Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - With Trump's remarks, market risk sentiment has slightly eased and the liquidity shock has slightly reversed. Gold prices are expected to be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near term, but there is still upward room in the medium to long term. The Au2606 contract may fluctuate between 960 yuan/gram and 1060 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also showing signs of stabilization and are expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The Ag2606 contract may fluctuate between 17100 yuan/kilogram and 18100 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Market Analysis - Geopolitically, Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the ceasefire plan. The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power plants, oil wells, etc. if no agreement is reached. Iran said it would cause a power outage in the region if its power facilities are attacked. Iran's foreign ministry said it has not had direct negotiations with the US and the so - called "15 - point ceasefire plan" is "excessive and unreasonable" [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On March 30, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 993.46 yuan/gram, closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram, a 1.62% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1011.48 yuan/gram, a 0.33% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17080.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 17707.00 yuan/kilogram, a 1.25% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1060304 lots and the open interest was 233885 lots. In the night session, it opened at 17949 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17679 yuan/kilogram, a 0.16% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 30, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.352%, a +0.40BP change from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.526%, a +0.81BP change from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On March 30, 2026, in the Au2606 contract, the long position changed by 9544 lots and the short position changed by 3787 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 505475 lots, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2606 contract, the long position changed by 2123 lots and the short position changed by 8930 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1592496 lots, an 8.38% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,049.56 tons, a decrease of 3.14 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,288 tons, a decrease of 121 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 30, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 6.70 yuan/gram and the domestic silver premium was - 37.09 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 57.32, a 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 65.34, a - 1.04% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 91148 kilograms, a - 4.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 294236 kilograms, a - 31.79% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [53]. Core Insights - Precious Metals - Gold: Liquidity shocks are gradually easing, stabilizing gold prices. As of March 27, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4489.7 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.05% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.9% decrease to 1053 tons. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is intensifying, but the decline in gold prices is slowing down. It is anticipated that as market expectations regarding the Middle East situation converge, liquidity shocks in the gold market will further ease. In the medium term, geopolitical issues will elevate inflation expectations abroad, deepen U.S. fiscal problems, and weaken the dollar's credit status, maintaining the long-term pricing framework for gold. The report remains optimistic about the medium to long-term trend of gold prices [4]. - Industrial Metals: Geopolitical disturbances are intensifying, leading to volatile performance in industrial metals. As of March 27, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 1.26% to 95930 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 427,400 tons as of March 26, while LME copper inventory stood at 360,000 tons. The global copper resource bottleneck is expected to persist. With the Middle East situation escalating and interest rate hike expectations rising, industrial metals are under short-term pressure [5][6]. - Aluminum: As of March 27, the SHFE aluminum futures contract fell by 0.4% to 23935 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 1.349 million tons as of March 26, with a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons. The geopolitical situation has become the largest black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions of millions of tons and increasing smelting costs. The report notes that while supply and demand expectations are converging, macroeconomic impacts remain strong, leading to a decline in aluminum prices [6]. - Tin: As of March 27, the SHFE tin futures contract rose by 5.8% to 362,500 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory reached 9,102 tons, while LME tin inventory was 8,720 tons. The demand side is expected to benefit from the growth in tin consumption due to the expansion of AI technology. However, short-term market sentiment is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, necessitating further clarity on the geopolitical situation [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are stabilizing as liquidity shocks ease, with a current price of $4489.7 per ounce and a slight decrease in ETF holdings [4]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 1.26% to 95930 yuan per ton, with ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical pressures affecting performance [6]. - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.4% to 23935 yuan per ton, with geopolitical tensions impacting supply and demand dynamics [6]. - Tin prices rose by 5.8% to 362,500 yuan per ton, with demand expected to grow due to AI technology [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, it recommends关注赤峰黄金; for copper,关注洛阳钼业; and for aluminum,关注天山铝业, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and demand recovery as key factors [7][49].

