在9月17日FOMC会议前，多家国际投行更新了对美联储政策的预测： 1.瑞银：预计美联储将自9月起连 续四次降息，总幅度100个基点，理由是通胀接近目标且劳动力市场风险加大。 2.高盛：预计今年9月、 10月、12月连续三次降息25个基点，2025年再降两次，将利率降至3%–3.25%；若劳动力市场恶化加 速，下次会议不排除降息50个基点。高盛强调，就业市场疲软已成为政策重心，通胀不再是阻碍降息的 主因。 3.摩根士丹利：预计今年余下的三次会议均将降息25个基点，较此前预测增加了10月一次降息。 4.巴克莱：预计9月、10月、12月均降息25个基点，并在2026和2027年各再降一次。 5.摩根大通：认 为"鸽派降息25个基点"概率最高（47.5%），标普500或立即上涨1%；若伴随鹰派言论，美股或持平/小 跌；维持不变概率仅4%，或致标普500跌至6450点；50基点降息概率7.5%，市场或双向波动。摩根大通 资管策略师David Kelly警告，当前市场泡沫化，宽松或适得其反。 6. 德意志银行：首席经济学家卢泽 蒂称，美联储将分三次降息，每次25个基点；在本次FOMC会议上，可能会发生自1988年以来首 ...

当前，市场对于9月美联储降息预期强烈。CME"美联储观察"最新预测数据显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为92%，降息50个基点的概率为8%。美联 储议息会议召开在即，一旦宣布重启降息，对美国股市是利是弊？美股会迎来大幅提振吗，还是会加快推动资金流向中国、欧洲等全球其他股市？ 本轮预防式降息对美股提振有限。 不同类型的降息对美股影响各不相同 首先需要讨论和厘清的是，美联储即将启动的降息属于何种性质。一般来说，美联储降息可分为预防式降息和纾困式降息两类。 预防式降息是指在经济出现局部放缓迹象时，央行为预防潜在的经济金融风险爆发而前瞻实施的相对温和的降息举措，在一定程度上起到未雨绸缪的作用。 纾困式降息是指在经济已处于严重的衰退状态，或遭遇到突如其来的重大冲击时，央行采取连续、大幅的降息动作，以缓解经济困境。如2020年为应对疫情 采取的大幅降息的"量化宽松"政策。上世纪90年代以来，美联储经历了6轮比较明显的降息周期，包括两轮预防式降息和三轮纾困式降息，以及一轮由预防 式降息和纾困式降息叠加的混合式降息。 回顾历史不难发现，预防式降息和纾困式降息因政策环境、政策力度等不同，对美国股市的影响存在明显差异。 从总 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under the background of loose trading. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 82,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if the cost support moves down and demand does not improve significantly, prices still have downward pressure. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, aluminum prices still face the risk of rising and then falling [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, it is expected that the spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Against the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, while zinc shows relatively weak performance due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, zinc prices may rise driven by the macro - economy, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply side remains tight, and combined with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The subsequent operation range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000. If the supply recovers smoothly, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is strong, the cost has support, there is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. In the medium term, the loose supply restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment improves, raw material prices are firm, and cost support is strengthened, and the inventory pressure eases. However, the current peak - season demand has not been effectively realized, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals maintain a tight balance. Policy window period boosts macro - expectations, and strong demand provides support for prices. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 81,120 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 2,970 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - In August, electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [4]. - In August, the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - The import loss is 3,294 yuan/ton, down 9.09 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9]. - LME 0 - 3 premium is - 132.00 US dollars/ton, down 277.36% [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.49% [11]. - The futures import loss is - 1,507 yuan/ton, up 18.32% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month [11]. - Refined nickel imports in August were 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The futures - spot price difference is 400 yuan/ton, up 14.29% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [13]. - In August, stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [14]. - In July, lithium carbonate imports were 13,845 tons, down 21.77% month - on - month [14].

Group 1 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July and August significantly below expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [5][6] - Inflation data remains moderate, with the U.S. CPI growth rate at 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation are manageable [5][6] - Market expectations are heavily leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 96.1% probability assigned to this outcome [2][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that a weaker dollar is likely to continue, which may lead to a reallocation of global funds and support the performance of gold [8][10] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by "stagflation-like" tendencies, with declining consumer confidence and investment willingness [9] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a favorable environment for gold, with prices already showing a significant increase of nearly 40% year-to-date [10][11] Group 3 - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the U.S. stock market is expected to vary, with potential short-term liquidity injections but possible long-term volatility [12][13] - Historical patterns suggest that U.S. stocks may not experience significant downward adjustments during preventive rate cuts, especially in the absence of other negative factors [13] - The Chinese stock market may benefit from the weaker dollar and a restructuring of global monetary order, with small-cap stocks in sectors like biotechnology and AI gaining attention [14][15]

