玉米系产业日报 2025-09-17 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 ，开秤价格同比略有偏高，对市场情绪有所支撑。盘面来看，随着新季玉米逐步上市，续涨动能尚显不足 ，近日多头有获利离场倾向，期价也有所回落，维持偏空思路。 | | 当前北方原料玉米处于新陈交替供应市场阶段，部分企业因原料玉米供应不足，新增检修，同时目前玉米淀粉市场行情偏弱，企业 | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 仍处于亏损状态，行业开机率整体维持偏低位置运行。供应压力偏弱，叠加需求略有好转，使得库存压力有所下滑。截至9月10日 | | 淀粉） | ，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量122.6万吨，较上周下降3.90万吨，周降幅3.08%，月降幅6.98 ...

场倾向，期价也有所回落，中长期维持偏空思路。 | | 当前北方原料玉米处于新陈交替供应市场阶段，部分企业因原料玉米供应不足，新增检修，同时目前玉米淀粉市场行情偏弱，企业 | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 仍处于亏损状态，行业开机率整体维持偏低位置运行。供应压力偏弱，叠加需求略有好转，使得库存压力有所下滑。截至9月10日 | | 淀粉） | ，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量122.6万吨，较上周下降3.90万吨，周降幅3.08%，月降幅6.98%；年同比增幅40.27%。不过， | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 行业库存仍然偏高，且木薯淀粉和小麦淀粉替代优势仍然较好，继续挤压玉米淀粉市场需求。盘面来看，受玉米回落影响，近日淀 | 粉同步走弱，且受自身需求不佳影响，总体走势弱于玉米。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the US, although the estimated corn production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, it is still lower than the USDA's August forecast, adding expectations of a later USDA production cut. In the domestic market, with the approaching new - season corn listing in the Northeast, the continuous release of reserve - rotated corn, weakened confidence of traders, and sufficient stockpiles of grain - using enterprises, the corn market has weak trading and prices are in a weak adjustment. The corn market is under pressure [2]. - **Corn Starch**: During the transition period between old and new corn, some enterprises have limited production and maintenance, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate. Supply pressure has decreased, demand has slightly improved, and inventory pressure has declined. However, the industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch are still good, squeezing the demand for corn starch. The starch market remains in a low - level oscillation and is still regarded as bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active corn futures contract is 2193 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 94 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 72743 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 65202 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 215 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active corn starch futures contract is 2487 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is 204 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 40051 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 hands [2]. Outer Market - The closing price of the active CBOT corn futures contract is 423 cents/bushel; the total weekly position is 1456701 contracts, down 109666 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 34270 contracts, down 70940 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2363.73 yuan/ton, up 0.4 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1930.38 yuan/ton, up 0.86 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 170.73 yuan/ton, up 7.4 yuan [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 173 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 370 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 184 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 67 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 39.893 million hectares, 35.12 million hectares, 5.3 million hectares, and an unspecified amount respectively; the predicted yields are 162.04 billion bushels (US), 131 million tons (Brazil), 7.5 million tons (Argentina), 295 million tons (China), and 30.5 million tons (Ukraine) [2]. - The corn inventory at southern ports is 770,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 2942,000 tons, down 205,000 tons; the inventory at northern ports is 1750,000 tons; the monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of corn starch is 15,940 tons, up 1440 tons; the monthly feed production is 28273,000 tons, down 110,400 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 28.13 days, down 0.72 days; the deep - processed corn consumption is 11402,000 tons, up 4000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.87%, down 0.7%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 47.7%, down 3.31%; the corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 130 yuan/ton, - 60 yuan/ton, and - 110 yuan/ton respectively, down 8 yuan/ton, 9 yuan/ton, and 29 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.48%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.68%, down 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.67%, down 0.35% [2]. Industry News - As of August 31, in 18 states accounting for 92% of the country's corn - sown area, the proportion of US corn in the dough stage was 90%, up from 83% a week ago, compared with 89% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,407,050 tons, up from the revised 1,338,532 tons last week and 966,544 tons in the same period last year [2]. - Pro Farmer's final production forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, domestically, as the new - season corn in the Northeast is approaching the listing period, reserve - rotation corn is continuously put into the market, weakening traders' confidence in price support and accelerating the sale of remaining grains. With poor breeding profits, sluggish feed sales, and low enthusiasm from feed enterprises to purchase old grains, and deep - processing enterprises relying mainly on contract grains, the market trading is relatively light, and prices continue to run weakly. Recently, due to short - covering, corn futures prices have rebounded from the low level [2]. - For corn starch, as previously overhauled enterprises resume work, the operating rate in the corn starch industry has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. The overall market trading shows no obvious trend, and the supply - demand pattern is clearly oversupplied with high inventory pressure. Affected by the corn rebound, starch prices have risen in a volatile manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2200 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 66 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 948162 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75739 lots, the registered warehouse receipt volume is 66608 lots, and the CS - C spread of the main contract is 212 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2505 yuan/ton, the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 30 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 196158 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 41054 lots, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - Disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 420 cents/bushel, the total position is 1456701 lots (weekly), and the non - commercial net long position is - 70940 lots (weekly) [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2363.33 yuan/ton, the fair - market price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, the CIF price of imported corn is 1929.52 yuan/ton, and the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the main corn starch contract is 155 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main corn contract is 163.33 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. - Corn inventories at southern and northern ports are 770,000 tons and 1.75 million tons respectively, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 2.942 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The imported corn volume is 60,000 tons, and the exported corn starch volume is 15,940 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly feed production is 2.8273 million tons, the sample feed corn inventory days are 28.13 days, the deep - processing corn consumption is 1.1402 million tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.87%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.01% [2]. - The corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 122 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and - 81 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 