12月29日，上周，贵金属市场在假期交投清淡的背景下，上演了一轮令人瞩目的"冲顶"行情。现货黄金 在上周五表现强劲，单日收涨1.17%，盘中最高触及4549美元/盎司，再度刷新历史最高纪录。 本周，随着圣诞节假期结束，市场将迎来元旦假期。在此期间，重点关注于几个核心事件：北京时间周 四凌晨公布的美联储12月货币政策会议纪要，这将为市场理解其内部政策考量提供关键线索；此外，市 场对美联储未来的降息预期以及持续紧张的地缘政治局势，仍将是主导金价短期情绪与方向的关键因 素。 周一（12月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位持稳，开盘后小幅走高，不过随后跳水。毕竟当价格持续脱 离传统定价框架时，市场正逐渐从"趋势狂欢"进入"多空博弈"的敏感阶段。当前金价的走势，已不能简 单用单一因素解释。它是由货币政策、地缘政治、市场结构三大核心引擎驱动，并与估值泡沫风险、流 动性冲击两大潜在风险激烈角力的结果。 另外，本轮行情一个标志性特征是白银的领涨。白银价格因市场规模小、工业需求旺盛而更具投机性， 近期单日涨幅可达10%。这种极致涨幅极大地提振了整个贵金属板块的风险偏好和比价效应，吸引了增 量资金进入，也反过来牵引黄金价格上行。 从 ...

那么，影响究竟有多大呢？ 日本动了！ 12月19日午间，日本央行宣布，将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，符合市场预期。利率水平创30年来新高，这也是2025年1月以后，日本央行11个月来再次进行加 息。 除了加息之外，另一个消息更值得重视。据彭博社消息，日本税改方案最终草案显示，自民党及其执政联盟伙伴维新会将同意从2027年1月起，将所有收入阶层的 所得税税率提高1个百分点。新增税收将用于满足日本的防务需求。 去年7月日本加息导致较大的流动性冲击。西部证券曹柳龙认为，主要是因为两个原因：一是大量活跃的"套息套汇"平仓引发流动性冲击；二是美国衰退交易则放大 流动性冲击。而当前最活跃的"套息套汇交易"基本已经平仓，日元加息导致流动性冲击的前提条件已经弱化。 不过，当前以美股为代表的全球股市已经6年"大水牛"，本身就有脆弱性，同时美国"AI泡沫论"的担忧又起，资金避险情绪较重，日元加息有可能成为诱发全球流动 性冲击的"催化剂"。这种流动性冲击大概率会倒逼美联储QE，所以全球股市很有可能会快速修复。 日本加息很难直接导致全球流动性冲击，但美股"AI泡沫论"担忧可能会放大日本加息的影响。因此，投资者很难预测全球是否 ...

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 最近，日本央行行长放了话，将提高日本利率，从0.5%上升到0.75%。 并且还说，希望在利率升至0.75%后，进一步阐明未来的加息路径。 换句话说，日本这是要 持续的加息了。为什么日本在这个时候加息呢？他们不是声称提振经济吗？加息怎么提振经济？ 一、不可能三角 这个世界上有很多不可能三角，正所谓鱼和熊掌不可兼得。今年早些时候，日本就计划要通过扩张财政来提振经济。财政扩张就意味着日本政府要 大规模举债。 我们知道日本政府的债务规模可一点不小！继续扩张债务规模，一定会让市场担心日本政府能不能如期还钱。 也就是说，当债务规模过大时， 主权信用就会受到影响。反映到国债利率上就会持续上升，现在日本长债利率已经是迭创新高了。 这就会使得日本政府未来要偿还的利息越来越多！ 日本政府就不想降低国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The correlation between gold prices and the Nasdaq index has increased since November, raising concerns about deeper underlying risks, despite liquidity shocks in the money market not being the primary cause [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since November, gold and Nasdaq have shown multiple instances of simultaneous increases and decreases, indicating a rising correlation between a risk asset and a safe-haven asset [2][3]. - For example, on November 4, the Nasdaq fell by 2% while gold dropped by 1.8%, and on November 10, the Nasdaq rose by 2.3% alongside a 2.8% increase in gold [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The tightening of the money market and rising funding rates are not likely the main reasons for the observed trends, as liquidity pressures have eased following the resolution of government shutdowns [6][10]. - The underlying driver appears to be concerns over Federal Reserve tightening amid recovery expectations, which often leads to unified movements in major asset classes [7][10]. Group 3: Historical Context - An analysis of the correlation between gold and the Nasdaq throughout the year reveals that their relationship has fluctuated based on economic conditions and Federal Reserve expectations [8]. - In early 2023, trade tensions and recession fears led to a divergence between gold and Nasdaq, while in the third quarter, both benefited from lower interest rate expectations, resulting in increased correlation [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent simultaneous movements of gold and Nasdaq may not indicate a deeper liquidity crisis, and such trends may not persist long-term [10]. - Future attention should be directed towards fundamental data; if improvements are confirmed, gold prices may face upward resistance while overall risks in the U.S. stock market remain low [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that market downturns, such as the recent global stock market decline, present investment opportunities rather than risks, particularly through asset allocation strategies [2][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Global stock markets experienced significant declines, with A-shares showing relatively better resilience [2]. - The article highlights the phenomenon of "liquidity shock," where different asset classes experience simultaneous declines, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical instances, such as the 2020 market crash during the pandemic, illustrate that liquidity crises often lead to government and central bank interventions, which can create favorable buying opportunities [5][11]. - The article references past market behaviors, noting that significant downturns often precede recoveries driven by policy actions [8][17]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - The article argues that temporary failures in asset allocation strategies during market downturns should be viewed as opportunities to increase positions rather than risks [12][19]. - It stresses the importance of maintaining consistent investment strategies, particularly during adverse market conditions, to capitalize on future recoveries [14][18]. Group 4: Investor Guidance - For investors already engaged in asset allocation, increasing positions or investment amounts is recommended to enhance potential returns [22]. - New investors are encouraged to start asset allocation now, as it is seen as an optimal time to enter the market [22]. - Investors holding single assets should diversify to balance risk and return [22].

