证券研究报告 | 2025年09月12日 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 2025 年核心经销客户会议召开，传递发展信心 |  公司研究·公司快评 | | |  | 食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张向伟 | | | zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090001 | | 证券分析师： | 张未艾 | 021-61761031 | | zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070005 | 事项： 事件：2025 年 9 月 8 日，泸州老窖 2025 年核心经销客户会议在天津召开，会议以"全面转型·客户共赢， 坚定推进数字化营销"为主题，对目前白酒行业的机遇与挑战、未来消费趋势等进行了分析和研判；展望 未来，明晰战略发展方向，传递出携手经销商战略共赢的信心。 国信食饮观点：公司组织管理禀赋突出，营销数智化转型至今成效逐步显现，当前国窖批价表现较为稳定， 渠道考核机制优化下经销商利润得到改善 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Dong'e Ejiao All-Ecological Partner Conference was held in Alxa League, Inner Mongolia, focusing on desertification control through collaborative efforts [1] - Industry experts and representatives participated in a public welfare activity aimed at building a modern ecological sand industry demonstration base, emphasizing the importance of ecological restoration [1] Group 2 - Dong'e Ejiao's "Zhuangben" brand has formed an innovative partnership with Alipay to launch a "Tap to Interact" digital experience, merging digital marketing with ecological protection [3] - This collaboration utilizes lightweight and convenient NFC technology to enhance user engagement in offline scenarios, creating new pathways for interaction in the health sector [3] - The innovative format combines light interaction with an AR digital museum, effectively communicating the growth and cultural background of traditional Chinese medicinal materials in an immersive and engaging manner [3] - Dong'e Ejiao plans to expand this innovative model to a broader product line and user base, aiming to increase consumer awareness and participation in ecological protection through digital means [3]

Core Insights - GEO promotion leverages AI platforms to optimize content, enhancing brand recognition and user trust through a non-intrusive marketing approach [1][3] - The service offers significant cost advantages, with customer acquisition costs being only one-fifth of traditional SEO methods, leading to higher conversion rates [3][4] - The flexibility in pricing and service offerings caters to various business sizes and needs, establishing a strong market presence for companies like Hangzhou Lanshi Information Technology Co., Ltd. [6][7] Group 1: Usability of GEO Promotion - GEO promotion provides an innovative marketing experience by integrating brand information seamlessly into AI responses, improving user acceptance and trust [3] - The service's unique approach contrasts with traditional advertising, resembling personal recommendations that effectively mitigate user resistance to ads [3] Group 2: Cost-Effectiveness of GEO Promotion - The precision of traffic targeting is a key highlight, allowing brands to reach potential customers effectively, thus reducing marketing costs significantly [3] - Once brand information is adopted by AI platforms, it can lead to sustained exposure for up to six months, enhancing long-term promotional effectiveness [4] Group 3: Pricing Structure of GEO Promotion - The pricing for GEO promotion services is diverse, with basic services available at affordable rates for small and medium enterprises looking to explore the service [7] - Customized packages are offered for larger enterprises, with costs varying based on platform coverage, optimization depth, and promotional duration [7] Group 4: Reputation of GEO Promotion - A Kantar 2025 survey indicates that 72% of users find AI recommendations more trustworthy than traditional ads, highlighting the credibility of GEO promotion [7] - Feedback from businesses utilizing GEO promotion shows significant improvements in brand awareness and customer acquisition, reinforcing its positive reputation [7] Group 5: Selection Criteria for GEO Promotion - Companies should clearly define their needs, whether for short-term traffic boosts or long-term brand establishment, influencing their choice of services [7] - Evaluating the promotional company's expertise in optimizing for the six major AI platforms is crucial for ensuring effective marketing outcomes [7] - Reviewing successful case studies from promotional companies can provide insights into service quality and suitability for specific business models [7]

Core Insights - The wine industry is facing a significant challenge as Generation Z consumers are gradually distancing themselves from wine, not due to a lack of interest, but because the industry has not adapted to their needs [1] - Generation Z, as "digital natives," prefers simple, transparent, and authentic consumption experiences, contrasting with the traditional complex terminology of the wine industry [1] Marketing and Consumer Behavior - Traditional wine marketing relies on professional jargon and complex knowledge, which creates a cognitive burden for younger consumers; over two-thirds of Generation Z make purchasing decisions based on product appearance [2] - Young consumers prefer intuitive descriptors like "fresh fruit aroma" and "smooth taste," as well as contextual labels such as "friend gatherings" and "food pairing" to quickly understand product characteristics [2][4] Product Innovation and Design - The