1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market in ports is influenced by the intensifying Red Sea situation, providing some macro - level support. However, with the recovery of overseas plants, the fundamentals may gradually return to a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, and the short - term port methanol market will likely maintain a range - bound pattern. The inland methanol market has weak supply and demand. The price adjustment space is expected to be limited this week. The report predicts that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2350 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The port market has mixed factors, while the inland market has weak supply and demand. The price adjustment space is expected to be small this week. Focus on whether olefin plants will make external purchases [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [5]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2350 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some plants are shut down, the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to put into production a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant this month, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing external methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed operation, there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market has entered the traditional off - season, the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has shown different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged this week, while the price in Fujian decreased by 1.23% [9]. - **Market Chart**: The futures closing price was 2386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous period. The number of registered warrants increased by 723 to 9251, and the number of effective forecasts decreased by 723 to 0 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous period. The import spread was 44 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton from the previous period [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions such as Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports was 42.62 tons, an increase of 8.35 tons from the previous period, while the inventory in South China ports was 14.14 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons from the previous period [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or reduced load, including plants in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions [54]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, while some are in the process of maintenance [55]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or normal operation, and some new projects are expected to be put into production [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the adjustment range of inland methanol prices is expected to be limited this week. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate mainly, with MA2509 oscillating between 2350 - 2420 [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the port market, the intensifying situation in the Red Sea may provide some macro - level support. However, with the recovery of overseas plants, the subsequent fundamentals may gradually return to a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. In the short term, the port methanol market is influenced by both positive and negative factors and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. In the inland market, most downstream industries have poor profitability or even sell at a loss. But the raw material methanol gap of major CTO plants in the northwest has widened, and some inland supplies can flow to the ports. Recently, methanol plants in the production areas have shut down intensively, providing some support on the supply side. Overall, the adjustment range of inland methanol prices is expected to be limited this week [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 30, with the spot price higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 56.76 tons, an increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in the coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 oscillating between 2350 - 2420 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late July; major CTO plants in the northwest have an increased demand for raw material methanol [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol production has a certain profit margin, and producers are actively selling; due to poor sales, some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 3.15% week - on - week to 2400 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price decreased by 1.21% week - on - week to 2370 yuan/ton [8][9][11]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis and various price spreads have changed. For example, the basis of Jiangsu - Shandong decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 138 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates in different regions have changed. For example, the operating rate in Shandong decreased by 2.39% to 68.71%, and the national weighted average operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in the East and South China ports has increased, and the available and tradable supply in the coastal areas has also increased [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the northwest, north, east, and southwest regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat with a capacity of 100,000 tons/year has been under maintenance since November 2024, and the end date is to be determined [57]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating normally. For example, some plants in Iran are reported to be in the process of resuming production, and some plants in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia are operating normally [58].

Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the spot price of the domestic port methanol market declined. The market was constrained by weak terminal demand, with insufficient upward momentum. The overall production of methanol decreased slightly, and enterprise and port inventories changed. The olefin industry's overall operation increased slightly this week and may continue to rise next week [8] - Market outlook: The domestic methanol output will continue to decline slightly. The port methanol inventory may accumulate slightly, and the olefin industry's operating rate may continue to increase slightly [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Futures price: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.21% [11] - Inter - period spread: As of July 11, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 73 [16] - Warehouse receipts: As of July 10, there were 8720 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 65 compared to last week [23] Group 3: Spot Market - Domestic price: As of July 11, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2380 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1990 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 390 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan/ton from last week [29] - Foreign price: As of July 10, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 277 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 58 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton from last week [35] - Basis: As of July 11, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 10 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week [39] Group 4: Industry Chain Upstream - Coal and gas price: As of July 9, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 660 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of July 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.4 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] Industry - Production and utilization rate: As of July 10, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89% [46] - Inventory: As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 356,900 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 221,200 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29% [49] - Import: In May 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%; from January to May 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43%. As of July 10, the methanol import profit was 21.44 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton from last week [53] Downstream - Operating rate: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [56] - Profit: As of July 11, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 841 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.7 yuan/ton from last week [60]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to fewer transport vehicles and low enthusiasm of traders for提货, some enterprises' inventories increased slightly this week. Methanol port inventories continued to accumulate this week. In the Jiangsu mainstream storage areas,提货 was average, and the low operating loads of some major downstream enterprises along the Yangtze River led to an increase in inventories in the East China region. There were no foreign vessels arriving at the South China ports, and the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was stable, resulting in a continued decline in inventories. Next week, the volume of visible foreign vessel arrivals will change little, but the overall downstream demand will remain weak, and port methanol inventories are expected to accumulate slightly. In terms of demand, Zhongmei Mengda and Yanchang Zhongmei Phase II continued their maintenance status, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased last week, and the Sinopec Zhongyuan olefins plant is planned to stop production this week, so the operating rate may continue to decline. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2390 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2372 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 711306 lots, an increase of 17008 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 95141 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8720, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1982.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan. The East - West price difference was 392.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 3 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 277 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 340 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 246 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.35 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 50.95 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons; at South China ports, it was 16.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons. The methanol import profit was 13.89 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.07 yuan; the monthly import volume was 129.23 million tons, an increase of 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 352300 tons, an increase of 10700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 88.18%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 46.07%, a decrease of 2.88 percentage points; of dimethyl ether, it was 5.19%, a decrease of 3.97 percentage points; of acetic acid, it was 93.42%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points; of MTBE, it was 65.06%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; of olefins, it was 84.6%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 838 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 29.68%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.51%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol was 15.52%, a decrease of 2.29 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 million tons, an increase of 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a 1.31% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.12 million tons, a decrease of 2.00 million tons from the previous period, an 8.29% decrease. As of July 9, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 million tons. As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.25%, a 2.09% decrease from the previous period [2] Suggested Attention - Wednesday's Longzhong enterprise inventory and port inventory data [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that the domestic methanol market may undergo differential adjustments in the short term. In the port area, there may be a risk of inventory accumulation due to the inflow of some inland supplies for arbitrage and the concentrated arrival of imported goods next week. With the expectation of an increase in subsequent imports, short - term confidence among industry players is insufficient. However, the suspension of Iran's cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog provides some macro - level support, so port methanol is likely to fluctuate under the game between bulls and bears in the short term. In the inland area, upstream methanol enterprises have low inventories, and recent concentrated maintenance of methanol plants in production areas has relieved supply - side pressure. But most downstream industries, especially MTO, are suffering serious losses, with difficulties in cost transfer. Also, downstream users in sales areas have high raw material inventories. After the rebound of methanol prices in production areas this week, traders are cautious about chasing the price increase, and there is no supply gap in the market. With multiple factors at play, inland methanol is expected to move sideways next week. Continuous attention should be paid to port inventory, olefin procurement, and macro - level news [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - It is expected that the domestic methanol market will have differential adjustments in the short term, with different trends in ports and inland areas as described above [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Domestic Methanol Spot Price**: From June 27th to July 4th, prices in most regions decreased, with Jiangsu down 13.30%, Lunan down 2.19%, Hebei down 0.68%, Fujian down 3.09%, while Inner Mongolia increased 1.52% [7]. - **Methanol Futures and Basis**: The futures price increased 0.25% from June 27th to July 4th, and the basis decreased by 381 [9]. - **Methanol Production Profits by Process**: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 54, natural gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 50, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit increased by 342 from June 27th to July 4th [10]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: Nationally, it decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared to last week; in the Northwest, it decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. - **Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread**: CFR China decreased by 1.77% to 277 dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 2.84% to 341.5 dollars/ton, and the spread changed from - 69.5 to - 64.5 [15]. - **Methanol Import Spread**: The import cost decreased by 1.82%, and the import spread decreased by 330 from June 27th to July 4th [18]. - **Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices**: Formaldehyde remained unchanged, dimethyl ether remained unchanged, and acetic acid decreased by 0.93% from June 27th to July 4th [25]. - **Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products**: Formaldehyde production profit increased by 7, load increased by 0.90%; dimethyl ether production profit increased by 21, load increased by 0.82%; acetic acid production profit increased by 181, load increased by 1.94% [26][28][33]. - **MTO Production Profit and Load**: The MTO production profit increased from - 2324 to - 1124, and the load decreased from 79.84% to 79.69% [37]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: In the East China port, it decreased by 2.33 to 34.27, and in the South China port, it decreased by 1.11 to 15.7 [38]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: Warehouse receipts increased by 7.96% to 8655, and effective forecasts remained at 95 [42]. 3.3检修状况 - **Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different regions having various maintenance situations, such as Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [44]. - **Overseas Methanol Plant Operation**: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, while some are under maintenance, like ZPC in Iran, QAFAC in Qatar, etc. [45]. - **Olefin Plant Operation**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance, while others are operating normally or with reduced loads, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The methanol industry is expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with limited upside and downside potential [2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows different trends in ports and inland areas. Port prices are supported by low inventory and potential import reduction, while inland prices are influenced by device maintenance and downstream demand [4] - In the short - term, the supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July. The demand from MTO is mainly for rigid procurement, and traditional demand has weakened. Overall, the short - term supply and demand have both declined, leading to an expected volatile pattern [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Port prices have fallen, with Jiangsu ranging from 2450 - 2840 yuan/ton and Guangdong from 2420 - 2470 yuan/ton. Inland prices first declined and then