1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation under the expectation of a weakening fundamental situation. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. Currently, domestic methanol operating rates are at a high level, and upstream methanol factories still focus on sales with low inventories. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is at a low level, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the suppression of the bearish atmosphere of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue to decline weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and the start - up of coastal MTO plants. [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to weakening fundamentals, with limited decline due to price support at the bottom. The port market is also expected to decline weakly under the influence of high supply expectations and high inventories. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The prices of methanol in different regions in China showed varying degrees of decline this week. For example, the price in Jiangsu dropped by 3.11% from 2,157 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,090 yuan/ton on November 7th, and the price in Hebei decreased by 3.94% from 2,155 yuan/ton to 2,070 yuan/ton. [6] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu dropped by 3.11% from 2,157 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,090 yuan/ton on November 7th, and the futures price decreased by 3.12% from 2,180 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton. The basis showed a change of 1 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - to - methanol production profit decreased from 130 yuan/ton on October 31st to - 36 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a weekly decline of 166 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol decreased from 305 yuan/ton to 106 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 323 yuan/ton. [10] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. The load in the northwest region decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55%. [12] 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - The CFR China price decreased from 251 US dollars/ton on October 31st to 246 US dollars/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 1.99%. The CFR Southeast Asia price decreased from 323.5 US dollars/ton to 322.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The spread between them changed from - 72.5 US dollars/ton to - 76.5 US dollars/ton. [15] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - The import cost of methanol decreased from 2,208 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,165 yuan/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 1.96%. The import spread changed from - 51 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. [18] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week, with a weekly change of 0.00%. [24] 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased from - 149 yuan/ton to - 111 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased from 490 yuan/ton to 611 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. Acetic acid production profit increased from 214 yuan/ton to 251 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32%. [25][27][32] 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - MTO production profit increased from - 202 yuan/ton to 214 yuan/ton, and the MTO load decreased from 86.45% to 84.18%. [36] 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 78.18 to 78.8, an increase of 0.62. In the South China port, the inventory decreased from 50.11 to 49.81, a decrease of 0.30. [37] 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased from 11,837 on October 31st to 10,914 on November 7th, a decrease of 7.80%. The valid forecasts remained at 0, with a change of 0.00%. [41] 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat with a capacity of 100,000 tons has been under maintenance since early November, and Qinghai Zhonghao with a capacity of 600,000 tons has been under maintenance since October 23, 2024, until the end of March 2025. [43] 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants have different operating conditions. Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or recovery, while some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have one unit restored, but it needs verification. [44] 3.3.3 Olefin Plant Operation - Many olefin plants have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some have future production or maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last for 45 days. [45]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of raw coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest has declined, and the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates. The US dollar price has accelerated its decline, the import parity has widened, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The MTO device operating rate has rebounded, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, due to high inventory pressure, methanol will continue its downward trend [4]. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw Coal Situation**: As of November 5, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 44%. Coal mines resumed production, and the daily coal output in both regions was around 4 million tons. The demand was strong, and the pit - mouth price rose continuously [4]. - **Supply Side**: The price of raw coal was firm, the auction price of northwest mainstream methanol enterprises fell, and the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol operating rate was high and stable, and the supply was continuously abundant [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price accelerated its decline, the import parity widened. Iran's production was fully normal, the non - Iranian operating rate increased slightly, and the overseas operating rate returned to a high level. The China - Europe price difference narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iran had loaded 160,000 tons in November, and the bid - winning situation of Iran's concessionary bidding improved, with abundant non - Iranian supplies [4]. - **Demand Side**: The MTO device operating rate rebounded. Some MTO devices such as Xingxing, Nanjing Chengzhi, Jiangsu Sierbang, Tianjin Bohua, and Ningbo Fude were operating at different loads. The downstream demand was stable [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory accumulation cycle ended, and the basis was strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. The international device operating rate increased, and imports recovered. The port spot liquidity was sufficient, but the overall trading was light, and the spot basis was stable [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high levels without chasing the short position; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 6, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.09%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.06 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 68.13%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From October 25 to October 31, 2025, the international methanol production was 1,030,859 tons, a decrease of 39,050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 70.66%, a 2.68% decrease. There were changes in some devices such as the restart of Iran's Marjan, the resumption of the US Nat after a short - stop, the breakdown of Malaysia's Petronas' No. 1 and No. 3 devices, and the restart of a Libyan device after years of shutdown [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels and 41,200 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 82.97%, a 0.79 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 90.6%, with slight adjustments in the load of some enterprises [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.79%, a 0.52% decrease from last week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 69.61%, and the formaldehyde operating rate was 41.75%, an increase from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 23,900 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons from the previous statistical date, a 26.23% decrease [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a 2.57% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of November 5, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and that in South China