Economic Activity - Overall economic activity in the U.S. has shown little change, with some regions reporting slight to moderate growth, while others indicate stagnation or slight decline [1] - The labor market remains stable, but demand is generally weak across most Federal Reserve districts [1][2] Inflation and Costs - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are contributing to rising inflation, with companies struggling to absorb costs or pass them on to consumers [2][6] - Consumer spending has slightly decreased, particularly in retail, as inflation and economic uncertainty lead to a divergence in spending across income groups [2][7] Labor Market Trends - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with stable employment levels but low demand for labor across various sectors [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is expected to lead to a gradual decrease in monthly job additions, stabilizing around 8,000 by mid-next year [3] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has initiated a preventive rate cut to counteract employment slowdown, with expectations of further cuts in the coming months [5][8] - The current monetary policy environment is characterized by uncertainty, with potential for more aggressive rate cuts depending on economic data and political pressures [9][10] Future Economic Outlook - The probability of a recession in the U.S. is currently estimated at around 30%, with risks including the negative impact of tariffs on growth and inflation [3][4] - The Fed's actions and the political landscape, particularly with upcoming elections, may influence future monetary policy and economic stability [10]

Group 1: Copper Market - The threat of US tariffs has resurfaced, causing a liquidity shock that led to a decline in copper prices, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [2][3] - Recent disturbances in the supply of copper from the world's second-largest copper mine and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts previously pushed LME copper prices to $11,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices to over ¥88,000 per ton [2][3] - On November 1, 2025, the US will impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, which has heightened market risk aversion and led to significant liquidation of long positions, resulting in a 4.5% drop in both Shanghai and LME copper prices [2][3] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is also experiencing a decline due to the renewed threat of US tariffs and liquidity shocks [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 0.68% to ¥2,930 per ton, while the main futures contract for alumina fell by 4.62% to ¥2,806 per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased by 10.15% to 651,000 tons, but the demand season is expected to lead to a destocking cycle, with potential price recovery once liquidity shocks ease [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium prices are expected to rebound from the bottom as demand enters a destocking cycle during the peak season [4][5] - The price of lithium carbonate remains stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium spodumene has decreased by 2.21% to $839 per ton [4][5] - The production of lithium carbonate has increased by 0.6% to 20,600 tons, and inventory has decreased by 1.5% to 134,800 tons [4][5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will implement a cobalt export quota system, which is expected to accelerate price increases [6] - The price of cobalt has risen by 4.19% to $19.90 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.87% to ¥359,000 per ton [6] - The DRC's cobalt export quota for the period from October 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,100 tons, which is expected to significantly narrow the surplus and potentially lead to a shortage [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent drop in copper and aluminum prices is a short-term liquidity shock due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, but the long-term upward trend for copper remains intact [5] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight to shortage due to frequent supply disruptions and the U.S. entering a monetary easing cycle [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper among others for potential investment opportunities [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has raised market risk aversion [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.44% compared to the index's 0.37% [11][12] - The report notes that copper, magnetic materials, and rare earths performed well, while copper materials and cobalt lagged behind [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 27.81, with a weekly change of 2.98 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.33, reflecting a change of 0.36 [21] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.89%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.37% [26] - The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, with a loss of 2738 yuan/ton [26] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.09%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.61% [38] - The report notes that aluminum smelting margins improved to 5133 yuan/ton [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable at 73550 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 2.21% to 839 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium smelting margins are negative, with losses reported [74] 7. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 4.19% to 19.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 2.87% to 359000 yuan/ton [87] - The report highlights that cobalt supply may tighten due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [87]

