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欧盟碳市场行情简报(2025年第101期)-20250616
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 05:25
Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 101 in 2025) [1] Release Date - June 16, 2025 [2] Latest Situation - Concerns about LNG supply disruptions have intensified, and excessively high energy prices may hinder industrial production [2] Auction Information - On June 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 75.36 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 1.607 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.84, and the auction revenue was 121.1 million euros [4] - On June 12, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.31, and the auction revenue was 235.98 million euros [4] Futures and Spot Information Futures - On June 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 75.94 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 29,700 lots (down 0.70), and the open interest was 32.45 (up 0.20) [2][5] Spot - On June 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 74.46 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 718 lots (down 4,564), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.96 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 0.70% [5] Investment Strategy - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Bullish Factors - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices; the failure of the French Civaux nuclear power plant has led to an increase in natural gas and electricity prices in the European continent; the European Commission will propose new regulations on June 17, requiring energy companies to fully disclose the terms, volumes, and destinations of Russian gas contracts, aiming to ban the import of Russian gas by the end of 2027 [2] Bearish Factors - Affected by weak industrial demand and increased domestic pipeline natural gas supply, China's LNG imports have dropped significantly [3]
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第94期)-20250613
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 13:00
全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第94期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-06-13 秒底需求增加,CEA强势反弹 今日 1、CEA:CEA23、24重回70元上方;挂牌1.5万吨,大宗42.0万吨 行情 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量0.11万吨,成交均价89.32元/吨(2.34%) 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 大宗协议成交量 42.00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 3004. 64 0. 00 0. 00 88. 75 0.00 图表3:CEA大宗成交均价(元/吨) 图表2:CEA收盘价(元/吨) 元/吨 -- 碳配额19-20 --- 碳配额21 -- 碳配额22 元/吨 -- 碳配额19-20 -- 碳配额21 -- 碳配额22 120 120 碳配额24 碳配额23 碳配额24 碳配额23 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 2023-07 2024-07 2022-07 2021-07 2024-07 ...
欧盟碳市场行情简报(2025年第100期)-20250613
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 08:49
Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 100, 2025) [1] Report Date - June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, with the price trends of the primary and secondary markets of EUA diverging. The short - term outlook is bearish, and the medium - term outlook is volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 72.71 euros/ton (-1.07%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.31 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.39 euros/ton (1.39%), and the trading volume is 36,700 lots (0.64) [2] Strategy - Short - term: Bearish; Medium - term: Volatile, range €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic - **Likely to Rise**: Israel's air strike on Iran makes the US - Iran peace talks scheduled for the weekend likely to be hopeless, and crude oil continues to rise significantly. Japan expands LNG procurement from the US to diversify procurement risks in the Middle East and the Asia - Pacific [2][3] - **Likely to Fall**: The EU accelerates the laying of high - voltage cables to support the integration of renewable energy into the grid [4] Risks - The EU resumes Russian gas supply; The EU increases auctions to raise funds; The emission cap is weakened [4] Chart Information - **Chart 1**: Shows EUA auction volume, CBAM certificate price, EUA auction price, auction revenue, and bid coverage ratio on June 11 - 12, 2025 [4] - **Chart 2**: Seasonal chart of EUA auction price trend - **Chart 3**: Seasonal chart of EUA auction bid coverage ratio - **Chart 4**: Shows EUA futures and spot market information on June 11 - 12, 2025, including futures settlement price, volume, open interest, spot settlement price, volume, container shipping carbon cost, etc. [4] - **Chart 5**: EUA futures and spot prices and basis - **Chart 6**: Seasonal chart of December contract open interest
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第93期)-20250612
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 09:50
(1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2CEA价格跌至70元附近后,抄底需求有所显现,但目前强制流通配额释放不足,潜在 抛压仍存、市场价格震荡磨底,仍缺乏上行驱动;考虑到核查节点,6月中下旬成交量 有望攀升,预计6月底部区间62~66元/吨。 3若盈余企业卖出节点继续后移,价格底部或越低,反弹高度越有限;若单日成交量 能够明显起量,强劲上涨动能或出现在三季度末。 风险 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第93期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-06-12 CEA缩量反弹,参与者挺价意愿较强 今日 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废:2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现;3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 ...
