Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro disturbances have weakened and market sentiment has warmed up, but the overall supply - demand situation of coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the tendency of hot metal production to peak and decline, the prices are temporarily treated as bearish on rebounds [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, coal and coke futures prices have continuously hit new lows. The spot market saw the first round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week, and there are expectations of further cuts. The market is in a weak - running trend, indicating a poor fundamental situation for coal and coke [3]. Supply Side - Upstream coking coal inventories at coal mines and coal washing plants are still high, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks. This week, production decreased due to the maintenance of major mines in Changzhi, Shanxi and Anhui, and safety measures were tightened in Liulin, leading to production cuts in the main production areas of Shanxi. However, after the maintenance of major mines ends, raw coal production is expected to recover. Mongolian coal resumed high - level customs clearance after the May Day holiday, and port inventories have increased again. Overall, coking coal supply remains sufficient [3]. Demand Side - The overall demand is currently at a high level but there are expectations of production cuts in June. Currently, the overall profitability rate of steel mills is nearly 60%, and their production enthusiasm is relatively high. This week, the daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 2.436 million tons. Despite the high hot metal output driving raw material demand, coal and coke prices are still in a downward trend, indicating a prominent problem of oversupply [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Macro disturbances have weakened and market sentiment has improved, but the overall supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the potential peak - to - decline trend of hot metal production, the prices are currently treated as bearish on rebounds [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Supply - side situation - Recently, coking coal and coke futures prices have continuously hit new lows, and the spot market saw the first round of price cuts last week, indicating a weak fundamental situation. Upstream coking coal inventories such as those in coal mines and coal washing plants are still high, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks. This week, due to the maintenance of major mines in Changzhi, Shanxi and Anhui, production decreased, and safety requirements tightened in Liulin and other places, leading to obvious production cuts in major production areas in Shanxi. After the maintenance of major mines ends, raw coal production is expected to recover. In addition, Mongolian coal suspended customs clearance during the May Day holiday, and after resumption, the customs clearance volume rebounded to a relatively high level, and port inventories also increased again. Overall, coking coal supply remains abundant [3] Demand - side situation - The overall demand is currently at a high level, but there are expectations of production cuts in June. Currently, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and their production enthusiasm is high, with the daily average hot metal output fluctuating around 2.44 million tons. However, even with high hot metal output, coking coal and coke prices have not escaped the downward trend, indicating a prominent problem of oversupply [4] Later - stage focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up rate of steel mills and the customs clearance situation of imported coal [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The macro - disturbance has weakened and market sentiment has improved, but the overall supply - demand situation of coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the peak - to - decline trend of hot metal production, the price is temporarily treated as a rebound with a bearish outlook [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke continued the weak and volatile trend, hitting new lows, and rebounded slightly at night; the first round of spot price cut of coke was implemented, and there is still an expectation of further cuts. Recently, the macro - disturbance to the market has weakened, but the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of coal and coke have dragged down the price performance [3] Coking Enterprise Situation - After the first round of coke price cut, the profits of most coking enterprises in many regions have returned to the break - even point. Most coking enterprises in the region maintain the previous production restriction state, with normal production rhythm. Some coking enterprises have slightly increased production. The recent shipment situation has improved compared with before, and most coking plants keep their coke inventory at a low level [3] Downstream Demand - Last week, the average daily output of hot metal from steel mills was 244,770 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons. Recently, the hot metal output has shown a peak - to - decline trend. Some steel mills have plans for production reduction and maintenance. Affected by relevant policies, steel mills are more cautious in purchasing raw materials such as coke and mainly purchase on - demand [3] Mongolian Coal Import - After the port inventory pressure has been continuously relieved, the Mongolian coal import has quickly recovered to the level of the same period last year. Some Mongolian coal is piled up in the warehouse after import. Since there is no expectation of an increase in downstream demand, the recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance has brought supply pressure to the market again [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The overall supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the potential peak - to - decline trend of hot metal production, the prices are currently treated as a rebound with a bearish outlook [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the futures prices of coking coal and coke have been oscillating weakly, hitting new lows continuously. The first - round reduction of coke spot prices has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further reduction [2]. Fundamental Situation - Most coking enterprises in the region maintain their previous production - limiting status, with normal production rhythms. Some coking enterprises have slightly increased production. The recent shipment situation has improved compared to before, and most coking plants keep their coke inventories at a low level [2]. Downstream Demand - Last week, the steel mill's hot metal production was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 million tons. There is a trend of peak - to - decline in hot metal production recently. Some steel mills have plans for production reduction and maintenance, and due to relevant policies, steel mills' procurement is cautious, mainly on a demand - based basis [2]. Mongolian Coal Import - After the port inventory pressure has been continuously alleviated, the import of Mongolian coal has quickly recovered to the level of the same period last year. However, some imported Mongolian coal has become "dead stock" in the warehouse. Given the lack of improvement in downstream demand, the recent recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance has put obvious pressure on the market [3].

