Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Report Author: Tu Weihua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price weakened and declined, with a daily decline of 1.58%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the supply - demand pattern of rebar improved before the holiday, downstream performance remained sluggish, demand concerns persisted, the fundamental improvement was questionable, and the upward driving force was weak. With the fermentation of concerns about production cut negative feedback, steel prices were under pressure again and were seeking a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in position on the futures market [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.22%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. In the current supply - demand weakness situation, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils were weak, the high - supply pressure remained, and prices were under pressure. With the fermentation of concerns about production cut negative feedback, it was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly before the holiday. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fell from a high level, with a daily decline of 1.74%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore was okay, supporting the ore price, but supply was rising, demand benefits were weakening, the supply - demand pattern was weakening, and the over - valued ore price was under pressure again. Coupled with concerns about production cut negative feedback, the ore price was expected to be under pressure again and fall from a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Trump announced that the US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [6]. - More than twenty regions have issued concentrated local subsidies for automobiles. Since entering the "Golden September", relevant local policies on a new round of automobile subsidies have been intensively issued, and the subsidy policies have significantly stimulated the automobile market. As of September 10, the number of applications for automobile trade - ins this year has reached 8.3 million [7]. - 208 steel enterprises have completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation. On September 25, Xining Special Steel Co., Ltd. announced its progress in ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and so far, 208 steel enterprises have made announcements on the CISA website [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Product | Location | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) | Shanghai | 3,230 | - 30 | | | Tianjin | 3,220 | - 10 | | | National Average | 3,292 | - 14 | | Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) | Shanghai | 3,390 | - 10 | | | Tianjin | 3,300 | - 30 | | | National Average | 3,427 | - 12 | | Tangshan billet (Q235) | - | 3,030 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) | - | 2,160 | 0 | | 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) | - | 783 | - 13 | | Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) | - | 802 | 4 | | Ocean freight (Australia) | - | 10.90 | 0.08 | | Ocean freight (Brazil) | - | 25.83 | 0.62 | | SGX swap (current month) | - | 105.60 | - 0.10 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | 106.10 | - 0.40 | | Coil - rebar price difference | - | 160 | 2 | | Rebar - scrap price difference | - | 1,070 | - 30 | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Product | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,114 | - 1.58 | 3,171 | 3,113 | 1,388,756 | 505,741 | 1,976,545 | 106,096 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,313 | - 1.22 | 3,359 | 3,312 | 612,844 | 275,416 | 1,391,208 | 21,492 | | Iron ore | - | 790.0 | - 1.74 | 806.0 | 788.0 | 326,907 | 135,724 | 508,929 | - 20,811 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [15][17]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [20][24][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts of 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, 247 steel mills' profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit - loss situation [29][31][33]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern continued to improve marginally. Rebar production increased slightly week - on - week, but due to poor profitability, the short - term production increase momentum was weak, and supply was stable at a low level. However, there was a pressure of inventory increase during the holiday, and the positive effect was limited. Demand continued to improve, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 10.41 tons week - on - week, but high - frequency trading was weak, and both supply and demand were at low levels in recent years. The improvement space in the peak season was questionable. Before the holiday, although the supply - demand pattern improved, downstream performance was sluggish, demand concerns remained, the fundamental improvement was questionable, the upward driving force was weak, and steel prices were under pressure again and seeking a bottom weakly [37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continued to be weak, and inventory continued to increase. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.30 tons week - on - week, and inventory was high, so the supply pressure was still large. Demand resilience weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 0.14 tons week - on - week, and high - frequency trading declined. Although the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products increased significantly, industrial contradictions persisted, which was likely to drag down hot - rolled coil demand. It was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly before the holiday [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern weakened, and inventory increased significantly. Steel mill production was stable, and ore terminal consumption was high. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills increased week - on - week, and demand was okay, supporting the ore price. However, the restocking was coming to an end, and steel market contradictions were accumulating, so the positive effect was expected to weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments were still at a high level, and domestic ore supply recovered. The high - valued ore price was under pressure again and was expected to fall from a high level [38].

