1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures market has stabilized at the bottom of the range, with a slight weekly increase, but the spot market continues to decline, the basis weakens, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuates at a low level. The supply has recovered, but demand lacks drive, and the overall market sentiment remains weak. Prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock in the short term [12]. - Fundamentally, domestic urea plant operating rate has increased, production is at a high level, demand is average, and corporate inventories are rising. The market is currently characterized by low valuation and weak drive, and there is no significant one - sided trend. It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures market stabilized at the bottom of the range, with a slight weekly increase, while the spot market continued to decline, the basis weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at a low level. The supply recovered, but demand lacked drive, and the market sentiment was weak. Prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock in the short term [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The domestic urea plant operating rate this week was 85.58%, a 4.36% increase from the previous week. Both coal - based and gas - based operating rates rebounded. Daily production rose to 199,300 tons and will remain high in the short term [12]. - **Demand**: The spot market weakened further, and profits from all processes fell to low levels. The pre - order days of enterprises were 6.71 days, a 0.53 - day increase from the previous week. The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27%, a 3.36% decrease from the previous week, mainly due to seasonal decline. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and exports and pre - orders before the festival provide some support [12]. - **Valuation**: Export profits are high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued. Urea valuation is low [12]. - **Inventory**: Corporate inventories were 1.2182 million tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period last year. Port inventories were 496,300 tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. - **Market Logic**: Supply and demand remain weak, the spot market continues to decline, and the current situation is characterized by low valuation and weak supply - demand, with narrowing price fluctuations [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The 09 contract closed at 1,740, down 4 from the previous week; the 01 contract closed at 1,669, up 8; the 05 contract closed at 1,720, down 2 [13]. - **Spot Market**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all declined, with Shandong and Henan down 10 each, and Hebei down 30 [13]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at a low level [12]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profits**: Profits from fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production continued to decline [28]. - **Inventory** - **Enterprise Inventory**: Corporate inventories were 1.2182 million tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period last year [12]. - **Port Inventory**: Port inventories were 496,300 tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: Some new production capacity was put into operation in 2024 and 2025 [40]. - **Urea Operating Rate**: The operating rate increased rapidly, with both coal - based and gas - based operating rates rising [12][42]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises carried out routine, loss - based, and policy - based maintenance, and some enterprises have planned maintenance in October [45][46]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and exports and pre - orders before the festival provide some support [12]. - **Compound Fertilizers**: The operating rate declined seasonally, but profits improved [53]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented in the report [57]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profits, and export volume data of melamine are provided [59][60][63]. - **Terminal Demand**: Data on the export volume of plywood, housing construction, and real - estate transaction area are presented [69][73]. - **Export**: Export profits are good, and data on the export volume of urea, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers are provided [79][80][82]. 3.6. Options - Related - Data on the trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility of urea options are presented [91][93][100]. 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics are provided [103][105][107]. - A summary of the seasonal demand for chemical fertilizers in different regions in China and major countries around the world is given, showing that the demand for chemical fertilizers has obvious seasonal characteristics [110].

Report Title - Urea Weekly Report: Nissan Rises, Supply Pressure Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The market is currently weak, with rising enterprise inventories and falling spot prices. Although the valuation is at a low level, there is limited downside space, but there is no driving force for an upward trend. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures market continued to fluctuate weakly, closing slightly lower for the week, with prices approaching the lower edge of the range. Enterprises faced pressure to receive orders before the holiday, and the spot market remained weak. The basis and inter - month spreads fluctuated weakly at low levels [12]. - **Supply**: The domestic urea plant operating rate was 81.22%, a 1.88% increase from the previous week, and it is expected to continue rising. The latest daily production was 196,000 tons, and supply pressure has increased again. The enterprise's advance orders were 6.18 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous week, and market sentiment remained cautious [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer operating rate was 38.63%, a slight increase from the previous week, and it is currently mainly producing wheat fertilizer. It is the off - season for agricultural demand, and there has been no concentrated release of agricultural demand. Coal - based production profits have further declined, and attention should be paid to cost support [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The inter - month spreads and basis were generally weak, both at low levels compared to the same period last year. The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. Urea was undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories were 1.1653 million tons, a 32,600 - ton increase from the previous week, and at a high level compared to the same period last year, indicating weak domestic demand. Port inventories were 516,000 tons, a 33,400 - ton decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts were 1,744, 1,661, and 1,722 respectively. The 09 contract increased by 174, the 01 contract decreased by 2, and the 05 contract increased by 4 compared to the previous week. