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国信期货专题报告:供应宽松格局,价格震荡运行
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current urea market is in a stage of continuous abundant supply and relatively weak demand. With the support of technological transformation and national supply - guarantee policies, the domestic urea production devices are operating at a high load, with the daily output stabilizing at around 190,000 tons, a five - year peak. Newly added production capacity will keep the supply abundant in the second half of the year. On the demand side, the extended agricultural off - season and slow industrial recovery have led to a dull market. The substantial improvement of demand depends on the start of autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. Policy and coal price factors strengthen the support for urea prices. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound due to demand support, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities based on factors such as autumn fertilizer production, winter storage policies, legal inspection systems, and coal price fluctuations [1][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Market Review - Since the listing of urea futures in 2019, the main contract price has fluctuated between 1,500 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton. From August to December 2019 and throughout 2020, the price was under pressure due to factors such as weakened cost support, production capacity expansion, and tightened export policies. After September 2024, the price dropped to a low - level range again. As of July 21, 2025, the UR2509 contract closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, still in a low - level oscillation pattern. The current supply - demand situation features high supply, weak domestic demand, marginal export support, and a rebound in coal prices, causing the price to oscillate in the low - level range [3]. Cost - Profit Analysis - The cost of different production processes: the cost of natural - gas - based urea production is 1,965 yuan/ton, the fixed - bed process cost is 1,917 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed process cost is 1,478 yuan/ton. Due to intensified industry competition, the profit margin of urea production has narrowed. The current gross profit of fixed - bed urea production is - 117 yuan/ton, that of entrained - flow bed is 362 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production is - 185 yuan/ton. When the urea price reaches around 1,600 yuan/ton, it will receive cost support [7]. Industrial Structure Analysis Supply Overview - China's urea production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and the total output has been increasing. It is expected that the total urea production capacity will exceed 80 million tons in 2025, with new production capacity from Hubei Sanning Chemical, Inner Mongolia Wulan Group, and Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan. In the first half of 2025, China's urea output reached 36.005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.18%. The daily output has steadily recovered to a high level, with an average daily output of 200,000 tons, keeping the supply pattern loose [12][18]. Demand Overview - Domestic urea demand is divided into agricultural and industrial demand, with the overall downstream demand being relatively stable. Agricultural demand accounts for about 70%, mainly for major crops such as corn, rice, and wheat. Industrial demand accounts for about 30%, mainly used in areas such as urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, thermal power denitrification, and vehicle urea. The weekly capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers and the average operating load rate of the melamine industry have been relatively stable in recent years, indicating stable urea demand [20][21]. Inventory Analysis - With the continuous commissioning of new urea production facilities, the inventory of urea enterprises is at a historically high level, with the latest inventory at 741,000 tons. Under the "orderly export" policy in 2025, the port inventory is 443,000 tons and is slowly rising [24]. Import - Export Analysis - China is the world's largest urea producer, accounting for about 30% of the world's total production capacity. The export volume in 2023 was 4.25 million tons, 260,600 tons in 2024, and 77,200 tons from January to June 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 44.17%. India plans to stop importing urea by the end of 2025. The industry has established an export self - discipline mechanism, emphasizing the "domestic priority" principle. Head - leading enterprises are accelerating overseas production capacity layout to break through export constraints [29][34]. Market Outlook - The supply will remain abundant in the second half of the year, while the demand is in a cyclical trough. The market trading atmosphere is dull, and the substantial improvement of demand depends on autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. The inventory situation is divided, and the enterprise inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, while the port inventory change depends on export policies. Policy and coal price factors strengthen price support. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities [35].
