Report Summary Key Points - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the US House of Representatives, and President Trump will sign it on Saturday morning. The bill will cut medical and food safety net programs and cancel dozens of green energy incentives, increasing the US debt by $3.4 trillion to $36.2 trillion [1]. - On July 3, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 4.30%, with a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day, and the 10 - 2 - year spread was 0.47%, down 5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. - For the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market on July 3, 2025, the gold trading volume was 31,568 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day, and the silver trading volume was 585,448 kg, up 12.30% from the previous trading day [7]. Market Data Futures Market - On July 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 779.02 yuan/gram and closed at 781.28 yuan/gram, up 0.68% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 189,582 lots, and the open interest was 175,461 lots. The night - session closed at 775.68 yuan/gram, down 0.40% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 3, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,784 yuan/kg and closed at 8,944 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 427,766 lots, and the open interest was 272,055 lots. The night - session closed at 8,926 yuan/kg, up 0.67% from the afternoon close [2]. Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2502 contract on July 3, 2025, long positions changed by - 52 lots, and short positions changed by - 66 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 267,542 lots, down 11.96% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 601 lots, and short positions increased by - 523 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 923,327 lots, down 47.09% from the previous trading day [4]. ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 947.966 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings were 14,868.74 tons, up 22.62 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Arbitrage Tracking - On July 3, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 0.14 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 733.00 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 87.35, down 1.54% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 91.57, with a change of - 0.93% from the previous trading day [6]. Strategies - **Gold**: Cautiously bullish. In the short - term, it is recommended to buy low and sell high between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram. In the medium - to - long - term, start to lightly build long - term positions from the 760 yuan/gram level [8]. - **Silver**: Cautiously bullish. Temporarily buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range recommended between 8,640 yuan/kg and 8,660 yuan/kg, and set the stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - **Options**: Put on hold.

贵金属日报 | 2025-07-03 经济数据表现较差 9月降息预期再度增强 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，在经济数据方面，美国6月ADP就业人数减少3.3万人，为2023年3月以来最大降幅；6月挑战者企业裁员人 数录得4.7999万人，为2024年12月以来新低。目前利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降息。此外，特朗普宣布与 越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将对美国全面开放，越南将向美国支付20%的关税，适用于任何进入美国领土的商 品，且对转运货物征收40%的关税；越南国家媒体称美国将大幅削减多种越南产品的关税。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-02，沪金主力合约开于 780.80元/克，收于 776.04元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.01%。当日成交量为 202457手，持仓量为 168596手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 779.02 元/克，收于 779.66 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.26%。 2025-07-02，沪银主力合约开于 8802元/千克，收于 8747元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 323881手，持仓量 249023手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,784 元/千克 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk sentiment has grown as the Israel-Iran conflict eases. The expectation of a looser Fed monetary policy mainly affects risk assets, causing the gold price to fluctuate downward. In the long term, the real interest rate is likely to decline. Gold remains an irreplaceable investment if the expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale persists. For gold, short - term trading can be done by selling high and buying low between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and long - term positions can be lightly established based on the 740 yuan/gram level. For silver, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,640 yuan/kg to 8,660 yuan/kg with a stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US economic data is poor. The Chicago business activity index in June dropped slightly to 40.4 from 40.5 in May, lower than the expected 43.0, the lowest since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic activity contraction. The Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut this year and three next year. Goldman Sachs advanced its prediction of the Fed rate cut to September. Trump criticized the Fed, and there are speculations about Powell's successor [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 764.10 yuan/gram and closed at 767.58 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 211,285 lots, and the open interest was 155,821 lots. In the night session, it opened at 766.18 yuan/gram and closed at 768.98 yuan/gram, up 0.54% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,716 yuan/kg and closed at 8,762 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,424 lots, and the open interest was 277,702 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,737 yuan/kg and closed at 8,722 yuan/kg, up 0.10% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, with a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.52%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 129 lots and the short positions by 52 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 398,616 lots, up 4.72% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 10 lots and the short positions decreased by 1,436 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 949,707 lots, down 13.