industry must innovate product design fundamentally, developing clear and easy-to-read entry-level product lines and collaborating with young designers for visually impactful packaging [4] - Marketing language needs to be revamped to replace jargon with straightforward expressions, ensuring efficient and accurate information transfer to consumers [4] Digital Engagement and Social Media - Social media has become a complete ecosystem for life, socializing, and consumption for Generation Z; over 70% discover new brands through social media, and about 50% are willing to complete the entire purchasing process on these platforms [5] - The pandemic accelerated digitalization and heightened young consumers' focus on health, sustainability, and transparency, leading to a preference for authentic user-generated content over traditional advertising [5] Value-Driven Consumption - Generation Z is reshaping the consumer market with their values; 62% are willing to pay a premium for regional products, and 54% actively check for organic certifications [7] - This value-driven approach is prompting deep changes across the industry, from sustainable farming to eco-friendly packaging and supply chain transparency [7] Sustainability Challenges - While pursuing sustainability, the industry faces challenges such as the high energy consumption in the production of non-alcoholic wines, which contradicts environmental goals [9] - Producers are exploring innovative solutions like naturally low-alcohol options to achieve true sustainability, reflecting a necessary response to market demands and future industry development [9] Mindset Shift - The key to winning over Generation Z lies in a mindset shift within the traditional wine industry, moving from educating them on traditional standards to understanding and adapting to their language and lifestyle [10] - The industry must redefine the role of wine as a simple pleasure to be shared rather than a complex ritual, which will determine its ability to "brew with the future" [10]

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a new adjustment cycle, shifting from "capacity expansion" to "quality improvement, brand influence, cultural expression, and value creation" [2] - Consumer preferences are changing from "quantity satisfaction" to "quality pursuit," with a focus on product value and brand connotation [2] - The younger consumer demographic prefers personalized, lower-alcohol, and self-indulgent liquor options [2] - The consumption scenario is evolving, with a decline in government consumption and a stable growth in self-drinking scenarios [2] Group 2: Company Strategies - The company is focusing on market cultivation, particularly in lower-tier markets, to transform opportunities into sustainable growth [3] - Continuous product innovation is a priority, with plans to promote lower-alcohol products and introduce new offerings like the 28° Guojiao 1573 [3] - The company is reinforcing its core product lines, shifting resources towards popular products to maintain its market position [3] - A channel transformation strategy is in place, enhancing digital marketing and building a comprehensive online and offline sales network [3] Group 3: Financial and Operational Goals - The company aims for a "steady progress" operational goal for 2025, influenced by market conditions and competition [3] - Marketing expenses will be optimized for brand building and consumer engagement, maintaining a reasonable expense ratio [3] Group 4: Market Performance - Key markets such as Sichuan, North China, and East China are performing steadily, with East China showing better results [3] - The company will continue to implement its "2358+100" regional strategy to strengthen its market presence [3]

Core Viewpoint - Haier Smart Home reported a record high revenue of 156.49 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, and a net profit growth of 15.6% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a historical high in both revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1] - Revenue reached 156.49 billion yuan, marking a 10.2% increase year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 15.6% [1] Group 2: Digital Marketing Transformation - Haier Smart Home is focusing on a comprehensive user experience and deepening digital transformation [1] - The company utilized its self-developed digital marketing model to acquire over 520,000 business leads, resulting in a retail revenue of 1.49 billion yuan [1] Group 3: User Co-Creation Initiatives - The company implemented three key initiatives for user co-creation: 1. Establishing a digital insight system for "content co-creation" with users, utilizing AI to capture trending topics and generate relevant content [2] 2. Using AI to efficiently connect with user comments for "product co-creation," transforming user pain points into technical specifications [2] 3. Creating a KOC digital platform to encourage users to share authentic experiences, forming a positive feedback loop for product and service optimization [3] Group 4: User Engagement and Community Building - Haier Smart Home has built a high-engagement user community, with users becoming brand advocates and sharing their experiences on social media [3] - The KOC-AI module tracks user feedback in real-time, enhancing product and service offerings based on user-generated content [3]

