Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices, with a record single-day decline of nearly 7%, raises concerns among ordinary investors about future price movements and the need for a long-term investment strategy [2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices recently fell from nearly $4,400 per ounce to a low of $4,082 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since 2013 [2]. - The total value of gold held by private and official investors is approximately $9.4 trillion, while the public market size of U.S. Treasury bonds is around $29 trillion, indicating potential upward pressure on gold prices due to declining confidence in the dollar [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors should adopt a long-term perspective when investing in gold, focusing on future trends rather than short-term fluctuations [2][5]. - A positive mindset is crucial for gold investors, as emotional reactions to price changes can lead to missed profit opportunities [4]. - It is advisable to invest in gold with a reasonable amount of funds that do not affect normal household expenses, ensuring that investors are not forced to liquidate their positions prematurely [5].

Core Insights - The total U.S. national debt has reached approximately $37 trillion, but when including unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare, the actual figure exceeds $230 trillion [3][10][21] - Experts warn that the current debt levels are unsustainable, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion annually, leading to significant budget deficits [11][15][21] - The accumulation of debt over decades, primarily due to welfare and military spending, is identified as a major contributing factor to the current financial crisis [15][28] Group 1: Debt and Liabilities - The U.S. national debt is officially reported at around $37 trillion, but experts like Robert Kiyosaki argue that including unfunded obligations raises this figure to over $230 trillion [3][10] - Unfunded liabilities, particularly from Social Security and Medicare, are estimated to create a future shortfall of at least $100 trillion [5][21] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes since 2022 have led to escalating interest payments, which are projected to consume a significant portion of the federal budget [3][11] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Robert Kiyosaki, known for his financial insights, emphasizes the importance of hard assets like gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [9][19] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned that the current debt levels are unsustainable and could lead to a financial crisis within three years if not addressed [11][15] - Warren Buffett has echoed concerns about the unsustainability of U.S. deficits, suggesting that increasing productivity is essential to manage the growing debt burden [15][28] Group 3: Economic Implications - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is reported at 324%, indicating a severe imbalance that could lead to economic instability [21][22] - The potential for a debt crisis is compounded by external factors such as trade wars and tariffs, which disrupt supply chains and negatively impact the economy [18][22] - The ongoing discussions among BRICS nations about de-dollarization reflect a growing concern over the stability of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency [22][28]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged significantly, with London spot gold reaching a historic high of $4000 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 50%, the first time since the 1970s that such a rise has occurred in a single year [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Historically, only in the years 1973, 1974, and 1979 did London spot gold see annual increases exceeding 50%, with respective rises of 66.98%, 72.27%, and 126.55% [2]. - The current surge in gold prices reflects a level of distrust in the US dollar comparable to the 1980s, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment [2]. - The 1970s saw a dramatic change in the global monetary system, with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system leading to a rapid increase in gold prices, driven by both policy changes and economic crises [5]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The recent spike in gold prices can be attributed to various factors, including heightened global risk aversion due to potential US government shutdowns and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6]. - However, these factors are seen as short-term catalysts rather than the underlying drivers of a long-term bull market in gold, which has been ongoing since 2023 [6][7]. - The fundamental driver of the current gold price increase is a growing distrust in the US dollar, influenced by factors such as rising US debt and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - To capitalize on the gold bull market, a long-term holding strategy is recommended, with an emphasis on matching funding timelines to avoid forced selling during unfavorable market conditions [9]. - Increasing the allocation to physical gold can help mitigate the risks associated with frequent trading, with small-weight gold bars being a viable option for long-term investment [9]. - For leveraging investments, financing gold ETFs and investing in gold mining stocks are suggested as safer alternatives, as they can amplify returns without the high risks associated with options and futures [10].

