Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year and into the next two years [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, with a forecast of an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end and 25 basis points each year for the next two years [1][2] - The dot plot indicates a target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [1] - The Federal Reserve's approach is characterized as risk management, focusing on controlling employment market downturn risks [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Citic Securities expects further rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December, suggesting that the market may see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern in bond markets and a "catch-up" in stock markets [1] - CICC notes that while another rate cut is likely in October, the threshold for future cuts will become increasingly high due to rising inflation concerns [2] - Xiangcai Securities highlights that significantly revised employment data is a major driver for the recent rate cut, indicating a shift from economic slowdown to a more severe employment downturn [3]

备受关注的点阵图显示，年内美联储有望降息两次25个基点，明年再降息25个基点。 当地时间17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预 期。 这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。备受关注的点阵图显示，年内美联 储有望降息两次25个基点，明年再降息25个基点。 市场方面，在美联储宣布决定后，美国股市收盘涨跌互现。美元指数一度下跌0.4%，但在鲍威尔的新 闻发布会后，该指数抹去跌幅并上涨0.3%。 中金公司：预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但降息门槛将越来越高 中金公司表示，此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降息存在较大分歧。往前看，由 于就业数据过于疲软，预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越 高，货币宽松空间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但 无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞胀"困境。 湘财证券：预计未来美联储降息可能会更加激进 中信证券：预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态，黄金仍有不错表现 中信证券表示，等到新任美联 ...

【导读】香港金管局将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.50% 中国基金报记者 李智 9 月 18 日，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局）将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.50% 。 香港金管局宣布降息 25 个基点 9 月 18 日，香港金管局将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.50% ，即时生效。 香港金管局表示，基本利率是用作计算经贴现窗进行回购交易时适用的贴现率的基础利率。 目前基本利率定于当前的美国联邦基金利率目标区间的下限加 50 基点，或隔夜及 1 个月香 港银行同业拆息的 5 天移动平均数的平均值，以较高者为准。 因应美国于 9 月 17 日（美国时间）调低联邦基金利率的目标区间 25 基点，当前的美国联 邦基金利率目标区间的下限加 50 基点是 4.5% ，而隔夜及 1 个月香港银行同业拆息的 5 天 移动平均数的平均值是 2.94% ，所以根据预设公式，基本利率设定于 4.5% 。 值得注意的是，这也是香港金管局今年以来首次降息。 | | 期末數字 | | | | | (年率) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Liq ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Financial News reports that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September aligns with market expectations, indicating a measured response to economic concerns while maintaining restraint [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points was anticipated by the market, but the expected 50 basis point cut did not materialize, reflecting significant divisions among policymakers regarding future rate cuts [1] Economic Outlook - Looking ahead, due to weak employment data, the Federal Reserve is expected to consider another rate cut in October. However, rising inflation will likely increase the threshold for further cuts, limiting the scope for monetary easing [1] Economic Challenges - The current issues facing the U.S. economy are not due to insufficient demand but rather rising costs. Excessive monetary easing may not resolve employment challenges and could exacerbate inflation, potentially leading the economy into a "stagflation-like" scenario [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September aligns with market expectations, indicating a measured response to economic concerns while maintaining restraint [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The anticipated 50 basis point cut did not materialize, reflecting significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future rate cuts [1] - A further rate cut is expected in October due to weak employment data, but subsequent cuts may face higher thresholds due to rising inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The current issue in the U.S. economy is not insufficient demand but rising costs, suggesting that excessive monetary easing may exacerbate inflation rather than resolve employment issues [1] - The economy may risk entering a "stagflation-like" scenario if inflation continues to rise alongside economic challenges [1]

中金研究 美联储9月降息25个基点，符合市场预期。美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降 息存在较大分歧。往前看，由于就业数据过于疲软，我们预计联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越高，货币宽松空 间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞 胀"困境。 点击小程序查看报告原文 本次会议前，市场对于美联储降息有很高期待，由于劳动力市场疲软，投资者普遍认为美联储现在必须出手，以防止就业数据进一步下滑。 我们认为美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。 首先，从政策立场看，美联储如期降息，并将就业放缓作为降息的理由。货币政策声明称， 决策者认为"就业方面的下行风险有所上升"，尽管他们也认为"通胀水平有所回升，且依然偏高"[1]。换句话说，就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的顾 虑，成为政策调整的直接推动力。 然而，市场此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现。 从投票结果来看[2]，本周二刚刚就任理事的米兰投下了反对票，因其主张应降息50个基点，这符合市场 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nine months, aimed at addressing signs of economic slowdown rather than a full-blown crisis [1][2] - The current economic context is characterized by "stagflation," with slowing growth and relatively high inflation, as indicated by a core PCE year-on-year growth of 2.86% and a core CPI growth of 3.2% [2] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The rate cut is anticipated to have a threefold positive impact on Chinese assets, including expanded monetary policy space, stabilization and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and accelerated capital reallocation [2][5] - The Chinese capital market is expected to see a wave of foreign capital inflow, benefiting from the easing of external monetary policy constraints [5] Group 3: Opportunities in A-shares and H-shares - In the A-share market, three sectors are identified as clear beneficiaries: technology growth sectors (TMT, semiconductors, AI), large financial sectors (banks, brokerages, insurance), and high-dividend stocks (electricity, oil, state-owned enterprises) [2][10] - The H-share market is more sensitive to external liquidity, with significant foreign capital allocation towards software, services, and technology hardware sectors, driven by advancements in AI technologies [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry Benefits - The automotive industry is poised to benefit from both policy and funding advantages, with a target of achieving approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 3% [6] - The expected sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to reach around 15.5 million, reflecting a growth of approximately 20% [6] - The rate cut will lower financing costs for automakers, enhance consumer confidence, and support overall consumption, particularly in the automotive sector [7][8] Group 5: Commodity and Bond Market Effects - The rate cut is expected to positively influence the commodity and bond markets, with industrial metals like copper and aluminum anticipated to break upward, and gold prices receiving short-term support [9] - The bond market is likely to see a clear downward trend in interest rates, enhancing the investment value of government and interest rate bonds [9] Group 6: Asset Allocation Strategy - Experts recommend prioritizing equity assets in the current environment, particularly in technology growth, high-dividend blue chips, and large financial sectors, while suggesting moderate allocation to bond assets [10] - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential overvaluation in certain sectors due to pre-existing rate cut expectations [10]

