#投资表面上看，我的投资舒适区是 “买在无人问津处，卖在人声鼎沸时。”是这么做的，结果也很好。但这只是表面上。实际上我的投资舒适区，是“不在意”……因为我的主业是套利，那么主动交易我有的是耐心，和不在意。我可以一年做一笔，也可以三年做一笔，甚至可以十年做一笔。所以套利党做主动交易胜率很高，是理所当然的，同样也毫无意义。有很多 2020 年之后，BTC 还在越来越多的 holder。他们的主业有持续不断买入的现金流。这里难的是持续的、不依赖 BTC 的现金流，而不是买入。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market rebounded after a significant adjustment due to short - term redemption pressure on bond funds and rising sentiment in the equity market. The recent slowdown in the stock market's upward trend and a decline in market risk appetite have contributed to the bond market's recovery [1][2]. - In the short term, the bond market remains in a balance between expectations of loose policies and weak economic recovery, with limited downward space for yields. In the medium term, attention should be paid to fluctuations caused by increased supply and economic data repair [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, up 0.40% (+5.06%); manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, up 0.20% (+0.40%) [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.64, up 0.97 (+0.99%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1671, up 0.005 (+0.07%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.60, down 0.02 (-1.48%); DR007 was 1.58, down 0.07 (-4.34%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.04 (+2.35%); the yield of 3 - month AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.57, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread was 0.08, down 0.01 (-1.24%) [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content provided other than the source of data and some figures about the market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [9][11] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - On July 28, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.467%, 1.596%, 1.635%, and 1.549% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [1][2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific numerical or detailed analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [37][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, etc. [45][48] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, etc. [55][58] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, etc. [63][66] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, etc. [70][73] 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate rebounds and the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates, the 2509 contract is neutral [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [3]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal off - season is obvious with falling downstream开工率 and production, and potential inventory accumulation. Long - term, supply limitation and stable consumption growth are the main logic, and the long - term outlook remains optimistic despite short - term price fluctuations [3]. - Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Spot prices are short - term strong, but long - term surplus is expected. Cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. There is support from the cost side, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Key Data Aluminum - Spot: On July 24, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20710 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20780 yuan/ton, closed at 20760 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or - 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 145349 lots and a position of 309943 lots [1]. - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 510,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 448,100 tons, up 3300 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina - Spot: On July 24, 2025, SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangxi were 3240 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3361 yuan/ton, closed at 3427 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 786570 lots and a position of 189037 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 23, 2025, Baotai's purchase prices of civil and mechanical primary aluminum were 15300 yuan/ton and 15500 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; ADC12 Baotai's quote was 19700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, up 6000 tons week - on - week; the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons, down 300 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 106,800 tons, up 5700 tons week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The seasonal off - season is evident, with falling downstream开工率, production, and processing fees facing losses. Social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, but the long - term logic is supply limitation and stable consumption growth. Short - term price increase lacks fundamental support, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [3]. Alumina - Supply is in a slight surplus, with accelerating inventory accumulation. Spot prices are short - term strong. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game. Long - term surplus is expected [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and primary aluminum is tight, and there is support from the cost side. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [7]. - Arbitrage: Long - short arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [7]

