星期一）收盘结算时起，涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例调整如下，国际铜 期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整 为12%。此外，隔夜美股集体走弱，市场流动性或再受到冲击，铜价亦受到一定影响。 矿端方 ...

【弘则FICC李晓曈】A股下跌点评：流动性冲击下的普跌 今天A股的下跌压力主要来自黄金带崩有色板块+流动性和情绪影响下的资产普跌，即贵金属"多头爆仓式"的急跌 行情下机构基于补充保证金诉求而被迫卖出其他资产，美股、有色金属、新兴市场股指等前期浮盈盘较为丰厚且 交易相对拥挤的市场皆被殃及。 交易层面，短期流动性冲击力度不宜低估，先以避险思维看待，减仓或者空IC作为IF多头头寸的对冲保护，同时 观察金属板块波动率作为情绪信号。 不过考虑到1月以来"国家队降温"对A股一致性做多情绪已经构成削弱，A股相比其他资产或有更强的安全垫；且中 周期而言，A股比价配置优势犹在，沃什上台对因子端驱动（海外制造业对出海营收的指引）有情绪层面的削弱 （市场从激进做多转向观望），但尚不足以构成逻辑层面的反转，建议保留指数底仓，26年A股维持牛市思维不 变。 今天A股的下跌压力主要来自黄金带崩有色板块+流动性和情绪影响下的资产普跌，即贵金属"多头爆仓式"的急跌 行情下机构基于补充保证金诉求而被迫卖出其他资产，美股、有色金属、新兴市场股指等前期浮盈盘较为丰厚且 交易相对拥挤的市场皆被殃及。 交易层面，短期流动性冲击力度不宜低估，先以避险思 ...

Group 1 - The volatility in gold and silver has caused significant disruptions in the commodity market, leading to liquidity shocks and margin calls among institutional investors, which in turn resulted in a sharp decline in the stock market [1] - The ongoing sell-off in precious metals reflects a combination of technical and emotional pressures, as noted by a strategist from Singapore [1] - Despite a price pullback, there remains a high sensitivity to the movements of the US dollar, yield repricing, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 2 - Passive selling related to margin calls and triggered stop-loss orders has further exacerbated the downward trend in precious metal prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that gold futures remained stable with a total of 103,029 kilograms in warehouse receipts, while the market experienced significant fluctuations in gold prices on January 30, 2023, with a notable decline of 4.71% by the end of the trading day [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold futures opened at 1,246.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,251.28 CNY and a low of 1,140.00 CNY during the day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the price settled at 1,162.42 CNY per gram, reflecting a decrease of 4.71% [1] - Trading volume was reported at 894,024 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 24,521 contracts to a total of 211,820 contracts [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The initial surge in gold prices was driven by heightened risk aversion, but a subsequent decline occurred due to liquidity shocks from falling tech stocks [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) results were in line with expectations, suggesting that short-term policy impacts have been fully priced in [1] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, and the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on comprehensive tariffs contribute to increased market uncertainty, which is generally favorable for gold [1]

金价再创新高，众声喧哗，但问题只有一个——2026年还值得买入吗，还是该撤退观望，这不是玄学， 是历史给出的试卷，而我们得交出答案， 1980年的那一跌，是教科书级别的警示金价从850美元直坠到440美元，跌去近半壁江山，这不是偶然， 而是货币政策与政治风险交织的合谋，那一年沃尔克上台，利率像火箭一样窜到天上，实际收益率飙 升，黄金这种不生息的东西，立刻从投资者心头跌落，机构抛售，美元吸金，避险情绪消退，金价被按 在地上摩擦，短期断崖，随后进入长达数十年的阴跌期，这是因果，不是运气， 回过头看，那场熊市的长期根源在于美国经济的回春，通胀被压下，股市走牛，美元强势，资本找到了 更有回报的去处，黄金只能做储备和饰品的角色，科技革命的浪潮把资金吸走，90年代末甚至出现央行 联合抛售，金价跌到多年低点，这说明一个简单而残酷的事实当风险偏好回升，避险资产被边缘化，黄 金就会被冷落， 2008年又一次给人当头棒喝，金融体系恐慌时，最令人大跌眼镜的是——连黄金都被卖了，机构为了流 动性，抛售一切可变现的资产，金价短期下挫近三成，随后美联储放水，如同注入补药，黄金又被唤回 市场怀抱，这是一出先抛售以渡难关，后因货币放松而获救 ...

