证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 29136 | 32983 | 55334 | 62189 | 66938 | | 同比增长 | 2% | 13% | 68% | 12% | 8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 6786 | 7828 | 12748 | 14879 | 16346 | | 同比增长 | -12% | 15% | 63% | 17% | 10% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 5651 | 6338 | 10747 | 12600 | 13876 | | 同比增长 | -10% | 12% | 70% | 17% | 10% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.77 | 0.86 | 1.47 | 1.72 | 1.89 | | PE | 20.1 | 17.9 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 8.2 | | PB | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [5][6] - The decline in coal prices has improved cost conditions, while the price spread of olefins continues to expand, leading to an increase in product profit margins [6] - The company is entering a phase of rapid capacity release, with significant year-on-year growth in olefin production and sales [6] - The establishment of a third base in Xinjiang is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities for the company [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Baofeng Energy's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute declines of -13.42% over the past month [4] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in revenue, with expected operating income of 53.07 billion yuan in 2025, up 60.9% year-on-year [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 125.7% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 1.95 yuan in 2025 [8] Production and Capacity - The first series of the Inner Mongolia coal-to-olefins project has reached full production capacity, contributing to the increase in olefin output [6] - The company plans to complete the ramp-up of three production lines in the first half of 2025, which will further enhance production capacity [6] Strategic Developments - The Xinjiang coal-to-olefins project is progressing, with a planned capacity of 4 million tons per year, marking the company's third major production base [6] - Ongoing projects in Ningdong and Inner Mongolia are also in the planning stages, indicating robust long-term growth potential [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：15.48 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -13.42 | -10.74 | -11.17 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -6.90 | -5.45 | -8.71 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 3.《宝丰能源(600989 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 一季度归母净利同环比提升，内蒙古烯烃逐步放量 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 基础化工·化学原料 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 余双雨 | 021-60375485 | yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523120001 | 事项： 事件：宝丰能源发布 2025 年一季度业绩预增公告。宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 预计 2025 年一季度实现归母净利润 23.50 亿元至 25.00 亿元，与上年同期相比增加 9.29 亿元到 10.79 亿 元，同比增长 65.38%到 75.93%。业绩预增的主要原因系内蒙古 300 万吨/年烯烃项目投入试生产，烯烃产 品产销量显著增加；气化原料煤、动力煤价格回落，烯烃产品利润率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][15][21] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [2][3] - The primary driver for this profit increase is the gradual ramp-up of the Inner Mongolia 3 million tons/year olefin project, which has significantly boosted olefin product output and sales [2][3] - The decline in the prices of gasification raw coal and thermal coal has improved the profit margins of olefin products [2][10] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of 12.206 billion, 12.413 billion, and 13.267 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 1.69, and 1.81 yuan [15][19] Production Capacity Expansion - The olefin production capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million tons to 5.2 million tons per year, with ongoing projects in Ningdong Phase IV and Xinjiang [8][14] Cost Advantages - The average cost of coal-based olefins is projected to be 6,556 yuan/ton, while oil-based olefins are at 8,027 yuan/ton, giving coal-based olefins a cost advantage of approximately 1,471 yuan/ton [10][19]

公司研究 2025.03.15 宝丰能源（ 600989） 公司点评报告 24Q4 归母净利环比增 46%，内蒙项目逐步达效 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 张汪强 | 登记编号：S1220524120002 | | --- | --- | | 韩翀宇 | 登记编号：S1220524110003 | 强烈推荐 ( 首 次 ) | 公 司 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | 煤化工 | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | 17.5 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | 1,283.34 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | 17.84/14.20 | 历史表现 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24/3/15 24/6/14 24/9/13 24/12/13 宝丰能源 沪深300 数据来源：wind 方正证券研究所 相关研究 事件：宝丰能源发布 2024 年报，报告期内公司实现营业总收入 329.83 亿 元，同比+13.21%；实现归母净利润 63.38 亿元，同比+12.16%。其中，四 季度公司实现营业总收入 87 ...