Group 1 - Silver has recently experienced a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of nearly 19% in London silver spot prices since June and approximately 35% in silver futures year-to-date, surpassing gold's increase of about 27% [3][4] - The price surge of silver is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risks and its industrial properties, with industrial demand accounting for 60% of total silver demand [5][7] - The historical relationship between gold and silver prices is closely linked, with the gold-silver ratio averaging around 58 since 1968, but this ratio has increased significantly due to gold's rapid price rise [4][5] Group 2 - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic energy and electronics, is driving its price up, as silver is essential in manufacturing solar panels and electronic components [9][10] - The increasing gap between gold and silver prices has created arbitrage opportunities, prompting investors to buy silver in anticipation of its price catching up to gold [9][12] - The recognition of silver's substantial utility value, both as a precious metal and an industrial raw material, is contributing to its rising demand, especially as global economic recovery continues [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is experiencing a resurgence as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty, with current international gold prices surpassing $3,370 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase of the year [1] - The domestic gold price in China has reached 774.42 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of over 5 yuan, which translates to a 0.67% rise [1] - There is a slight discrepancy between domestic and international gold prices, with a difference of 0.24 yuan per gram, influenced by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and import costs [1] Group 2 - Various banks have set different prices for gold bars, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offering the highest at 794.76 yuan per gram, while other banks range from 787 to 789 yuan per gram [2] - Gold jewelry prices in retail stores are significantly higher, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook priced at 1,012 yuan and 1,008 yuan per gram respectively, indicating a premium due to craftsmanship and brand value [2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar, leading to higher demand for gold as a store of value [4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to consider gradual purchases of gold to mitigate risk, rather than investing all funds at once, and to wait for price corrections to average out investment costs [4] - The optimal time to sell gold is when domestic and international prices rise simultaneously, particularly when there is a daily increase of 5-10 yuan per gram, to avoid losses [6] - The potential recovery price for gold at retail stores may be lower than the market price, emphasizing the importance of timing in selling gold assets [6]

再解释下以前为什么奉行OI/MC数据。以下文章oi都按照单向计算。假设某个币有1000市值，你手上有900现货，并且开了200合约多单，这时候你去拉盘，是一定稳赚的。因为不管拉到多高，现货持有人不管多高砸给你，你的多单对手盘，持有空单的人会亏的更多。（假设合约和现货价格一样），他们爆仓的时候，就是你结算盈利的时候。那这是庄的第一视角，以外部来看，第三视角。这个市场是纯在套利者的。他们可以持有现货同时持有空单。所以我们无法确定做空的人是否是裸空，是否会投降那如果oi＞mc，那就表明，即便所有的现货持有人都是套利者，那也一定有人裸空，而一般这么大的比例的oI/mc基本都是庄开出来的，所以会认为有操盘。但是现在一开始看到的数据是错误的，oi要除以2，那么oI/mc的逻辑在大多数时候都不成立了。 ...

Market Analysis - Two new addresses appeared in the top 10 holders of PUMP on HYPE yesterday afternoon, while the other eight were profitable traders with millions of dollars in gains [1] - HYPE held $250 million in positions yesterday afternoon, while Binance held $60 million, suggesting potential arbitrage activity [2] - After accounting for potential fake positions on HYPE and arbitrageurs on Binance, there is an estimated $200 million in real positions likely to participate in the new offering [2] - A large number of arbitrageurs are expected to participate in the new offering, reducing the number of naked shorts [2] - The potential total commitment for the new offering is estimated at $300-400 million, suggesting it will be oversubscribed [2] - Oversubscription is expected to drive up the price due to FOMO (fear of missing out) in the secondary market [2] - The offering should have been completed in 2-3 minutes instead of 14 minutes if there were no exchange issues [2]

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Regulatory Compliance & Risk Management - Industry suggests exchange employees should refrain from internal arbitrage activities to avoid potential conflicts of interest and reputational damage [1] - Internal arbitrage carries risks of unfair profit distribution, user impact, and regulatory scrutiny [1] Operational Efficiency & Specialization - Industry advocates for outsourcing specialized tasks to professionals for enhanced profitability and risk mitigation [2] - The potential to analyze extensive data from a single Pump API interface is highlighted [2] Business Development & Partnership - The possibility of exploring revenue-sharing agreements is mentioned [2] - A proposition for potential collaboration is presented [2]

Market Manipulation Strategies - Proposed methods to exploit arbitrageurs by creating artificial price discrepancies between spot and futures markets [1] - Suggests maintaining a high premium by opening large long positions in the 0.5-0.55 range [1] - Plans to delay delivery of pre-sales (600 million USD) to trap arbitrageurs [1] - Advocates creating a 20 million USD liquidity pool to attract investment and increase volatility [1] - Aims to create a situation with low spot market circulation and high futures market open interest [1] - Intends to trigger a short squeeze by manipulating the futures market, potentially multiplying long positions and generating liquidity [1] Financial Exploitation - Aims to capture the entire 600 million USD from pre-sales by exploiting market dynamics [1] - Suggests strategies for even larger-scale exploitation requiring capital investment [1]