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 176, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 170 [13]. - **Spot Market**: The latest prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were 1,640, 1,650, and 1,680 respectively. The Shandong price remained unchanged, while the Henan and Hebei prices increased by 10. The Shandong, Henan, and Hebei basis were - 21, - 11, and 19 respectively, with increases of 2, 12, and 12 compared to the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizers (45%S) in Shandong and Hubei were 2,930 and 2,950 respectively. The Shandong price decreased by 20, while the Hubei price remained unchanged. The prices of melamine decreased by 17. The export profit of urea increased by 85 [13]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The profit of fixed - bed production decreased again [28]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories were 1.1653 million tons, a 32,600 - ton increase from the previous week. Port inventories were 516,000 tons, a 33,400 - ton decrease from the previous week [12]. 4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There were planned production - increasing devices in some enterprises, such as Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [42]. - **Urea Operating Rate**: The supply has recovered, and the domestic urea plant operating rate was 81.22%, a 1.88% increase from the previous week [12]. - **Enterprise Maintenance**: Many enterprises carried out maintenance, including Hebei Zhengyuan Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., etc. Some enterprises also have planned maintenance in the future, such as Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical Group Co., Ltd. [47][48]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: There are seasonal characteristics in domestic and international fertilizer demand. The peak season in China is from March to July, while in India it is from June to October, and in the United States it is about one month earlier than in China [111][112]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer operating rate was 38.63%, a slight increase from the previous week, and it is currently mainly producing wheat fertilizer [12]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: Attention should be paid to the price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate [59]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate and profit of melamine have changed, and the export volume also shows certain trends [62][64]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is affected by factors such as the real estate market and export volume [70][73]. - **Export**: The export profit is good, and the export volume shows certain changes [80][81]. 6. Option - related - **Urea Options**: The trading volume and open interest of urea options, as well as the PCR of open interest and trading volume, show certain trends. The volatility of urea options also has a certain relationship with the futures price [92][94][101]. 7. Industrial Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: It shows the characteristics and structure of the urea industry chain, as well as the research framework analysis [104][106][108].

Core Viewpoint - Urea futures prices have shown a downward trend in early September, with a weak spot market and a bearish sentiment prevailing due to a lack of significant positive drivers [1][2]. Supply Summary - Despite some maintenance leading to a temporary drop in daily production to 190,000 tons, overall domestic urea supply remains relatively high [2]. - The capacity utilization rate is at 79.34%, up 1.24 percentage points from the previous period, with expectations for further increases as maintenance decreases [2]. - Domestic urea companies' total inventory stands at 1.1327 million tons, a 50% year-on-year increase, indicating significant inventory pressure [2]. - Production profits for urea have declined significantly, with new gas flow bed production profits around 300 CNY/ton, traditional fixed bed profits at 50 CNY/ton, and natural gas process profits at 150 CNY/ton [2]. Demand Summary - Urea apparent demand from January to July was 41 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons or 8% year-on-year [3]. - Agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal lull, with compound fertilizer companies holding high finished goods inventory and low operating rates [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from plywood and melamine sectors, remains weak due to sluggishness in the real estate industry, leading to lower operating rates in plywood factories [3]. - Urea futures prices have dropped below 1,700 CNY/ton, with expectations for continued weak fluctuations in prices due to the prevailing supply-demand imbalance [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, under the situation of weak supply and demand of urea, both spot and futures prices declined. The high inventory of urea factories restricted the upward space of prices. Currently, the price has dropped to an acceptable low - price range in the market. After the futures sentiment improved, spot low - price purchases began, and the futures market started a technical rebound [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, affected by the continuous decline of futures, the domestic demand was insufficient, and the spot market was weak, showing a continuous price - reduction trend. Since the weekend, the urea price continued to decline steadily, and new orders had not improved. However, there was an intention to purchase at the current price. Today, affected by the futures rebound, the low - price spot transactions were smooth [4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures on the disk continued to decline. By September 12, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price on September 5. The weekly trading volume was 1,496.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 388.56 million tons; the open interest was 817.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146.72 million tons. The futures decline was weaker than the spot decline, and the basis weakened. As of September 15, the 01 contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 8 yuan/ton. On September 15, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,613, a week - on - week decrease of 154 [6][9] 3.3 Urea Supply End - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From September 4 to September 10, the weekly output of urea was 1.2993 billion tons, an increase of 20.3 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and the average daily output was 185,600 tons. It is expected that the probability of output increase in the next cycle is relatively large. The coal price decreased, and the domestic liquefied natural gas price also declined last week. The price center of synthetic ammonia moved down, while the methanol spot price increased [13][15][16] 3.4 Urea Demand End - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat compared with the previous week. After the parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the finished product inventory of compound fertilizer factories decreased continuously this month. However, the fertilizer stockpiling was nearly 70% - 80%, and the subsequent increment was limited. The capacity utilization rate of melamine decreased, and the demand for urea increased insufficiently [18] 3.5 Inventory Data - As of September 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 382.8 million tons. The port sample inventory was 549.4 million tons, a decrease of 71.5 million tons compared with the previous week [21] 3.6 International Market - India's NFL's urea import tender on September 2 determined a transaction of about 2.03 billion tons, and it is estimated that China's urea supply in this tender may be 700 - 800 million tons. As of September 12, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in different regions showed different trends of increase and decrease [23]