欧盟碳市场行情简报(2025年第99期)-20250612
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The auction price of EUA is 73.5 euros/ton (up 1.86%), with a bid - cover ratio of 1.56; the EUA futures settlement price is 74.36 euros/ton (up 2.34%), and the trading volume is 30,300 lots (up 0.28). The short - term strategy is bearish, and the medium - term is range - bound between €67 - 75. The latest CoT report shows that last week, investment funds' net long positions increased by 5.74 million tons, nearly half of which came from short - covering. The TTF strengthened due to factors such as French nuclear power maintenance and the EU's proposal to end the secret import of fuel from Russia. There are no new negative factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market - **Auction**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA auction price was 73.50 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.0725 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.56, and the auction revenue was 152.33 million euros. On June 10, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.16 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.64, and the auction revenue was 234.20 million euros [3]. - **Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.36 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume was 30,300 lots, up 0.28. The open interest was 32.07 million lots, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 73.43 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume decreased by 3,958 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.83 US dollars/TEU, with a freight rate ratio of 0.77% [4].
欧盟碳市场行情简报(2025年第98期)-20250611
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 11:21
唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 ☆ 欲获取更多碳交易研究产品, 请咨询对口销售。 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 联系电话:021-33037830 重要声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 苦给您造成不便, 教请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者,请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个,亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议,且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而视其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资并。本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作,本公司不对固使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识产 叙。未经本公司事先书面午可,任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分冈赛。 国泰君安期货 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第98期) 发布日期:2025-06- ...
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第91期)-20250610
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 12:13
Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 91, 2025) [1] - Release Date: June 10, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The single - day trading volume of CEA exceeded 1 million tons again, and the CEA price was weakly stable. CEA23 and CEA24 showed a differentiated trend, with 27,000 tons in the listing market and 990,000 tons in the bulk market. The listing agreement trading volume of CCER was 20,000 tons, and the average trading price was 88 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.64% [4] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4] - After the CEA price fell to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is insufficient, potential selling pressure still exists, the market price is fluctuating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. Considering the verification node, the trading volume is expected to rise in the middle and late June, and the bottom range in June is expected to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton [5] - If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height may be more limited. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Summary by Catalog CEA Market - **Price and Volume Information**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 67 yuan/ton, 67.5 yuan/ton, 67 yuan/ton, 68.6 yuan/ton, and 68.25 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.44%, and 0.37% respectively. The total trading volumes were 0 tons, 0 tons, 0 tons, 25,700 tons, and 991,000 tons respectively. The listing agreement trading volumes were 0 tons, 0 tons, 0 tons, 25,700 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively, and the bulk agreement trading volume of CEA24 was 990,000 tons. The total turnovers were 68.3763 million yuan, 0 yuan, 0 yuan, 1.7642 million yuan, and 0 yuan respectively [7][8] CCER Market - The average trading price was 88 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.64%. The trading volume was 20,000 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 2.0016 million tons [9]
欧盟碳市场行情简报(2025年第97期)-20250610
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 06:42
欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第97期) 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 ☆ 欲获取更多碳交易研究产品, 请咨询对口销售。 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 联系电话:021-33037830 国泰君安期货 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 苦给您造成不便, 教请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者,请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个,亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议,且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而视其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资并。本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作,本公司不对固使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识产 叙。未经本公司事先书面午可,任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分冈赛。 发布日期:2025-06-10 继续 ...
欧盟碳市场行情简报(2025年第96期)-20250609
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:36
欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第96期) 重要声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安邦货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 苦给您造成不便, 教请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者,请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个,亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议,且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而视其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资并。本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作,本公司不对固使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识产 叙。未经本公司事先书面午可,任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分冈赛。 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 国泰君安期货 | EUA拍卖量 | EUA拍卖价格 | CBAM证书价格 | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第89期)-20250606
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 11:45
Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 89, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: 2025-06-06 [3] Investment Strategy - Strategy Suggestion: Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4]. Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, there was some bottom-fishing demand. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is currently insufficient, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward momentum. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to rise in mid-to-late June, and the bottom range in June is estimated to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton. - If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the single-day trading volume can increase significantly, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6]. Market Quotes CEA Spot Quotes | | CEA19 - 20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 67.00 | 67.50 | 67.00 | 69.26 | 68.76 | | Daily Change (%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 0.98% | | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | | 0.50 | -0.50 | 2.26 | -0.50 | | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 68.45 | | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 121.94 | | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 6.94 | | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 115.00 | | Total Turnover (10,000 yuan) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8349.17 | [8][9] CCER Trading Information - Transaction Average Price: 85.00 yuan/ton - Daily Change: 0.00% - Turnover: 0.85 million yuan - Trading Volume: 0.01 million tons - Cumulative Trading Volume: 188.06 million tons [10] Today's Market Summary - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 rebounded slightly. The listing trading volume was 11.9 million tons, and the bulk trading volume was 115.0 million tons. - CCER: The listing agreement trading volume was 0.01 million tons, and the transaction average price was 85.00 yuan/ton (0.00% change) [12]