decreased by 13,600 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi was 322 yuan/ton. The port - to - northern line price difference was 110 yuan/ton, and the port - to - northern Shandong price difference was - 80 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang was 2,100 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and in the northern line was 1,990 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [7] - The domestic methanol market continued to decline this week, with both port and inland prices falling. The market sentiment was significantly impacted by the sharp decline in the futures market and the continuous back - flow of port supplies [8] - Recently, the output loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production. The inventory of enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory accumulated slightly [8] - The operating rate of the olefin industry continued to decline this week, and it may decline slightly in the short term after the hedging of expected load changes of enterprises in different regions [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [7] - Market review: The port methanol market continued to decline this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2050 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2080 - 2190 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices also continued to decline. The futures market declined significantly, and the market sentiment was impacted [8] - Market outlook: The overall domestic methanol production increased. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated slightly, and the olefin industry operating rate continued to decline and may decline slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.12% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 101 [16] - Position analysis: As of November 7, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 10,914, a decrease of 923 compared to last week [25] 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of November 6, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2087.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [31] - Foreign spot price: As of November 6, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 244 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton compared to last week [37] - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 37.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [41] 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - Coal and natural gas prices: As of November 5, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of November 6, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.35 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [44] 3.3.2 Industry - Production and operating rate: As of November 6, China's methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, an increase of 26,860 tons compared to last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% [47] - Inventory: As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.75%; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5500 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China increased, while that in South China decreased [52] - Import volume and profit: In September 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.92%; from January to September 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of November 5, the methanol import profit was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [55] 3.3.3 Downstream - Operating rate: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The olefin industry operating rate continued to decline [58] - Profit: As of November 7, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - screen profit was - 672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the expected weakening of the fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, the traditional downstream acetic acid plant has low operating rates, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has shut down for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on the demand side. Currently, domestic methanol operating rates are at a high level, and upstream methanol plants still maintain low inventories and focus on sales. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is at a low level, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, and the decline is expected to be limited. In the port area, under the suppression of the bearish sentiment of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and the operating rates of coastal MTO plants. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Inland and port methanol markets face different supply - demand situations. Inland has demand - side pressures, while ports are affected by high supply expectations and inventories. The overall market is expected to be weak, but the decline may be limited due to price support [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2115 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 10, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 126.61 tons, with a slight decrease of 1.68 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has decreased by 3.28 tons to 80.55 tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there are expected to be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the operating rate of MTBE has significantly declined; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some plants in the production area have accumulated inventories due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region remains unchanged at 694 yuan/ton, the CFR price at the main port in China has decreased by 2 US dollars/ton to 247 US dollars/ton, and the import cost has decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 2174 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price has decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 2125 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants has decreased by 305 to 10854 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis has increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton, and the import spread has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports has decreased by 0.53 tons to 78.18 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has increased by 1.84 tons to 50.11 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others, with different maintenance start and end dates and varying impacts on production [57]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, and Marjan is in the process of restarting in mid - March [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are also under maintenance or have production adjustments. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and the restart time is expected to be 45 days later [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the context of a weakening fundamental outlook, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong is under maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operating rates and low inventories at upstream methanol plants still focused on sales, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short - term. Considering the current low methanol prices and cautious short - selling by traders, the price decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. [5] - It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2090 - 2160. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2601 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of October 30, 2025, port inventories have slightly increased, and the overall available circulating supply in coastal areas has decreased, both being bearish factors. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, also bearish. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2090 - 2160. [5] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; Iranian methanol operating rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing external methanol. [6] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operations; there is an expected concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have significantly declined; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventories due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 694 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 249 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2192 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2141 yuan/ton. There have been various price changes in different regions and varieties. [8] - **Inventory Data**: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 1282,900 tons, a slight increase of 13,100 tons from the previous period. The overall available circulating supply of methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5300 tons to 838,300 tons. [5] - **Operating Rate Data**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. Operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed. [8] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc., with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding weekly maintenance losses. [54] - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operating conditions, such as some plants are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are under maintenance. [55] - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, Northeast, etc. have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production increases. [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the expected weakening of the fundamentals, it is predicted that the domestic methanol market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, the traditional downstream acetic acid has a low operating rate, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on the demand side. Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, and upstream methanol plants still maintain low inventories and focus on sales. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is already at a low level, the cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In the port area, under the suppression of the expected high overseas supply and the bearish sentiment of high port inventories, it is expected that the port methanol market will continue to decline weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of the sanctions event, the shipping situation from Iran, and the operating rate of coastal MTO plants [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market is expected to continue its weak trend due to weakening fundamentals, with limited decline due to low prices and trader caution. The port market will also decline weakly under high - supply expectations and high inventories [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From October 24th to October 31st, the prices in Jiangsu decreased by 3.71% to 2157 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 0.92% to 2155 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.72% to 2005 yuan/ton, and in Fujian decreased by 2.66% to 2195 yuan/ton. The price in Lunan remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton [6]. 2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - From October 24th to October 31st, the futures price decreased by 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 9 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based methanol profit increased by 64 to 130 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 324 to 305 yuan/ton from October 24th to October 31st [10]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest region's load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. 2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From October 24th to October 31st, CFR China decreased by 4.20% to 251 US dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 0.31% to 323.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread increased by 10 to - 72.5 US dollars/ton [15]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From October 24th to October 31st, the spot price decreased by 3.71% to 2157 yuan/ton, the import cost decreased by 4.08% to 2208 yuan/ton, and the import spread increased by 11 to - 51 yuan/ton [18]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From October 24th to October 31st, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, 3850 yuan/ton, and 2600 yuan/ton respectively [25]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The profit increased by 9 to - 149 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% [26]. - Dimethyl ether: The profit increased by 28 to 490 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% [28]. - Acetic acid: The profit increased by 46 to 214 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% [33]. 2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - From October 24th to October 31st, the MTO production profit increased by 266 to - 202 yuan/ton, and the MTO load decreased by 0.15% to 79.69% [37]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - The inventory in East China decreased by 0.53 to 78.18 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 1.84 to 50.11 tons [41]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - From October 24th to October 31st, the warehouse receipts decreased by 16.00% to 11837, and the valid forecasts remained at 0 [42]. 3. Maintenance Status 3.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol plants in various regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end dates and maintenance loss volumes [44]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., have different operating statuses, including normal operation, restarting, and planned maintenance [45]. 3.3 Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions such as Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and Tianjin have various operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the port methanol market weakened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2170 - 2270 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2180 - 2260 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market continued to decline, with the price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 2010 - 2040 yuan/ton. Due to squeezed downstream profits, high supply, and high inventory, enterprises mainly reduced prices to attract orders [7]. - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output from restored production. Although the enterprise shipment rhythm is okay, the inventory of some enterprises has increased significantly due to the suspension of individual MTO long - term contracts. The port methanol inventory has a narrow fluctuation, and it is expected to accumulate next week as the demand has not improved significantly. The overall operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased this week but is expected to increase next week [7]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2150 - 2250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Port methanol prices weakened, and inland prices continued to fall. Enterprises cut prices to attract orders due to high supply, high inventory, and squeezed downstream profits [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased, enterprise inventory increased, port inventory may accumulate, and the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate is expected to rise [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2150 - 2250 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a - 4.05% change in the main contract price [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 31, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 80 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, there were 11,997 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 2095 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: As of October 30, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2020 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Prices**: As of October 30, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 257 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of October 30, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of October 29, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.72 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [43]. - **Industry**: As of October 30, China's methanol production was 1,968,095 tons, an increase of 24,630 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 376,100 tons, an increase of 15,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.36%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 215,600 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. The total Chinese methanol port inventory was 1.5065 million tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous data. In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.92%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of October 30, the methanol import profit was - 31.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.67 yuan/ton from last week [47][52][55]. - **Downstream**: As of October 30, the domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 91.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. As of October 31, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 750 yuan/ton, an increase of 204 yuan/ton from last week [58][61]. 3.5 Options Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the provided content