Market Overview - The market is expected to continue its upward trend next week, with the liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index at 0.77, lower than the previous week's 1.26, indicating current market liquidity is 0.77 standard deviations above the average level over the past year [2] - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options has increased to 0.80 from 0.66, reflecting a rise in investor caution regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2] - The average turnover rates for the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A are at 1.47% and 2.25%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity compared to historical levels [2] Economic Indicators - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates saw weekly increases of 0.66% and 0.68%, respectively [2] - The official manufacturing PMI for China in August was reported at 49.3, slightly below the previous value of 49.7 but above the consensus expectation of 49.25; the S&P Global China Manufacturing PMI was at 50.5, up from 49.5 [2] Technical Analysis - The SAR indicator for the Wind All A index has shown a downward breakout, while the sentiment model has issued a negative signal [2] - The moving average strength index currently scores 211, placing it in the 77.0% percentile for 2023 [2] - The sentiment model score is at 0 (out of 5), indicating a negative trend signal [2] Market Performance - For the week of September 1-5, the SSE 50 index fell by 1.15%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.81%, and the CSI 500 index dropped by 1.85%, while the ChiNext index rose by 2.35% [3] - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 21.9 times, which is in the 73.9% percentile since 2005 [3] Factor Analysis - The small-cap factor's congestion level remains stable at 0.68, while the low valuation factor is at -0.66, and the high profitability factor is at -0.23 [4] - The high profitability growth factor has a congestion level of 0.25 [4] Industry Analysis - The congestion levels for the comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, power equipment, and machinery equipment industries are relatively high, with notable increases in the congestion levels for power equipment and comprehensive sectors [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US employment market has increased the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. The support and resistance levels for London gold are around $3150 - 3250 and $3500 - 3700 respectively; for Shanghai gold, they are around 730 - 760 and 800 - 850 respectively; for London silver, they are around $34 - 38 and $37 - 40 respectively; for Shanghai silver, they are around 8500 - 8700 and 9100 - 9500 respectively [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 781.42, trading volume was 206379.00, open interest was 214105.00, inventory (in ten - gram units) was 2547.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was 1.72 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: Trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 26258.00, open interest was 208048.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 9192.00, trading volume was 513898.00, open interest was 371051.00, inventory (in ten - gram units) was 1157291.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 40.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: Trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 270788.00, open interest was - 36146.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 3435.00, trading volume was 176453.00, open interest was 340930.00, inventory (in troy ounces) was 38800719.69 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 9052.00, trading volume was - 222180.00, open interest was 109684.00, inventory (in troy ounces) was 506602108.72 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: Price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was $3380.05 per ounce, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, iShare Gold ETF holdings were 449.31 tons [1] - **London Silver Spot**: Price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was $38.13 per ounce [1] - **Gold - Silver Price Ratio**: New York futures ratio was 91.56, London spot ratio was 90.37 [1] Important Information - The US Treasury plans to issue a large amount of debt this week, including $1000 billion in four - week Treasury bills, $850 billion in eight - week Treasury bills, $650 billion in 17 - week Treasury bills, $580 billion in three - year Treasury bonds, $420 billion in ten - year Treasury bonds, and $250 billion in 30 - year Treasury bonds. It has hinted that it will rely more on debt issuance to fill the fiscal deficit until at least 2026 [1] - The US July ISM Services PMI was only 50.1, with the employment index contracting and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours [1] - The US Treasury may issue about $5000 billion in the third quarter to replenish the cash account, which may cause a liquidity shock. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the US consumer - end inflation rates in June. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the number of new non - farm payrolls from May to July or far lower - than - expected figures, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December [1] - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the market expects the ECB to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June and continued to reduce its holdings of £1000 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK June CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The July S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing (Services) PMI was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. Due to the consecutive negative monthly GDP growth rates from April to June, the expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England on August 7 has increased, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from ¥4000 billion to ¥2000 billion in April 2026. The Japan (Tokyo) June (July) core CPI annual rate was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value (lower than expected and the previous value), so there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the weakening US employment market increasing the Fed rate - cut expectation and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]