Group 1 - The recent A-share market has experienced strong liquidity shocks, but the overall funding situation does not indicate significant risks, as both financing and private equity are in profit with a high safety margin [1][4][29] - The A-share market is expected to have limited room for further declines, with key observation signals for a potential bottom being the timing of substantial actions from capital market stabilization mechanisms [1][4] - The average cost of financing funds during bull markets has been estimated, indicating that the current A-share index is above this cost line, suggesting that financing remains profitable [6][10][12] Group 2 - The recent trend shows continued net outflows from ETFs, with significant inflows only observed on March 23, primarily in broad index ETFs like the CSI 300 [5][15][20] - Important institutional investors have not yet entered the market, as indicated by the lack of significant changes in trading volume and patterns typically associated with their participation [18][20] - The narrative surrounding the potential return of Middle Eastern funds to the Chinese market is seen as a long-term probability, but short-term verification remains elusive, with various data sources providing inconsistent signals [24][27][30] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with small-cap growth and value stocks performing better, while larger indices like the North Star 50 and tech leaders have underperformed [31][32] - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, have influenced market dynamics, leading to increased volatility and sector-specific performance variations [31][32] - The chemical sector has seen price increases driven by rising oil prices and supply chain constraints, with specific products experiencing significant price hikes [48][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Night trading of precious metals weakened. The ongoing stalemate in the US - Iran conflict, the rebound of crude oil prices, and the decline in market risk appetite put pressure on precious metals. The core drivers of this precious metal adjustment are the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process. Gold has a long - term upward trend, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with relatively larger fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For沪金2606, the previous day's closing price was 1013.96, yesterday's was 995.98, with a decline of 17.98 and a drop rate of 1.77%. For沪金2604, the previous day's closing price was 1011.04, yesterday's was 992.96, with a decline of 18.08 and a drop rate of 1.79%. For沪银2606, the previous day's closing price was 18111, yesterday's was 17472, with a decline of 639 and a drop rate of 3.53%. For沪银2604, the previous day's closing price was 18174, yesterday's was 17519, with a decline of 655 and a drop rate of 3.60% [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2606 were 170696, and the trading volume was 291301. The positions of沪金2604 were 28789, and the trading volume was 83441. The positions of沪银2606 were 219990, and the trading volume was 775118. The positions of沪银2604 were 37336, and the trading volume was 54014 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2606 and沪金2604 were - 6.21 and - 3.19 respectively. The spot premiums of沪银2606 and沪银2604 were - 180 and - 227 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1014.44, yesterday's was 989.77, with a decline of 24.67 and a drop rate of - 2.43%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 4505.31, yesterday's was 4381.91, with a decline of 123.40 and a drop rate of - 2.74%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 18121, yesterday's was 17292, with a decline of 829 and a drop rate of - 4.57%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 71.18, yesterday's was 68.09, with a decline of 3.09 and a drop rate of - 4.34% [2]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The current value of沪金2606 - 沪金2604 was 3.02, and the previous value was 2.92. The current value of沪银2606 - 沪银2604 was - 47.00, and the previous value was - 63.00. The current value of the gold/silver (spot) ratio was 57.24, and the previous value was 55.98. The current and previous values of the Shanghai Gold/London Gold ratio were both 1.02. The current value of the Shanghai Silver/London Silver ratio was 1.14, and the previous value was 1.15 [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 106,743 kg. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased by 5795 kg to 370,299 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 39160 ounces to 31,906,473 ounces. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 293420 ounces to 328,547,950 ounces [2]. 