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将降息25个基点，该决议获得美联储官员的一致同意（唯一一个投 反对票的是觉得降息不够多）；而这明显不会是今年的最后一次降息。中位数预测显示，2025年还将降 息两次。这对于黄金来说无疑是一个好消息，但也并非所有的投资者都认为，现在押注黄金还是个好主 意。 2012年2月，在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司发布的2021年度股东信中，著名投资家沃伦·巴菲特的一句话，至今 仍是黄金空头常常引用的"至理名言"： 如果你持有一盎司黄金直至永恒，到最后你仍然只有一盎司黄金。 这句话看似是废话，但在当时因为2011年9月份，金价达到了历史高点——1920美元，为了回应质疑他 为什么不买黄金的股东，巴菲特对黄金有了一段相当明确的论述。 在巴菲特看来，黄金作为非生产性的有形资产，不会产生任何收益和回报，也没有广泛的工业用途，其 回报驱动因素多变，长期上涨的潜力也不明确；另外，如果有朝一日所有社会都决定不再赋予黄金价 值，那它就会变得一文不值。 转眼间来到2025年，黄金大牛市已然确立，现货黄金价格在北京时间9月16日晚间一度突破3700美元。 按照这一公开信发布的2012年2月现货金价计算，迄今为止涨幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Stephen Milan, a close ally of Trump, to the Federal Reserve Board raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its future monetary policy direction [1][3][10]. Group 1: Appointment Implications - Milan's background as a supporter of Trump's policies and his involvement in trade agreements suggests he may prioritize a more accommodative monetary policy [3][5]. - If Milan is confirmed before the September meeting, he could influence discussions on interest rates and asset balance sheet reduction towards a more dovish stance [5][10]. - The historical context shows that political pressure on the Fed can lead to adverse long-term economic consequences, as seen during Nixon's presidency [8][11]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current U.S. benchmark interest rate is above 5%, and inflation, while reduced from a peak of over 9%, remains around 3% [5][6]. - A significant reduction in interest rates could risk reigniting inflation, which may not align with Trump's electoral priorities [6][11]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to exceed $1.7 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year, raising concerns about the implications of a more lenient monetary policy [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The potential for Milan to push for quicker rate cuts could lead to a reevaluation of global market pricing, impacting the dollar's value and U.S. Treasury yields [10][11]. - The perception of the Fed as a tool of the White House could undermine confidence in U.S. debt as a safe-haven asset, leading to possible market sell-offs [13][15]. - The ongoing politicization of the Fed may erode its credibility and independence, which are crucial for maintaining market stability [13][15].

据智通财经消息，2025年7月15日，美国财长贝森特的一席话，像一颗石子投入平静的湖面，瞬间激起千层浪。面对媒体镜头，他首次明确宣 布：下一任美联储主席的遴选程序已正式启动。这并非寻常的人事变动，而是一场蓄谋已久的权力博弈。现任主席鲍威尔，这位坚持独立决策 的"倔老头"，正面临前所未有的压力。特朗普政府步步紧逼，目的直白——换上一个听话的"自己人"，来执行总统梦寐以求的降息命令。然而， 摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙在同日发出警告，强调美联储的独立性是"绝对关键"的基石。这场"逼宫"大戏，不仅关乎鲍威尔的去留，更牵动着全球 经济的神经。 回看过去几个月，特朗普对鲍威尔的攻击早已升级为一场公开拉锯战。鲍威尔的任期将在2026年5月结束，但他坚持不向政治压力低头。去年， 美联储累计降息100个基点，试图缓解经济压力；但进入2025年，鲍威尔却"踩了刹车"，连续4个月将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.5%的高位不 变。这让特朗普怒火中烧。7月10日，白宫管理和预算办公室主任沃特在社交媒体上发难，指责美联储大楼翻修工程"严重超支"，试图用"盖楼 门"丑化鲍威尔的形象。紧接着，7月14日，特朗普在白宫咆哮："我们的美联储主席 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $3280 per ounce, with an increase of over 1.5% during the day amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade outlooks [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, despite President Trump's pressure for rate cuts, with expectations for two rate cuts later in the year [3] - The decline in the U.S. credit rating has further weakened the credibility of the dollar, which has already been affected by fluctuating tariff policies from Washington [3] Group 2 - A bullish trend line has been established from the low of 3120 to recent lows, with current gold prices around 3280 showing resistance to further upward movement [5] - The trading strategy suggests waiting for a pullback to around 3263 to enter long positions, with key resistance levels at 3285 and 3300, and a final target of 3318 [5] - Short-term upward breaks do not confirm a trend reversal; a break above 3500 to 3440 is needed to establish a longer-term bullish trend [5]

智通财经APP获悉，法国财政部长隆巴德(Eric Lombard)警告称，如果美国总统特朗普解雇美联储主席 鲍威，这将危及美元的信誉并破坏美国经济的稳定。隆巴德在接受采访时表示："特朗普在关税问题上 的激进举措损害了美元的信誉。如果鲍威尔被赶下台，随着债券市场的发展，这种信誉将受到更大的损 害。"他表示，结果将是债务偿还成本更高、国家经济严重混乱。他还补充称，这些后果迟早会促使美 国进行谈判，以结束紧张局势。 美联储前主席本·伯南克曾警告称："政治干预货币政策可能会产生不良的繁荣-萧条周期，最终导致经 济不稳定和通胀上升。"布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)高级研究员Sarah Binder也指出："美联储需 要公众信心。但如果总统试图让鲍威尔下台，那只会增加不确定性。"Schwab金融研究中心首席固定收 益策略师Kathy Jones则告诫称，试图解雇鲍威尔可能会加剧对美国国债和美元的抛售。 特朗普身边的人似乎也了解市场对美联储独立性受到侵蚀的担忧。据知情人士透露，特朗普曾与前美联 储理事凯文·沃尔什讨论过在鲍威尔任期结束前将其解职的可能性，并考虑由沃尔什接任美联储主席一 职。然而， ...