7.46% and 6.32% respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options of corn are 10.02% and 10.02% respectively [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of August 28, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 6.7%, compared with 3.2% a week ago and 7.7% in the same period last year [2]. - As of August 28, the harvesting of the second - season corn in Brazil in the 2024/2025 season has ended, 2 percentage points higher than the 98% a week ago, and the harvesting was also completed in the same period last year [2]. - Pro Farmer's final yield forecast shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, which is lower than the USDA's August forecast [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption data from Mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn in the main producing areas and the listing of spring corn have increased supply. Trade entities are less willing to hold prices and more eager to clear inventories. With weak downstream demand, the market's confidence in price increases has diminished, and corn prices are gradually bottoming out. The corn market remains in a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [2]. - Corn Starch: As previously shut - down enterprises resume operations, supply pressure has increased. With downstream demand in the off - season and poor sales, the supply of corn starch far exceeds demand. Corn starch inventory has increased, and the market remains in a weak trend, suggesting a bearish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active futures contract is 2164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 70 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1019003 lots, up 14990 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 105472 lots, up 8639 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 84226 lots, down 5844 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 281 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active futures contract is 2471 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 44 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 225322 lots, up 14600 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28973 lots, down 2352 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 7450 lots, unchanged [2]. - CBOT Corn: The closing price is 409.25 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents; the total open interest is 1566367 contracts, up 16491 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 105210 contracts, up 27964 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2365.69 yuan/ton, down 2.06 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1918.54 yuan/ton, down 1.3 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 201.69 yuan/ton, down 8.06 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2660 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 336 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan [2]. - Substitute Products: The average spot price of wheat is 2430.11 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production Forecast: The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Sowing Area Forecast: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports is 67.1 million tons, down 8 million tons; at northern ports is 203 million tons, down 44 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 314.7 million tons, down 25.5 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The sample feed corn inventory days are 28.85 days, down 0.76 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 113.62 million tons, down 0.44 million tons [2]. - Corn Starch Processing: The processing profit in Shandong is - 94 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; in Hebei is - 77 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.57%, up 1.57%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.01%, down 1.29% [2]. Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.77%, down 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.18%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.89%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.89%, up 0.11% [2]. Industry News - Ukraine: As of August 25, 2025/26 (starting from July), Ukraine's grain exports were 353 million tons, higher than 298.3 million tons a week ago but lower than 675 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - US: In 18 states accounting for 92% of the national corn sowing area, as of August 24, the proportion of corn in the dough stage was 83%, up from 72% a week ago, the same as 83% last year. Pro Farmer's final yield forecast shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast [2]. Key Points to Watch The weekly corn consumption data and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises released by Mysteel on Thursday and Friday should be closely monitored [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - For the corn market, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and weak market sentiment lead to a weak trend in the corn market, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - For the corn starch market, with the resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a clear oversupply situation. The market shows a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 74 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is 2563 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures holdings of active contracts: 29682 hands for yellow corn, 925944 hands for corn starch; net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 93342 hands for corn starch and - 22833 hands for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 113481 hands for yellow corn, 7450 hands for corn starch [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 321 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 0.75 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn positions are 406.5 (weekly), and non - commercial net long positions are - 25206 (weekly) [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2391.37 yuan/ton, down 2.55 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.47 yuan/ton, up 1.42 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 398.93 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 35.12 million tons, down 0.25 million tons [2]. - The predicted yields of corn in Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 75.1 million tons, down 14.5 million tons; deep - processing corn inventories are 340.2 million tons, down 24.1 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories at northern ports are 247 million tons, down 22 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.2 million tons, up 1.2 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 61 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing consumption of corn is 114.06 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.9%, up 2.07% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 3.48%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 1.73% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.64% [2]. Industry News - The Midwest crop inspection activity of the US Professional Farmers (ProFarmer) organization reported crop growth problems on the first day, including soil cracking and lack of surface soil moisture [2]. - In July 2025, China's corn imports were 6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons (62.