Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 23, the domestic methanol-to-olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 91.44%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.97%. The load of individual enterprises in the northwest and east decreased, and the overall olefin industry's start-up declined this week. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price drops, the start-up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease in the short term. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,260 - 2,330 in the short term [2]. - With the support of downstream rigid demand, the inventory of domestic methanol enterprises has decreased this week. At the ports, due to weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels has continued to fall short of expectations, and the提货 volume of the mainstream social warehouses has significantly decreased. The methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week. The expected methanol imports in October are still sufficient, and the port inventory may still rise [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,292 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 31 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was -37 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 1,066,380 lots, a month-on-month decrease of 31,400 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -137,185 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 14,092, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,010 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 220 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -62 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 260 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was -65 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.44 US dollars/million British thermal units, a month-on-month decrease of 0.05 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.7 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 48.52 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.92 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 1.79 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 7.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 332,900 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 360,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 500 tons; the methanol enterprise start-up rate was 87.42%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.17 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start-up rate was 40.88%, a month-on-month increase of 6.77 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start-up rate was 5.92%, a month-on-month increase of 0.94 percentage points [2]. - The acetic acid start-up rate was 72.52%, a month-on-month decrease of 10.44 percentage points; the MTBE start-up rate was 63.12%, a month-on-month decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The olefin start-up rate was 92.39%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the methanol-to-olefins on - paper profit was -985 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.58%, a month-on-month increase of 0.88 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.72%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.21 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 360,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 50 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.13%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 215,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.79% [2]. - As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5122 million tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 30,000 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 9,200 tons. The methanol port inventory slightly increased this week [2]. - Recently, the production capacity loss caused by maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the production capacity output of recovery, and the overall output has decreased. The overall pressure on the supply side is not large [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 18. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand. The raw coal price is firm, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is also firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price of imports is stable, the import parity spread has widened. Iranian gas has not been restricted, and most Iranian plants are operating normally except Kimiya. The non - Iranian operating rate has increased, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference has continued to narrow, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran loaded 600,000 tons in September. Affected by sanctions, the price difference between Iranian and non - Iranian sources has widened rapidly, and non - Iranian supplies have increased. Some Iranian plants are reported to have suspended loading, and US dollar traders are taking profits at high prices. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined, while the MTO device operating rate has rebounded. In terms of inventory, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, with the increase in the international device operating rate, the resumption of some Iranian devices, and the increase in daily output to around 35,000 tons, imports are gradually recovering. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall transaction is light, and the spot basis is stable. The MTO demand is stable, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. Recently, in the peak season of coal demand, the coal price has rebounded, and the domestic supply is loose. The MTO operating rate in the inland is stable, and the CTO external procurement loss is close to the previous low. The Middle East situation is unclear, and the crude oil is oscillating weakly. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthening, and domestic commodities are oscillating widely, which has a greater impact on methanol futures. With the import interference slightly subsiding, methanol will mainly oscillate weakly under the background of high inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high levels but not chase short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; and sell call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the methanol market from aspects of raw coal, supply, import, demand, and inventory. It concludes that methanol will mainly oscillate weakly and provides trading strategies including unilateral shorting at high levels without chasing short positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 16, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.55%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 85.57%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in the country was 68.75%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From October 11 - 17, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1,075,859 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 73.75%. Iranian Kimiya shut down again, the Brunei device restarted in late September, a South American device restarted in the first ten - day period, and a Norwegian device was under maintenance [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of October 15, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 283,800 tons, including 260,500 tons of foreign vessels (202,700 tons of visible and 57,800 tons of non - visible, with 105,700 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 23,300 tons of domestic vessels (3,500 tons of non - visible in Jiangsu and 19,800 tons in Guangdong) [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 16, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 88.08%, the same as last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 94.21%, remaining stable and at a high level [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 18.88%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 72.52%, slightly decreasing. The formaldehyde operating rate was 40.88% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,000 tons, an increase of 44,300 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 236.90% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 98.64% [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of October 15, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 83,500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 31,700 tons [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] 3. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2260 yuan/ton (- 2), and the northern line price was 2040 yuan/ton (- 60) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the unloading of imported ships, the market's concerns about supply intensified, but the situation later eased. The futures price showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the monthly spread continuing to rise and the basis strengthening rapidly. The current spot market still has a high - inventory pattern, and the price difference between ports and inland areas has slightly strengthened [11]. - The domestic operating rate has declined from a high level, coal prices have strengthened leading to higher costs, and short - term imports have been affected with lower arrivals. The port olefin operating rate has remained flat, while the overall domestic olefin operating rate is at a high level. Traditional demand has weakened overall, with the operating rates of dimethyl ether and formaldehyde rising and the rest falling [11]. - The basis has quickly recovered from a low level to near 0, and the 1 - 5 spread has continued to rise due to near - term import impacts. Coal - to - methanol profits are still relatively high, but downstream profits are generally at a medium - to - low level, and methanol valuation is moderately high [11]. - Port inventories have decreased due to lower import arrivals, while enterprise inventories have increased slightly but are at a low level compared to the same period last year. The market logic is that short - term import disruptions have made port prices stronger than inland prices, leading to an increase in the basis and monthly spread, and an absolute price that first rose and then fell [11]. - Overall, the demand during the peak season has fallen short of expectations, the domestic inventory is high, and the pattern of weak reality remains unchanged. Short - term port pressure has been relieved due to the delayed unloading of imported goods. The potential upward driver for future prices lies in the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. Currently, the price has basically reflected the weak - reality pattern. In the future, attention should be focused on supply - side disruptions, and opportunities for long positions and 1 - 5 positive spreads should be considered on dips [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The futures price showed a pattern of rising first and then falling due to import impacts. The domestic operating rate was 87.42%, declining from a high level. Coal prices strengthened, and short - term imports were affected with lower arrivals. The port olefin operating rate was 88.08%, remaining flat. Traditional demand weakened overall. The basis recovered to near 0, and the 1 - 5 spread rose. Coal - to - methanol profits were still high, but downstream profits were at a medium - to - low level. Port inventories decreased by 5.18 tons to 149.14 tons, and enterprise inventories increased by 2.05 tons to 35.99 tons [11]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term import disruptions made port prices stronger, leading to an increase in the basis and monthly spread, and an absolute price that first rose and then fell. Import unloading was delayed, leading to lower arrivals and a reduction in port inventories. Domestic supply decreased slightly, and coal prices continued to rebound, causing a decline in coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remained weak [11]. - **Strategy**: Consider long positions and 1 - 5 positive spreads on dips [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: Near - term import disruptions have strengthened the 1 - 5 spread, and the basis has recovered to near 0 [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There has been an increase in open interest and a decline in price [23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits are good [41]. - **Port Inventory**: Port inventories are at a historical high [42]. - **Regional Inventory**: Factory inventories are at a low level compared to the same period last year [44]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: There are new methanol production capacities in the northwest region, with different raw materials and expected commissioning times [53]. - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: Supply has returned to a high level [55]. - **Import Volume**: Import volumes and arrivals have been affected, with different import situations from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia [62][71]. - **International Price Difference**: There are fluctuations in import profits and price differences between China and other regions [74]. - **Domestic Freight**: There are data on domestic methanol freight [82]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: There are consumption and inventory data for methanol [86]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: There are data on olefin operating rates, profits of related enterprises, and relevant price differences [88][92][99]. - **PP Production Profits by Different Processes**: There are data on production profits of PP by oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based processes [96]. - **MTO - Related Price Differences**: There are data on price differences such as PP - 3MA and LL - 3MA [99]. - **Formaldehyde and Dimethyl Ether Operating Rates and Profits**: There are data on the operating rates and profits of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether [111]. - **Downstream Inventory**: There are data on downstream operating rates, profits, and inventories [114]. - **Related Product Ratios**: There are data on ratios between methanol and other products such as urea, INE crude oil, and动力煤 [117]. 3.6 Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: There are data on option trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility [122][124]. 3.7 Industry Structure Chart - There are charts showing the methanol industry chain and research framework analysis [127][129].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly. Although Inner Mongolia olefins continue to purchase externally, after the holiday, with sufficient enterprise inventories, suppliers have offered discounts to sell. Some imported goods at ports have flowed back to the inland, leading to a bearish sentiment in the sales area. The port market has been driven by sanction news and the late - session rise of futures, with port spot prices slightly firm, and the basis maintaining a strengthening trend. The short - term domestic market is expected to adjust narrowly [5]. - The basis of the 01 contract shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor. As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China has increased, and the overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has also increased, which is a bearish factor. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, both of which are bearish factors. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2250 - 2355 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional performance. Inland prices have dropped, while port prices are slightly firm. The short - term market is expected to have a narrow adjustment. The price of MA2601 is expected to oscillate between 2250 - 2355 [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly [7]. - Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin, and current sales are active [7]. - Due to poor sales, inventories at some production plants in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.92% week - on - week, while the price in Hebei has decreased by 0.45%. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased by 68 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [8][9]. - The basis has increased by 53 yuan/ton, and the import spread has increased by 68 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. Inventory Data - As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China is 1273,000 tons, an increase of 4900 tons compared to before the holiday. The overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has increased by 59,900 tons to 940,500 tons [5]. Profit Data - The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. Coal - to - methanol profit has increased by 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, while natural gas - to - methanol profit remains unchanged, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit has increased by 326 yuan/ton [21]. Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged week - on - week. The production profits and operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTO have also changed to varying degrees [29][34][37][41][46]. 4. Maintenance Status - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance. In the Northwest region, enterprises such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are under maintenance. In the East China region, enterprises such as Jinmei Zhongneng and Anhui Linhong Coking are under maintenance. In the Southwest region, enterprises such as Sichuan Lutianhua and Yunnan Qujing are under maintenance. In the Northeast region, enterprises such as Heilongjiang Baojia are under maintenance [57]. - Overseas methanol production enterprises also have different operating conditions. Some Iranian enterprises are in the process of resuming production, while some enterprises in other countries are under maintenance or have normal operations [58]. - Some domestic olefin production enterprises are under maintenance. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, expected to last for 45 days [59].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （10.9 -10.10 ） 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：供应端对市场有一定压力，短线来看国内甲醇或震荡偏弱。内地方面，部分产区甲醇装置近 期陆续恢复，内地甲醇整体开工走高，且长假期间受下游接货有限以及危化品高速公路限运等影响，产区甲 醇工厂库存有一定累积。另外港口延续累库，部分进口货源倒流内地，对局部地区也有一定冲击。但同时下 游和贸易商也有补货需求，刚需需求仍在，或能缓解跌幅。港口方面，节前港口甲醇市场跟随期货窄幅波 动，节后加速下跌。节前华东甲市场方向性缺失，区间波动为主；节中海外货源持续发货，节后库存有所累 积，节后首日市场空头氛围较浓，现货加速下跌。 国内甲醇现 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the long holiday, trading in the domestic methanol market gradually weakened, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will have limited fluctuations next week. Inland, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, and the procurement volume is expected to shrink in the later period, with tightened transportation capacity and most traders staying on the sidelines. With large - scale external procurement by CTO plants in the northwest this week, upstream methanol plants have little inventory and no need to destock before the holiday. Without obvious influencing factors, the inland methanol market is expected to have a quiet consolidation before the holiday. In the port area, the short side of the futures still has the upper hand, and the methanol market price is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment before the holiday. There are many variables in October, mainly focusing on whether some Iranian plants will be shut down for maintenance as scheduled, the reduction in shipping volume, and the degree of inventory reduction at ports. With marginal improvement in fundamentals, pay attention to low - buying opportunities in the port market under speculation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - Near the long holiday, trading in the domestic methanol market gradually weakened, with limited fluctuations expected next week. Inland, downstream procurement is expected to shrink and transportation capacity is tight. Northwest CTO plants' large - scale procurement keeps upstream inventory low. The inland market is expected to consolidate quietly before the holiday. In the port area, the futures short side dominates, with prices expected to fluctuate. In October, focus on Iranian plant maintenance, shipping volume, and port inventory reduction, and look for low - buying opportunities [5]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From September 19th to September 26th, the prices in different regions had different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.13%, Hebei decreased by 2.81%, and Fujian decreased by 0.65%, while the prices in Shandong (Lunan) and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [6]. Methanol Basis - From September 19th to September 26th, the spot price decreased by 0.13%, the futures price decreased by 0.25%, and the basis increased by 3 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 15, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit decreased by 327 [11]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices remained unchanged, and the spread also had little change [16]. Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased by 0.03%, and the import spread decreased by 4 [19]. Traditional Methanol Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from September 19th to September 26th [26]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 29, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% [27]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 92, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% [29]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 2, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% [34]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 10, and the load decreased by 0.15% to 79.69% [38]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased by 2.78, and in the South China port, it decreased by 3.39 [39]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased by 14.56% to 11332, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% to 0 [44]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, planned maintenance, or experiencing production reduction. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding production losses [47]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Some overseas methanol plants are in different operation states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and some plants in other countries are also in normal operation, maintenance, or shutdown states [48]. Olefin Plant Operation - Different olefin plants in various regions have different operation states. Some are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some are in the process of starting up or shutting down. