油脂油料市场
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油脂油料早报-20250718
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:53
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on US soybean and soybean meal exports, as well as adjustments to Brazil's soybean export, production, and processing estimates, and changes in Malaysia's palm oil export tax [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending on the 10th, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 801,500 tons as expected. Current - market - year soybean export sales had a net increase of 271,900 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week and a 39% decrease from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean export sales had a net increase of 529,600 tons. US soybean export shipments were 276,400 tons, a 30% decrease from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the four - week average. Current - market - year new soybean sales were 300,600 tons, and next - market - year new soybean sales were 529,800 tons [1]. - For the week ending on the 10th, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 530,500 tons as expected. Current - market - year soybean meal export sales had a net increase of 356,500 tons, a 72% increase from the previous week and an 86% increase from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean meal export sales had a net increase of 174,000 tons. US soybean meal export shipments were 343,200 tons, a 17% increase from the previous week and a 26% increase from the four - week average. Current - market - year new soybean meal sales were 410,400 tons, and next - market - year new soybean meal sales were 179,800 tons [1]. Brazil's Soybean Estimates - Abiove raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean export estimate from 108.2 million tons to 109 million tons, maintained the production estimate at 169.7 million tons, and increased the soybean crushing estimate from 57.5 million tons to 57.8 million tons. The increase in the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio in diesel boosted the outlook for Brazil's soybean processing volume to a record high. The 2024/25 soybean meal export estimate was maintained at 23.6 million tons, the soybean oil export estimate was lowered from 1.4 million tons to 1.35 million tons, the soybean oil production estimate was raised from 11.45 million tons to 11.6 million tons, and the soybean meal production estimate was increased from 44.1 million tons to 44.5 million tons [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil - Malaysia raised its monthly reference price for crude palm oil, increasing the export tax to 9%. The monthly reference price was 3,864.12 Malaysian ringgit ($910.28) per ton, compared to 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton with an 8.5% export tax previously [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from July 11 to July 17, 2025, are presented. For example, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased from 2,810 to 2,860, and the price of rapeseed meal in Guangdong increased from 2,520 to 2,600 [2]. Others - The report also mentions protein meal basis [3], grease basis [6], and grease and oilseed futures price spreads [7] but does not provide detailed data.
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250716
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 09:18
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the July USDA report on soybeans is neutral to bearish, with US soybean futures prices breaking down after the report. However, the biodiesel policy will support prices, and US soybeans are expected to trade in a range. In China, the ample supply will limit the upside, and Dalian soybean meal is also expected to trade sideways [3]. - The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market, but high - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. With strong demand, especially from India, palm oil prices are expected to be supported. The fundamentals of the oil market have limited changes, and the overall market is expected to remain volatile [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8012 for soybean oil, 8708 for palm oil, 9404 for rapeseed oil, 2978 for soybean meal, 2651 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 18, - 40, - 20, - 14, 133, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.23%, - 0.46%, - 3.15%, - 0.47%, 5.28%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., and ratios like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, etc., are provided, along with their previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4109 for BMD palm oil (in ringgit per ton), 1003 for CBOT soybeans (in cents per bushel), 54 for CBOT soybean oil (in cents per pound), and 280 for CBOT soybean meal (in dollars per ton). The price changes were - 6, - 5, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.15%, - 0.47%, 0.76%, and - 0.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions, along with their percentage changes, are provided. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8210 with a 0.24% change [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current and previous values of spot basis and spreads for different products are given, such as the spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, etc., and the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, etc. [1]. Import and Crush Profit - The current and previous values of import and crush profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, etc., are presented [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are provided [1][2]. Industry Information - **Brazil Exports**: Brazil's estimated exports in July are 1219 million tons of soybeans, 225 million tons of soybean meal, and 460 million tons of corn, which are higher than previous estimates [3]. - **Malaysia Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 were 621770 tons, a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month. According to Amspec, the exports were 574121 tons, a 5.29% decrease [3]. - **USDA Report on Soybeans**: The USDA reduced the estimated planted and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, while keeping the yield per acre unchanged. The production estimate was reduced, but the crush volume was increased, and the export volume was slightly decreased, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory [3]. - **India's Vegetable Oil Imports**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6% [3].
