供应 • 本周(20260102-0108)中国甲醇装置有效产能为10627.5万吨/年，剔除失效产能177万吨/年；产量为2042365吨，较上周减少6200吨；装置产能利用率为 91.42%，因产能基数下降，导致环比涨1.12%。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量205.18万吨左右，产能利用率91.84%左右，较本期微 涨。下周计划计划恢复涉及产能多于检修及减产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率提升，产量增加。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 烯烃：随着后期华东MTO检修计划落地，MTO行业存在负荷降低预期。 • 传统下游：二甲醚下周，重庆万利来存开车计划，预计供应有增量，整体产能利用率或较上期走高。冰醋酸下周建滔预计重启中，其他工厂暂无计划内 检修，预计下周产能利用率窄幅走高。甲醛下周，安徽及河南区域部分装置存提负预期，预计下周供应增量，产能利用率或将提升。氯化物下周期，衡 阳锦东、江西石磊装置或恢复正常运行，需关注降负装置恢复情况，预计下周国内甲烷氯化物产能利用率呈上升态势。（隆众资讯） 库存 • 截至2026年1月7日11：30，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存44.77万吨，较上期增加2.51万吨，环比 ...

研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.09」 甲醇市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线预计在2200-2300区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场继续走强运行为主，其中江苏价格波动区间在2210-2310元/吨，广 东价格波动在2190-2280元/吨。内地甲醇价格先涨后跌，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在 1843-1858元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2123-2140元/吨。受港口价格上行、烯烃外采增 加及下游节后补库支撑，周内多地价格走高；但随后港口烯烃装置停车、下游原料库存高企的利 空因素显现，高价货源成交乏力，市场价格随之回落。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量减少。 近期陕蒙甲醇项目运行相对平稳，但元旦小假期高速危化品限运，叠加叠加当前鲁北主力消费下 游原料库存高位，企业库存延续累积。港口方面，本周甲醇港 ...