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in local automotive subsidy policies across various regions in China, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period, aimed at boosting car sales through trade-in and promotional activities [1][2] - Specific cities like Handan and Zhengzhou have initiated substantial subsidy programs, with Zhengzhou offering a total of 560 million yuan in green vehicle purchase subsidies, while Handan is providing trade-in vouchers valid until October 31 [1][2] - The highest single vehicle subsidy is reported in cities like Nanjing and Qingdao, reaching up to 8,000 yuan, with Nanjing's program running from September 5 to December 31, emphasizing that these local subsidies do not overlap with national or provincial programs [2] Group 2 - Over 20 provinces and cities have introduced new consumer subsidy policies in September, including major cities like Beijing, Chongqing, and Guangzhou, indicating a widespread effort to stimulate the automotive market [2] - The effectiveness of these subsidy policies is evident, with 8.3 million applications for vehicle trade-ins recorded by September 10, and Wuhan reporting a total of 17.9 billion yuan in trade-in subsidies, which significantly boosted local car sales [2][3] - Industry experts suggest that to further enhance automotive consumption, it is crucial to balance policies for electric and fuel vehicles, propose a clear timeline for trade-in subsidies, and shift focus from purchase incentives to broader consumption and service areas [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic automotive dealership industry is facing significant challenges due to long rebate redemption periods, price inversions, and inventory accumulation, compounded by new issues arising from inconsistent local subsidies [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Rhythm Disruption - The phenomenon of "same city, different subsidies" is widespread, disrupting normal market order and forcing dealers in non-subsidized areas to incur losses to remain competitive [5][6]. - A survey of 40 major automotive brands indicates that this issue is affecting market stability, with larger dealers able to exploit subsidy differences, leading to unfair competition [5][6]. - Many dealers express a preference for no subsidies over the current system, which they believe creates more market instability [5][6]. Group 2: Impact of Subsidy Variability - The inconsistency in subsidy amounts and timing across different regions leads to consumer hesitation and market disruption [3][4]. - The automotive consumption subsidy system is jointly funded by national and local governments, with local authorities having some discretion in subsidy distribution, which contributes to the variability [10][11]. - The current subsidy structure includes specific amounts for scrapping old vehicles and purchasing new ones, but local variations in implementation are common [11][12]. Group 3: Suspension of Subsidies - The sudden suspension of subsidies has a more significant impact on the market than the "same city, different subsidies" issue, causing unrest among consumers and dealers [14][15]. - Since mid-May, several regions have paused their subsidy applications, leading to increased consumer uncertainty [14]. - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan for consumption upgrades, with plans to resume subsidies in areas that have temporarily halted them [14][15].

Core Points - Guangzhou government has launched a special automotive consumption promotion activity with a total subsidy of 300 million yuan, running from September 15 to 30 [1] - Individual consumers purchasing new cars priced at 100,000 yuan (including tax) or above can receive a cash subsidy of up to 5,000 yuan [1] - The initiative aims to stimulate automotive sales, with an expected sales boost of over 8 billion yuan [1] Subsidy Details - Consumers can receive 4,000 yuan for cars priced between 100,000 yuan and 200,000 yuan, and 5,000 yuan for cars priced above 200,000 yuan [1] - Each consumer is eligible for the subsidy only once during the promotional period [1] - In addition to government cash subsidies, consumers will also receive supplementary benefits valued at no less than 1,000 yuan or 2,000 yuan from the activity platform [1] Activity Structure - The promotion operates on a "total amount control, first come first served, while supplies last" basis [1] - The total funding for the subsidies is capped at 300 million yuan [1] - The initiative is expected to significantly enhance automotive sales in the region [1]

Group 1 - The Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce is launching a special automotive consumption promotion event from September 15 to 30, 2023, offering cash subsidies for new car purchases [1] - Individual consumers purchasing new cars priced at 100,000 yuan (including tax) or above can receive a maximum government cash subsidy of 5,000 yuan, with specific subsidy amounts based on the car price range [1] - The total subsidy fund for the event is set at 300 million yuan, which is expected to drive automotive sales exceeding 8 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The special event is part of the 2025 Guangzhou International Shopping Festival, aiming to enhance the city's role as an international trade center by stimulating automotive consumption [2] - Guangzhou has significant automotive consumption potential, with over 1.6 billion yuan in subsidies for vehicle trade-in policies this year, leading to over 26 billion yuan in automotive sales [2] - The 2025 Guangzhou International Shopping Festival will feature various promotional activities across different districts, focusing on consumer interests in food, entertainment, shopping, and purchasing [2]

Group 1 - Guangzhou has launched a special initiative to promote automobile consumption, running from September 15 to 30, with a total subsidy of 300 million yuan [1] - Individual consumers purchasing new passenger cars with a tax-inclusive price of 100,000 yuan or more during this period can receive a maximum government subsidy of 5,000 yuan [1] - In addition to the government cash subsidy, consumers can also receive a value package worth no less than 1,000 yuan or 2,000 yuan from the activity platform [1]