Industry Overview - The overall retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, but the growth rate in June was only 1.9%, indicating market demand fluctuations [1] - Cumulative textile and clothing exports amounted to 143.978 billion USD, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.76%, while clothing exports decreased by 0.2%, reflecting challenges from global economic changes and trade policy adjustments [1] Women's Fashion Market - Consumer purchasing habits are significantly changing, with online shopping becoming a major channel, prompting women's clothing companies to increase their digital marketing investments [2] - The demand for women's clothing is evolving beyond basic functionality to include fashion sense, comfort, personalization, and environmental sustainability [2] Winner Fashion - Winner Fashion reported a total revenue of 3.104 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of 6.12% compared to the same period in 2024, indicating cautious consumer spending in the mid-to-high-end women's clothing market [4] - The company achieved a net profit of 289 million yuan, a 2.17% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin rising from 8.55% to 9.31% [4] - Cash flow from operating activities increased significantly by 98.27% to 896 million yuan, showcasing improved working capital management [4] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce channels became a highlight for Winner Fashion, with total revenue from e-commerce platforms reaching 595 million yuan, an increase of 8.88% [5] - The Douyin platform saw a revenue growth of 14.25%, while WeChat video accounts experienced a remarkable 136.45% increase, driven by the company's focus on live-streaming sales and collaborations with KOLs [5] Brand Performance - Winner Fashion's high-end brand La Koradior achieved a revenue growth of 9.65% to 280 million yuan, reflecting strong demand from high-income consumers [6] - The core brand Koradior generated 1.044 billion yuan, accounting for 33.64% of total revenue, showing stability despite a slight decline [6] - Other brands like NAERSI and ELSEWHERE faced revenue declines, indicating the need for strategic adjustments [6] Anzheng Fashion - Anzheng Fashion demonstrated strong growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 1.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.38% [8] - The company achieved a net profit of 22.0834 million yuan, a significant increase of 282.36% [8] - E-commerce became a key growth driver, with the e-commerce service segment growing by 9.34% [9] Jin Hong Group - Jin Hong Group reported a revenue decline of 4.04% to 1.994 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 23.03% to 114 million yuan [11] - The company is transitioning from a "product manufacturer" to a "cultural operator," integrating cultural elements into product design [12] Daybo Fashion - Daybo Fashion experienced a revenue decline of 7.92% to 378 million yuan, but net profit turned positive at 38.2876 million yuan, a significant improvement [15] - The company implemented cost control measures, reducing sales and management expenses, which contributed to profit growth [15] Dizhu Fashion - Dizhu Fashion's revenue decreased by 5.55% to 1.067 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 23.54% [18] - The company faces challenges in the mid-to-high-end women's clothing segment, with consumer purchasing behavior becoming more rational [19] Ge Li Si - Ge Li Si reported a slight revenue decline to 1.371 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 45.3% to 85.06 million yuan [22] - The brand matrix showed strong performance, particularly in online sales, which grew by 21% [24] Tai Ping Bird - Tai Ping Bird's total revenue fell by 7.86% to 2.898 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 54.61% [26] - The company is actively adjusting its channel structure, focusing on flagship and collection stores [27] Langzi Co. - Langzi Co. achieved a revenue of 2.788 billion yuan, a decline of 4.3%, but net profit increased by 64.09% to 274 million yuan [30] - The company is enhancing its digital operations and expanding its online sales channels [31] Xin He Co. - Xin He Co. reported a revenue increase of 0.78% to 707 million yuan and a net profit growth of 214.92% to 14.6979 million yuan [34] - The company improved its profitability through effective cost control and marketing strategies [35] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The women's clothing industry is experiencing a divergence in performance among major companies, influenced by market conditions, brand strategies, channel layouts, and cost control [37] - Future opportunities include the growing demand for personalized, high-quality, and sustainable women's clothing, alongside the integration of digital technologies in operations [39] - Companies are encouraged to strengthen brand positioning, innovate products, and optimize channel strategies to adapt to changing consumer preferences [40]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, primarily due to challenges in the white liquor market and a competitive environment affecting sales performance [2][3][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 4.593 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.094 billion yuan, representing a decline of 19.24% year-on-year [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million yuan, down by 250 million yuan, marking a decline of 59.09% compared to the same period last year [2][10]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter revenue of 1.