连平、刘涛（连平系广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长） 当前，市场对于9月美联储降息预期强烈。CME"美联储观察"最新预测数据显示，美联储9月降息25个 基点的概率为92%，降息50个基点的概率为8%。9月16-17日，美联储议息会议召开在即，一旦宣布重启 降息，对美国股市将是利是弊？美股会迎来大幅提振吗？还是会加快推动资金流向中国、欧洲等全球其 他股市？这些问题引起了市场的广泛关注。 不同类型的降息对美股影响各不相同 首先需要讨论和厘清的是，美联储即将启动的降息属何种性质。一般来说，美联储降息可分为预防式降 息和纾困式降息两类。预防式降息是指在经济出现局部放缓迹象时，央行为预防潜在的经济金融风险爆 发而前瞻实施的相对温和的降息举措，在一定程度上起到未雨绸缪的作用。纾困式降息则是指在经济已 处于严重的衰退状态，或遭遇到突如其来的重大冲击时，央行采取连续、大幅的降息动作，以缓解经济 困境。如2020年为应对疫情采取的大幅降息的"量化宽松"政策。上世纪90年代以来，美联储经历了6轮 比较明显的降息周期，包括2轮预防式降息和3轮纾困式降息，以及1轮由预防式降息和纾困式降息叠加 的混合式 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are oscillating and differentiating, with the new - energy sector being structurally strong; treasury bond futures are affected by weak fundamentals and strong risk preferences; precious metals are rising due to concerns about the Fed's independence; and container shipping futures are expected to decline. In the commodity futures market, different metal and agricultural product futures have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, and corresponding investment suggestions are given based on these [2][5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed oscillating differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose. The new - energy sector was hot, and financial stocks adjusted. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts declined. The base difference of the 09 contracts is rapidly repairing. The market is affected by domestic economic data and overseas news. The operation suggestion is to consider the option double - buying strategy if the volatility continues to decline [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose at the end of the session. The weak economic data in August is favorable for the bond market, but the strong risk preference suppresses long - term bonds. The operation suggestion is to wait and see, pay attention to the capital situation and whether incremental credit - easing policies are introduced [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose. Before the FOMC meeting, Trump's call for a sharp interest - rate cut and the possible confirmation of a cabinet member as a voting member have increased concerns about the Fed's independence and credibility, weakening the US dollar and boosting the prices of precious metals. The future outlook is that the Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and the political turmoil in Europe and the US has increased the demand for precious metals as a hedge [8][9][10]. Container Shipping (European Lines) - The spot prices of container shipping continue to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the Shanghai - Europe freight rate have decreased. The global container capacity has increased year - on - year. The futures price fell, and the spot price has a downward impact on the futures. It is expected that the spot will continue to decline slowly, and the futures price will also decline. The operation suggestion is to short the 10 - contract unilaterally or conduct a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has risen, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 9 - month interest - rate cut is almost certain, which boosts copper prices in the short term. The fundamental situation is "weak reality + stable expectation". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 79500 - 82000 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply pattern is gradually loose. The futures price shows a low - level oscillating trend, presenting a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton, and short positions can be considered in the medium term if the cost support weakens [17][18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price has declined. The supply has increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate around the peak - season expectation and the actual consumption fulfillment. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20600 - 21400 yuan/ton [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in September, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton, and a spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price is stable. The supply of zinc ore is loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase. The demand is in the peak season, but the domestic and overseas markets are differentiated. The price is expected to oscillate, and the operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [25][26][29]. - **Tin**: The spot price has declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The spot price has risen slightly. The macro - environment is improving, and the supply of refined nickel is at a relatively high level. The demand is stable in some areas and weak in others. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price has risen. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the peak - season expectation but has not been significantly released. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 12800 - 13400 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price is stable. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is optimistic. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [40][41][43]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The spot price has risen. The cost is affected by factors such as coking coal and iron ore. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a seasonal decline. The price is expected to rise, and the pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3350 yuan/ton and 3500 yuan/ton respectively [44][46][47]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of slight change. The price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, while the spot price is oscillating weakly. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of medium - level decline. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [51][52][53]. - **Coke**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the second - round price cut by steel mills has been implemented. The supply is increasing, and the demand has support. The inventory is in a state of medium - level increase. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [54][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic soybean meal spot price has declined. The US soybean supply is strong and the demand is weak. The Brazilian soybean premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost. The domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level. The price of the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton [58][59][61]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. The breeding - end slaughter has increased, and the demand is slowly recovering. The supply recovery pattern is clear, and the price is expected to continue to bottom - out [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. The market for each metal is influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical events. The investment opportunities and risks vary among different metals, and specific trading strategies are proposed accordingly [3][8][12]. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed up 0.26% at $3643.06 per ounce, and London silver closed up 1.58% at $42.16 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 97.68, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.027%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 7.1246 [3]. - **Important News**: US inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released, and there were Trump administration dynamics and high probabilities of Fed rate cuts [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US labor market's vulnerability and inflation data have strengthened the market's expectation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reducing positions on rallies or taking profits near the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2510 contract closed at 80810 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. LME copper closed at $10064.5 per ton, up 0.07%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.39 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 653 tons to 31.04 million tons [8]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, and Grasberg copper mine had an accident [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US inflation and labor market data, along with supply disruptions and changes in inventory, have affected the copper market. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, pay attention to the support at $10000 per ton; conduct inter - market positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2511 contract fell 11 yuan to 2897 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [12]. - **Important News**: There were delays in Indian bauxite mining projects, changes in inventory, and cost and profit data [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus in the alumina market is becoming more obvious, with prices falling both at home and abroad. However, beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to be weak; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 to 20580 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Policy changes affected the regenerative aluminum industry, and there were cost and inventory data [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum, while the downstream demand is increasing. The market supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be stable and strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 21075 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [24]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, changes in inventory, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has strengthened, and the supply - demand shortage pattern supports the aluminum price [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term; conduct AL10 - 12 positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose 1.76% to $2956 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2510 rose 0.09% to 22300 yuan per ton [31]. - **Important News**: There were changes in zinc ore processing fees [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the consumption is flat. Overseas, LME is in a de - stocking phase, which supports the LME zinc price [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may be strong in the short - term; consider shorting on rallies in the medium - long term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32][33]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 1.18% to $2019 per ton, and SHFE lead 2510 rose 1.03% to 17140 yuan per ton [35]. - **Important News**: The operating rate of recycled lead smelters decreased [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction in domestic recycled lead supply and the pre - holiday stocking demand may push up the lead price, but beware of the impact of lead imports [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose $160 to $15380 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 820 to 122010 yuan per ton [38]. - **Important News**: There were no major impacts on nickel mining operations in Indonesia, and there were new investment talks for nickel smelting projects [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is optimistic about the macro - environment, but the supply increase in the peak season and the increase in LME inventory put pressure on the price [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The SS2511 contract rose 15 to 12945 yuan per ton [43]. - **Important News**: Stainless steel enterprises are undergoing low - carbon emission transformation, and there are new global green trade rules [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's possible rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the approaching consumption peak season support the price [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract closed at 8745 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan per ton [47]. - **Important News**: There were changes in coal prices and industrial silicon production and inventory [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will shift to a slight surplus, and the price may decline slightly but with limited amplitude [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term; consider going long after a sufficient decline; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [51]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided. - **Important News**: The cost and demand in the silicon wafer segment increased, and there were price increases [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but in the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term; buy on dips in the long - term; conduct reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts; hold out - of - the - money put options [55]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2511 contract rose 500 to 71160 yuan per ton, and spot prices fell [57]. - **Important News**: There were policies to promote automobile consumption and a new lithium carbonate project in Argentina [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new automobile industry policy may boost the demand for lithium carbonate, but the price lacks strong driving forces [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [61][62]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin closed at 274160 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices rose, but the trading volume was low [62][63]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks and Peruvian tin export data [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand improvement is slow. The inventory has increased [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term; wait and see for options [64].