[Table_Title] 烯烃量利双增，规划新疆煤制烯烃项目 ——宝丰能源（600989）2024 年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 宝丰能源 | 0.0% | 4.5% | 13.4% | | 沪深 300 | 0.2% | -2.5% | 9.2% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/12 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 17.00 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 14.03-19.07 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 124,667.12 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 124,667.12 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 733,336.00 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 733,336.00 | | 日均成交额（百万） | | | 753.45 | | 近一月换手（%） | | | 0.38 | 相关报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [7][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 33 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.21%, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 6.34 billion, up 12.16% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7]. - The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is anticipated to double the company's output, significantly boosting revenue and profits [8]. - The company is well-positioned as a leader in the domestic coal-to-olefins sector, with a favorable outlook for long-term growth [8]. Summary by Sections Company Information - The company operates in the chemical industry, with a current A-share price of RMB 17.00 as of March 12, 2025, and a market capitalization of RMB 124.67 billion [2]. - Major shareholder is Ningxia Baofeng Group, holding 35.65% of shares [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has consistently received "Buy" ratings in recent evaluations, with the latest rating issued on August 12, 2024 [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6.34 billion for 2024, with a significant increase in polyethylene and polypropylene sales, up 36% and 55% year-on-year, respectively [8][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.4598 per share to minority shareholders, representing a dividend payout ratio of 47.44% of net profit [7][13]. Production Capacity and Cost Management - The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be fully operational by 2025, with a total olefin capacity of 5.2 million tons per year, making the company a leader in the coal-to-olefins industry [8]. - The report highlights a decrease in raw material coal prices, which is expected to enhance profit margins [10]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 10.86 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 71.39% [11][13]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.48, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.48 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [7][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 33 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.21%, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 6.34 billion, up 12.16% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7]. - The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is anticipated to double the company's output, significantly boosting revenue and profits [8]. - The company is well-positioned as a leader in the domestic coal-to-olefins sector, with a favorable outlook for long-term growth [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the chemical industry, with a current A-share price of RMB 17.00 as of March 12, 2025, and a market capitalization of RMB 124.67 billion [2]. - Major shareholder is Ningxia Baofeng Group, holding 35.65% of shares [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has consistently received "Buy" ratings in recent evaluations, with the latest rating issued on August 12, 2024 [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6.34 billion for 2024, with a significant increase in polyethylene and polypropylene sales, up 36% and 55% year-on-year, respectively [8][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.4598 per share to minority shareholders, representing a dividend payout ratio of 47.44% of net profit [7][13]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The Inner Mongolia project is set to release 3 million tons of capacity by 2025, with plans for further expansion in Xinjiang [8]. - The company’s polyethylene production capacity is expected to grow by 61.90% year-on-year in 2024 [8]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The company benefits from stable prices for its main products, with a decrease in raw material coal prices contributing to an increase in gross margin by 2.75 percentage points to 33.15% [8][10]. - The average price of polyethylene in 2024 is projected to be RMB 7,088.56 per ton, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 10.86 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 71.39% [11][13]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.48, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.48 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][20][22] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 32.98 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be 8.71 billion yuan, slightly down by 0.3% year-on-year but up 18% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.80 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year and 46% quarter-on-quarter [1][9][20] - The main products, polyethylene and polypropylene, have seen an increase in production and sales due to new olefin capacity. The average selling prices for polyethylene and polypropylene are 7,106 yuan/ton and 6,663 yuan/ton, respectively [2][14] - The decline in coal prices has contributed to a decrease in the cost of coal-to-olefin production, enhancing the company's cost advantage [3][18] - The company is expanding its olefin production capacity, which is expected to be a core source of profit growth in the future [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 31.4% and a net margin of 20.7%, with a period expense ratio of 5.9%, which has decreased year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1][9] - The company’s main raw material costs have decreased, with average procurement prices for gasification coal, coking coal, and thermal coal down by 9%, 13%, and 11% respectively [3][18] Production and Sales - In Q4 2024, the production and sales volumes for polyethylene were 315,800 tons and 309,700 tons, while for polypropylene, they were 341,500 tons and 340,600 tons, respectively [2][14] - The EVA and LDPE production and sales volumes increased significantly, with production/sales of 52,900 tons/57,200 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 81%/120% [2][14] Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2026 and has added a forecast for 2027, with projected net profits of 12.21 billion yuan, 12.41 billion yuan, and 13.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][20]