自特朗普重返总统职位以来，美国首次降息成为本周全球金融市场的焦点。从周三的加拿大央行与美联 储，到周四的英国央行，再到周五的日本央行，主要央行将接连调整借贷成本、或释放政策信号，为今 年最后一个季度定调。 到本周末，涉及全球经济总量五分之二的利率（其中包括七国集团中四个主要经济体）将被重新设定或 确认。其中，美国备受特朗普白宫期待的降息，预计将成为重头戏。 美联储与特朗普的博弈 美联储政策僵局依旧，特朗普持续呼吁大幅降息，而美联储主席鲍威尔则担心关税推升的通胀风险。不 过，近期劳动力市场疲软的迹象为市场普遍预计的25个基点降息提供了理由。 彭博经济学家点评称："我们预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将降息25个基点。原因并非经济数据 在物价稳定与充分就业两方面均发出信号，而是市场已有预期，白宫也在施压。鲍威尔认为，这是抵御 更多对美联储独立性威胁的必要之举。" 与此同时，加拿大和挪威的央行也预计会采取同样幅度的降息。但其他发达经济体央行的动作可能更加 谨慎。英国央行在8月降息后预计本次将维持利率不变；日本央行则依旧走在收紧货币政策的道路上， 但尚未释放近期加息信号。印尼、巴西和南非等主要新兴经济体央行则大概率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America anticipates significant capital inflows into emerging markets at the beginning of next year, driven by a shift of funds away from U.S. assets [1] Group 1: Emerging Market Outlook - Emerging markets are showing resilience, leading to expectations of increased capital inflows [1] - Optimism is expected to rise as the impact of trade tensions is perceived to be limited [1] - Even small-scale diversified investment flows from the U.S. could have a substantial effect on emerging markets [1] Group 2: Investment Drivers - Factors contributing to the positive outlook for emerging markets include a weaker dollar, potential for further interest rate cuts by central banks, and historically low allocation of global funds to emerging markets [1] - Key beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows are identified as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland [1]

钛媒体App 9月13日消息，美国银行表示，随着越来越多的迹象显示新兴经济体具备韧性，明年年初新 兴市场可能将迎来更大规模资金流入，而这将推动资金进一步从美国资产转移。"人们将在明年年初变 得更加乐观，因为他们会确认贸易紧张局势对经济的影响将是有限的。"美国银行全球新兴市场固定收 益策略主管David Hauner表示。他认为，这一资产类别将受益于美元走弱、各地央行仍有进一步降息的 空间，以及全球基金对新兴市场的历史性低配。（广角观察） ...

每经AI快讯，9月12日，秘鲁央行降息25个基点，将基准利率降至4.25%。 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is expected to strengthen in the next year due to the Bank of Canada's potential limited rate cuts and anticipated interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve, which may stimulate the Canadian economy [1][2] - The median forecast indicates that the CAD will appreciate by 1.4% in three months to 1.36 CAD per USD, and by 2.8% in twelve months to 1.3415 CAD per USD [1] - Investors anticipate that the Bank of Canada will restart its easing cycle at the policy meeting on September 17, with a total expected rate cut of about 40 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nick Rees, a senior forex market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd., suggests that the Bank of Canada is nearing the end of its rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve has not yet begun significant reductions [2] - The potential unexpected magnitude of rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and positive spillover effects from Canadian economic growth indicate significant upside potential for the CAD against the USD in the next 12 months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points, indicating a shift in monetary policy aimed at stimulating economic activity [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The overnight deposit and lending rates have been adjusted to 22% and 23% respectively [1] - The main operational interest rate is now set at 22.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian annual inflation rate decreased from 1.9% to 1.7% in July, primarily due to a 16.1% year-on-year decline in gasoline prices, while core inflation indicators remain strong [1] Inflation Data - The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, with the annual inflation rate falling below the Bank of Canada's target midpoint of 2% [1] - Excluding gasoline prices, the July CPI increased by 2.5% [1] - Food prices rose by 3.3%, and housing costs, which are the largest component of the CPI, increased by 3%, marking the first rise since February of the previous year [1] Core Inflation Indicators - The CPI-median increased from 3% to 3.1%, while the CPI-trim remained stable at 3% [1] - Despite the annual inflation rate being below the target range, 37.3% of the CPI basket saw price increases exceeding 3% [1] Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada on September 17 is estimated at 32% according to money market data [1] Currency Movement - The USD/CAD exchange rate was reported at 1.3881, with an increase of 0.08%, breaking through resistance levels above 1.38 [1] - The upward momentum of the USD/CAD pair is supported by strong daily and intraday trend indicators, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - UK inflation accelerated to 3.8% in July, the fastest increase in a year and a half, surpassing analyst expectations and dampening hopes for recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates was narrowly approved with a vote of 5 to 4, indicating a cautious approach due to persistent inflation above target levels [1] - UK inflation is projected to reach 4% in September, which is double the target rate, influenced by significant increases in utility bills since April [1] - The UK labor market remains tight, contributing to upward price pressures, with wage growth around 5%, complicating the Bank of England's belief in a swift return to the 2% inflation target [1] Group 2: Comparative Inflation Rates - UK inflation is higher than that of the US, which stood at 2.7% in July, and also exceeds the Eurozone, where inflation is expected to remain close to the European Central Bank's 2% target in the coming years [1]

Group 1 - The UK economy showed resilience in Q2, with a GDP growth rate of 0.3% in June, exceeding expectations [1] - The performance of the economy provides some comfort to Chancellor Reeves, but raises the threshold for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] - Factors impacting the economy include a £26 billion tax increase policy, rising regulated prices, and the impact of tariffs from the US [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is expected to have limited downside, ideally supported around the 1.3500 level, which would allow for a healthy correction [2] - A successful breakout above the 1.3588-1.3618 resistance zone could open up potential towards 1.3788, marking the highest level since October 2021 [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration have introduced two loan interest subsidy policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending and impacting the bond market [1][2] - The subsidy policy acts as a targeted interest rate cut, effectively reducing the financing costs for consumers, with potential rates dropping to as low as 1.75% for personal loans [1][2] - The implementation of the subsidy policy is set to last until August 31, 2026, allowing the central bank to monitor its effects on core CPI before making further interest rate decisions [2][4] Group 2 - The current liquidity in the interbank market remains comfortable, with overnight repo rates hovering around 1.31%, indicating ample supply [3] - August is a significant month for government bond net supply, which is expected to maintain liquidity stability, despite potential short-term tightening due to tax periods [3] - The anticipated increase in inflation expectations due to supply-side policies and consumer loan subsidies may lead to a cautious approach from the central bank regarding interest rate cuts, further delaying any potential reductions [4]