3.4 Related Derivatives - **Market Indicators**: The current value of the US dollar index was 99.90, an increase of 0.26 from the previous value. The current value of the S&P 500 index was 6,477.16, a decrease of 114.74 from the previous value. The current yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.42%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous value. The current price of Brent crude oil was 100.10, an increase of 2.04 from the previous value. The current US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.9041, an increase of 0.0064 from the previous value [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF was 1,052.7 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF was 15,409.5 tons, a decrease of 104.2 tons from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 3263 to 159,869, and the net position in silver decreased by 2697 to 21,881 [2]. 3.5 Macro News - **Military Deployment**: The Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East to provide more military options for Trump during peace talks with Iran. These troops may include infantry and armored vehicles and will join about 5000 Marines and thousands of paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Division already deployed in the region [3]. - **Ship Incident**: A Thai - flagged cargo ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and ran aground near Iran's Qeshm Island [3]. - **Political Statements**: An Iranian source said Trump's remarks about Iran's "big gift" were political posturing. Iran and the countries of the ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz have formed a bilateral consensus on the "safe route" [4]. - **Peace Negotiations**: Iran has not asked the US to suspend attacks on its energy facilities and has not made a final response to the 15 - point cease - fire plan. The possibility of a successful cease - fire is still low [5]. - **Strike Delay**: Trump postponed the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, Eastern Time [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are oscillating and consolidating. Trump's signal of conflict mitigation, the decline in crude oil prices, and the repair of risk appetite have driven the rebound of precious metals. The core drivers of this precious metal adjustment are the downward revision of interest rate cut expectations and the double suppression of liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the continuous process of de - dollarization. Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with relatively larger fluctuations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金 2606 and 沪金 2604), yesterday's closing prices were 1013.96 and 1011.040 respectively, with price increases of 34.16 and 33.760, and price increase rates of 3.49% and 3.45%. The trading volumes were 317182 and 139575, and the open interests were 169532 and 40987. - For silver futures (沪银 2606 and 沪银 2604), yesterday's closing prices were 18111 and 18174 respectively, with price increases of 1026 and 979, and price increase rates of 6.01% and 5.69%. The trading volumes were 967928 and 110528, and the open interests were 214737 and 47438 [2] Spot Market - For gold spot (上海黄金 T + D), yesterday's closing price was 1014.44, with a price increase of 36.45 and a price increase rate of 3.73%. For London gold, yesterday's closing price was 4505.31, with a price increase of 33.29 and a price increase rate of 0.74%. - For silver spot (上海白银 T + D), yesterday's closing price was 18121, with a price increase of 955 and a price increase rate of 5.56%. For London silver, yesterday's closing price was 71.18, with a price decrease of 0.10 and a price decrease rate of - 0.14% [2] Inventory - The current inventory of gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 106,743 kilograms, with no change from the previous value. The current inventory of silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 376,094 kilograms, an increase of 10171 kilograms from the previous value. The COMEX silver inventory is 331,451,807 troy ounces, a decrease of 638687 troy ounces from the previous value [2] Related Derivatives - The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF is 1,052.4 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 15,513.7 tons, with no change from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 159,869, a decrease of 3263 from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 21,881, a decrease of 2697 from the previous value [2] Macro Information - There are multiple geopolitical events related to the Iran - US conflict, including statements from Iranian and US officials regarding cease - fire proposals, negotiation possibilities, and military actions. For example, Iran has put forward five conditions for a cease - fire, and the US has made various statements about the end of the war and negotiation plans [3]