Group 1: Basic Information - The report is a daily report on ferrous metals data, published by Guomao Futures on May 16, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Far - month Contracts (May 15) - RB2601: Closing price 3150 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan (0.67%) [2] - HC2601: Closing price 3272 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (0.49%) [2] - I2601: Closing price 698 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (1.01%) [2] - J2601: Closing price 1498.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.20%) [2] - JM2601: Closing price 899 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.73%) [2] Near - month Contracts (May 15) - RB2510: Closing price 3118 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.39%) [2] - HC2510: Closing price 3260 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.46%) [2] - I2509: Closing price 736.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan (1.17%) [2] - J2509: Closing price 1472 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.44%) [2] - JM2509: Closing price 883 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.34%) [2] Cross - month Spreads (May 15) - RB2510 - 2601: - 32 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - HC2510 - 2601: - 12 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - I2509 - 2601: 38.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] - J2509 - 2601: - 26.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [2] - JM2509 - 2601: - 16 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [2] Spreads/Ratios/Profits (May 15) - Coil - rebar spread: 142 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Rebar - ore ratio: 4.23, down 0.01 [2] - Coal - coke ratio: 1.67, up 0.01 [2] - Rebar disk profit: - 109.03 yuan/ton, down 3.18 yuan [2] - Coking disk profit: 297.61 yuan/ton, up 5.3 yuan [2] Group 3: Spot Market May 15 Prices and Changes - Shanghai rebar: 3220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Tianjin rebar: 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - Guangzhou rebar: 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan billet: 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Platts index: 102.2, down 0.6 [2] - Shanghai hot - rolled coil: 3280 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil: 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou hot - rolled coil: 3380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Billet - product spread: 240 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Rizhao Port: PB ore: 780 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Super special powder: 645 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Another ore: 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Ganqimao Port: Coking coal: 970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Qingdao Port: Quasi - first - grade coke: 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Basis (May 15) - HC main contract: 20 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2] - RB main contract: 102 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2] - I main contract: 55 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - J main contract: 186.66 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - JM main contract: 117 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan [2] Group 4: Industry Analysis Steel - Weekly steel data rebounded but did not exceed the normal range. Inventory and apparent demand data improved, and the market returned to normal, but was not stronger than the historical average. Spot trading volume was weak. The market sentiment may drive the futures price to fill the gap in early April, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, with a potential price decline risk [4] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented, and coking coal auction prices continue to fall. The black chain index touched the 20 - day line. Macro factors may affect the market sentiment. The "rush to export" during the 90 - day tariff suspension period may not significantly boost steel demand. The coal - coke market remains weak, and the high - short strategy is recommended. Consider the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [5] Ferroalloys - In the silicon - iron market, some Ningxia manufacturers have reduced production, creating a supply - demand gap and driving the futures price to rebound. Manganese - silicon production cuts have expanded, and the market may see a slowdown in the short - term rebound. Hebei Iron and Steel's tender prices are low [7] Iron Ore - The rebound driven by improved macro sentiment may provide a good cost basis. The comprehensive tariff is still high. High pig - iron production is expected to continue in May, and the port inventory will fluctuate slightly. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel prices may be weaker than iron - ore prices [8] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Steel: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading. Choose hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in the spot - futures market, and conduct hedging and inventory management. For arbitrage, roll at high prices [9] - Coking Coal and Coke: Short on the single - side market. Pay attention to the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [9] - Ferroalloys: Hold the 9 - 1 calendar spread and short at high prices [9] - Iron Ore: Hold the 9 - 1 calendar spread and short at high prices [9]