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - For methanol 2601, the mainland's inventory is low and coal prices are firm, but the overall start - up is high, and the negative feedback from olefins is emerging. The port is affected by sanctions, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. It is expected that the mainland's price fluctuation range is limited, and the port will maintain high - volatility with both ups and downs this week. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate mainly, and MA2601 will operate in the range of 2200 - 2260 [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the mainland's cost - end support is strengthened, but there is supply pressure in some areas, and the negative feedback from olefins is showing. The port is affected by sanctions, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short and increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [4] 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices are shut down, Iran's methanol start - up is reduced, some acetic acid devices are put into production or plan to be put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6] - **Likely to be Bearish**: Previously shut - down devices are restarted, there will be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the off - season, MTBE start - up declines significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling goods, and inventory in some production areas is accumulating [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2210 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis is 2, and the spot premium is over futures. In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim and Jiangsu remains unchanged, CFR China Main Port drops by 5 US dollars/ton, and the import cost drops by 41 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price drops by 49 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipts decrease by 125 [4][8] - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 128.29 million tons, a slight increase of 1.31 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas decreases by 0.53 million tons to 83.83 million tons [4] - **Start - up Rate**: The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decline [8] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many plants in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55] - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, including restarting, running stably, or under maintenance [56] - **Olefin Plants**: Olefin plants in Northwest, East, Central, and other regions have different operating conditions, some are running stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall due to factors such as low upstream factory inventories, strong coal prices, high overall mainland plant operation levels, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both rises and falls this week, affected by the sanctions event, with weakening downward momentum but a weak fundamental situation. The report suggests paying attention to the follow - up impact of the sanctions event, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operation [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2230 - 2280 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Mainland: Low upstream factory inventories and strong coal prices support the cost side, but high operation levels in some areas and squeezed olefin profits have a negative impact. The market has limited upward and downward space. Port: Affected by the sanctions event, the downward momentum of the port market is weakened, but it will maintain high volatility [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 125.89 tons, a slight decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period. The available circulating methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 6.34 tons to 87.70 tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinyao), reduced methanol operation in Iran, low port inventories, the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen, a planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins for coal - to - methanol production, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, prices in various regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have changed to different extents. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased, and the number of registered warrants has decreased. There have also been changes in price spreads such as basis, import spreads, and regional spreads [8]. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have also decreased [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 3.02 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has decreased by 1.93 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [56]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions [57]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, normal operation, or load adjustment, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market is expected to have limited upside and downside due to factors such as low upstream factory inventory, high coal prices, high overall mainland operating rates, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both ups and downs this week, affected by sanctions on Iran, with attention on subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operating rates. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2240 - 2310 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The mainland has cost - side support from low upstream factory inventory and high coal prices, but also faces supply pressure from high operating rates and negative feedback from olefin plants. The port is affected by sanctions on Iran, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The overall methanol price is expected to be volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol operating rates are down, some acetic acid plants are in production or have planned production, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 125.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.41 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 6.34 million tons to 87.70 million tons [5]. - **Market Price and Spread**: Various market prices and spreads are provided, including those of spot and futures markets, and different regional price differences. For example, the futures closing price was 2268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; the basis was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. Operating rates in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Production Profits**: Different production processes have different profit situations. For example, coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia had a profit of 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value; natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest had a profit of - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [19]. - **Downstream Product Data**: Traditional downstream product prices such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained stable. Production profits and operating rates of downstream products also showed different changes. For example, the profit of formaldehyde production was - 158 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton from the previous value; the operating rate was 25.42%, an increase of 0.90% from the previous value [29][34]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or reduced - load operation, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based plant has been shut down for maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1950 tons [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states, such as some in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, and some plants in other countries are operating normally or are in maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant were shut down for maintenance on March 15, 2025, with an expected maintenance period of 45 days [58].