贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上周美国众议院以微弱优势通 过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元，对美国债务问题的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经 济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显的滞胀态势，短期经济数据的表现影 响有限。美联储难有快速动作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待 关税冲突降温的阶段，而美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍 然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联储重新QE等动作，都会提供 反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 铜 ： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 首席点评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in shipping rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, while highlighting the ongoing economic adjustments and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and economic data reflecting potential stagflation [2][4][16]. - President Trump's decision to extend the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU has alleviated some market concerns, leading to temporary price increases in gold [2][4][16]. - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill that is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about U.S. debt levels [2][4][16]. Group 2: Copper - Domestic demand for copper remains stable, driven by increased investments in power grids and growth in home appliance production [17]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to low processing fees and copper prices, with attention on U.S. tariff negotiations and currency exchange rates [17]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The shipping index for Europe has shown a decline, with the latest SCFIS European line index at 1247.05 points, down 1.4% [30]. - The shipping market is optimistic about potential price increases in June, with average container prices rising to around $2400, reflecting a $600-$700 increase from the end of May [30]. - The overall shipping capacity is expected to remain stable, but the market anticipates a cooling period after initial price increases, leading to a more balanced outlook [30].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions will be a critical variable for market dynamics, as strong demand could lower yields and support the dollar, while weak demand may raise concerns about U.S. debt and weaken the dollar [1] Auction Details - The U.S. is scheduled to auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday, and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday [1] - Strong demand in these auctions could alleviate market anxiety, potentially leading to a decline in Treasury yields and an increase in the dollar's value [1] Market Implications - If demand is weak, particularly from foreign institutions, it could reignite concerns regarding U.S. debt issues, resulting in rising yields and a weakening dollar [1]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's tax proposal, which has passed the House but faces challenges in the Senate due to rising U.S. debt and bond market concerns [1][9][10] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, indicating investor anxiety about the fiscal situation, which could lead to higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown [1][2][8] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating, highlighting that the country's economic strength is no longer sufficient to offset declining fiscal indicators, with debt projected to rise to 134% of GDP in the next decade [1][4][7] Group 2 - The tax bill includes new tax benefits for key political groups, but Republican senators are signaling a need for spending cuts to mitigate fiscal pain [1][10] - The demand for 20-year bonds was weak during a recent auction, reflecting growing investor concerns about U.S. fiscal health [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by 2029, U.S. debt will exceed 106% of GDP, marking a historical high [4][7] Group 3 - Republican leaders are under pressure to achieve a legislative victory before the midterm elections, with the tax bill seen as crucial for maintaining support [9][10] - The potential for increased interest payments due to rising yields could exacerbate the government's fiscal challenges [2][3] - The proposed increase in state and local tax deduction limits from $10,000 to $40,000 is a key negotiation point among Republicans [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a significant tax reform bill, which could potentially increase the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising the current debt level of $36.2 trillion [1] - The stock market showed mixed results following the tax reform news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 41,859.09, down 1.35 points, and the S&P 500 index down 2.60 points to 5,842.01, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 53.09 points to 18,925.74 [1] - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, 8 sectors declined, with utilities and healthcare leading the losses at 1.41% and 0.76%, respectively, while consumer discretionary and communication services were the best performers, rising by 0.56% and 0.32% [1] Group 2 - Short-term economic benefits from the tax reform are anticipated, including GDP growth and increased spending, particularly in defense, which could stimulate the economy [2] - Long-term concerns regarding the tax reform include exacerbating the fiscal deficit, leading to rising yields and declining bond attractiveness, as noted by analysts [2] - The bond market showed some relief after Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, with the 30-year Treasury yield falling below 5.1% and the 10-year benchmark yield around 4.55% [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is considering interest rate cuts if the Trump administration's tariff policies are less concerning than previously thought, with recent data indicating a rebound in U.S. business activity [3] - The preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI for May rose to 52.1 from 50.6 in April, indicating moderate economic expansion, although the labor market shows signs of weakness with rising unemployment claims [3] - Market expectations suggest at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, as investors monitor economic trends and fiscal policy developments [3]

