Core Viewpoint - Skyworth Group (00751) issued a profit warning, expecting a decline of approximately 50% in after-tax profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period ending June 30, 2024, primarily due to the ongoing downturn in the Chinese real estate market and weak sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's stock fell over 3%, specifically down 3.04% to HKD 3.19, with a trading volume of HKD 7.8624 million [1] - The expected decline in after-tax profit is attributed to impairment provisions related to real estate inventory, reflecting changes in the current market environment [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The downturn in the Chinese real estate market has led to poor performance in the company's modern service industry segment, particularly in construction and development business [1] - The company has increased its impairment provisions for real estate inventory in accordance with accounting standards, indicating a response to the challenging market conditions [1]

中经记者 陈婷 赵毅 深圳报道 7月28日晚间，华发股份（600325.SH）公告全资子公司深圳融华置地投资有限公司（以下简称"融华置 地"）拟按深圳市土地储备中心收回收购的形式，处置其持有的前海冰雪世界项目7块商业用地，面积共 计约7.05万平方米，价格为44.05亿元。截至目前，这些地块均处于未建状态。 华发股份在公告中表示，上述交易是为加快推进地块盘活工作，降低资产流动性风险，规避持续开发存 在的市场风险，盘活沉淀资产，回笼资金。经综合测算，预计上述交易产生的亏损超过公司2024年经审 计净利润的50%。 前海冰雪世界项目为华发股份在深圳的重点开发项目，占地面积约43万平方米，总建筑面积约131万平 方米，总投资超百亿元，涵盖30万平方米的人才房社区。据悉，前海冰雪世界项目预计于2025年第四季 度试营业。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉对《中国经营报》记者表示，收储土地是政府的一项职能， 或说是政府保持国有资产保值增值的必然选择。"特别是在土地长期不开发、企业无力开发等导致土地 资产价值下滑的情况下，更有可能通过收储来抑制价格波动。"李宇嘉进一步补充称，过去，商业办公 及综合体项目的建设量较大 ...

此外，集团就该期间的中期业绩也预计受到其智能系统技术业务板块表现的影响，归因于市场竞争环境 影响，智能终端机产品的销售单价大幅下降，导致营业收入、毛利率同比下降。 格隆汇7月29日丨创维集团(00751.HK)公布，根据公司目前掌握的资料，及初步审阅集团截至2025年6月 30日止六个月的未经审核综合管理账目後，预期集团税后溢利较截至2024年6月30日止六个月的税后溢 利，将录得约50%的下降幅度。上述预期下降幅度乃主要受中国房地产市场持续下行、销售低迷的影 响，集团现代服务业业务板块中建设发展业务之部分区域物业因此计提减值及导致该业务业绩表现欠 佳。集团根据会计准则的要求增加了相关房地产存货减值准备，主要反映了当前市场环境的变化。未来 集团将继续密切关注市场动态，并可能根据市场变化适时作出调整以反映其资产价值。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Skyworth Group (00751), anticipates a decline of approximately 50% in after-tax profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The expected decline is primarily attributed to the ongoing downturn in the Chinese real estate market and sluggish sales, which have led to impairment provisions in certain regional properties within the modern services sector [1] - The company has increased its impairment provisions for real estate inventory in accordance with accounting standards, reflecting changes in the current market environment [1] Group 2 - The company's mid-term performance is also expected to be impacted by the performance of its smart systems technology segment, due to a competitive market environment [1] - The significant drop in sales prices of smart terminal products has resulted in a year-on-year decline in revenue and gross margin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant weakness, which is likely to severely hinder overall economic growth [1][10]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi has raised concerns from a "yellow alert" to a "red alert" regarding the real estate market's deteriorating outlook [2]. - Mortgage rates are currently near 7%, and unless they decrease significantly, home sales, construction activity, and even home prices are expected to decline sharply [3][4]. - In May, existing home sales unexpectedly rose but still marked the slowest sales pace for any May since 2009, indicating a dismal spring selling season [3]. Group 2: Sales and Construction Trends - New single-family home sales fell by 13.7% month-over-month in May, and single-family housing starts decreased by 4.6% in June, with a decline in building permits as well [4]. - Builders who previously offered rate subsidies to support sales are now withdrawing this practice due to high costs, leading to anticipated declines in new home sales, starts, and completions [4]. - The Case-Shiller home price index showed a 0.3% month-over-month decline in April, a larger drop than the revised 0.2% decrease in March [5]. Group 3: Builder Sentiment and Price Adjustments - According to the National Association of Home Builders, 38% of builders lowered home prices in July, up from 37% in June, indicating a trend of decreasing builder confidence [6]. - Increased supply is putting additional downward pressure on home prices, as even homeowners with locked-in low mortgage rates are compelled to sell and buy new homes at higher rates [7]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Zandi warns that the current state of the real estate market will soon become a major obstacle to overall economic growth, raising concerns about the economic outlook for later this year and early next year [11]. - Citi Research analysts have echoed similar warnings, noting that residential investment is a strong leading indicator of economic recession, particularly under current weak demand conditions [11][12]. - The residential fixed investment sector, being highly sensitive to interest rates, is signaling that the current mortgage rates around 7% are too high to sustain ongoing economic growth [13].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China, particularly in first-tier cities, continues to experience a downward trend in second-hand housing prices, with a lack of market confidence evident across various regions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In June, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities was 13,691 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.26% [1]. - First-tier cities saw an increase in the rate of decline, with prices dropping by 0.56% in June compared to 0.36% in May [1]. - The rebound in prices following the "924 New Policy" from last year is rapidly fading, leading to a depletion of home-buying demand [3]. Group 2: Policy Responses - Local governments have limited policy tools left, primarily relying on housing subsidies and adjustments to public housing fund loan policies [3]. - Several cities have introduced new public housing fund policies aimed at increasing loan limits and easing borrowing conditions to stimulate demand [4]. Group 3: Regional Focus - Xi'an - Xi'an's housing market is experiencing a downward trend, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [6]. - The average price of second-hand homes in Xi'an is approximately 12,258.67 yuan per square meter, which is below the national average [6]. - The coverage rate of public housing fund contributions in Xi'an is low, with only about 185,000 contributors, representing less than 20% of the city's permanent population [7]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - The impact of new public housing fund policies on real estate consumption is expected to be limited due to low coverage and insufficient loan amounts to meet the high prices in core areas [8]. - Consumer confidence remains a critical factor, with many potential buyers focusing on job stability and income rather than interest rates or policy details [8]. - The current government strategy aims to stabilize the market and avoid drastic declines, indicating a preference for gradual recovery [11].

