2025 年 4 月 28 日 关税缓解 铝价震荡回升 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 ⚫ 上周贸易战传缓和风险情绪释放。海外经济数据好 坏参半，欧美制造业PMI强于预期，但世界货币基 金组织下调全球经济增速，未来全球需求忧虑仍 存。国内政治局会议召开，会议要求强化底线思维， 备足预案，"稳就业"成为首要任务。预计二季度 将加快落实相关政策。基本面，供应端电解铝产能 大稳小动，仍以山东至云南的置换产能为主。消费 端，下游加工企业开工分化，线缆及工业型材板块 保持增速，铝合金及板带板块稳定，贸易摩擦下后 续铝箔板块或受影响下行。不过临近五一小长假， 下游备货意愿稍强，接货较好。上周铝锭社会库存 电解铝锭库存65.8万吨，较周四减少3.1万吨；国 内主流消费地铝棒库存17.78万吨，较上周四减少 3.14万吨万吨。 ⚫ 综上，市场消化关税缓和消息及过内政策利好，将 推动市场部分逢低买盘。不过还需看到美国的明确 关税新高与之相互矛盾，且经济数据好坏参半，全 球需求担忧仍存。基本面供应稳定，消费旺季尾声， 需求尚有韧性，本周正值五一 ...

在"双碳"目标的战略指引下，全国碳排放权交易市场（以下简称全国碳市场）作为推动绿色低碳发展的 核心政策工具，正迎来新一轮扩容。2025年3月，生态环境部正式印发《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢 铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方案》（以下简称《方案》），明确将钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼三大重点行业纳 入全国碳市场，覆盖温室气体排放量新增约30亿吨二氧化碳当量，占全国总量的比例从45%跃升至60% 以上。 此次扩容标志着我国碳市场建设从"单一行业试点"迈向"多行业协同治理"、从"夯基垒台"迈向"提质增 效"新阶段。同时，这也对全国碳市场机制的完善性、数据质量的可靠性、行业差异的包容性提出了更 高要求，既需要破除数据壁垒、优化制度设计，更需要激发市场活力、培育创新生态，以坚持"稳中求 进"的总基调，统筹发展与减排、整体与局部、短期与长期的关系，以真正发挥碳市场对绿色低碳发展 的战略支撑作用，为全球气候治理贡献中国智慧与中国方案。 选择钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业扩容势在必行 行业特性决定减排必要性。钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼是典型的高耗能、高排放行业，其碳排放强度显著高于 其他制造业领域。以钢铁行业为例，生产1吨粗钢平均排放约1.8吨二氧化碳（C ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of domestic and international commodities, futures, and stocks, along with important macro - level news and policy updates. It also includes data on various industries such as energy, metals, agriculture, finance, real estate, and international economic indicators, reflecting the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial markets. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures night - session closed generally higher, with most energy and chemical products rising, but some like crude oil falling. Black - series all rose, agricultural products mostly rose, and basic metals had mixed performance. For example, soda ash rose 1.33%, and coke rose 1.82% [2][62]. - International oil prices weakened, with concerns about OPEC+ increasing production and global economic uncertainty. The US crude oil main contract fell 2.18%, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.97% [2]. - International precious metal futures closed with mixed results. COMEX gold futures fell 3.45%, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.01% [3]. - CBOT agricultural product futures main contracts mostly fell, except for soybeans which rose 0.53% [3]. - London basic metals mostly rose, with LME aluminum rising 2.22% [3]. Important News - **Macro News** - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will strengthen the carbon - emission trading market, ensuring new - entrant training and cracking down on data fraud [7]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the need for the US to stop threats and engage in equal - footing dialogue [7]. - The US Middle - East envoy will visit Russia for Ukraine - related talks [7]. - Trump stated he had no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary reaffirmed the strong - dollar policy and called for international financial system re - balancing [8]. - US April PMI data showed mixed trends, with service PMI at a 2 - month low and manufacturing PMI at a 2 - month high [8]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicated economic uncertainty due to tariffs [12]. - Trump criticized Zelensky's remarks on Crimea as harmful to peace talks [13]. - Congo (Kinshasa) and the rebel group "M23 Movement" expressed hope for a cease - fire [14]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures** - UAE's Fujairah port's refined - oil inventory decreased to a four - week low, with different trends for light, medium, and heavy fractions [16]. - China's methanol port inventory decreased, with both East and South China regions de - stocking [16]. - Japan's commercial crude - oil inventory decreased, while gasoline inventory increased [16]. - Some OPEC+ members may propose accelerating oil production in June [19]. - US EIA data showed a decrease in crude - oil exports and production, and an increase in commercial inventory [19]. - Kazakhstan may prioritize national interests over OPEC+ in oil - production decisions [19]. - **Metal Futures** - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted margin levels and price - limit ranges for gold and silver contracts [21]. - Peru's Antamina copper mine had an accident, leading to a full - scale shutdown for safety and investigation [21]. - The passenger - car market in China showed growth in April 1 - 20 sales compared to last year but a decline compared to last month [21]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees for the AU2506 gold - futures contract [24]. - **Black - series Futures** - In March 2025, global crude - steel production increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with China, India, and the US showing different trends [26]. - In mid - April, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 5.6% month - on - month [26]. - **Agricultural Product Futures** - India's palm - oil imports are expected to increase from May to September [28]. - Corn - starch enterprise inventory increased slightly, with a 0.29% weekly increase [28]. - China's pig prices rose 0.7% in the third week of April after 10 weeks of decline [28]. - Argentina's soybean harvest may accelerate due to dry conditions, with an expected yield of 4860 tons [31]. - Brazil's April soybean export forecast was adjusted down to 1430 tons, while the soybean - meal export forecast remained unchanged [32]. - The expected US soybean export net sales for 2024/25 and 2025/26 were estimated [33]. Financial Market - **Finance** - By the end of Q1, 162 public - fund institutions managed a total of 31.05 trillion yuan, with the top 10 fund companies named. The number of active - equity fund managers