本周甲醇总结：短期偏强 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251226-20260101)中国甲醇产量为2051065吨，较上周减少15110吨，装置产能利用率为90.31%，环比跌0.73%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量205.11万吨左右，产能利用率90.31% | | | | 左右，较本期微涨。下周计划计划恢复涉及产能多于检修及减产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率提升，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • • | 烯烃：华东MTO企业负荷仍有降低，青海盐湖MTO装置计划重启，行业开工预期看涨。 传统下游：二甲醚下周，场内装置延续前期停车，其他装置暂无调整预期，预计供应继续减量，整体产能利用率或较上期下降。冰醋酸河南顺达预计恢 | | 需求 | | 复满产，若无其他装置意外故障，预计下周产能利用率窄幅走高。甲醛下周，宁夏及陕西部分装置存停车计划，随着元旦过后环保管控进入尾声，部分 装置存重启预期，预计下周供应减量，产能利用率或将继续下降。氯化物下周 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期偏强 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期偏强 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251226-20260101)中国甲醇产量为2051065吨，较上周减少15110吨，装置产能利用率为90.31%，环比跌0.73%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量205.11万吨左右，产能利用率90.31% | | | | 左右，较本期微涨。下周计划计划恢复涉及产能多于检修及减产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率提升，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • • | 烯烃：华东MTO企业负荷仍有降低，青海盐湖MTO装置计划重启， ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.31」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线预计在2190-2280区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场继续偏强运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2200元/吨，广东价 格波动在2090-2130元/吨。内地甲醇价格延续疲软，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1870- 1900元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2160-2200元/吨。内地甲醇市场延续疲弱走势，企业出 货不畅致库存高企，降价去库成为主流操作。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 市场供应量增加，下游原料库存高位，采买积极性下降，内地项目延续稳定运行，本周内地企业 库存增加，短期供应相对充裕背景下，冬季部分需求预期偏弱不利于上游生产端出货节奏，库存 或整体维持增量预期。港口方面，本周甲醇港口库存继续累库，江苏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7]. - The port methanol market continued to be strong this week, while the inland market remained weak. Inland enterprises had high inventories due to poor sales, and price cuts to reduce inventory were the mainstream operation [8]. - Recently, the output loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production. With increased market supply, port goods continued to flow into the inland, and downstream raw material inventories were at a high level, reducing procurement enthusiasm. Inland projects continued to operate stably, and inland enterprise inventories increased this week. In the short - term, with relatively abundant supply, the weak winter demand expectation was unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventories were expected to increase overall. Port inventories increased significantly this week, mainly in Jiangsu. Next week, the arrival volume of foreign vessels will still be high, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [8]. - The operating loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China decreased slightly, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry continued to decline this week. In the short term, the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7]. - **Market Review**: The port methanol market was strong, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2090 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland market was weak, with prices in Ordos North Line ranging from 1870 - 1900 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2160 - 2200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland inventories increased, and port inventories were expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry was expected to decline slightly [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.61% [12]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 26, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 14 [16]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided other than the topic. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 26, there were 6748 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 41 from last week [24]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: As of December 25, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 285 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Prices**: As of December 24, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 252 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 68 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of December 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The NYMEX natural gas closed at 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42]. - **Industry**: As of December 25, China's methanol production was 2072175 tons, an increase of 16200 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80%. As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 40.40 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.28%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 19.36 million tons, a decrease of 2.68 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 141.25 million tons, an increase of 19.37 tons from the previous data. In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 141.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%; from January to November 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 1269.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60%. As of December 25, the methanol import profit was - 6.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.1 yuan/ton from last week [45][50][54]. - **Downstream**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 88.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. As of December 26, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 991 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]. 4. Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Strategy Suggestion - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland market was weak. The overall methanol production increased as the output from restored capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and reduction. Inland supply was abundant, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory showed a narrow decline overall, with different trends in East and South China. The MTO industry's weekly average operation rate decreased, but it is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Condition**: The port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. Inland prices were weak, with Ordos' price ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton and Dongying's receiving price from 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland supply was sufficient, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory decreased slightly overall. The MTO industry's operation rate is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 2.33% [12] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 19, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 26 [16] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 18, there were 6789 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1834 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Prices**: As of December 18, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2167.5 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1925 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 242.5 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from last week [29] - **Foreign Prices**: As of December 18, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 251 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week [34] - **Basis**: As of December 18, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 6.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4 Industry Chain - **Upstream**: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 18, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - **Industry**: As of December 18, China's methanol production was 2055975 tons, an increase of 18370 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.90%. As of December 17, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 39.11 million tons, an increase of 3.83 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 22.04 million tons, an increase of 1.30 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 121.88 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons from the previous period. In October 2025, China's methanol imports were 161.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports were 1127.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of December 18, the import profit was 5.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.7 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][54] - **Downstream**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. As of December 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1031 yuan/ton, a decrease of 198 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As of December 18, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 89.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. The Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continued to be shut down, and the weekly average MTO industry operation declined. The Lianhong Gerun MTO plant's production load was gradually increasing, and the short - term industry operation rate was expected to increase slightly. The MA2605 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 2130 - 2190 in the short term. The overall methanol supply was abundant. Due to the previous snowfall and downstream concentrated restocking during the week, the upstream loading and shipping pace slowed down, and the inventory of inland enterprises increased. The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol enterprises might still show a slight increase. The methanol port inventory decreased slightly this week. The提货 of the mainstream social warehouses in East China continued well, but a Zhejiang olefin plant's shutdown for maintenance continued to affect consumption. In South China, imports and domestic shipping vessels continued to replenish, the提货 volume of the main storage areas was okay, and the inventory increased slightly. The follow - up situation of foreign vessel unloading should be continuously monitored [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 42 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the main methanol contract was 867,499 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7,233 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 122,757 lots; the number of methanol warehouse receipts was 6,789, a week - on - week decrease of 920 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,095 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,937.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price difference was 150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 84 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main Chinese port was 249 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 318 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 69 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price was 4.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 79.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.1 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 41.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.54 tons; the methanol import profit was - 15.73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23.67 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 161.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.57 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 391,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate was 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate was 41.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operation rate was 8.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points; the acetic acid operation rate was 73.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.27 percentage points; the MTBE operation rate was 69.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the olefin operation rate was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit was - 1,043 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 14.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.42%, a week - on - week increase of 16.87 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 39.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.83 tons, or 10.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.04 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 tons, or 6.25%. As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 3.10 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 1.54 tons. The methanol port inventory decreased slightly this week. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the production capacity output from restarts, and the overall output increased. The operation of inland methanol projects was normal, and the overall supply was abundant [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-17甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 1、基本面：多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力，但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平，叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启，且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿，供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看，传统下游逐步进入需求淡季，但新增需求亮点显著：联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时， 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率，销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位，但期补库需求仍 存，形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面，港口库存虽然延 ...

需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，上周青海盐湖烯烃装置负荷提升，烯烃行业整体开工提升，宁 波富德后期预期停车检修，整体开工率预计有所下降。 库存方面，截至2025年12月10日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在123.44万吨，较上一期数据减少11.5万吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少10.82万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少0.68万吨。 12月11日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，甲醇期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约小幅 上涨1.41%，报2083.00元/吨。 供应方面，恒泰期货指出，当前伊朗终于开启了限气停车模式，但前期高位的开工支撑11月装船量再创 新高，目前在途货物仍有120万吨附近，且周末仍有船货在装并准备发出。虽12月非伊抵港量将大减， 但仍难敌伊朗货的充足供应。因此，12月甲醇进口供应继续延续高预期，但卸货情况仍需边走边看，随 着一些北方码头也开启了甲醇卸货业务，不排除12月中国沿海的中东主力区域月度卸货量将再创新高。 对于后市走势，光大期货表示，伊朗装置停车将导致12月中下旬至1月到港下滑，MTO装置检修和新投 产抵消，因此港口库存大概在今年12月中旬至明年1月初进入去库阶段，但由于 ...