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 103 million tons (94.9%) [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the estimated sown area of US corn in the 2025/26 season is increased from 95.2 million acres in July to 97.3 million acres, and the yield per acre is increased from 181 bushels/acre to 188.8 bushels/acre [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For corn, international corn prices are under continuous pressure due to the high output prospects in the US, where the corn excellent - rate remains good and the weather is favorable for growth. In the domestic market, factors such as import corn reserve auctions, falling international grain prices, and lower new - season corn costs lead to a pessimistic outlook on forward corn prices. The spot price is weak, and the corn futures price is generally bearish [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand imbalance is obvious. The resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises increases supply pressure, while downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory has increased, and the starch futures price has been oscillating weakly at a low level, also suggesting a bearish view [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2267 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and a decrease in the number of registered warrants. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders has decreased. The CS - C spread of the main contract has decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2660 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and unchanged registered warrants. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders has decreased [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 402 cents/bushel, with an increase in total positions and an increase in non - commercial net long positions [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2395.49 yuan/ton, with a slight increase. The flat - hold price at Jinzhou Port has decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The import cost has decreased slightly, and the international freight remains unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang remain unchanged. The basis of the main contract has decreased, and the spread between Shandong starch and corn has increased [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2437.44 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted yields of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine remain unchanged. The sown areas also remain stable [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports has increased, while that at northern ports has decreased. The inventory of deep - processing corn has decreased [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn has decreased, and the monthly export volume of corn starch has increased [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed has increased [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The consumption of deep - processing corn has increased, and the开机率 of alcohol and starch enterprises has increased [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong and Jilin has increased, while that in Hebei has decreased [2]. Option Market - The historical volatility of corn has changed slightly, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options has decreased [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending July 31, 2025, to be between 150 and 290 tons. The Bystro Canal at the mouth of the Danube in Ukraine will reopen, which is expected to have a positive impact on grain exports and the shipping market. The excellent - rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, the high-quality rate of US corn remains good, leading to continuous pressure on international corn prices. In the domestic market, the trade inventory in the Northeast production area has dropped to a low level, and the trading activity is poor with little price fluctuation. Wheat has substitution advantages, and import corn auctions and deferred pick - up policies restrict the corn market. The corn futures price has declined again due to the general decline of commodities and remains weak overall [2]. - For the corn starch market, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price has been oscillating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2288 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the 9 - 1 month spread is 79 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 769,791 lots, up 19,476 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,570 lots, up 6,231 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 154,091 lots, down 2,500 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2660 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 9 - 11 month spread is 93 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 162,157 lots, down 2,989 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 21,587 lots, down 3,822 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, down 2,573 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 412.5 cents/bushel, up 1.75 cents; the total position is 1,493,670 contracts (weekly), up 23,275 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,883 contracts (weekly), down 4,426 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2404.02 yuan/ton, down 5.39 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2005.3 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 116.02 yuan/ton, up 18.61 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 20 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 356 yuan/ton (weekly), down 34 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2440.5 yuan/ton, down 0.67 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 175 yuan/ton (weekly), down 4 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 23 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, all unchanged [2]. - Corn planting area forecasts: The predicted annual planting area in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 26.9 tons (weekly), down 56.9 tons; at northern ports is 304 tons (weekly), down 13 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 400.5 tons (weekly), down 26.5 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 tons, down 3 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons, up 98,100 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The inventory days of sample feed corn is 30.87 days (weekly), down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 106.24 tons (weekly), down 3.81 tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 38.63% (weekly), up 0.29%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.76% (weekly), up 6.3%; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hebei is - 48 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - For corn options, the 20 - day historical volatility is 7.55%, up 0.75%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.8%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.56%, down 1.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.56%, down 1.03% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The US will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting from August 1st due to India's high tariffs and non - monetary trade barriers [2]. - The Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) predicts that the corn export volume in July 2025 will be 4.18 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and much higher than that in June, but 11.3% lower than that in July last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the high - quality rate of US corn is 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the high output prospect as the good rate of US corn remains high. In the domestic market, the corn supply is tight with low remaining grain in the Northeast and low channel inventory. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions has slightly increased, the actual transaction volume is limited and the delivery speed is slow. However, the low processing profit and开机率 of deep - processing enterprises and the relatively safe inventory of feed enterprises limit the upward momentum of corn prices. The corn futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the industry's开机率 is at a low level in recent years due to continuous production losses, reducing supply pressure. But the demand in the civil and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch inventory has decreased slightly. The starch futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2302 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 87 yuan/ton; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 794,329 hands, down 11,231 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 22,888 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 160,521 hands, down 7,358 hands; the basis of the main contract is 107.22 yuan/ton, up 18.38 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 81 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 175,002 hands, up 1,570 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 16,047 hands, up 9,412 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 6,499 hands, down 100 hands; the basis of the main contract is - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 364 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 413.25 cents/bushel, down 5.75 cents; the total holding volume is 1,493,670 contracts, up 23,275 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,883 contracts, down 4,426 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2409.22 yuan/ton, up 1.38 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1997.13 yuan/ton, up 3.86 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.9 million tons, all unchanged. The predicted sown area in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 30.5 million tons, down 56.9 million tons; at northern ports is 304 million tons, down 13 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 400.5 million tons, down 26.5 million tons; the monthly import volume is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 131.1 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the monthly export volume is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2][3]. - Feed production: The monthly output is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days is 30.87 days, down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 106.24 million tons, down 3.81 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Corn starch processing profit: In Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Hebei is - 52 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. -开机率: The alcohol enterprise开机率 is 38.63%, up 0.29%; the starch enterprise开机率 is 45.46%, down 4.83% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.96%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.49%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.05%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.05%, up 0.61% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,522,174 tons, compared with the revised 984,901 tons last week and 1,070,719 tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of July 24, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/2025 season was 68%, 13 percentage points higher than last week but still behind the 91% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good rate of US corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% last week and up from 68% in the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For the corn market, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to a good initial growth rate and high output prospects. In the domestic market, after traders sold their grains, their inventories tightened, and they still preferred to hold prices. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions increased slightly this week, the actual trading volume was limited, and the delivery speed was not as expected, failing to form large - scale effective supply. However, the deep - processing profit was under pressure, the enterprise operation rate was low, and feed enterprises' inventories were relatively safe, so the price increase momentum was insufficient, and the price generally maintained a narrow - range adjustment. [2] - For the corn starch market, affected by continuous production losses, the industry operation rate remained at a low level in recent years, and the supply pressure weakened significantly. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets was poor, and the downstream demand was in the traditional off - season, so the supply - demand situation was still loose. Recently, the starch price rebounded at a low level, and short - term observation was recommended. [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2319 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 9 - 1 month spread was 93 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 805,560 lots, down 46,546 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 21,284 lots, down 9,284 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 167,879 lots, down 1,992 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract was 364 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [2] - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 9 - 11 month spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 173,432 lots, down 17,087 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,119 lots, down 8,297 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 6,599 lots, down 3,485 lots. [2] - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 419 cents/bushel, down 2 cents; the total open interest was 1,470,395 contracts, down 28,569 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was - 129,457 contracts, up 12,305 contracts. [2] Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2407.84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn was 1993.27 yuan/ton, up 3.72 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract was 88.84 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang were 2680 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract was 15 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn was 356 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. [2] - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat was 2440.94 yuan/ton, down 3.62 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 175 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was 12 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The predicted annual corn production in the US was 401.85 million tons, in Brazil was 131 million tons, in Argentina was 53 million tons, in China was 295 million tons, and in Ukraine was 30.5 million tons, all unchanged. [2] - Sown area: The predicted annual sown area of corn in the US was 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil was 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina was 7.5 million hectares, and in China was 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged. [2] - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports was 26.9 million tons, down 56.9 million tons; at northern ports was 304 million tons, down 13 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory was 400.5 million tons, down 26.5 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn was 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons. [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons. [2] - Processing profit: The corn starch processing profit in Shandong was - 114 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; in Hebei was - 52 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days were 30.87 days, down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption was 106.24 million tons, down 3.81 million tons. [2] - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The alcohol enterprise operation rate was 38.63%, up 0.29%; the starch enterprise operation rate was 45.46%, down 4.83%. [2] Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility was 6.75%, up 0.22%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 9.44%, down 0.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 9.44%, down 0.48%. [2] Industry News - As of July 23, the 2024/25 corn harvest progress in Argentina was 84.0%, 5.1% higher than a week ago, 2.6% lower than the same period last year, but 6.7% higher than the five - year average. [2] - As of July 24, Ukraine had harvested 3.236 million hectares of grains (including legumes), accounting for 29% of the planned area, with a harvest output of 10.347 million tons and an average yield of 3.2 tons per hectare. [2] - As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. [2] Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption and the operation and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel. [3]