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,826.61 tons, down 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On June 30, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 553.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 87.60, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.86, with a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,766 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 487,620 kg, with a change of 2.21% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,240 kg [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the paradox of a declining macroeconomic environment in the U.S. alongside a record-high stock market, driven by the popularity of stablecoins and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][2] - The GENIUS Act aims to strengthen the U.S. dollar's position in the global monetary system while addressing the increasing federal debt and its impact on national credibility [2][4] - The stablecoin market is experiencing significant growth, with the U.S. Senate's recent legislation removing regulatory barriers and establishing a framework for stablecoin issuance and management [3][4] Group 2 - The GENIUS Act has three main objectives: consumer protection, enabling responsible innovation, and maintaining the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global market [4][3] - The current market share of dollar-pegged stablecoins is 99.81%, with Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) having market capitalizations of $157.6 billion and $61.7 billion, respectively [4] - Major companies are increasingly adopting stablecoin payment systems, recognizing their potential to reduce transaction costs and enhance payment efficiency [6][8] Group 3 - Stablecoins are seen as a bridge between traditional finance and modern digital finance, aiming to lower transaction costs and improve economic efficiency through blockchain technology [7][8] - The global remittance cost has slightly decreased, indicating a potential for stablecoins to further reduce costs in cross-border transactions [7] - The competitive landscape for stablecoins is intensifying, with various countries and financial centers developing their own regulatory frameworks to establish a foothold in the digital finance era [4][3] Group 4 - The stablecoin market is still in its early stages, facing challenges such as financial stability risks, regulatory gaps, and potential misuse for illegal activities [10] - The proposed legislation must pass the House of Representatives and be signed by the President to take effect, with a target completion date before the congressional recess [10]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expressed a desire for the House of Representatives to expedite the legislative process and swiftly pass the stablecoin bill [1] Group 1 - The stablecoin bill is aimed at providing regulatory clarity and stability in the cryptocurrency market [1] - The urgency in passing the legislation reflects the growing importance of stablecoins in the financial ecosystem [1] - The administration's support indicates a potential shift towards more favorable regulatory conditions for digital currencies [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts ease [2][4]. - Silver: Retreats from high levels [2][4]. - Copper: Strong spot market for LME copper supports prices [2][11]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a bullish bias [2][14]. - Alumina: Rebounds significantly [2][14]. - Zinc: Under pressure [2][17]. - Lead: Adjusts within a short - term range [2][19]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2][22]. - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end ease, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with weak supply - demand and low - level oscillations [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 were 785.08, 782.94, and 3406.50 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.91%, - 0.63%, and 0.06%. The previous closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508 and Comex Silver 2508 were 8864 and 37.180, with daily changes of 0.07% and 2.23% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump claimed full control of Iranian airspace; Israeli military said it destroyed Iranian uranium - enrichment facilities; US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US Senate passed a stablecoin bill; Bank of Japan maintained interest rates [5][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 0 [9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,380, down 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78560, up 0.23%. The previous closing price of LME Copper 3M was 9,670, down 0.26% [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's