Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for short positions in CNY CFETS index and short SGDNEER basket, suggesting a bearish outlook on these currencies [3][4]. Core Insights - Asian economies show limited evidence of diversifying away from US assets, primarily due to low domestic yields and growth concerns [1][2]. - Malaysia, Singapore, China, and India exhibit signs of increased USD FX hedging and asset diversification, while Japan sees foreign inflows into its assets [1][2][28]. - The report highlights that Singapore and Hong Kong have the highest US asset holdings as a percentage of GDP, indicating significant room for diversification [5][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Diversification Potential - Singapore and Hong Kong lead in US asset holdings relative to GDP, followed by Taiwan, Japan, and Korea [5][6]. - China’s US asset holding is relatively low at 12% of GDP when accounting for indirect holdings [5][6]. Section 2: Willingness to Diversify - China is diversifying its reserves by increasing gold holdings, now at nearly 6% of total reserves, but has not sold US treasuries [11][13]. - Taiwan's central bank holds over 80% of its FX reserves in US treasuries, indicating confidence in these assets despite potential diversification [18][19]. - Korea's National Pension Service plans to increase international asset exposure to 60% by 2028, showing no intent to repatriate assets [25][26]. Section 3: Market Observations - Malaysia's government is guiding a shift towards domestic asset allocation, with EPF reducing overseas exposure [34][35]. - Singapore's large US asset holdings are supported by its status as a financial hub, with signs of month-end repatriation flows [38][39]. - India's central bank emphasizes gold accumulation for reserve diversification amid geopolitical uncertainties [47][48]. Section 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The report notes a shift in international investors' preferences from long-duration to short-duration US treasuries, contributing to a steepening of the UST curve [59][60]. - Malaysia's foreign currency deposit ratio has increased, indicating a trend towards domestic investments [55][57].

智通财经APP获悉，多年来，对于伦敦、巴黎和东京的投资者来说，买入美元、并将所得资金投入标普 500指数和纳斯达克指数一直是一种稳赚不赔的交易。美国股市的回报率不仅远高于英国、法国和日本 国内股市的回报率，而且美元的稳步升值也进一步放大了投资收益。 然而，当美国总统特朗普发起全球贸易战后，这一交易突然崩溃，投资者的痛苦迅速加剧。今年以来， 标普500指数下跌6%，而以欧元和日元计算回报的投资者损失却扩大到14%。交易瓦解的速度之快，加 上白宫反复无常的政策，让那些长期以来将美国视为"终极避险地"和"超额回报来源"的投资者感到极度 不安。巴黎Natixis Wealth Management首席投资官Benoit Peloille直言："这是双重打击。你同时在股票和 货币上蒙受损失。" 即使特朗普在关税政策上表现出了让步的姿态，但过去一个月的市场动荡也向许多外国投资者暴露了将 这么多资金投入美国资产的风险。他们中的许多人如今正急于在美国股票投资组合中增加外汇对冲。数 据显示，截至去年12月，这部分资产规模约为18万亿美元，占美国股市总市值的近五分之一。 摩根士丹利和美国银行均表示，近期越来越多的客户正在购买美元 ...