大越期货尿素早报-20250722
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 02:22
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent urea futures market has rebounded. Although international urea prices remain strong, China's second - batch export quota of 120,000 tons is significantly lower than the first batch of 200,000 tons, falling short of expectations. The domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and inventories have increased again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation. The second - batch export quota is lower than expected, industrial and agricultural demands are weak, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 102, and the premium - discount ratio is - 6.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract has rebounded, international prices are strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, weak domestic demand, and the export quota falling short of expectations. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1710 (-20), Shandong spot is 1710 (-30), Henan spot is 1720 (-5), and FOB China is 2548 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1780 (+60), 1787 (+56), and 1812 (+67) respectively, and the basis of the UR09 contract is - 102 (-87) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), the UR factory inventory is 1.177 million tons (+142,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 245,000 tons (+40,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |
大越期货尿素早报-20250630
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 02:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to show a volatile trend today. Although the international urea price is strong and agricultural demand has improved to some extent, the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the urea futures market has been volatile. International situation fluctuations have led to a tight urea supply, with international urea prices being strong, and the impact has partially spread to the domestic market. In terms of supply, the operating rate and daily production are at recent highs, and inventory has shown slight fluctuations. On the demand side, in industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has continued to decline, and the operating rate of melamine has also decreased. Agricultural demand expectations have turned weak again. The overall supply of urea still significantly exceeds demand, and the export policy has not been liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1880 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 166, with a premium - discount ratio of 8.8%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 980,000 tons (-218,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The main contract of urea shows a volatile trend. The international urea price is strong, and agricultural demand has improved, but the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices and a marginal improvement in domestic agricultural demand. Bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, as well as high - year - on - year inventory. The main logic lies in international supply and marginal changes in domestic demand, and the main risk point is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Quotes | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Quotes** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1880 (-10), Shandong spot price is 1880 (-10), Henan spot price is 1900 (0), and FOB China price is 2547 [6]. | | **Futures Quotes** | The price of the 09 contract is 1717 (-7), UR01 is 1684 (2), UR05 is 1696 (5), and the basis of the UR09 contract is 163 (-3) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 500, UR comprehensive inventory is 980,000 tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 817,000 tons, and UR port inventory is 163,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]
大越期货尿素早报-20250626
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 01:58
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The urea market is currently in a state of shock. International factors lead to a tight supply and rising prices, which have a partial impact on the domestic market. Although agricultural demand has improved, the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been fluctuating. International supply shortages have caused prices to rise, affecting the domestic market. Supply-side production has reached a multi-year high, and inventory has declined. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer industry's production has decreased, the melamine industry's production has increased, and agricultural demand has improved. The overall supply still significantly exceeds demand, and export policies remain unchanged. The spot price of the delivery product is 1920 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 180, with a premium/discount ratio of 9.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 980,000 tons (-218,000 tons), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, while the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Positions**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, and agricultural demand has improved, but the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. Therefore, the UR market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International prices are strong, and domestic agricultural demand has marginally improved [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Production and daily output are at a high level, and inventory is higher than the same period last year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The main factors influencing the market are international supply and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1920, the Shandong spot price is 1930, the Henan spot price is 1920, and the FOB China price is 2548 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR09 contract is 1740 (+24), the price of the UR01 contract is 1697 (+30), and the price of the UR05 contract is 1705 (+19). The basis of the UR09 contract is 180 (-42) [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, urea production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption generally showed an upward trend. Capacity growth rates varied from 8.4% - 15.5%, and consumption growth rates ranged from 0.3% - 17.9% [10].
银河期货尿素日报-20250624
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 13:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market sentiment remains weak, with the decline in spot factory - gate prices in major regions widening and trading sluggish. It is expected that urea futures and spot prices will be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to domestic export dynamics [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the futures market, urea futures fluctuated widely, closing at 1698 (-16/-0.93%). In the spot market, the factory - gate prices continued to decline, with prices in different regions as follows: Henan 1710 - 1730 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1700 - 1780 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1740 - 1750 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1620 - 1680 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1620 - 1690 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On June 24, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.86 tons, 0.12 tons less than the previous working day and 2.91 tons more than the same period last year. The current operating rate was 85.79%, 7.52% higher than 78.27% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Market sentiment is still low, with increased price drops in major regions and weak trading. Shandong and Henan regions are expected to see continued price drops. The factory - gate prices in areas around the delivery zone are following the downward trend. Although some plants are under maintenance and daily production is below 200,000 tons, it is still at a record high for the same period. The end of the Middle - East conflict has stabilized international prices, and the large price difference between domestic and international markets has a certain positive impact on domestic sentiment. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer plants in central and northern China is low, and overall demand is declining. Although the port inspection policy for exports has been relaxed, its impact on domestic spot is limited. With prices dropping to around 1700 yuan/ton, demand remains weak, and it is expected that urea futures and spot will be weak in the short - term [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Bearish - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell call options on rebounds [6]
大越期货尿素早报-20250613
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently characterized by an obvious oversupply situation. The supply side shows high operating rates and daily production, with new device put into operation recently and a slight increase in inventory. On the demand side, the industrial demand sees a decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate, a neutral operating rate for melamine, and short - term weak agricultural demand. Although the export profit is high due to the implementation of export policies and the dual - track price system, it has little impact on domestic prices. The report predicts that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has been falling recently. Supply is abundant with high operating rates, daily production, and new device commissioning, leading to a slight inventory build - up. Industrial demand in compound fertilizer is weakening, melamine operating rate is neutral, and agricultural demand is short - term weak. There is an obvious oversupply. The spot price of the deliverable is 1850 (unchanged). Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 204, with a premium - discount ratio of 11.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the decline of the main urea contract, high daily production, slight inventory build - up, and short - term weak agricultural demand, the overall oversupply is obvious. It is expected that the UR will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Market - **Bullish Factors**: None mentioned explicitly. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, new device commissioning, and overall weak demand. The main logic is oversupply and marginal changes in demand. The main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the deliverable is 1850 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1850 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1860 (unchanged), and FOB China is 1869 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract is 1646 (-21), UR01 is 1635 (-12), and UR05 is 1664 (-21). The basis is 204 (+21) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.192 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 118,000 tons [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. The production volume has also generally increased, but the growth rate of apparent consumption has fluctuated. The import dependence has been decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].