油脂油料早报-20250627
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View The reports mainly present overnight market information, production, export data, and spot prices of the oil and fat industry. Key data include US soybean export sales, Brazilian crop production forecasts, and Malaysian palm - oil production and export data. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Overnight Market Information - For the week ending June 19, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 53.95 million tons, up 779% from the previous week and 204% from the four - week average; next - market - year export sales net increased by 7.52 million tons. Export shipments were 40.61 million tons, down 10% from the previous week but up 33% from the four - week average. New sales for the current and next market years were 54.99 million tons and 7.52 million tons respectively [1]. - On June 26, private exporters reported selling 110,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for the 2024/2025 market - year delivery [1]. - Datagro raised Brazil's 2024/25 corn production forecast to 134 million tons, nearly 1% higher than the previous estimate and 10% higher than 2023/24; soybean harvest was estimated at 173.5 million tons, about 0.8% higher than the previous estimate and 12% higher than 2023/24 [1]. - From June 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm - oil production increased 3.83% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 4.09% and oil extraction rate down 0.05%. Export volume was 748,145 tons, a 21.02% decrease from the previous month [1]. Spot Prices - From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the spot prices of bean meal in Jiangsu decreased from 2900 to 2790; rapeseed meal in Guangdong decreased from 2550 to 2420; soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased from 8390 to 8220; palm oil in Guangzhou decreased from 8740 to 8510; and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased from 9900 to 9620 [2].
油脂油料早报-20250618
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 04:02
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean export volume in a certain month is expected to be 1,437 million tons, 2% higher than the previous week's forecast and over 50 million tons more than last year; the expected export volume of Brazilian soybean meal is 197 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous week's forecast [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production in a certain month reached 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase, the highest in the same period since 2015 due to favorable weather; exports soared 25.62% to 1.38 million tons, mainly driven by strong demand from China and India, and the export momentum is expected to continue until the third quarter; short - term production may slow down and production activities in a certain month are expected to decrease [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Export Sales - A private exporter reported the sale of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to an unknown destination for shipment in the 2025/2026 market year [1] Brazil's Exports - Brazil's soybean export volume in a certain month is expected to be 1,437 million tons, 2% higher than the previous week's forecast, and over 50 million tons more than last year; the expected export volume of soybean meal is 197 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous week's forecast [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production in a certain month reached 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase, the highest in the same period since 2015; exports increased by 25.62% (+283,000 tons) to 1.38 million tons, mainly due to strong demand from China and India; short - term production may slow down and production activities in a certain month are expected to decrease [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are provided [2] Basis - Protein meal basis and oil basis are mentioned, but no specific data is provided [3] Futures Spread - The term "oil and oilseed futures spread" is mentioned, but no specific content is provided
油脂油料早报-20250609
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:33
1. Market Information - As of the week ending June 1st, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 9.4% to 175,100 tons compared with the previous week, and from August 1st, 2024, to June 1st, 2025, exports reached 8.5237 million tons, a 60.1% increase year-on-year. The commercial inventory of rapeseed in Canada as of June 1st was 970,500 tons [1] - From June 1st - 5th, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% month-on-month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 19.16% and oil extraction rate down 0.01% [1] - As of June 5th, the harvest rate of Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop was 91%, lower than 94% in the same period last year [1] - Brazilian producers have sold 64% of their expected 2024/25 soybean output, over 11 billion tons, with sales delayed. Sales increased by 7 percentage points but were lower than last year's 71.8% and the five - year average of 76.9%. For the next year, 10.8% of expected output has been pre - sold, compared with 14.6% last year and an average of 20.6% [1] 2. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 30th to June 6th, 2025, are provided, showing fluctuations in prices during this period [3] 3. Other Information - Information on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oil and oilseed futures spreads is mentioned, but no specific data is given [4]
油脂油料早报-20250529
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 03:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for a certain month to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff will be $52 per ton, down from $74 per ton last month [1]. - The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season has been lowered by 1% to 18 million tons due to deteriorating soil moisture conditions in key growing areas, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% compared to the previous year [1]. - The estimated production of Australian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season is 6.2 million tons, supported by the long - term weather outlook [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **Indonesia Palm Oil**: Indonesia reduced the reference price of crude palm oil for a month to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff dropped to $52 per ton from $74 per ton last month [1]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The 2025/26 season production estimate was cut by 1% to 18 million tons. The planting area is expected to be 8.59 million hectares, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year and 1.9% less than Statistics Canada's estimate. The USDA's latest estimate is 19.5 million tons. As of now, Saskatchewan's sowing is 72% complete, higher than the annual and 10 - year averages. However, soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is at a six - year low, and the weather in western Canada's main rapeseed - growing areas is expected to be warmer and drier during the main growing season [1]. - **Australian Rapeseed**: The 2025/26 season production estimate is 6.2 million tons. The seasonal weather model shows that precipitation and temperature conditions in the main growing areas will be close to normal from a certain month to November, and sufficient rainfall is expected in the next 10 days [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 22 to May 28, 2025 are provided [2]. Protein Meal and Oil Basis - Basis data for different months (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in East China from 2020/2021 to 2024/2025 are presented [3].