with over 100 million yuan in management decreased [35]. - In Q1 2024, public funds had a profit of 2528.54 billion yuan, a more than 10 - fold increase year - on - year [35]. - Shandong Feiyin Payment Information Technology Co., Ltd. cancelled its payment license, and the number of licensed payment institutions decreased to 170 [35]. - **Real Estate** - Xiamen optimized its housing - expropriation compensation policy, allowing house - tickets for second - hand housing and offering a 5% bonus for new - house purchases within 6 months [38]. - Qingdao released its 2025 housing - development plan, covering multiple aspects such as housing supply and renovation [38]. - Zhengzhou proposed to adjust the upper - age limit for housing - provident - fund loans [38]. - **Industry** - In Q1, domestic tourism had a 26.4% increase in trips and an 18.6% increase in spending [39]. - The National Robotics Standardization Technical Committee and the International Starlink Alliance signed a cooperation agreement for robot standardization [39]. - India imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping tax on Chinese aniline [40]. - **Overseas** - The Fed's Beige Book showed little economic change but high trade - policy uncertainty [41]. - The US President may exempt some tariffs for automakers and steel and aluminum [44]. - The US State Department will implement a restructuring plan, cutting 15% of domestic staff and closing 132 offices [44]. - In February, EU exports to the US increased by 22.4%, and imports from the US increased by 2.4% [44]. - The IMF predicted that tariff hikes would increase global public - debt - to - GDP ratio [44]. - April PMI data for various countries showed different economic trends, with India having high - growth PMIs [45]. - **International Stock Market** - Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.93% [52]. - Apple and Meta were fined 500 million euros and 200 million euros respectively by the EU [53]. - Musk will focus more on Tesla in May [54]. - Intel may cut over 20% of its staff and participated in the Shanghai Auto Show [57]. - Many companies released their financial reports, with different profit and revenue performances [57]. - **Commodities** - Similar to the overnight market trends, domestic commodity futures had mixed results, and there were policy and event updates such as copper - mine accidents and OPEC+ production - increase discussions [62]. - **Bonds** - Treasury - bond futures fell, and bond yields generally rose. The inter - bank market had loose funds [72]. - Some bonds will be fully redeemed, and some companies had negative credit events [72]. - **Foreign Exchange** - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 190 basis points at 16:30 on Wednesday, and the central parity rate was depreciated by 42 basis points [73].

2025 年 04 月 18 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：价格承压 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong013179@gtjas.com | 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | --- | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 19645 | 100 | -160 | -1280 | 80 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 19730 | ー | ー | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2385 | -4 | 1 ୧ | -306 | -107 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 147942 | 7211 | -75186 | -15286 | -12002 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 218124 | -2802 | 88452 | -44712 | 71498 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 10519 | -854 | -11282 | -6664 | -9826 | | | LME注销仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hubei province is leveraging its ecological advantages to develop a carbon finance ecosystem, with the establishment of the national carbon market registration and settlement platform ("Zhong Carbon Registration") in Wuhan serving as a catalyst for innovation in carbon financial products and services [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Finance Development - The People's Bank of China Hubei Branch has been actively promoting financial product and service innovation based on green assets, leading to the emergence of pioneering products such as carbon emission rights pledge loans and carbon asset custody [2]. - The current development of carbon finance in China faces several bottlenecks, including the unclear legal status of carbon emission rights, which complicates their pledge and collateralization [2][3]. Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Recommendations - To protect the rights of financial institutions in carbon emission rights pledge loans, it is recommended to establish national-level management measures and operational guidelines for carbon quota registration, pledging, and disposal [3]. - The suggestion includes utilizing the Zhong Carbon Registration's freezing function for pledged carbon emission rights to mitigate risks such as double pledging [3]. Group 3: Market Participation and Infrastructure - Financial institutions are currently unable to directly participate in the national carbon market, which limits the development of carbon finance and may lead to asset losses in case of loan defaults [4]. - It is proposed that financial institutions be allowed to participate in the national carbon emission rights trading market to enhance market liquidity and ensure the legality of their trading qualifications [4]. Group 4: Future Directions for Carbon Finance - Support is recommended for the Zhong Carbon Registration to leverage its core infrastructure advantages to establish a carbon clearinghouse in Wuhan, attracting various carbon finance entities and fostering innovation in carbon finance [5]. - The creation of a "Zhong Carbon Index" is suggested to stabilize carbon price expectations and provide clear pricing signals for carbon asset rights, trading, and pricing [5].