Market Overview - During the week of March 13-20, 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a rise in oil prices by 8.77%, while gold prices fell by 9.54%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 11 basis points to 4.39% due to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, which significantly reduced expectations for interest rate cuts[3] Gold Price Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to liquidity shocks rather than a trend reversal, as gold prices initially rose with geopolitical tensions but then fell in sync with equity markets[10] - If oil prices rise above $90 per barrel in the next two quarters, the U.S. may face significant inflation risks, constraining monetary easing[11] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve raised its inflation growth forecast for 2026 during the March 18 meeting, indicating a likelihood of only one rate cut this year, with no cuts expected in the first half of 2027[14] - Market expectations as of March 21, 2026, suggest that the Fed will not cut rates in 2026 or the first half of 2027[14] Investment Sentiment - Speculative long positions in gold have been liquidated, while allocation funds have just begun to reduce their positions, indicating a cautious market sentiment[31] - Historical analysis shows that after significant declines in gold prices (greater than 10%), there is no clear trend in subsequent price movements over the following weeks or months[34] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price volatility may not reflect long-term trends, and there are risks of deeper-than-expected economic recessions in Europe and the U.S.[5] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and hawkish Fed stance contribute to a liquidity crisis that negatively impacts gold prices[37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, precious metals are under adjustment pressure due to the high - oil - price tail risk, and the core pricing logic revolves around the evolution of the US - Iran conflict, the release of economic recession panic, and the rhythm of liquidity repair. It is recommended to wait and not blindly bottom - fish before the US stock market stabilizes [3]. - The global economic outlook uncertainty intensifies, and industrial demand expectations decline. Silver, platinum, and palladium are affected by macro - level industrial demand suppression in the short term, with silver having greater retracement pressure due to more concentrated leveraged funds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts: The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has increased the security pressure in the Gulf region, threatening the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz. It has pushed up international oil price fluctuations, increased the risk of global inflation rebound, and led to a typical cost - push inflation. This has forced central banks to maintain high interest rates, delaying interest rate cuts, weakening economic growth momentum, and increasing recession concerns. Precious metals have short - term support due to hedging demand, but risk assets are under pressure [4]. - Monetary policy environment: During the "Super Central Bank Week", most central banks, except the Reserve Bank of Australia, maintained interest rates unchanged, sending a hawkish signal. The Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices and inflation risks. Central banks have listed energy supply disruptions as a key risk, raising inflation expectations. The Fed's interest rate cut times have been reduced to 1 this year, and the timing has been postponed to the second half of the year. The European and British central banks are not considering easing for now, and the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual tightening path. Precious metals and risk assets are under pressure [4]. 3.2 ETF Position Tracking - Gold ETF: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased to 1056.99 tons, with a reduction of 14.57 tons during the week, indicating a decline in investors' physical allocation demand for gold [8]. - Silver ETF: The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased to 15248.9 tons, with a reduction of 211.28 tons during the week, showing a decline in investors' physical allocation demand for silver [9]. 3.3 Exchange Inventory - Gold exchange inventory: The report mentions the gold exchange inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [38]. - Silver exchange inventory: The report mentions the silver exchange inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [43]. 3.4 Domestic and International Futures - Spot Price Differences The report mentions the domestic and international futures - spot price differences, but no specific data analysis is provided [52]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios The report mentions precious metal ratios, but no specific data analysis is provided [60]. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index - The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is 35.25, at the 94.8% level of the past - year historical percentile, up from 32.31 last Friday. The Shanghai Gold main - contract at - the - money implied volatility is 37.05%, at the 96.81% level of the past - year historical percentile, up from 25.56 last Friday. The Shanghai Silver main - contract at - the - money implied volatility is 72.12%, at the 84.86% level of the past - year historical percentile, down from 77.56% last Friday [7][65][69][72].