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，外盘贵金属在历史高位附近窄幅波动，伦敦金当前 交投于 3641 美元附近；伦敦银当前交投于 42.2 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最 终收涨 0.1%，报 831.6 元/克；沪银主力合约最终收涨 0.88%，报 10017 元/千 克。 2.美元指数:美元指数低位盘整，当前交投于 97.56 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率小幅反弹，当前交投于 4.07%附近。 1.美国宏观：①美国 9 月一年期通胀率预期初值 4.8%，预期 4.7%，前值 4.80%。②美国 9 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 55.4，预期 58，前值 58.2。 2. ...

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with Dogecoin down 5.24%, Ripple down 3.34%, Ethereum down 1.41%, and Bitcoin down 0.36% as of September 14 [1] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 120,000 traders in the virtual currency market faced liquidation [2] - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a monetary policy meeting from September 16 to 17, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8% probability of a 50 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - Following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index declined, and U.S. stocks reached new highs [3] - The rise in initial jobless claims to a nearly four-year high has shifted the Federal Reserve's focus towards employment, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts [3] - Despite the consensus on three rate cuts by the end of the year, there are concerns about the potential for an unexpected rebound in inflation due to supply-side factors, which could limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy [3][4] Group 3 - The future performance of the U.S. financial markets post-rate cut will largely depend on the economic outlook; a soft landing could support stock market gains, while a rapid deterioration in the economy could lead to significant market adjustments [4]

尽管美国8月CPI基本符合预期，但初请失业金数据意外爆冷。美国劳工统计局9月11日公布的数据显 示，截至9月6日当周，初请失业金人数增加2.7万人至26.3万人，为2021年10月以来最高，高于前值23.6 万人和预期值23.5万人。 在CPI和初请失业金数据公布后，10年期美债收益率跌破4%大关，美元指数走低，美股再创新高。 （原标题：深夜12万人爆仓 加密货币集体下跌） 9月14日晚间，比特币、以太币等加密货币集体跳水下跌。截至22:19，狗狗币下跌5.24%，瑞波币下跌 3.34%，以太币下跌1.41%，比特币下跌0.36%。 Coinglass网站数据显示，过去24小时内，虚拟货币共有超12万人爆仓。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，美联储将于当地时间9月16日至17日召开货币政策会议，9月18日，美联储 将公布利率决议。CME"美联储观察"的数据显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为92%，降息50个基 点的概率为8%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月11日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国8月消费者价格指数 （CPI）环比增长0.4%，经季节性调整前同比增长2.9%。当月，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后 ...