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.12%, and a net profit of -109 million yuan, reflecting a dramatic decline of 290.89% [10]. Business Segments - The white liquor segment accounted for 78.51% of total revenue, generating 3.606 billion yuan, while the pork business contributed 19.36% with 889 million yuan in revenue, remaining stable year-on-year [2][10]. - The white liquor business faced a downturn due to reduced sales volume amid industry adjustments, impacting overall revenue and profit levels [3]. - The pork business implemented a strategy focused on brand building and enhancing the supply chain, resulting in a reduction in losses during the reporting period [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company adopted a "1-2-12-3+" marketing strategy for its white liquor segment, focusing on product innovation, marketing innovation, and brand expansion to attract younger consumers [5]. - Efforts included upgrading product formulas, enhancing brand visibility, and integrating cultural tourism into marketing strategies [5][6]. - The pork segment plans to improve product freshness, enhance brand marketing, and expand sales channels to increase market share [8]. Future Outlook - The company is exploring digital marketing innovations and partnerships with third-party platforms to enhance brand exposure and sales [6][7]. - The breeding segment showed improvement with slight revenue growth and profitability during the reporting period [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shunxin Agriculture, is experiencing a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to challenges in the white liquor industry and a strategic focus on brand development in the pork business [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shunxin Agriculture achieved operating revenue of 4.593 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.094 billion yuan, representing a decline of 19.24% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million yuan, down by 250 million yuan, marking a decline of 59.09% [2]. - The revenue contributions from the white liquor and pork segments were 78.51% and 19.36%, respectively, with the white liquor segment generating 3.606 billion yuan and the pork segment generating 889 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Business Segment Analysis - The decline in net profit is attributed to reduced sales volume in the white liquor sector due to industry adjustments, while the pork business has managed to reduce losses through a strategic focus on brand development [3]. - The white liquor business is implementing a marketing strategy focused on product renewal, targeting younger consumers, and enhancing brand visibility through digital marketing and collaborations [4]. - The pork segment has shown slight revenue growth and profitability improvements, driven by market-oriented management and the exploration of a professional management mechanism [5].

Core Viewpoint - Tian Di Online (002995) reported a significant decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in its business model and financial performance [1]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 654 million yuan, a decrease of 9.86% compared to 725 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -33.44 million yuan, reflecting a 49.41% decline year-on-year from -22.38 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin was 4.93%, down 21.97% from 6.31% in the previous year [1]. - The net margin was -4.68%, a decrease of 52.69% from -3.07% [1]. - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 50.80 million yuan, representing 7.77% of revenue, an increase of 32.37% year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Assets - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of 286 million yuan, a slight increase of 2.28% from 280 million yuan [1]. - Accounts receivable decreased by 19.96% to 125 million yuan from 156 million yuan [1]. - The company’s interest-bearing debt rose by 27.65% to 3.51 million yuan from 2.75 million yuan [1]. - Operating cash flow per share was 0.01 yuan, a significant increase of 102.84% from -0.48 yuan [1]. Business Model and Market Position - The company provides digital marketing services and integrated smart services, focusing on customer needs and offering comprehensive digital marketing solutions [3]. - Historical data indicates a median Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 24.31%, but the worst year recorded a ROIC of -7.18%, suggesting a fragile business model [3]. - The company has experienced two years of losses since its listing, indicating potential vulnerabilities in its business operations [3].