9月14日，记者从江苏省商务厅获悉，为促进汽车消费让更多市民享受购车实惠，苏州市正式推出2025年汽车焕新补贴政策。 | 车价(以购车发票上的 | 补贴金额 | | --- | --- | | 含税价为准) | | | 10万元（不含）以下 | 1000元/辆 | | 10万元(含)至20万元 | 2000元/辆 | | (不含) | | | 20万元(含)至30万元 | 4000元/辆 | | (不含) | | | 30万元(含)至40万元 | 6000元/辆 | | (不含) | | | 40万元 (含) 以上 | 8000元/辆 | 补贴标准 执行时间为2025年9月5日至12月31日。资金先到先得，用完即止。支付定（订）金时间、合同签订时间、发票开具时间及上牌时间均须在活动时间内。 对在苏州市参与活动的汽车经销企业处购买乘用车新车的个人消费者（营运车辆及公牌不参加），按照相关标准予以补贴。乘用车是指符合公安部《道路 交通管理机动车类型》中机动车规格术语分类表规定的小型、微型载客汽车。这意味着，燃油车、新能源汽车都补。 补贴标准方面，车价（以购车发票上的含税价为准）金额10万元（不含）以下补贴1000元 ...

购车补贴来了 最高补5000元 采取"总额控制、先到先得、用完即止"原则 记者9月14日从广州市商务局获悉，广州市促进汽车消费专项活动启动，消费者在9月15日至30日购车， 最高补贴5000元。 据了解，个人消费者在活动期间购买含税价10万元（含）以上的小客车新车，最高可获5000元政府补 贴。此外，在享受政府现金补贴的基础上，个人消费者还可获得活动平台提供的价值不低于1000元或不 低于2000元的配套权益包。 作为广州市人民政府主办的2025广州国际购物节的重磅活动之一，"激情全运会 惠购迎国庆"促进汽车 消费专项活动，联动全市汽车、金融、电商、零售等多方市场主体，充分发挥汽车消费带动作用，进一 步增强广州国际商贸中心功能。本轮活动资金补贴总额3亿元，预计带动汽车销售超80亿元。 9月至12月期间，2025广州国际购物节以"激情全运 畅购广州"为主题，按照"1+10+N"模式开展。主会场 及启动仪式将于9月29日在天河区天河路—珠江新城商圈盛大启幕。购物节期间，围绕消费者关心的"好 吃""好玩""好逛""好购"四大领域，按照"一区一主题"原则，各区结合实际设立区主会场，开展N场丰富 多彩的购物节系列活动， ...

Core Points - The Guangxi region is launching a new car purchase subsidy program from September 15, 2025, to January 10, 2026, aimed at boosting new car consumption with subsidies up to 5,000 yuan per vehicle [1][2] Group 1: Subsidy Details - Consumers purchasing new passenger vehicles from participating dealerships can apply for a one-time fixed subsidy after obtaining a unified invoice and completing vehicle registration [1] - The subsidy is tiered based on the invoice amount: 2,000 yuan for vehicles priced between 30,000 yuan and 80,000 yuan, 3,000 yuan for those priced between 80,000 yuan and 200,000 yuan, and 5,000 yuan for vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan [1] - The invoice date for vehicle sales must be between September 5, 2025, and December 31, 2025, and the vehicle registration date must be between September 5, 2025, and January 10, 2026 [1] Group 2: Application Process - Eligible vehicle owners can submit their subsidy applications through the Yunshanfu App after obtaining the unified invoice and completing vehicle registration, with a deadline of January 10, 2026 [2] - The subsidy will be distributed in the form of a red envelope to the applicant's Yunshanfu App account [2]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Suzhou has announced a new subsidy policy aimed at promoting automobile consumption and reducing the cost of purchasing vehicles for residents, with a total subsidy fund of 200 million yuan allocated for this initiative [1] Group 1: Subsidy Policy Details - The subsidy policy will be effective from September 5, 2025, to December 31, 2025, and will operate on a "first come, first served" basis until the funds are exhausted [1] - The subsidy is specifically targeted at individual consumers purchasing new passenger vehicles from participating dealerships in Suzhou, excluding commercial vehicles and public license plates [1] - Both fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles are eligible for the subsidy, which applies to small and micro passenger cars as defined by the Ministry of Public Security [1] Group 2: Participation and Implementation - The list of participating automobile dealerships will be updated dynamically, and residents can scan a QR code to check the current list [1] - Key timelines for eligibility include the payment of deposits, contract signing, invoice issuance, and vehicle registration, all of which must occur within the specified subsidy period [1]