新华财经北京5月22日电作为穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后的首场长债发行，美国财政部周三（5月21 日）发行的160亿美元20年期国债受到市场高度关注。由于发行结果不佳，引发美国长期限国债收益率 全面上涨超过11BP。 其中，10年期美债收益率上涨11BP至4.60%，创逾三个月新高。此前在5%关口附近徘徊的20年期和30 年期美债收益率分别上涨13BP和12BP，至5.12%和5.09%，均为2023年11月以来新高。期限在10年以下 的美债收益率也普遍上涨5-10BP。 发行结果显示，本次招标的20年期美债中标利率为5.047%，较4月的4.810%高出24BP，一举站上5%大 关，较预发行利率5.035%高出约1.2BP，是去年12月以来的最大尾部利差；投标倍数为2.46，低于4月的 2.63，为2月以来最低。 衡量海外需求的间接认购比例为69.02%，低于上月的70.7%，但仍高于67.2%的近期均值。衡量美国国 内需求的直接认购比例为14.1%，高于上月的12.3%。一级交易商获配比例为16.9%，稍低于上月的 17.0%。 结果公布后，盘中本就处在涨势的美债收益率出现一轮显著拉升；美股急挫，三大股指跌 ...

"现在并不是真正鼓舞人心的市场，我认为市场肯定处于观望状态，因此这可能会在短期内限制上涨空 间。" 5月21日（周三），伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜走高，因担心美国债务水平上升的投资者在美元走弱的 情况下寻找硬资产。 伦敦时间5月21日17:00(北京时间5月22日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨14美元或0.15%，收报每吨 9,533.50美元。 | | | 5月21日LE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | | 涨跌幅 涨跌 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,533.50 | 1 | +14.00 1+0.15% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.471.50 | | 0.00 - 0.00% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,693.00 | → | -17.50 -0.65% | | 三个月期铅 | 1.974.00 | ﺑــ | -6.50 -0.33% | | 三个月期镍 | 15,602.00 | 1 | +84.00 1+0.54% | | 三个月期锡 | 32,854.00 | → | -229.00 J -0.69% | 国 ...

相关链接 期货热点追踪 铜价在美元走弱和美国债务问题的背景下小幅上涨，分析师表示，如果宏观经济短期内没有出现重大的 负面意外，铜价的目标是…… ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns among bond investors regarding the U.S. government's willingness to make tough decisions to balance its budget, indicating a potential issue with national debt [1] Group 1 - Matthew Amis, the investment director at Aberdeen, highlights that the market is questioning whether the U.S. government is prepared to undertake difficult measures for budget balancing [1] - The article notes that the easing of trade tensions means tariffs will not significantly boost revenue, which could impact the government's financial strategy [1] - Recent developments regarding Trump's tax legislation suggest that U.S. debt is trending in a direction that may not align with market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major investment firms are shifting their focus towards emerging market stocks, anticipating a favorable turn in market conditions for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Firms' Perspectives - Morgan Stanley, AQR Capital Management, Bank of America, and Franklin Templeton are betting on emerging markets as the next investment opportunity [1]. - Bank of America's Michael Hartnett describes emerging markets as the "next bull market" [3]. - AQR predicts that emerging market stocks will yield an annual return of nearly 6% in local currency over the next 5 to 10 years, surpassing the 4% expected return from U.S. stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 index has remained flat year-to-date, while emerging market indices have risen by 10%, suggesting a potential end to a 15-year period of underperformance for these markets [3]. - Over the past 15 years, U.S. stocks have surged over 400%, while emerging market stocks have only increased by 7% [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Shifts - Factors such as trade wars, the dollar's challenges, S&P volatility, and doubts about U.S. Treasury bonds' safe-haven status are prompting investors to look beyond the U.S. [3]. - Moody's recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over rising debt and deficits, adding pressure to U.S. equities [3]. - Franklin Templeton's Christy Tan warns of dollar depreciation risks and suggests that the "American exceptionalism" narrative may be temporarily over, viewing emerging market bonds as alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Morgan Stanley's Jitania Kandhari is focusing on stocks in banking, electrification, healthcare, and defense sectors within emerging markets [4]. - AQR's Chris Doheny is targeting smaller market capitalization companies in emerging markets that are expected to perform well in the medium to long term [4]. Group 5: Capital Flows and Economic Conditions - As of the week ending May 9, inflows into U.S.-listed emerging market and specific country ETFs reached $1.84 billion, more than double the previous week [4]. - Despite the positive outlook, inherent characteristics of emerging markets, such as political instability and local crises, may hinder this year's growth [4]. - Franklin Templeton's Tan highlights that major emerging markets have strong fundamentals, low external debt, and favorable debt-to-GDP ratios, making them attractive [4].