rose, with Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1980 - 2010 yuan/ton [4] - **International Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of methanol in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [17][18][19] - **Port - Inland Price Spread**: It shows the price spread trends between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and Lunan from 2020 - 2025 [20][21][22][23] 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity**: In 2024 - 2025, China has multiple new methanol plants put into production, with a total domestic capacity expansion of 400 in 2024 and 840 in 2025. Overseas, the total international capacity expansion was 355 in 2024 and is expected to be 330 in 2025 [25] - **Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North, Southwest, and Central regions [27] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows historical data on China's methanol production, capacity utilization, production by process, and capacity utilization by region from 2018 - 2025 [28][30][31][34][35] - **Import - related**: It includes historical data on China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [37][38][39][40][41] - **Cost and Profit**: Data on methanol production costs and profits from different production methods in various regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [43][44][45][46][47][48][49] 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows the capacity utilization trends of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [52][53][54][56][57] - **Downstream Profit**: Data on the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, etc., in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [60][61][63][64][65][66] - **Procurement Volume**: It includes the procurement volume data of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [68][69][70][71][73][74][75][76] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The inventory data of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [78][79][80][81] 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical data of China's methanol factory inventory and inventory in different regions from 2018 - 2025 [83][84][85][86] - **Port Inventory**: The historical data of China's methanol port inventory and inventory in different ports from 2018 - 2025 are presented [89][90][91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of the domestic port methanol market mainly declined. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2450 - 2840 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2420 - 2470 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market first declined and then rose. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line fluctuated between 1980 - 2010 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying between 2205 - 2230 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production reduction exceeded the output of restored capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production. In Northwest China, some olefin plants had unexpected recovery failures while the supporting methanol plants operated normally, leading to a rapid accumulation of enterprise inventories this week [7]. - This week, the methanol port inventory fluctuated slightly. In the Yangtze - River area of East China, the提货 volume from mainstream storage areas remained low. With more foreign vessels and domestic cargo supplements, inventory accumulation was obvious. In South China, the number of domestic vessels decreased month - on - month, the提货 volume from mainstream storage areas was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [7]. - In terms of demand, Zhongmei Mengda and Yanchang Zhongmei Phase II continued to be under maintenance. This week, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased. The Sinopec Zhongyuan olefin plant is planned to shut down next week, and the operating rate will continue to decline [7]. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic port methanol spot price declined, and the inland market first declined and then rose [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Production decreased slightly, enterprise inventories in Northwest China accumulated rapidly, port inventory fluctuated slightly, and demand weakened [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.25% [9]. - As of July 4, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 38 [14]. - As of July 4, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8655, an increase of 638 compared with last week [21]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 4, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2005 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 3, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 283 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton compared with last week [33]. - As of July 4, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 371 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of July 2, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41]. - As of July 3, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - **Industry** - As of July 3, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons compared with last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.45% [44]. - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 10,300 tons [49]. - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23% [49]. - In May 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%; from January to May 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43% [53]. - As of July 3, the methanol import profit was 6.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312.34 yuan/ton compared with last week [53]. - **Downstream** - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09%. The average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry continued to decline [56]. - As of July 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 919 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton [3] - This week, the inventory of methanol enterprises has rapidly accumulated, and the port inventory has shown narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate has declined, and the operating rate is expected to continue to drop [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2414 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract's open interest is 706,992 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,169 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 77,527 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, with no week - on - week change [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2005 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 445 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 345 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.5 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 50.95 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 16.42 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - The import profit of methanol is 12.74 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.46 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.66% [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.02%; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 968 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06% [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 17.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.36%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.13 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [3] - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 67.37 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, with an increase of 1.35 tons; South China has reduced inventory, with a decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.25%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.09% [3]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-02甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口月内空单回补，短期太仓现货或相对坚挺，然边库跟涨乏力，且随着部分内地货量持续流入港口套利， 或对港口市场存一定冲击，随着逼仓结束，港口高位回落概率大。内地方面，业者心态分歧严重，传统下游高温淡季以 及内地甲醇开工仍然高位，部分业者心态稍显谨慎。但同时当前产区工厂库存偏低，以及七月份甲醇装置检修集中，供 应端或将缩量，以及经过近期的回调之后当前价位下后期下跌空间有限，部分贸易商仍有一定的持货意愿不排除做多可 能，对内地价格有托底作用，预计本周内地价格震荡调整。需持续关注下周美国与伊朗会谈情况及外盘装置变化等 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint ➢ 风险点：宏观事件冲击，国际能源价格大幅波动； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 综述：逐步转入震荡格局 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述 ➢ 国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格上涨为主，其中江苏价格波动区间在2610-2820元/吨，广东价格波动在2440-2650元/吨。沿海甲醇市场主 要交易逻辑仍在于宏观面对市场情绪的影响，在国际形势的波动下，本周港口甲醇市场宽幅震荡。基本面来看，港口主流甲醇市场近期可流通量偏低 位，货权较为集中，近月基差坚挺运行为主，其他区域市场在下游高价采买情绪较弱的压制下跟涨相对有限。本期内地甲醇市场延续涨势，主产区鄂 尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1990-2033元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2265-2 ...