Market Overview - Urea futures prices have declined, with the 2601 contract closing at 1663 CNY/ton on September 12, down 64 CNY/ton or 3.67% from the end of August, primarily due to weak demand and disappointing Indian tender results [3][5] - The domestic spot market also showed weakness, with prices in various regions dropping between 60 to 90 CNY/ton compared to the end of August [3] Supply Side - Domestic urea production capacity utilization rate was 79.34% as of September 12, down 3.05 percentage points from the end of August, with a daily average production of 18.56 million tons, a decrease of 71.42 million tons from the end of August [7] - Despite a slight decrease in daily production, supply pressure remains due to high overall production levels, with expectations of a rebound in production as previously shut-down facilities resume operations [6][7] Demand Side - Agricultural demand is currently slow, with a seasonal gap in demand for urea, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among downstream distributors [9] - Industrial demand has not shown growth compared to previous years, with fertilizer manufacturers operating at low capacity utilization rates and high inventory levels [9][12] Inventory Levels - Urea production companies have seen an increase in inventory, with factory stock reaching 113.27 million tons as of September 12, up 4.69 million tons from the end of August [15] - Port inventory decreased slightly, but overall inventory levels remain high, indicating ongoing supply pressures [15] Cost Factors - The profitability of urea production has decreased due to falling prices, with various production methods experiencing reduced or negative margins [18] - Coal prices have stabilized, but overall demand remains limited, affecting the cost structure of urea production [18] Conclusion - The urea market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to continued price pressure [19] - Future demand may see some support from seasonal agricultural needs, but overall market conditions suggest limited upside potential for prices in the near term [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China, with the daily production and operating rate remaining at a relatively high level and the inventory at a high position. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The market is expected to be volatile today, influenced by factors such as the international price and domestic demand changes [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has seen a volatile decline recently. The previous price increase was due to rumors of export liberalization, but market sentiment has since cooled. The daily production and operating rate are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine has slightly rebounded, while agricultural demand has reached a short - term peak. The overall supply exceeds demand in the domestic market, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 89, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (+0.8), which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is a bullish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate. With the international urea price being strong and the export policy not being more liberal than expected, the domestic over - supply situation remains obvious [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Price - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The operating rate and daily production are at a high level, and domestic demand is weak [5]. - **Main Logic**: The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1760, unchanged; the FOB price in China is 2919 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 01 contract is 1671 (+2), the basis is 89 (-2); the price of the UR05 contract is 1719 (unchanged), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1595 (-18) [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The warehouse receipt is 8897 (unchanged), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (unchanged), the UR manufacturer's inventory is 917,000 tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 493,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report on urea, dated September 3, 2025 [2] 1. Market Review Futures Market - Urea futures saw an increase in positions and a significant decline, closing at 1714 (-33/-1.89%) [3] Spot Market - The ex - factory prices were stable with average trading volume. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1580 - 1640 yuan/ton [3] 2. Important Information - On September 3, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.24 tons, the same as the previous working day (revised to 18.24 tons), and 0.2 tons less than the same period last year. The current operating rate was 77.96%, 4.83% lower than 82.79% in the same period last year [4] 3. Logic Analysis Supply - Some plants were under maintenance, and the average daily production dropped below 190,000 tons. The urea production enterprise inventory increased by 61,900 tons to around 1.0858 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] Demand - A new round of Indian tender was announced, with India tendering for 2 million tons again, closing on September 2 and with a shipping date at the end of October. The large price difference between domestic and international markets and relaxed export policies had a certain boost to the domestic market sentiment. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was low, and the grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the urea inventory could last for more than half a month, resulting in low procurement sentiment for raw materials. The overall demand was declining [5] Market Outlook - In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. After the agricultural demand ended and the compound fertilizers had not started large - scale production, the spot market sentiment was generally stable. After some regions lowered the ex - factory prices, the manufacturers' order receipts improved. The Indian tender and relaxed export policies provided some support to the domestic spot market. However, after the ex - factory prices were raised to around 1680 yuan/ton, the downstream adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The futures fluctuated, and after the third batch of export quotas were implemented, urea returned to the domestic fundamentals. The key was the results of the Indian tender and the export volume to India [5] 4. Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [6] - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [6] - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic urea supply is abundant, and the overall demand is declining. Although the new round of Indian tenders and the relaxation of export policies have a certain boosting effect on the market sentiment, the short - term domestic demand is still limited. The spot market sentiment is generally stable, and the focus is on the results of the Indian tenders and the export volume to India [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and finally closed at 1746 (+9/+0.52%) [4]. - Spot market: The ex - factory prices were stable with average trading volume. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1580 - 1640 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - On September 2, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.26 tons, an increase of 0.11 tons compared with the previous working day and a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with the same period last year. The current operating rate was 78.05%, a decrease of 5.20% compared with 83.25% in the same period last year [5]. Logical Analysis - Market sentiment: The market sentiment was average, with stable ex - factory prices in mainstream regions and average trading volume. The ex - factory prices in Shandong showed a hidden decline, and the market sentiment was general. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory prices followed the upward trend. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled down [6]. - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the average daily output dropped below 190,000 tons. The urea production enterprise inventory increased by 61,900 tons to around 1.0858 million tons, at a high level overall [6]. - Demand: A new round of Indian tenders was announced, with India tendering 2 million tons again, with the tender closing on September 2 and the shipping date at the end of October. The domestic and foreign price difference was large, which had a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment under the relaxed export policy. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, and the grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the urea inventory could be used for more than half a month, and the procurement sentiment for raw materials was low [6]. - Forecast: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. After the agricultural demand ended and the compound fertilizers had not started production on a large scale, the spot market sentiment was generally stable. The ex - factory prices in some regions decreased, and the manufacturers' order receipts improved. The Indian tenders and the relaxation of export policies had a certain supporting effect on the domestic spot market. After the ex - factory prices were raised to around 1680 yuan/ton, the downstream adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The futures fluctuated, and the third batch of export quotas had been finalized. The key was the results of the Indian tenders and the export volume to India [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand structure of the urea market has not improved substantially. The core contradiction lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand. The short - term price may continue to fluctuate, and the urea futures main contract UR2601 is currently oscillating in the range of 1600 yuan/ton to 1900 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to be cautious [50] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: From August 25th - 29th, the urea futures main contract UR2601 oscillated, with a range increase of 0.29% and a range amplitude of 2.08% [6] - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On August 28th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared to last Thursday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11] 2. Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - **Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 81.73%, a 2.72% decrease from the previous week and a 6.55% increase year - on - year, still at a near - five - year high [16] - **Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 20.33 tons, a 2.43% increase from the previous week and a 5.41% decrease year - on - year [18] - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 108 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the weekly output of pipeline fertilizer gas - made urea is 27 tons, a 6.90% decrease from the previous week [22] Demand - side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate**: The capacity operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 41.12%, a 2.71% increase from the previous period and a 7.95% decrease compared to 2024 [25] - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 86.72 tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and an 11.58% increase compared to 2024 [29] - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 57.04%, a 10.26% increase from the previous week and a 6.38% decrease compared to 2024 [32] Inventory - side - **Inventory Situation**: Urea enterprise inventory is 100.3 tons, a 7.50% increase from the previous week; port inventory is 79.5 tons, a 7.14% increase from the previous week [35] Cost - side - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On August 28th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to August 21st [40] - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - price anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. The current aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also flat compared to the previous period [42] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to October 2025, including data such as initial inventory, output, consumption, export, and supply - demand ratio [46] 3. Market Outlook - **Supply - side**: Under the joint promotion of the continuous implementation of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, high - load operation of production enterprises has become the norm. The overall urea supply continues to be in a loose pattern, and the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly in the short term [50] - **Demand - side**: Agricultural demand is limited, and industrial demand is gradually increasing but mainly for rigid needs. There is no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement [50] - **Inventory - side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists [50] - **Cost - side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with changes in demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [50] - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term price may continue to fluctuate, and investors are advised to be cautious [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which had previously risen due to rumors of increased export expectations, has seen a market sentiment decline as actual export demand has not significantly improved. The report predicts that the UR contract will trend sideways today [4]. - The main factors influencing the market are the strong international urea prices and weak domestic demand, with the key risk being changes in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating downward. The current daily production and operating rate remain high, and inventory is at a high level overall. Industrial demand, such as for compound fertilizers and melamine, is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of urea in China exceeds demand, export profits have declined but remain strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 77, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall supply in China exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will trend sideways today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international prices; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (+20), Shandong spot is 1830 (+20), Henan spot is 1840 (unchanged), and FOB China is 3102 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 01 contract is 1753 (+16), the 05 contract is 1789 (+10), and the 09 contract is 1702 (-5). The basis of the UR01 contract is 77 (+4) [6]. - **Inventory**: Warehouse receipts are 6473 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 0.896 million tons (unchanged), and UR port inventory is 0.541 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [10].