remarks on Iran; Chile's state - owned copper company's production increased by 20.5% year - on - year in April; Kakula Mine restarted operations; Peru's Condor - Teck copper project got environmental approval; Ivanhoe Mines revised its production target for Kamoa - Kakula [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20460, and the night - session closing price was 20585. The previous closing price of LME Aluminum 3M was 2545. The previous closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2860, and the night - session closing price was 2896 [14]. - **Comprehensive News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, and alumina trend intensity is 0 [16]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 21905, up 0.30%, and the previous closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2660, up 1.28% [17]. - **News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US industrial output declined for the second time in three months [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [17]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16860, down 0.71%, and the previous closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2006.5, up 0.70% [19]. - **News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US industrial output declined for the second time in three months [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [20]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 263,730, down 0.29%, and the previous closing price of LME Tin 3M was 32,250, down 0.92% [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's remarks on Iran; Israeli military's actions; US economic data; US tariff disputes; US stablecoin bill; Bank of Japan's monetary policy [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 118,570, and the previous closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,480 [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance; the Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [30].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate has secured enough votes to pass the stablecoin legislation, with voting still ongoing [1] Group 1 - The stablecoin bill aims to provide a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged to traditional assets [1] - The legislation is expected to enhance consumer protection and promote innovation in the digital currency space [1] - The outcome of the vote could significantly impact the future of digital currencies and the broader financial ecosystem in the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill, indicating a significant step towards regulatory clarity in the cryptocurrency market [1] Group 1 - The GENIUS stablecoin bill aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States [1] - This legislation is expected to address concerns regarding the stability and security of stablecoins, which are crucial for the broader adoption of cryptocurrencies [1] - The upcoming vote reflects the increasing attention from lawmakers on the cryptocurrency sector and its implications for the financial system [1]

Group 1 - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain value stability by pegging their price to external assets such as fiat currencies or commodities, addressing the volatility issues of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [1][5] - The essence of stablecoins is the tokenization of real-world fiat currencies or assets on the blockchain, representing a fusion of traditional financial assets and blockchain technology [1][5] - The recent introduction of stablecoin regulatory frameworks in the US and Hong Kong signifies a formal acceptance by regulators, providing new investment opportunities and revitalizing the stablecoin market [5][6] Group 2 - Stablecoins can be categorized into fiat-collateralized, crypto-asset/collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins currently dominating the market [5][6] - The primary uses of stablecoins include serving as a trading medium in the crypto market, core assets in decentralized finance, new financial infrastructure, and tools for asset allocation and wealth preservation [6][9] - The regulatory frameworks in the US, Hong Kong, and the EU share common principles such as fiat currency anchoring, licensed issuance management, and customer protection, while also having unique characteristics [6][7] Group 3 - The US stablecoin legislation aims to maintain the dollar's dominance in the digital economy, positioning dollar stablecoins as global digital payment tools [9] - Hong Kong's stablecoin framework seeks to enhance its status as an international financial center, potentially leading to the issuance of offshore RMB stablecoins to promote the internationalization of the RMB [9] - The growth of the stablecoin market is expected to significantly benefit decentralized application service providers and their native tokens, as stablecoins play a crucial role in decentralized finance [9][10]

本周以来，A股市场持续回暖，热点不断。 6月5日盘后龙虎榜显示，在近期黄金珠宝、数字货币、新消费等热门概念股走热背后，机构是重要资金力量。 机构激烈博弈黄金珠宝板块 本周以来，黄金珠宝类公司交易热度火爆，龙虎榜显示，机构激烈参与该板块相关热门股博弈，一些股票被机 构大额净买入。 珠宝首饰企业潮宏基（002345.SZ）本周多次登上龙虎榜，该公司在本周二、周三连续两个涨停后，于6月5日 （周四）跌停。近几日龙虎榜显示，机构仍在持续买入潮宏基。潮宏基由于今年珠宝消费走热而成为大牛股， 今年以来股价涨幅高达169%。 潮宏基6月5日龙虎榜显示，当日买入前五席位中有3席为机构，卖出前五中有1席为机构，机构合计买入1.13亿 元，合计卖出0.34亿元。因此，当日机构净买入额为0.79亿元，呈现逆势买入趋势。此外，潮宏基6月4日龙虎 榜数据显示，近三个交易日（5月30日至6月4日），潮宏基买入及卖出前五席位中各出现3家机构，机构合计买 入1.73亿元，卖出1.18亿元。 萃华珠宝（002731.SZ）也在本周被机构大力买入。萃华珠宝在6月5日因连续三个交易日内，涨幅偏离值累计 达到20%而登上龙虎榜。龙虎榜数据显示，本周 ...