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is in maintenance, while some plants in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions are operating stably [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased this week, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. Port inventory increased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week, subject to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货 volume [8]. - The olefin operating rate increased this week after hedging, and is expected to continue to rise next week with the restart of some devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic port methanol market was strong this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2260 - 2320 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2260 - 2300 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise. Due to factors such as pre - holiday replenishment by downstream and stable olefin demand, the marketable volume of goods in the production area was tight, and the receiving price in northern Shandong increased steadily [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreased, and the overall inventory level remained low. Port inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week. The olefin operating rate increased this week and is expected to rise further next week [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main methanol futures contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 0.76% [11]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 19, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 20 [14]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 18, there were 10,270 methanol warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 4,780 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of September 19, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 175.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of September 18, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [33]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of September 17, the market price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of September 18, China's methanol production was 1,813,165 tons, a decrease of 106,100 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 5.52% month - on - month. As of September 17, the total port inventory was 1.5578 million tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a decrease of 9.63% month - on - month; from January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a decrease of 14.66% year - on - year. As of September 18, the methanol import profit was 5.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.55 yuan/ton from last week [44][48][51]. - **Downstream**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.89%, an increase of 2.23% month - on - month. As of September 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 969 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan/ton from last week [54][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is expected to show regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate, and the MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral. The supply in inland production areas is tight due to increased olefin demand, and the downstream in sales areas has pre - holiday stocking demand, but the port's ability to flow goods back to the inland restricts price increases. The port has a strong far - month expectation due to reduced imports, but high inventory restricts the spot market. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has increased, which is also bearish. The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the line, which is neutral. The main position is net long with an increase in longs, which is bullish [5] 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic methanol plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production is affected by gas shortages and equipment shutdowns, some acetic acid plants are put into production or have production plans, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6] - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined, coal - to - methanol plants have profit margins and are actively selling, and some production area plants have accumulated inventory [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2310 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is - 65. Domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have different trends, with some rising and some falling slightly. International methanol prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia also have certain changes [5][8][9] - **Inventory data**: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, an increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5] - **Operating rate data**: The weighted average national operating rate of methanol plants is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased to varying degrees [8] - **Profit data**: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. Coal - to - methanol has a profit of 335 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol has a loss of 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol has a profit of 513 yuan/ton [22] - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable. The production profits and loads of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO also have different trends [33][36][39][42][47] 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or production reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58] - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have low operating rates, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [59] - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants in the Northwest, East China, and other regions are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Yan'an Energy and Chemical Industry, etc. [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2490 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production. The inventory of inland enterprises has increased this week. The port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly as expected, and the reverse flow to the inland has significantly boosted the import demand. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels will change little, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly after hedging [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2490 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The average price of the domestic port methanol market continued to decline this week with a reduced amplitude. The inland methanol market also continued to decline. The price of Ordos in the main production area fluctuated between 2042 - 2057 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying fluctuated at 2295 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall production has increased slightly. The inland enterprise inventory has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. The import demand may be stable next week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a +2.29% increase [12] - Inter - delivery spread: As of September 5, the MA 1 - 5 spread was 5 [14] - Position analysis: As of September 4, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 10,036, an increase of 290 from last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of September 5, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2067.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 207.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Overseas price: As of September 4, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 259 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of September 5, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton from last week [39] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of September 3, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of September 4, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.06 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - Industry: As of September 4, China's methanol production was 1,962,815 tons, an increase of 43,690 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. As of September 3, the total port inventory was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 341,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of September 4, the import profit was 11.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.42 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][53] - Downstream: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 87.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. As of September 5, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week [56][59]