Group 1: Global Asset Pricing Assumptions - The report identifies that global assets reflect liquidity shocks, with the Russell 2000 and CSI 200 indices showing declines of 8.2% and 8.3% respectively since the first trading day of March[12] - Concerns about long-term high oil prices are evident, with Brent crude oil futures rising 8.77% to $112.19 per barrel, prompting fears of sustained high pricing[19] - The U.S. PPI data for February exceeded expectations, with a core PPI month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reinforcing constraints on interest rate cuts[12] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The report estimates March's actual GDP year-on-year growth at 4.78% and nominal GDP at 5.99%, with first-quarter actual and nominal GDP expected at 5.06% and 5.48% respectively[12] - The CPI is projected to show slight positive month-on-month growth, while the PPI is expected to exceed 0.6% month-on-month[12] - The report highlights a significant increase in the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September to 6.1% as of March 20, indicating a shift in market expectations[22] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - The MSCI developed markets index fell by 2.1%, while emerging markets saw a slight decline of 0.1%[17] - The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones indices recorded declines of 2.07%, 2.11%, and 1.90% respectively, reflecting a cautious market sentiment amid geopolitical tensions[17] - The report notes that the A-share market showed resilience, with the ChiNext index rising against the trend of declines in other markets[16] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices fell by 9.56% to approximately $4,562.55 per ounce, while silver dropped 13.53% to $72.37 per ounce, indicating a significant market reaction to rising interest rates[19] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, closing at 99.51, while the euro and pound showed signs of appreciation against the dollar[22] - The report indicates that the copper price fell by 7.1%, averaging $11,834.50 per ton, reflecting a broader trend of declining industrial metals[21]

Group 1 - The article discusses the implicit pricing assumptions behind global assets, focusing on liquidity shocks, recession risks, and stagflation pricing [1][2][3] - It highlights that the U.S. corporate bond market remains active despite liquidity shocks, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are declining, indicating economic sensitivity [1] - The article notes that the current market does not fully reflect recession pricing, as evidenced by rising bond yields and the resilience of technology stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The article explains that asset pricing reflects stagflation risks, with oil prices indicating inflation and industrial metals indicating stagnation [2] - It mentions that major equity markets are showing characteristics typical of a "stagflation" environment, with energy and utility sectors leading [2] - The article emphasizes that current market expectations suggest a more significant change in Federal Reserve policy, impacting real interest rates and gold performance [2] Group 3 - The article describes a "repair trade" in the market, where geopolitical conclusions are not seen as fixed, allowing for potential asset recovery [3] - It summarizes that the market is pricing in liquidity shocks as a primary theme, with "micro-stagflation" characteristics and some recession risks included [3] - The article indicates that Chinese assets are showing independent logic amidst global market fluctuations, with A-shares outperforming [4][6] Group 4 - The article details the performance of global equity markets, noting that European markets are under more pressure than U.S. markets, with significant declines in indices like the DAX and FTSE 100 [5] - It highlights that the Japanese market is experiencing the most significant declines among major asset classes, influenced by geopolitical tensions [5] - The article also discusses the divergence in commodity prices, with oil prices rising and precious metals declining, reflecting liquidity shock pricing [6] Group 5 - The article outlines the pressure on global bond markets, with rising yields and increased volatility, particularly in U.S. Treasuries [7] - It notes that the market is pricing in a potential delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations shifting towards maintaining rates [7][12] - The article emphasizes the independent strength of the Chinese yuan amidst global fluctuations, with a stable appreciation trend [8] Group 6 - The article discusses the impact of rising oil prices on Chinese industrial profits, indicating a slight positive contribution to overall profits but with a concentration towards upstream energy sectors [27][34] - It highlights that the petrochemical industry will see varied impacts, with upstream sectors benefiting while downstream sectors face profit erosion [34] - The article concludes that the overall profit distribution will favor upstream energy companies due to rising oil prices [34]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant downturn after a period of continuous rise, with both gold and silver prices plummeting due to liquidity shocks and tightening policy expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On March 20, domestic gold and silver futures saw substantial declines, with gold dropping nearly 4% to a low of 1002 yuan, marking the lowest point since early January, while silver fell over 6% to around 16100 yuan, the lowest in three months [1][2]. - The trading volume for silver reached 1.13 million contracts, with open interest decreasing to 219,000 contracts, indicating significant capital outflow [2]. - Night trading on March 20 saw further declines, with gold closing at 1016.12 yuan per gram and silver at 17139 yuan per kilogram [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts attribute the recent drop in gold and silver prices to a combination of tightening liquidity and a hawkish shift in global monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has also shifted, with signals of de-escalation reducing the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for precious metals remains bearish in the short term, with prices expected to remain under pressure until there is a clear improvement in macroeconomic and liquidity conditions [6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified between 1000 and 1020 yuan per gram, while silver is monitored between 17000 and 17500 yuan per kilogram [6]. - Analysts suggest that the previous upward trend driven by "safe-haven + inflation" logic is weakening, and a new pricing framework has yet to emerge [7].