在9月17日FOMC会议前，多家国际投行更新了对美联储政策的预测： 1.瑞银：预计美联储将自9月起连 续四次降息，总幅度100个基点，理由是通胀接近目标且劳动力市场风险加大。 2.高盛：预计今年9月、 10月、12月连续三次降息25个基点，2025年再降两次，将利率降至3%–3.25%；若劳动力市场恶化加 速，下次会议不排除降息50个基点。高盛强调，就业市场疲软已成为政策重心，通胀不再是阻碍降息的 主因。 3.摩根士丹利：预计今年余下的三次会议均将降息25个基点，较此前预测增加了10月一次降息。 4.巴克莱：预计9月、10月、12月均降息25个基点，并在2026和2027年各再降一次。 5.摩根大通：认 为"鸽派降息25个基点"概率最高（47.5%），标普500或立即上涨1%；若伴随鹰派言论，美股或持平/小 跌；维持不变概率仅4%，或致标普500跌至6450点；50基点降息概率7.5%，市场或双向波动。摩根大通 资管策略师David Kelly警告，当前市场泡沫化，宽松或适得其反。 6. 德意志银行：首席经济学家卢泽 蒂称，美联储将分三次降息，每次25个基点；在本次FOMC会议上，可能会发生自1988年以来首 ...

Group 1 - The current market has a strong expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 92% probability according to CME FedWatch [1] - The upcoming rate cut is categorized as a preventive measure rather than a crisis response, which historically has different impacts on the stock market [1][8] - Preventive rate cuts can lower corporate financing costs, stimulate mergers and acquisitions, and reduce market risk premiums, potentially boosting stock market valuations [2][3] Group 2 - Historical examples show that preventive rate cuts in 1995-1996 and 1998 led to significant stock market recoveries, with the Nasdaq rising 39.6% in 1995 and 28.2% in 1996 [3] - In contrast, crisis-driven rate cuts often fail to prevent stock market declines due to existing economic downturns and investor panic, as seen during the 2001 and 2007 crises [6][7] - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with inflation pressures complicating the effectiveness of preventive rate cuts [9][10] Group 3 - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite a cumulative 100 basis point cut [10] - The potential for a second phase of rate cuts remains uncertain, with two possible strategies: a cautious approach to balance economic stimulation and inflation control, or an aggressive approach that could lead to short-term market boosts but long-term instability [14][15] - The outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market is more about asset reallocation rather than a mass exodus, with significant investments still directed towards U.S. bonds and money markets [16][19] Group 4 - Global stock markets, particularly in China and Europe, are attracting some capital, but the overall scale of this shift remains limited and reflects structural opportunities rather than a definitive trend [17][20] - If the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate cut strategy, it could lead to a temporary boost in global markets, but risks of a rapid outflow of capital could emerge if inflation pressures force a tightening of monetary policy [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under the background of loose trading. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 82,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if the cost support moves down and demand does not improve significantly, prices still have downward pressure. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, aluminum prices still face the risk of rising and then falling [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, it is expected that the spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Against the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, while zinc shows relatively weak performance due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, zinc prices may rise driven by the macro - economy, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply side remains tight, and combined with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The subsequent operation range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000. If the supply recovers smoothly, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is strong, the cost has support, there is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. In the medium term, the loose supply restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment improves, raw material prices are firm, and cost support is strengthened, and the inventory pressure eases. However, the current peak - season demand has not been effectively realized, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals maintain a tight balance. Policy window period boosts macro - expectations, and strong demand provides support for prices. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 81,120 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 2,970 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - In August, electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [4]. - In August, the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - The import loss is 3,294 yuan/ton, down 9.09 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9]. - LME 0 - 3 premium is - 132.00 US dollars/ton, down 277.36% [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.49% [11]. - The futures import loss is - 1,507 yuan/ton, up 18.32% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month [11]. - Refined nickel imports in August were 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The futures - spot price difference is 400 yuan/ton, up 14.29% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [13]. - In August, stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [14]. - In July, lithium carbonate imports were 13,845 tons, down 21.77% month - on - month [14].