尿素周报:关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况-20250609
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:38
投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 ——尿素周报2025.06.09 中原期货研究所:化工组 作者:刘培洋 研究助理:申文 执业证书编号:F0290318 执业证书编号: F03117458 投资咨询编号:Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 供应:装置检修变化有限,日产维持高位运行; | | | | | 2. 需求:夏季肥逐步进入收尾阶段; | | | | | 3. 库存:上游尿素企业延续累库,港口库存变化有限; | | | | | 4. 成本与利润:煤炭价格弱稳运行,尿素利润环比增加; | | | | | 5. 基差与价差:9-1价差偏弱运行,09基差走强。 | 短期尿素期价延 | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | | 6. 整体逻辑: | 续偏弱 ...
尿素2025年6月报:回归供需季节性-20250603
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:29
尿素2025年6月报: 回归供需季节性 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格:鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-06-03 目 录 01 尿素行情回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素农业需求分析 08 尿素后市展望 01 尿素5月行情回顾 受出口信息持续影响,5月上旬尿素价格高位震荡,下旬回归实际供需矛盾,尿素产销转弱,价格高位回落,接近出口 调整前运行区间。5月30日尿素09合约收盘于1773元/吨,较上月底下调84元/吨,尿素河南市场价格1880元/吨,较 上月底下调26元/吨。 尿素09合约期货价格(元/吨) 1050 1550 2050 2550 3050 3550 中国尿素(小颗粒)日度均价(元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源:同花顺,长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素基差与价差 价差:5月尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势,5月30日9-1价差70元/吨, ...
尿素:出口消息落地后价格何去何从?
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 02:11
专题报告 2025-05-14 刘洁文 能化研究员 从业资格号:F03097315 交易咨询号:Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 尿素:出口消息落地后价格何去何从? 报告要点: 4 月 30 日,也就是五一节前最后一个交易日,有两个市场传闻,一个传 5 月 10 日要公布出口 消息,另外一个传 5 月 16 给符合出口的企业划分二铵出口数量,一共 350 万吨出口数量,窗 口期为 6-10 月份。市场受消息影响当日 09 合约大涨超 7%,随后过节期间企业纷纷上调报价, 市场在乐观预期推动下拿货好转,企业收单走高。过节期间关于出口的消息并未被证伪,现货 报价依旧维持偏强走势,以提涨为主,节后关于出口的消息继续发酵,化肥出口座谈会对于化 肥出口做出了安排,提出暂定化肥出口窗口为 5-9 月份,出口总量严格控制在不超过 2023 年 出口规模,明确本年度禁止向印度出口化肥等措施。自此,前期关于放开出口的消息逐步被证 实,市场情绪开始逐步恢复平静,价格波动开始回落。 本周国内生产企业开工回到中高位,日产接近 20 万吨,短期暂未有新增检修计划,预计开工高 位维持。随着新增产能 ...
冠通研究:刚需跟进,盘面增仓上行
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 10:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened slightly higher and trended upward. Factory prices continued to rise and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The continuous rise in the futures market stimulated market demand. The supply side saw a small - scale post - holiday maintenance and production cut, and the daily output decreased slightly. The demand side showed cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation and weak industrial demand. This week, inventory started to decline, and the market was affected by export rumors, with high expectations but no official confirmation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened slightly higher and trended upward. Factory prices rose and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The supply side had small - scale post - holiday maintenance and production cuts, and the daily output decreased slightly. The demand side had cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation, and industrial demand was still for immediate needs. The composite fertilizer factory's terminal sales were poor, and the inventory was high. This week, inventory started to decline, and the market was affected by export rumors [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1900 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward during the day, and finally closed at 1886 yuan/ton, up 0.96%. The trading volume increased by 24,618 lots to 256,052 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 18,614 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,831 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Factory prices continued to rise and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1820 - 1850 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On May 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,970, the same as the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. The basis of the September contract widened to 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply Data**: On May 7, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,900 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.7% [11]. - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 126,100 tons from last week, a 10.58% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 5.82 days, a decrease of 1.65 days from the previous period, a 22.09% decrease [12].