Core Viewpoint - The once-coveted high-rise elevator apartments are now facing unprecedented challenges, including a significant drop in prices and transaction volumes, with declines exceeding 30% from historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since 2022, the real estate market has entered a "volume and price decline" phase, with a sharp drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - The market trend reflects the foresight of industry figures like Cao Dewang, who warned about the potential devaluation of properties [1][3]. Group 2: Key Factors for Decline - **High Shared Area Costs**: The common area in elevator apartments can be as high as 25% or more, leading to hidden costs for buyers. For a 100 square meter apartment, usable space may only be 70-75 square meters, resulting in additional expenses that can reach tens of thousands of yuan [4]. - **Safety Risks**: High-rise buildings pose significant safety hazards during emergencies, as elevators may fail during disasters, and rescue operations are limited to certain heights, increasing evacuation difficulties [5][6]. - **Inconvenient Access**: Residents often face issues with elevator malfunctions and congestion during peak hours, leading to delays in daily commutes and impacting quality of life [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Aging elevator apartments are unlikely to see large-scale redevelopment due to high costs, leading to a situation where maintenance becomes a burden on residents. This could result in a demographic shift, with economically stable residents moving out, leaving behind lower-income tenants and potentially transforming these areas into "slums" [11].

Core Viewpoint - The new management team at Yuexiu Property faces the challenge of revitalizing the commercial sector, which has been underperforming due to market downturns [1][6]. Management Changes - Yuexiu Property announced the appointment of Jiang Guoxiong as the new chairman for both Yuexiu Services and Yuexiu REIT, replacing Lin Deliang and Zhu Hu Song respectively [2][4]. - Jiang Guoxiong has a rapid career progression within Yuexiu, having held various leadership roles since November 2020, including positions in the Central and Southwest regions [2][3]. Performance Overview - Yuexiu REIT reported a total revenue of 2.032 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in office property income [5]. - The office income for Yuexiu REIT was 1.15 billion yuan, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue, and saw a year-on-year decline of 4.5% [5]. - Yuexiu Services experienced a total revenue of 3.868 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase year-on-year, but net profit fell by 27.5% to 353 million yuan due to a significant goodwill impairment [5]. Future Challenges - The overall real estate market remains under pressure, and the commercial and property sectors have not yet shown signs of recovery, presenting a significant challenge for Jiang Guoxiong in leading Yuexiu's commercial segment out of its current low performance [6].

Core Viewpoint - Hongyeji is attempting to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after facing challenges in its A-share listing process, with a history of declining revenues and emerging liquidity risks [1][2]. Company Overview - Hongyeji has over 22 years of experience in geotechnical engineering services in South China and holds various construction qualifications [1]. - The company is the largest non-state-owned geotechnical engineering firm in South China, with a market share of 1.9% in 2024 [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue has declined for three consecutive years, with figures of 1.228 billion RMB, 1.112 billion RMB, and 1.011 billion RMB for the fiscal years 2022 to 2024 [3]. - Despite declining revenues, net profits increased from 47.5 million RMB in 2022 to 75.7 million RMB in 2024, attributed to rising gross margins and decreasing sales costs [2][3]. - Gross profit margins improved from approximately 15.5% in 2022 to 23.7% in 2024, primarily due to reduced direct material costs [4]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The company's cash flow has been volatile, with operating cash flows of -94.1 million RMB, 113 million RMB, and 155 million RMB over the same period [4]. - Trade receivables have been high, with significant contributions from five major clients, leading to increased liquidity risks [5][6]. Industry Context - The construction industry, particularly the real estate sector, is experiencing a downturn, impacting demand for geotechnical services [7]. - Key metrics in the real estate sector, such as new construction area and sales area, are in negative growth, indicating a challenging environment for related industries [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - Hongyeji's operations are heavily concentrated in South China, particularly in Shenzhen, which accounts for over 70% of its revenue [8][9]. - Competitors with a national presence may pose challenges for Hongyeji's growth, as the company lacks experience in expanding to other regions [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company maintains its leading position in the real estate industry and is actively expanding its presence in core cities [8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 311.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year [8] - The company has achieved the highest sales volume in the industry for two consecutive years, with a sales area of 17.966 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year [8] - The company has optimized its land reserve structure, acquiring 3.29 million square meters of land in 2024, with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan [8] - The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 74.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 346.89 billion yuan, with a projected decline in revenue for the following years [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.0 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual increase to 7.48 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.42 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.62 yuan by 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 19.89 in 2024, decreasing to 13.30 by 2027 [1]