2025二季度生猪及饲料市场展望
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 07:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of the pig market continues to put pressure on pig prices, but the decline in the first quarter was weaker than expected. The second quarter will continue to focus on supply pressure, and there is a risk of compression in pig prices and breeding profits [3][4]. - Policy support for the corn market is nearing its end, and in the fourth quarter, it will be tested whether downstream consumption can support prices [5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global oilseed and fat market first rose and then fell, with the domestic market outperforming the international market. The second quarter will continue to be troubled by trade uncertainties, and attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents First Part: Factors Affecting the Pig Market in the Second Quarter - Pig prices in the first quarter were stronger than expected, but supply pressure still exists. The terminal demand entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and pig prices oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - Affected by the change in the mentality of the breeding side, the price of piglets first rose, then fell, and then rose again in the first quarter [3]. - The inventory of breeding sows decreased for two consecutive months. If this trend continues, the supply pressure in the second half of the year will be substantially improved [3]. - In the first quarter, the slaughter weight of pigs first decreased and then increased. The import volume of pork decreased as domestic pig prices were at a low level [3][4]. - The breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, while that of purchasing piglets increased. The slaughter opening rate was higher than the same period last year, but it was not driven by the increase in terminal demand [4]. - In the futures market, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of increased inventory will continue to affect spot pig prices and long - term trading sentiment [4]. Second Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Corn Market - From January to March, the prices of US wheat and corn first rose and then fell. Affected by weather, policy, and other factors, the CBOT grain futures prices declined jointly [5]. - The spot price of domestic corn rose with the futures price. By the end of March, the average domestic corn spot price increased by 163 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January. After mid - March, due to multiple negative factors, the futures and spot prices of corn fell back [5]. - The 5 - month contract of corn oscillated repeatedly at the 2300 - yuan integer mark, and the market was worried about the lack of upward space in the future. Pay attention to the price performance of the 5 - month corn futures price at the previous support level of 2260 [6]. - The supply of new - season corn is expected to increase, and the inventory in the quarterly report at the end of March decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period. The ratio of US soybeans to corn is at a low level, which is conducive to the expansion of corn planting area [15][29][39]. - Affected by policies and other factors, the import of corn and its substitutes decreased in 2025, which increased the consumption of domestic corn. In the second quarter, the problem of limited supply of imported corn and substitutes will still appear periodically [52]. - In early April, the average price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased. The price of wheat followed the rise of corn in March and continued to oscillate weakly in April. The supply of wheat was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand was weak [55]. - In mid - April, the operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased, and the processing in Shandong was in a state of loss. The contradiction in the starch market was prominent, and the support from the demand side was insufficient [56]. Third Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Soybean Meal Market - The global oilseed and fat trade pattern has changed. Brazil supplies soybeans to China, the EU, etc., the US supplies soybeans to other regions, and Canadian rapeseed competes for the US soybean market [105]. - China's pig industry has strong demand for replenishment, which increases the demand for feed. The price is strong in stages, and the supply pressure is postponed [112]. - From January to February 2025, the feed output increased year - on - year, and the consumption of soybean meal also increased [116]. - The inventory of soybeans in China showed an inflection point in April, but the soybean procurement of oil mills from June to September was slow [119]. - The spot basis of soybean meal weakened, and the inter - month spread changed from backwardation to contango [121]. Fourth Part: Outlook for the Future Market - In the second quarter, pay attention to tariffs and weather for the US corn market. The policy support of CGC is nearing its end, and it will be tested whether downstream demand can accept high - priced raw materials [66][68]. - Russia's corn production has decreased, and the toxin content in domestic corn is high. The CBOT corn has emerged from the trough. In the future, Sino - US relations will determine the country of import and the rhythm [70]. - In the first quarter, the price of US corn rebounded to the profit range. The market expects an increase in the sown area of new - season corn, and the area will be confirmed in June [77]. - In the first quarter, the spot price of corn rebounded, and the futures price followed. The basis of the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts returned to normal. In the second quarter, the market will speculate on the sowing and cost changes of new - season grain [84]. - In 2024, the cost of corn planting decreased by 15 - 20%. The market expects the cost of corn planting in the new year to decrease by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [90]. - The by - products of starch rose and fell alternately. In 2024, the spread between starch and corn mainly widened. In 2025, pay attention to starch exports and the substitution of tapioca starch [97]. - In 2024, the supply of corn exceeded demand, and the price declined all the way. In 2025, it remains to be seen whether the strengthening of supply and demand can drive the price to rise continuously [102].