12月29日，上周，贵金属市场在假期交投清淡的背景下，上演了一轮令人瞩目的"冲顶"行情。现货黄金 在上周五表现强劲，单日收涨1.17%，盘中最高触及4549美元/盎司，再度刷新历史最高纪录。 本周，随着圣诞节假期结束，市场将迎来元旦假期。在此期间，重点关注于几个核心事件：北京时间周 四凌晨公布的美联储12月货币政策会议纪要，这将为市场理解其内部政策考量提供关键线索；此外，市 场对美联储未来的降息预期以及持续紧张的地缘政治局势，仍将是主导金价短期情绪与方向的关键因 素。 周一（12月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位持稳，开盘后小幅走高，不过随后跳水。毕竟当价格持续脱 离传统定价框架时，市场正逐渐从"趋势狂欢"进入"多空博弈"的敏感阶段。当前金价的走势，已不能简 单用单一因素解释。它是由货币政策、地缘政治、市场结构三大核心引擎驱动，并与估值泡沫风险、流 动性冲击两大潜在风险激烈角力的结果。 另外，本轮行情一个标志性特征是白银的领涨。白银价格因市场规模小、工业需求旺盛而更具投机性， 近期单日涨幅可达10%。这种极致涨幅极大地提振了整个贵金属板块的风险偏好和比价效应，吸引了增 量资金进入，也反过来牵引黄金价格上行。 从 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking a 30-year high and the first rate hike in 11 months since January 2025 [1][4] - The Japanese government plans to increase income tax rates by 1 percentage point for all income brackets starting January 2027, with the additional revenue aimed at meeting defense needs [1][4] - The market had already priced in the interest rate hike, and the Bank of Japan's decision was made with a unanimous 9-0 vote [2][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the terminal interest rate for the Bank of Japan may be around 1%-1.5%, with potential rate hikes in 2026 [4] - The Japanese Finance Minister indicated that the next fiscal year's budget will consider fiscal sustainability, aiming to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to boost market confidence [4] - The anticipated tax changes are expected to result in a revenue decrease of 650 billion yen, higher than the previous estimate of 400 billion yen [4] Group 3 - The liquidity impact from the interest rate hike is expected to be less severe than in the past due to the closure of active "carry trade" positions [6] - Concerns about the "AI bubble" in the U.S. stock market may amplify the effects of Japan's rate hike on global liquidity [6][7] - Despite potential liquidity shocks, the long-term trend of global monetary easing is expected to continue, with a favorable outlook for A-shares and strategic positioning in gold [7]

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 最近，日本央行行长放了话，将提高日本利率，从0.5%上升到0.75%。 并且还说，希望在利率升至0.75%后，进一步阐明未来的加息路径。 换句话说，日本这是要 持续的加息了。为什么日本在这个时候加息呢？他们不是声称提振经济吗？加息怎么提振经济？ 一、不可能三角 这个世界上有很多不可能三角，正所谓鱼和熊掌不可兼得。今年早些时候，日本就计划要通过扩张财政来提振经济。财政扩张就意味着日本政府要 大规模举债。 我们知道日本政府的债务规模可一点不小！继续扩张债务规模，一定会让市场担心日本政府能不能如期还钱。 也就是说，当债务规模过大时， 主权信用就会受到影响。反映到国债利率上就会持续上升，现在日本长债利率已经是迭创新高了。 这就会使得日本政府未来要偿还的利息越来越多！ 日本政府就不想降低国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The correlation between gold prices and the Nasdaq index has increased since November, raising concerns about deeper underlying risks, despite liquidity shocks in the money market not being the primary cause [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since November, gold and Nasdaq have shown multiple instances of simultaneous increases and decreases, indicating a rising correlation between a risk asset and a safe-haven asset [2][3]. - For example, on November 4, the Nasdaq fell by 2% while gold dropped by 1.8%, and on November 10, the Nasdaq rose by 2.3% alongside a 2.8% increase in gold [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The tightening of the money market and rising funding rates are not likely the main reasons for the observed trends, as liquidity pressures have eased following the resolution of government shutdowns [6][10]. - The underlying driver appears to be concerns over Federal Reserve tightening amid recovery expectations, which often leads to unified movements in major asset classes [7][10]. Group 3: Historical Context - An analysis of the correlation between gold and the Nasdaq throughout the year reveals that their relationship has fluctuated based on economic conditions and Federal Reserve expectations [8]. - In early 2023, trade tensions and recession fears led to a divergence between gold and Nasdaq, while in the third quarter, both benefited from lower interest rate expectations, resulting in increased correlation [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent simultaneous movements of gold and Nasdaq may not indicate a deeper liquidity crisis, and such trends may not persist long-term [10]. - Future attention should be directed towards fundamental data; if improvements are confirmed, gold prices may face upward resistance while overall risks in the U.S. stock market remain low [10].